C4.07: Using models to help shape sustainable coasts - Beth Fulton

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Australia sees itself as the coastal nation and the world is following suite, with more than three quarters to the global population projected to live within coastal zones by mid century. As the point where land and sea meet coasts represent a rich diversity of environment types, livelihoods, opportunities and conflicting objectives. Models a one means of navigating through the situation, bringing together information in a consistent framework and helping people visualise what alternative futures may contain. The diversity of modelling tools available has grown in sophistication over the last 30 years, growing to encompass consideration of ecosystem and human dimensions of the coastal zone. Drawing on examples from Australia and around the world this discussion will show that while there is plenty of scope for future development, modelling approaches have matured to a point that they provide a tailorable toolbox of approaches that can get beyond impact modelling to address the socioecological and operational challenges involved in finding pragmatic sustainable options for coastal zone development and management.

Environment

Using models to help shape
sustainable coasts
Beth Fulton
2015
CSIRO Oceans & ATMOSPHERE Flagship
Photo: Surf coast shire

Humans - The Coastal Species
Using models to help shape sustainable coasts | Beth Fulton | Page 2
2%
Map: ABS

Humans - The Coastal Species
Using models to help shape sustainable coasts | Beth Fulton | Page 3
Map: http://studiosimpel.nl/map/hiresmap.png

Humans - Coastal Species
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 4
Map: http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/
New YorkLos Angeles
Lima
Buenos Aires
Rio de Janeiro
Istanbul
Lagos
Karachi
Mumbai
Madras
Calcutta
Jakarta
Bangkok
Osaka
SeoulTianjin
Dhaka
Manila
Shanghai
Tokyo
Mega-cities

Humans - The Coastal Species
Using models to help shape sustainable coasts | Beth Fulton | Page 5
45% 75%

Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 6
Crowded space

Multiple & clashing objectives
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 7

Helping find desirable futures
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 8

Evolution of modelling
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 9
 0D 3D
 Finer scales
 More
- processes
- habitats
- species
(& trophic
levels)

Evolution of modelling
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 10

CORSA
External demand
Imports
Domestic demand
Inter-sectoral
demand
Employment
Income
Socio-economic
land demand
Land Use
Industry
activities
Food web
Habitats
Climate
Population
Migration
C Pool
C Market
Infrastructure
Zoning
Ecosystem state
Physical environment
Suitability
Use map

Tour Boats
Tourists
Residents
Fish schools
Finally resolved (GPS & individuals)

Socioecological models
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 13
&
EXPERIENCE

Don’t forget the humans
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 14
Air temperature Sea level
Due to the human bits
Plot: Yin (2015) NCC

Data… Data… Data…
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 15

Wrapping Up
a. Crowded coastal space
b. Multiple conflicting objectives
c. Synthesising information and providing options
d. From (operational) biophysical to (strategic)
socioecological
e. Human role important so don’t forget (or chop) them
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 16

Thank you
CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere
Beth Fulton
t +61 3 6232 5018
E beth.fulton@csiro.au
w http://atlantis.cmar.csiro.au/
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric

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C4.03: International Coastal Atlas Network (ICAN) – Global Expertise in Coast...

Blue Planet Symposium

Surface waters are generally viewed as a hydrologic continuum, flowing from inland water sources through estuaries to the open oceans. The GEO Working Group on Earth Observations of Inland and Near-Coastal Waters (WA-01-C4) has organised the Water Quality Summit in Geneva 20-22nd April 2015 with the aim of charting the future of earth observation and in situ measurements based global water quality monitoring and forecasting systems. The relationship to GEO Blue Planet lies in the coastal zone. There is a crucial need for timely, accurate, and widespread assessment and monitoring and forecasting of inland and near-coastal water quality. However, existing measurement and forecasting capabilities have significant logistical, technical, and economic challenges and constraints, impacting both developed and developing nations. This summit was endorsed by GEO as a part of the water quality task (WA-01-C4) and the GEOSS Water Strategy with the mission to deliver, on a routine and sustained basis, timely, consistent, accurate and fit-for -purpose water quality data products and information to support water resource management and decision making in coastal and inland waters. The Summit goal is to define specific requirements of the water quality system components and develop a plan to implement integrated global end-to-end water quality monitoring and forecasting service. We present the results of this meeting: Development of a strategic implementation and a phased action plan including baseline and threshold service build-outs, with both a short-term and a long-term plan for a global-scale water quality monitoring and forecasting service. Some feedback will be given on the CEOS–GEOSS Water Strategy Implementation plan as well as other international related activities.

C4.02: Development of an Integrated Global Water Quality Monitoring and Forec...

Blue Planet Symposium

The Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Oceans and Society Coastal Ocean Pilot Project for the Caribbean Region is a response to the need for a Pilot Project to demonstrate the added value of an end-to-end System of Systems for Ecosystem-Based Approaches for monitoring and managing the coastal zone (GEO 2012 – 2015 Work Plan, SB-01-C4-02 [1]). The Pilot Project design will be based on principles established by the Group on Earth Observations “Oceans and Society: Blue Planet [2]” task and developed in collaboration with the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) Regional Alliance (GRA) for the Caribbean, IOCARIBE-GOOS [3]. It will incorporate concepts and recommendations from GOOS Pub. 193, Requirements for Global Implementation of the Strategic Plan for Coastal GOOS [4], and will be tailored to provide meaningful and sustainable value for Caribbean Region marine ecosystems and the populations they impact. The Design document will be developed in increasingly detailed stages, with distribution, review, and comment at each stage, leading to a final Design Plan, at which time we will seek approval to move ahead with GEO support for implementation planning and financing.

C4.04: Design of a GEO Coastal Ocean Pilot Project for the Caribbean Region -...

Blue Planet Symposium

C4.01: Overview of the Coastal Zone Community of Practice & Services for the ...

Blue Planet Symposium

Under GODAE OceanView the operational ocean modelling community has developed a suite of global ocean forecast, reanalysis and analysis systems. Each system has a critical dependence on ocean observations – routinely assimilating observations of in-situ temperature and salinity, and satellite sea-level anomaly and sea surface temperature. Under GODAE OceanView (GOV), the Observing System Evaluation Task Team (https://www.godae-oceanview.org/science/task-teams/observing-system-evaluation-tt-oseval-tt/) regularly coordinates analyses from the GOV community to demonstration the value and impact of ocean observations on different global and regional data-assimilating forecast and reanalysis systems. Highlights of the latest suite of demonstrations will be presented here. Results show that Argo data are critically important – the most critical for seasonal prediction, and as critical as satellite altimetry for eddy-resolving applications. Most systems show that TAO data are as important as Argo in the tropical Pacific, and that XBT data have an impact that is comparable to other data types in the vicinity of XBT transects. It is clear that no currently available data type is redundant. On the contrary, the components of the global ocean observing system complement each other remarkably well, providing sufficient information to monitor and forecast the global ocean.

C3.04: Assessing the impact of observations on ocean forecasts and reanalyses...

Blue Planet Symposium

The Republic of the Marshall Islands has been experiencing coastal inundation events, primarily during spring tides, that have caused serious problems for the population and their environment. Marshall Islands is a low lying atoll in the Pacific that is on average only two metres above sea level. We have identified several factors that contribute to coastal inundation in Marshall Islands based on research done in collaboration with the Weather Forecast Offices in Guam and Honolulu, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We found that the combination of the swell waves coming from the northern Pacific at the time of a spring tide can cause inundations. These swell waves are formed both in the northern hemisphere extra-tropical storm belt, and by northeasterly trade winds. The highest astronomical tides in the Marshall Islands occur between December and March. Due to concern about the impacts from recent events, inundation is one of the climate risks that the Weather Service Office in Marshall Islands is monitoring as a priority in collaboration with the National Disaster Committee. The first inundation event that caused serious problems for the people in the Marshall Islands occurred on March 3, 2014, followed by an inundation event on December 20 of the same year. These events caused erosion, flooding, damage to homes, and other problems to the environment upon which people depend. The most recent inundation event occurred on January 19, 2015. The most severe impacts occur on the main islands of Majuro and Kwajalein. The Weather Service Office, in cooperation with the Weather Forecast Offices in Guam and Honolulu and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, is working closely to monitor waves during spring tides to provide early warning in order to reduce the risks and impacts of these wave events. Different models are used to predict the swell waves and the winds that combine together to cause inundations. Nearby offshore swell waves, with a significant wave height of at least 4 metres, are likely to cause inundation when they coincide with spring tides between December and March.

C3.06: Early Warning of Inundation in the Marshall Islands - Nover Juria

Blue Planet Symposium

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