1.
Brasileia, Acre
Feb 2015
ASCOM/Acre
Changing water and fire cycles
in Southwestern Amazonia
FOSTER BROWN
WHRC/UFAC/CMDD/SERVAMB/LBA
RESTORING WATER CYCLES TO
REVERSE GLOBAL WARMING
18 OCTOBER 2015
TUFTS UNIVERSITY
MEDFORD, MA, USA

2.
The Amazon is big – 6 million square
kilometers - but how big is that?
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/BlueMarble/Images/BlueMarble_2005_SAm_09_4096.png
Rio Branco
Manaus Belem
Lima

3.
The Amazon is
the size of the
continental US
and diverse.
Perhaps it helps
to talk about
the various
Amazons.
P. Lefevbre, WHRC

4.
One of those: The
Southwestern
Amazon where
Bolivia, Brazil, and
Peru meet –
the MAP Region,
the size of New
York, Pennsylvania,
New Jersey, and
Connecticut,
combined.
Rio Branco
Peru
Bolivia
Brazil
P. Lefevbre, WHRC

5.
MAP Region map
Acre, Brazil
Madre de Dios, Peru
Pando, Bolivia
The trinational MAP Region
CobijaIñapari
Brasileia
Beni
Puerto
Maldonado

6.
A land of climate extremes in the
last ten years 2005-2015
 Severe droughts and forest fires: 2005 and 2010
 Flooding: State of Emergency in Rio Branco:
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, the last
seven years.
 Flooding in Madeira River in 2014: reduced truck
traffic by 90% during two months.
 Heat wave in 2015: July-August-September 30+
days with peak temperatures above 35º C (95º
F) in Rio Branco, Acre.

7.
2005 and 2010: two ´one-in-a-century´ droughts
with epicenters in southwestern Amazonia.
2005 2010

8.
In 2005, the prolonged drought
changed the forests from fire
barriers to kindling.
 Results for old-growth rainforests with canopy-damage:
 1. Acre, Brazil - more than 3,000 square kilometers
 2. Pando, Bolivia - more than 1,000 square kilometers
 3. Madre de Dios, Peru more than 200 square kilometers
 Extensive fires in pastures, agricultural lands and agroforestry
systems

9.
Noon, Acrelândia, Acre 17Sep05
Fire propagating within the forest

10.
Example of what happened in 2005, 27Sep05
>1 km
No access
How to fight these fires?

11.
o
5Oct05
Near Xapuri, Acre
A forest with its canopy affected by fire

12.
Xapuri, Acre 21Aug05
Before fire propagated into the forest
5 km
Xapuri
CBERS_180_112
UFAC/PZ/SETEM/WHRC
30out05

13.
After propagation, Xapuri, Acre 12Oct05
5 kmXapuri
CBERS_180_112
UFAC/PZ/SETEM/WHRC
30out05

14.
Eastern Acre, Oct 2005: >
300,000 ha of forests
impacted by fires.
Rio Branco
Xapuri

15.
These fires can last for weeks and produce their own fuel.
Triunfo, Plácido de Castro, Acre, 09Sep06.

16.
Forest ready for a
second fire.
Acrelândia, Acre. 17Sep05

17.
Hot coals can last for days/weeks in
tree truncks

18.
Smoke concentrations in late September 2005 >> 25 ug m-3
MAP Region
Smoke
20Sept05

19.
Lessons from 2005 and past droughts
for fire cycles
 2-3 months without significant rain can allow forest fires
to advance into old-growth rainforests.
 This time is apparently becoming shorter due to higher
temperatures.
 The 1925-26 drought lasted for 7-8 months in Acre. A
repeat would be disastrous with the greater number of
ignition points set by slash-and-burn agriculturalists and
cattle ranchers.
 We need to change human behavior in relation to fire
during prolonged droughts or face wide-spread forest
fires in southwestern Amazonia.

20.
Photo: Sergio Vale
28mar14
BR-364, Rondonia, Brazil
And then there were floods.
THE MAJOR HIGHWAY, BR-364, CONNECTING THE
MAP REGION AND SOUTHERN BRAZIL IN 2014

21.
In the last seven years, Rio Branco has
declared states of emergency in every one
of them for flooding.
But the most dramatic have been in 2012
and 2015.
2015 was a repeat of 2012, but on steroids.

22.
Flood in Iñapari, Madre de Dios, Peru, 16 Feb 2012.
The headwaters of the Acre River.
Iñapari, 17:25, 16feb12
Via Mercedes Perales.

23.
Mayor’s office , Iñapari, 18feb12

24.
Cobija, Pando, Bolivia – fev12
Foto A. Lima

25.
Rio Branco, fev12.
Foto: Sergio Vale

26.
Impact in Brasileia, Acre. 2012
Foto: Carlos Portela

27.
A Gazeta, 28fev12.
“Acre faces its worst natural disaster in its history”, declares
[Senator] Jorge Viana. That was in 2012, it got worse in
2015.
Paradigm shift from building to rebuilding/recovery.

28.
This the second floor of a house in Brasileia, Acre. 24feb15

29.
Marcus Alexandre, Mayor of Rio Branco on 28 Mar13: “We
haven’t recovered from last year’s flooding and now with have
another.” = loss of Resilience
After the flood of 2015 – “it will take 5 years to recover.” (but it
floods every year.)

30.
Then in 2014, the flooding of the
Madeira River isolated the MAP
Region from southern Brazil for two
months.

31.
Where did the wáter come from?
Puerto Maldonado, Peru upstream Madre de Dios
River – Worst flooding in 50 years. 6fev14.

32.
Rains in the Beni, Bolivia. Loss of 100+
thousand head of cattle.
http://www.eldeber.com.bo/EL-DEBER-Rural/edr.php?id=140224002108

33.
http://www.erbol.com.bo/noticia/economia/06032014/290_mil_cabezas_de_ganado_mueren
_por_lluvias_e_inundaciones_en_el_beni
Beni, Bolivia

34.
http://maisro.com.br/por-questoes-politicas-midia-brasileira-ignora-
tragedia-climatica-na-bolivia/
Beni, Bolivia – This water drained into the Madeira River

35.
Highway Br-364 in late march 2014
Carretera BR-364 Rondonia
www.jorgeviana.com.br 19mar14

36.
Reduction of transportation up to 90%
Sergio Vale, ASCOM-AC, mar14

37.
Things are serious when it is necessary to
ration beans.
Supermercado Mesquita, Conj. Tucumã, RB. 13Apr14.

38.
We have a lot of problems in the
MAP Region related to climate
already and more on the way.

39.
Proliferating dams in
SW Amazonia:
150 planned dams of
>2 MW over next 20
years.
Finer, Matt, and Clinton N. Jenkins. “Proliferation of Hydroelectric
Dams in the Andean Amazon and Implications for Andes-
Amazon Connectivity.” PLOS ONE 7, no. 4 (April 18, 2012).
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0035126.
Rio
Branco

40.
Nature 502, no. 7470 (October 10, 2013):
183–187.
…”Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given
location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under
alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical
period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air
temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a
‘business-as-usual’ scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and
among low-income countries,…”
http://www.soc.hawaii.edu/mora/PublicationsCopyRighted/Data.html

41.
Rio Branco: departure date: 2019-2024
or 5 to 10 years.
The MAP Region has departure dates
for a ‘new climate’ in a few years.

42.
Acre and the MAP Region will become
a Amazonian epicenter for climate
change and impacts
ANOTHER METAPHOR:
ACRE AS THE CANARY IN THE
AMAZONIAN CLIMATE MINE.
http://www.academia.dk/Blog/a-canary-in-a-coal-mine-in-
the-19th-century-and/

43.
Abstract submitted to AGU Session on Extreme events
in Amazonia: how to adapt and mitigate –
December 205, San Francisco, CA, USA
 The Challenges from Extreme Climate Events for
Sustainable Development in Amazonia: the Acre
State Experience
 Dra. Maria de Nazareth Araújo Lambert, Vice-Governor, State of Acre
 ”… For the last 17 years, successive state administrations have been
implementing a socio-environmental model of development that strives to link
sustainable economic production with environmental conservation, particularly
for small communities. In this context, extreme climate events have interfered
significantly with this model, increasing the risks of failure. …”

44.
A little side track into philosophy
and framing.

45.
Problemology and Solutionology
 My training and its underlying paradigms
are in problemology – defining the
problem.
 It is an essential step, but an incomplete
one. Society wants solutions.
 Nevertheless, how you define problems
affects how you look for solutions.

46.
https://www.google.com/search?q=paradigm&oq=pa&aqs=chrome.0.69i59l2j69i60j69i61j69i60j69i57.9386j0j4&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=93&ie=UTF-8
synonyms:
model, (…) prototype, archetype
"why should your sets of values be the paradigm
for the rest of us?"
par·a·digm
ˈperəˌdīm/
noun
1.1.
technical
a typical example or pattern of something; a model.

47.
http://consumercentric.biz/wordpress/?p=106
Paradigms are part of our world view. They are inventions of the human
mind. What paradigms do que need to change? What are enduring?
Note that the world didn´t change, only the chick´s perception of it.

48.
Central to this Conference:
restoration of small water cycles
and climate – a paradigm shift.

49.
A phrase attributed to G.E.
Hutchinson by Tom Lovejoy:
“What is right about this paper?”
And what applies to the Amazon?

50.
Circulation of water over the Amazon.

51.
Arraut et al. 2011. Aerial Rivers and
Lakes: looking at large scale moisture
transport, its relation to Amazonia and
to Subtropical Rainfall in South
America. Journal of Climate.

52.
Biotic Pump Concept – Submitted to
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
in 2010, published in 2013.

53.
But not without controversy – a rare
editor comment published with the
paper.
see http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/24015/2010/acpd-10-24015-2010-
discussion.html
 Editor Comment. The authors have presented an entirely new view
of what may be driving dynamics in the atmosphere. This new
theory has been subject to considerable criticism … (3) The handling
editor (and the executive committee) concluded to allow final
publication of the manuscript in ACP, in order to facilitate further
development of the presented arguments, which may lead to
disproof or validation by the scientific community.

54.
14 March 2005 GOES Image
www.cptec.inpe.br
54

55.
Dry season: pasture lower evapotranspiration
than the forests
05out05
Leste do Acre
Water vapor from forest
Water vapor from pasture
55

56.
Regional climate change where rains are reduced by
deforestation. Maintain forests is to maintain
evapotranspiration, an ecosystem service.
Mainstream science, but not incorporated in Brazilian public
policy.
SCIENCE 2008
2050
tendencial
2050
Leis

57.
Is this already occurring?
 Increased flow from the Araguaia River 25% in two
decades 80/89 a 90/99 - 2/3 due to deforestation
(note paradigm change)
2011 Biogeochemistry DOI 10.1007/s10533-011-9582-2

58.
A paradigm shift for Amazonia –
loss of forest = loss of rainfall = loss
of agricultural productivity.

59.
Other things are also changing.

60.
Current state of knowledge: don´t
deforest or you lose water.
But message is seeping in slowly to
policy makers and the public.
Biotic pump concept will take even
more time.

61.
Recently published
estimates of deforested
area in Amazonia.
http://raisg.socioambiental.org/deforestacion-en-
la-amazonia-1970-2013
 About 6 million square kilometers of forest
cover.
 Loss from 1970 to 2013: 13% of the forest, but
at an accelerating rate from 2000.
 In other words, most of the Amazon forest is still
there – a focus on preservation/conservation
 But what about restoration, is there a place in
the Amazon?

62.
A place for restoration? Yes!
13 percent of 6 million square kilometers is
780,000 km2, about the combined size of
California and Montana. And the area is
growing every year.

63.
An
example:
Eastern
Acre, Brazil.

64.
http://raisg.socioambiental.org/system/files/DEFORESTACION_AMAZONIA_capa.jpg
ACRE
Rio
Branco

65.
Eastern Acre, Brazil,
deforested area is
the size of
Connecticut.
http://raisg.socioambiental.org/system/files/DEFORES
TACION_AMAZONIA_capa.jpg
Rio
Branco

66.
Everything Should Be Made as Simple as
Possible, But Not Simpler. – Attributed to
Albert Einstein, but apparently simplified*.
A synonym for Holistic is complex.
For climate change there is no
 *Probably derived from: “It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make
the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the
adequate representation of a single datum of experience.” (1933, Herbert Spencer Lecture.

67.
71% of the Earth, the ocean, is already
hydrated.
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/research-of-andrew-wittenberg
Pacific
Ocean

68.
<16% -croplands, savannas, shrublands where
hydration of landscapes are possible (Loveland et
al. 2000)
361, 71%
79.46; 16%
66.4, 13%
Surface area of Earth in millions km2
oceans Crops/Sav Forests/ice
T. R. Loveland , B. C. Reed , J. F. Brown , D. O. Ohlen , Z.
Zhu , L. Yang & J. W. Merchant (2000) Development of a
global land cover characteristics database and IGBP
DISCover from 1 km AVHRR data, International Journal of
Remote Sensing, 21:6-7, 1303-1330, DOI:
10.1080/014311600210191

69.
The impact of terrestrial water storage
on sea-level rise 3.2 cm (1961-2003)
 …We find that, together, unsustainable groundwater use, artificial
reservoir water impoundment, climate-driven changes in terrestrial
water storage and the loss of water from closed basins have
contributed a sea-level rise of about 0.77 mm yr−1 between 1961 and
2003, about 42% of the observed sea-level rise. We note that, of
these components, the unsustainable use of groundwater represents
the largest contribution.
Pokhrel, Yadu N., Naota Hanasaki, Pat J-F. Yeh, Tomohito J. Yamada,
Shinjiro Kanae, and Taikan Oki. “Model Estimates of Sea-Level Change due
to Anthropogenic Impacts on Terrestrial Water Storage.” Nature Geosci 5,
no. 6 (June 2012): 389–92. doi:10.1038/ngeo1476.

70.
Who is doing holistic thinking
at a global scale?
Who could bring together
the links of a chain,
emissionaries, wáter cyclists,
etc.
A former bouncer once
known as Jorge Bergoglio
has come up with
something.
O Pensador, Rodin
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Thinker

71.
Paragraph 3. “Now, faced as we are with global environmental
deterioration, I wish to address every person living on this planet… In this
Encyclical, I would like to enter into dialogue with all people about our
common home.“
I am not Catholic, but felt included.

72.
We need to join the links, Pope
Francis says:
14. I urgently appeal, then, for a new dialogue about how we are shaping the
future of our planet. We need a conversation which includes everyone, since the
environmental challenge we are undergoing, and its human roots, concern and
affect us all.
…Regrettably, many efforts to seek concrete solutions to the environmental crisis
have proved ineffective, not only because of powerful opposition but also
because of a more general lack of interest.
…We require a new and universal solidarity.
…All of us can cooperate as instruments of God for the care of creation, each
according to his or her own culture, experience, involvements and talents.

73.
The most important links in the chain are
not the strongest ones, but the ones that
are missing or weak.
What ones are lacking for climate
change and rehydrating landscapes?
http://www.csp.org.uk/frontline/article/missing-links-cancer-rehabilitation-strategy-
overhauled-england

74.
Conclusions and ruminations
 The Amazon basin is big, diverse, and with growing extreme climate
events.
 As a consequence, the Amazon is in both the preservation and
restoration stages.
 Paradigm shifts are occurring that change the framing of problems
and solutions.
 Water is better than carbon to mobilize local and regional efforts to
address climate change.
 Small water cycle paradigm is critical, but can create expectations
of a silver bullet, it is part of a bigger effort.
 Big problems need big ideas for solutions: Laudato Si – an example.

75.
We are together on this journey.
Foster Brown
WHRC/UFAC/CMDD/LBA
fbrown@uol.com.br
Tele: 55-68-9984-0336
Going up Envira River
Feijo, Acre
08mai11