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A Research Service By Business Insider
PLANET
Basically, Google is swallowing the world…
Source: Google, 2014 Is An Estimate
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
Billions
Google Global Annual Revenue
Google is now bigger than all newspapers, magazines
Source: Google, NAA, PIB
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Millions
Google vs. Magazine vs. Newspaper Ad Revenue,
US Data, 2004-2013
Google (US) US Magazines US Newspapers
Google dwarfs “big media”
Source: Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates
$30
$18
$16
$14
$5 $5
$3 $2
$70
Time
Warner
Facebook CBS Viacom Gannett Yahoo AOL New York
Times
Google
Billions
Estimated 2014 Revenue
Select Media Companies
Google is almost half the size of all global TV advertising
$174
$70
Global TV Ad Revenue Google
Billions
Estimated 2014 Ad Revenue
Google vs. Global TV Ad Market
Source: Google, PWC
Google makes all other digital ad platforms “also rans”
Source: Company Filings Note: Based on GAAP revenue.
Google
Facebook
Yahoo
AOL
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
Billions
Digital Advertising Revenues (Global)
Google’s Chrome browser is crushing Firefox and IE
Source: StatCounter
Other
Safari
Firefox
Internet Explorer
Chrome
Opera
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Global Web Browser Usage Share
Google’s Android has peak-Windows-like market share
Source: IDC, Strategy Analytics, BI Intelligence estimates
Android
iOS
Microsoft
BlackBerry
Other
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14
ShareofGlobalUnitShipments
Global Smartphone Market Share By Platform
Google
93%
Bing
3%
Yahoo
2%
Other
2% Europe Search Market Share
Oct. 2014
In Europe, Google has peak-Windows-like search share
Source: StatCounter
And people are noticing!
Source: StatCounter
(For Microsoft, DOJ attack was the beginning of the end)
Source: StatCounter
Almost all of Google’s revenue still comes from ads
Source: Google
$10.86
$12.52
$15
$0.67
$1.23
$1.84
$0
$3
$6
$9
$12
$15
$18
Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14
Billions
Google Revenue By Source
Advertising Other
Mostly search, lots of display, some video…
Source: Google, BI Intelligence estimates
Search
Total Advertising
$-
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
$16,000
Q1
10
Q3
10
Q1
11
Q3
11
Q1
12
Q3
12
Q1
13
Q3
13
Q1
14
Q3
14
Billions
Google Advertising Revenue (Global)
Search clicks still growing fast but now decelerating
Source: Google
20%
23%
26%
31%
26%
25%
17%
Q1 13 Q3 13 Q1 14 Q3 14
Google Paid Clicks Growth
Global, Year-Over-Year
US desktop search queries are now shrinking
Source: comScore Note: Explicit user initiated search queries only.
10%
12%
14%
10%
7%
4%
0%
-3%
-5%
-7% -8% -7% -7%
Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14
Total Monthly Search Query Growth
U.S., Year-Over-Year; Desktop Only
But Google utterly dominates mobile search
Source: RKG
Bing
5.6%
Yahoo
8.4%
Google
85.6%
Other
0.3%
Share Of Mobile
Organic Search Visits
US, Q3 2014
Remember when Google bought revenue-less YouTube?
Source: RKG
Now, YouTube dominates digital video
Source: comScore
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14
Millions
Unique Video Viewers
(US) Desktop Only
Google Sites
(YouTube)
Facebook
AOL
Yahoo Sites
YouTube also dominates digital video ads
Source: Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates
YouTube
Tremor
YuMe
TubeMogul
$0
$250
$500
$750
$1,000
$1,250
$1,500
$1,750
Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014
RevenueInMillions
Global Digital Video Advertising Revenue
(Select Companies)
YouTube is closing in on broadcast-network revenue
Source: News Reports, Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates
$-
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Millions
YouTube Ad Revenue vs. Network Ad Revenue
CBS
YouTube
AMC Network
YouTube is even becoming meaningful to Google’s revenue!
Source: BI Intelligence estimates, Credit Suisse Note: Google does not break out revenues for its specific services.
Search Advertising And
Other Revenue
84%
YouTube
9%
Play
7% FORECAST:
Google Revenue Share
2014 (Global)
Remember when Android was a little science project?
Source: Google
Now Android is the dominant global device platform
Source: Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analytics, Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates
Android
Windows
Apple
BlackBerry
Other
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14
Global Computing Platform Market Share
Android fragmentation is becoming less of a problem
Source: Google
Froyo
Gingerbread
Ice Cream Sandwich
Jelly Bean
Kit Kat
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
9/15/12 12/15/12 3/15/13 6/15/13 9/15/13 12/15/13 3/15/14 6/15/14 9/15/14
Jelly Bean And Kit Kat Are Now ~80% Of Android
Android surpassed iOS mobile traffic this year
Source: Net Applications, August 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14
Global Mobile Platform Traffic Share
iOS
Android
Java ME
Symbian
Windows Phone
Other
Android users now consume more ads than Apple users
Source: Opera Mediaworks
Android
iOS
BlackBerry
Symbian
Other
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14
ShareOfTraffic Global Mobile Ad Traffic Share By Platform
Android users are even catching up to Apple in eCommerce
Source: Monetate
$167
$109
$127 $129
$120
$107
2.5%
2.1%
1.6%
0.9%
0.7%
0.6%
0%
2%
4%
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
iPad Android Tablet Kindle Fire iPhone Android Phone Windows Phone
Android Catching Up To Apple In E-Commerce
Average Order Value
Conversion Rate
Tablets Phones
Google’s apps are now among the most-used
Source: comScore; September 2014, Age 18+, US Data
73%
53%
46% 44% 44% 42% 41%
38%
29% 28% 25% 25%
22% 22% 20%
Top 15 Apps By Percent Reach Of Mobile App Users
Google Play is catching up to Apple’s App Store in revenue
Source: App Annie, Jana, BI Intelligence estimates
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Billions Estimated App Revenue
Apple App Store
Google Play
Google Play is paying out more and more to developers
Source: App Annie, Jana, BI Intelligence estimates
Apple App Store
Google Play
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
Estimated App Developer Payout
Google Play will be ~7% of Google’s revenue this year
Source: BI Intelligence estimates, Credit Suisse Note: Google does not break out revenues for its specific services.
Search Advertising And
Other Revenue
84%
YouTube
9%
Play
7%
FORECAST:
Google Revenue Share
2014, Global
Google is so wildly successful that it’s
throwing money at the future…
Source: Google
Cute!
Source: Edudemic
(Some) connected cars will be a huge market
Source: SBD, GSMA
In-vehicle Services
Hardware
Telematics Service Providers
Telecom Service Providers
€ 0
€ 10,000
€ 20,000
€ 30,000
€ 40,000
2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
Millions
Connected Car Revenue Forecast
We Are Here
Smart glasses (If at first you don’t succeed…)
Source: Wikipedia
Smart contact lenses
Source: Google
(Some) wearables poised to grow rapidly
Source: BI Intelligence estimates
0
40
80
120
160
2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
MillionsOfUnitsShippedAnnually
Global Wearable Device Unit Shipments Forecast
Rest Of Wearables Market
Fitness Bands And Other Activity Trackers
Smartwatches
35% CAGR 2014-2019
We Are Here
Home snooping devices
Source: BI Intelligence estimates
Huge growth expected for Internet of Things
Businesses
Smart Cities
Connected
Home
-
5
10
15
20
25
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
BillionsofDevices
Estimated Number of Installed
IoT Devices by Sector
Source: BI Intelligence Estimates
Super-fast Internet
Source: The Atlantic
Drones and robot projects, like “Project Wing”
Source: The Atlantic
And balloons bringing Internet access to everyone!
Source: The Atlantic
Gain access to all BI Intelligence reports,
forecasts, charts, and data.
Click here to sign up for a trial membership.
intelligence.businessinsider.com
Henry Blodget
CEO & Editor-in-Chief
Emily Adler
Senior Research Editor
Marcelo Ballvé
Editorial Director
Cale Weissman
Reporter
Hope King
Reporter
Nicholas Quah
Research Associate
John Greenough
Research Analyst
Jessica Smith
Research Associate
Tony Danova
Senior Research Analyst
Mark Hoelzel
Research Analyst
John Heggestuen
Research Analyst
Cooper Smith
Senior Research Analyst
BI Intelligence
Thank You!
intelligence.businessinsider.com

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Planet Google 2014

  • 1. A Research Service By Business Insider PLANET
  • 2. Basically, Google is swallowing the world… Source: Google, 2014 Is An Estimate $- $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E Billions Google Global Annual Revenue
  • 3. Google is now bigger than all newspapers, magazines Source: Google, NAA, PIB $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Millions Google vs. Magazine vs. Newspaper Ad Revenue, US Data, 2004-2013 Google (US) US Magazines US Newspapers
  • 4. Google dwarfs “big media” Source: Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates $30 $18 $16 $14 $5 $5 $3 $2 $70 Time Warner Facebook CBS Viacom Gannett Yahoo AOL New York Times Google Billions Estimated 2014 Revenue Select Media Companies
  • 5. Google is almost half the size of all global TV advertising $174 $70 Global TV Ad Revenue Google Billions Estimated 2014 Ad Revenue Google vs. Global TV Ad Market Source: Google, PWC
  • 6. Google makes all other digital ad platforms “also rans” Source: Company Filings Note: Based on GAAP revenue. Google Facebook Yahoo AOL $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 Billions Digital Advertising Revenues (Global)
  • 7. Google’s Chrome browser is crushing Firefox and IE Source: StatCounter Other Safari Firefox Internet Explorer Chrome Opera 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Global Web Browser Usage Share
  • 8. Google’s Android has peak-Windows-like market share Source: IDC, Strategy Analytics, BI Intelligence estimates Android iOS Microsoft BlackBerry Other 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 ShareofGlobalUnitShipments Global Smartphone Market Share By Platform
  • 9. Google 93% Bing 3% Yahoo 2% Other 2% Europe Search Market Share Oct. 2014 In Europe, Google has peak-Windows-like search share Source: StatCounter
  • 10. And people are noticing! Source: StatCounter
  • 11. (For Microsoft, DOJ attack was the beginning of the end) Source: StatCounter
  • 12. Almost all of Google’s revenue still comes from ads Source: Google $10.86 $12.52 $15 $0.67 $1.23 $1.84 $0 $3 $6 $9 $12 $15 $18 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Billions Google Revenue By Source Advertising Other
  • 13. Mostly search, lots of display, some video… Source: Google, BI Intelligence estimates Search Total Advertising $- $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 $16,000 Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12 Q3 12 Q1 13 Q3 13 Q1 14 Q3 14 Billions Google Advertising Revenue (Global)
  • 14. Search clicks still growing fast but now decelerating Source: Google 20% 23% 26% 31% 26% 25% 17% Q1 13 Q3 13 Q1 14 Q3 14 Google Paid Clicks Growth Global, Year-Over-Year
  • 15. US desktop search queries are now shrinking Source: comScore Note: Explicit user initiated search queries only. 10% 12% 14% 10% 7% 4% 0% -3% -5% -7% -8% -7% -7% Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Total Monthly Search Query Growth U.S., Year-Over-Year; Desktop Only
  • 16. But Google utterly dominates mobile search Source: RKG Bing 5.6% Yahoo 8.4% Google 85.6% Other 0.3% Share Of Mobile Organic Search Visits US, Q3 2014
  • 17. Remember when Google bought revenue-less YouTube? Source: RKG
  • 18. Now, YouTube dominates digital video Source: comScore 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Millions Unique Video Viewers (US) Desktop Only Google Sites (YouTube) Facebook AOL Yahoo Sites
  • 19. YouTube also dominates digital video ads Source: Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates YouTube Tremor YuMe TubeMogul $0 $250 $500 $750 $1,000 $1,250 $1,500 $1,750 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 RevenueInMillions Global Digital Video Advertising Revenue (Select Companies)
  • 20. YouTube is closing in on broadcast-network revenue Source: News Reports, Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates $- $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Millions YouTube Ad Revenue vs. Network Ad Revenue CBS YouTube AMC Network
  • 21. YouTube is even becoming meaningful to Google’s revenue! Source: BI Intelligence estimates, Credit Suisse Note: Google does not break out revenues for its specific services. Search Advertising And Other Revenue 84% YouTube 9% Play 7% FORECAST: Google Revenue Share 2014 (Global)
  • 22. Remember when Android was a little science project? Source: Google
  • 23. Now Android is the dominant global device platform Source: Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analytics, Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates Android Windows Apple BlackBerry Other 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 Global Computing Platform Market Share
  • 24. Android fragmentation is becoming less of a problem Source: Google Froyo Gingerbread Ice Cream Sandwich Jelly Bean Kit Kat 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 9/15/12 12/15/12 3/15/13 6/15/13 9/15/13 12/15/13 3/15/14 6/15/14 9/15/14 Jelly Bean And Kit Kat Are Now ~80% Of Android
  • 25. Android surpassed iOS mobile traffic this year Source: Net Applications, August 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Global Mobile Platform Traffic Share iOS Android Java ME Symbian Windows Phone Other
  • 26. Android users now consume more ads than Apple users Source: Opera Mediaworks Android iOS BlackBerry Symbian Other 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 ShareOfTraffic Global Mobile Ad Traffic Share By Platform
  • 27. Android users are even catching up to Apple in eCommerce Source: Monetate $167 $109 $127 $129 $120 $107 2.5% 2.1% 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0% 2% 4% $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 iPad Android Tablet Kindle Fire iPhone Android Phone Windows Phone Android Catching Up To Apple In E-Commerce Average Order Value Conversion Rate Tablets Phones
  • 28. Google’s apps are now among the most-used Source: comScore; September 2014, Age 18+, US Data 73% 53% 46% 44% 44% 42% 41% 38% 29% 28% 25% 25% 22% 22% 20% Top 15 Apps By Percent Reach Of Mobile App Users
  • 29. Google Play is catching up to Apple’s App Store in revenue Source: App Annie, Jana, BI Intelligence estimates $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Billions Estimated App Revenue Apple App Store Google Play
  • 30. Google Play is paying out more and more to developers Source: App Annie, Jana, BI Intelligence estimates Apple App Store Google Play $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 Estimated App Developer Payout
  • 31. Google Play will be ~7% of Google’s revenue this year Source: BI Intelligence estimates, Credit Suisse Note: Google does not break out revenues for its specific services. Search Advertising And Other Revenue 84% YouTube 9% Play 7% FORECAST: Google Revenue Share 2014, Global
  • 32. Google is so wildly successful that it’s throwing money at the future… Source: Google
  • 34. (Some) connected cars will be a huge market Source: SBD, GSMA In-vehicle Services Hardware Telematics Service Providers Telecom Service Providers € 0 € 10,000 € 20,000 € 30,000 € 40,000 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Millions Connected Car Revenue Forecast We Are Here
  • 35. Smart glasses (If at first you don’t succeed…) Source: Wikipedia
  • 37. (Some) wearables poised to grow rapidly Source: BI Intelligence estimates 0 40 80 120 160 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E MillionsOfUnitsShippedAnnually Global Wearable Device Unit Shipments Forecast Rest Of Wearables Market Fitness Bands And Other Activity Trackers Smartwatches 35% CAGR 2014-2019 We Are Here
  • 38. Home snooping devices Source: BI Intelligence estimates
  • 39. Huge growth expected for Internet of Things Businesses Smart Cities Connected Home - 5 10 15 20 25 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E BillionsofDevices Estimated Number of Installed IoT Devices by Sector Source: BI Intelligence Estimates
  • 41. Drones and robot projects, like “Project Wing” Source: The Atlantic
  • 42. And balloons bringing Internet access to everyone! Source: The Atlantic
  • 43. Gain access to all BI Intelligence reports, forecasts, charts, and data. Click here to sign up for a trial membership.
  • 44. intelligence.businessinsider.com Henry Blodget CEO & Editor-in-Chief Emily Adler Senior Research Editor Marcelo Ballvé Editorial Director Cale Weissman Reporter Hope King Reporter Nicholas Quah Research Associate John Greenough Research Analyst Jessica Smith Research Associate Tony Danova Senior Research Analyst Mark Hoelzel Research Analyst John Heggestuen Research Analyst Cooper Smith Senior Research Analyst BI Intelligence