Can digital data help predict the outcome of an election?

1. Can digital data help
predict the results of the
US elections?

2. What are voters searching for?
Av. monthly searches over the past 12
months (US only)
Av. monthly searches over the past 12
months (US only)
Search terms Av. monthly
searches
Hilary Clinton 1M-10M
Hilary Clinton
scandals
10K-100K
Hilary Clinton
views
1k-10K
Who is Hilary
Clinton
1K-10K
Hilary Clinton past 100-1K
Search terms Av. monthly
searches
Donald Trump Jn. 100K-1M
Donald Trump wife 10K-100K
Donald Trump
bankruptcy
10K-100K
Donald Trump hair 10K-100K
Who is Donald
Trump
10-100K
• Internet users were found to commonly search for information about the Presidential
candidates’ pasts… For Clinton search terms included scandal and ‘past’, whilst others
searched for information about Trump’s bankruptcy
Source: Google Keyword Planner

3. Trump vs. Clinton site performance
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16
Clinton (hillaryclinton.com) Trump (donaldjtrump.com)
Clinton Trump
Total
traffic
14.6M 12.40M
Av.
Duration
2.08 1.40
Pages per
visit
2.13 2
US traffic 81.34% 85.82%
Site performance
Overall traffic volumes: Trump vs. Clinton
(April 2016 – September 2016)
• Clinton’s campaign website has received higher traffic levels than Trump’s overall,
and has received higher levels of engagement.
• Trump has however received higher volumes of visitors from the US than Clinton
• Overall winner: Clinton
Source: Similarweb

4. Traffic sources
Traffic sources
(April 2016 – September 2016)
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
Direct Referrals Search Social Mail Display
Clinton (hillaryclinton.com) Trump (donaldjtrump.com)
• In terms of traffic sources, Clinton has a much more even marketing mix than
Trump , performing well in terms of direct traffic and social referrals…
• Overall winner: Clinton
Source: Similarweb

5. Traffic sources: social
Social sources
(April 2016 – September 2016)
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
Facebook Reddit Twitter YouTube
Clinton (hillaryclinton.com) Trump (donaldjtrump.com)
• Clinton also received an impressive 26.36% of her overall traffic from social media
sites; this means that users are cognitively engaging with her content, despite
having a smaller social footprint than Trump
• Overall winner: Clinton (however Trump in terms of reach)
Clinton Trump
Twitter 10.1M 12.9M
Facebook 7.7M 11.9M
Social footprint
Source: Similarweb

6. Overall volume of mentions
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
Clinton Trump
• Trump dwarves Clinton in terms of volume of mentions with an incredible 139,264,698
mentions vs. 51,129,198 mentions for Clinton. Negative sentiment remains higher for
Trump than Clinton
• The increase in volume for Clinton in July 2016 and October 2016 is linked to the FBI
investigation into her email server…
* Conversations mentioning Trump or Clinton were analysed between 1st April 2016 – 22nd
October 2016, in the USA only
Clinton Trump
Total
convs
51M 139M
Positive 9% 13%
Neutral 68% 57%
Negative 24% 30%

7. Clinton mentions over time
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
4/1/16 5/1/16 6/1/16 7/1/16 8/1/16 9/1/16 10/1/16
• Daily peaks in conversations in October are linked to a general increase in news stories
as opposed to a specific event /news story
* Conversations mentioning Clinton were analysed between 1st April 2016 – 22nd October
2016, in the USA only using BrandWatch

8. Trump mentions over time
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
4/1/16 5/1/16 6/1/16 7/1/16 8/1/16 9/1/16 10/1/16
• Daily peaks in conversations in October are linked to a general increase in news stories
as opposed to a specific event /news story
* Conversations mentioning Trump were analysed between 1st April 2016 – 22nd October
2016, in the USA only using BrandWatch

9. Emotions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Joy Sadness Disgust Anger Surprise Fear
Clinton
Trump
* Conversations mentioning Trump or Clinton analysed between 1st April 2016 – 22nd
October 2016, in the USA only using BrandWatch
• Both candidates inspire positive and negative emotions; Clinton scored higher than
Trump in terms of disgust, whilst Trump scored higher in terms of fear…

10. What do voters think of either
candidates winning?
% sentiment around Clinton winning the
elections
• Overall, 517,969 conversations mentioned Hillary Clinton winning the US election*
• Of these conversation 18% were positive and 19% negative
• Trump however received 2, 369, 451 conversations mentioning a potential win*
• However the sentiment around Trump winning is largely negative (47%)…
• Overall winner: Clinton
18
19
62
Positive
Negative
Neutral
% sentiment around Trump winning the
elections
26
47
27
Positive
Negative
Neutral
* Conversations mentioning Trump or Clinton winning were analysed between 1st April
2016 – 22nd October 2016, in the USA only using BrandWatch

11. Volume of conversations over time
discussing each candidate winning
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
Trump
Clinton
• The amount of conversations related to Trump winning doubled in October vs.
previous month…
• However, as previously noted, sentiment for Trump remains largely negative…
• Conversations mentioning Trump or Clinton winning were analysed between 1st April
2016 – 22nd October 2016, in the USA only using BrandWatch

12. Volume of public support
* Conversations mentioning Vote for Trump or Clinton including campaign hashtags and
multiple variants were analysed between 1st April 2016 – 22nd October 2016, in the USA
only using BrandWatch
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
4/1/16 5/1/16 6/1/16 7/1/16 8/1/16 9/1/16 10/1/16
Clinton Trump
• Trump has received a larger volume of public support (2,279,681 mentions) than
Hillary, (1,274,546 mentions) during period. However this could be down to the fact
Trump supporters tend to be more vocal…
• Overall winner: Trump

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