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Marrying for the Money
The ROI of Relationships
SXSWi March, 2011


Jen van der Meer
Dachis Group
@jenvandermeer

#MROI
What youʼll need to get
ROI from our time together today:
1-2 Napkins
Felt tip pen
Basic math skills
At least one
relationship to
measure:
_Dog
_Friend
_Mom
_Customer
_Potential fiancée
I calculate ROI in my sleep




Wall St.   @jenvandermeer
ROI is under attack!




@mghoza                                             @ehuddleston

#e20 RT @andyjankowski: "What’s missing in          love it. Measure success through operational
most #social business attempts is a systematic      metrics that are meaningful to biz and focus
link to metrics that matter." @jbernoff #sbs2011    social ROI on exception mgmt @jhagel
                                                    #SBS2011

@tmuellernyc
                                                    @tstaley
We are at an inflection point, a social generation
                                                    ROI analysis for social software is a "fool's
replaces spreadsheet generation. @jobsworth,
                                                    errand" John Hagel #SBS2011
#SBS2011
Good news: you can measure the
ROI of ANY relationship




                 =    - 567%
4 Cases
Case study 1:
The rich husband
The stats upfront


Time frame: 2006
Job: Real estate lawyer
Education: Ivy undergrad, top law school
Prospects: Real estate developer
Current salary: $80,000 + 20k in bonus
Salary of fellow alumni:
$1 MM in combination of cash + bonus
Increasing 100% each year
Investment: fabulous wardrobe $100,000
Problem: ROI framework


Data that was needed at the start:

Length of relationship
Cash transaction amount per year
Profit per transaction
Understanding of stocks vs. flows
Cost of investment to initiate relationship
Length of relationship?




                    5 years
Revenue per year:

           $1MM    $1 MM
                                               1000


                                              750


                                              500
 $100k
                           $100k          250
  2006
            2007                   $10K
                   2008                   0
                           2009
                                   2010
  Salary            Cash Bonus
Profit per yearly transactions

           $900k   $900k
                                              900

                                              675

                                           450

                                           225
                                  $-90k   0
  2006
            2007                          -225
                   2008
                           2009
   Profit                          2010
Marriage lifetime value

                          Year 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
             Revenue               $100k    $1 MM    $1 MM        $100k        $10k

1 time acquisition cost   -$100k

         Costs x year              -$100k   -$100k   -$100k   -$100k         -$100k

         Profit x year                 $0 + $900k + $900k      +      $0 + $-90k


                                   $1.71 MM -   $100k = $1.61 MM
                                                                          = 11.1x
                                                          $100k
Successful relationship?



                   11.1 x
                   return
Case study 2:
Skippy
Skippy lives for 14 years

       $50 x 12 months x 14 years - $8,400



       $300 x 14 years            - $4,200



       $20 x 12 months x 14 years - $3,360

                              = - $15,960
Skippy ROI: the value of a dog

                     Initial cost: $2,000

                     Revenue: $0

                     Lifetime cost: $-15,960


  ROI = $15,960 - $2,000 = $-17,960
                                      = -898%
                            $2,000
ROI Conclusion:




                  <
What is the problem with measuring
the transactional cost of a
relationship?

What we value most are the
transactions that cannot be
measured. Immeasurable. Beyond
measure. Priceless.
Case study 3:
Value of a
Facebook fan
Value of a fan:
Vitrue: $3.60 (earned media)

Syncapse: $136.38 (layer cake of value)

Cost of a fan:
Webtrends: $1.07
The value of a fan:
Problem with value of a fan view



“Fans” who
                                    Customers
 donʼt buy
                 Fans and           who are not
  (haters,
                 customers            on FB
   totally
unqualified)



                             #ROIFAIL
Case Study 4:
Holistic customer
Life time value
Gas profits
Marketing Decision:
Gas customer lifetime value

                          Year 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
             Revenue               $1500    $1800    $2100         $2500      $3000

1 time acquisition cost    -$100

         Costs x year              -$1410   -$1692   -$1974     -$2350       -$2820

         Profit x year                 $90 + $108 + $126        +     $150 + $180


                                     $654    -   $100k   = $554
                                                                           = 5.5x
                                                              $100
ROI Conclusion:




         <        <
So we CAN measure the ROI of a
relationship.



But transactional value distorts the
purpose of why people are in
business. Why they become
customers.
“Your grandparents are far more
prepared for whatʼs coming than you
are. They understood the human
connection, small-town rules.

All of you who just worry about
metrics, numbers, roi, you're going to
die." - @garyvee
SO WHAT.

(do we measure).
Healthy relationship?

# and quality of:
hugs. kisses. pleasant surprises.
help around the house. positive
reinforcement. listening. mutual
support.
                    
                        



shared experiences?
Customer referral value
     LOYAL CUSTOMER                                            SOCIAL CUSTOMER



                                                                              receipt
                                                                              $100




        receipt                                receipt
        $200                                    $50


                                                                              receipt
                                                                               $50

                                                
     Higher Lifetime Value                          
                                                               Higher Referral Value


According to Kumar, Petersen, and Leone, your most valuable customers are those whose
word of mouth brings in the most profitable new customers, regardless of how much they
themselves buy.
Wall Street Secret Revealed:

Customer Lifetime Value is not
something that “the street” cares
about.

When CMOs and CTOs say ROI,
they really mean, “show me a pretty
                   
                       


dashboard.”
if you dream it...

what are the levers and behaviors tha
drive human connections between
people and organizations?
Dashboard: Social Program Health!
presence!                 conversion!                                                                                         advocacy!
size of tribe                                                        social contribution to media mix, revenue                brand community
                                     %        % weekly
#followers                                                   score   YTD Impressions   YTD CPO            YTD Revenue         YTD Impressions          YTD CPO            YTD Revenue
                                engaged         growth

3,544,215                     2.3%         +4.2%           49.5      55,542,222        $0.34              $42554,254          55,542,222               $0.34              $42554,254

                                                                     campaigns: social channels

                                                                     Facebook Campaign XYZ

                                                                     impressions           eng.           CTR          CPO

competitive tribes                                                   5,544,555         2.3%        .15%          .15




  total followers
                                              competitor 1

                                  client
                                                                     content performance
                             competitor 2
                                                                     Video ABC
                            engagement rate
                                                                                                                     WOM
                                                                     impressions        sharing.          CTR
                                                                                                                      CTR    1/5/02          1/6/02        1/7/02        1/8/02       1/9/02
sentiment analysis                              3 months avg.
                                                                     217,225           42.6%       .5%           .10%
                    comments and sentiment about brand
                                                                                                                              ambassador team

                                                                                                                              Interactions             Sampling Reach     Trial Conversion


                            based on 3.5 MM
                                                                                                                              10,998,877               2,444,546          43%
                               sentiments
                                                                                                                              Top ambassador events
brand tracking                                  3 months avg.        social contribution to site referrals (SEO?)

                                                                                                                 Twitter
                                                                       20
                                              Innovative               15
                                                                       10                                        Youtube
                                              Edgy
                                                                        5                                                     Lansing, MI             Oradell, NJ       SF, CA
                                              Pragmatic                 0                                        Facebook
                                                                                                                              U Mich                  Ambassador        Outside
                                              Out of touch                  May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
                                                                                                                              Sampling                Thank You         Lands
                                                                                                                              party                   event             Sponsorship
How far can we take this?

As the social graph reveals a huge volume of data
about our actual relational behavior, we have an
opportunity to pause for a moment: to consider
the value system reflected in how we measure
each other, ourselves, our relationships in the
world.
fitbit
Energy Hub
James Burke:
                       




Applying Analytics to Relationships
Analog analytics
In conclusion:

ROI can be measured.
But human connections are fluid,
dynamic, and worth more than
financial transactions alone.

To measure the health of a
relationship, define those actions of
                    
                        




reciprocity and advocacy.
thank you!
                 
                     




@jenvandermeer
Marrying for the money SXSW
Marrying for the money SXSW
Marrying for the money SXSW
Marrying for the money SXSW

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Marrying for the money SXSW

  • 1. Marrying for the Money The ROI of Relationships SXSWi March, 2011 Jen van der Meer Dachis Group @jenvandermeer #MROI
  • 2. What youʼll need to get ROI from our time together today: 1-2 Napkins Felt tip pen Basic math skills At least one relationship to measure: _Dog _Friend _Mom _Customer _Potential fiancée
  • 3. I calculate ROI in my sleep Wall St. @jenvandermeer
  • 4. ROI is under attack! @mghoza @ehuddleston #e20 RT @andyjankowski: "What’s missing in love it. Measure success through operational most #social business attempts is a systematic metrics that are meaningful to biz and focus link to metrics that matter." @jbernoff #sbs2011 social ROI on exception mgmt @jhagel #SBS2011 @tmuellernyc @tstaley We are at an inflection point, a social generation ROI analysis for social software is a "fool's replaces spreadsheet generation. @jobsworth, errand" John Hagel #SBS2011 #SBS2011
  • 5. Good news: you can measure the ROI of ANY relationship = - 567%
  • 7. Case study 1: The rich husband
  • 8. The stats upfront Time frame: 2006 Job: Real estate lawyer Education: Ivy undergrad, top law school Prospects: Real estate developer Current salary: $80,000 + 20k in bonus Salary of fellow alumni: $1 MM in combination of cash + bonus Increasing 100% each year Investment: fabulous wardrobe $100,000
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12. Problem: ROI framework Data that was needed at the start: Length of relationship Cash transaction amount per year Profit per transaction Understanding of stocks vs. flows Cost of investment to initiate relationship
  • 14. Revenue per year: $1MM $1 MM 1000 750 500 $100k $100k 250 2006 2007 $10K 2008 0 2009 2010 Salary Cash Bonus
  • 15. Profit per yearly transactions $900k $900k 900 675 450 225 $-90k 0 2006 2007 -225 2008 2009 Profit 2010
  • 16. Marriage lifetime value Year 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Revenue $100k $1 MM $1 MM $100k $10k 1 time acquisition cost -$100k Costs x year -$100k -$100k -$100k -$100k -$100k Profit x year $0 + $900k + $900k + $0 + $-90k $1.71 MM - $100k = $1.61 MM = 11.1x $100k
  • 17. Successful relationship? 11.1 x return
  • 19. Skippy lives for 14 years $50 x 12 months x 14 years - $8,400 $300 x 14 years - $4,200 $20 x 12 months x 14 years - $3,360 = - $15,960
  • 20. Skippy ROI: the value of a dog Initial cost: $2,000 Revenue: $0 Lifetime cost: $-15,960 ROI = $15,960 - $2,000 = $-17,960 = -898% $2,000
  • 22. What is the problem with measuring the transactional cost of a relationship? What we value most are the transactions that cannot be measured. Immeasurable. Beyond measure. Priceless.
  • 23. Case study 3: Value of a Facebook fan
  • 24. Value of a fan: Vitrue: $3.60 (earned media) Syncapse: $136.38 (layer cake of value) Cost of a fan: Webtrends: $1.07
  • 25. The value of a fan:
  • 26. Problem with value of a fan view “Fans” who Customers donʼt buy Fans and who are not (haters, customers on FB totally unqualified) #ROIFAIL
  • 27. Case Study 4: Holistic customer Life time value
  • 30. Gas customer lifetime value Year 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Revenue $1500 $1800 $2100 $2500 $3000 1 time acquisition cost -$100 Costs x year -$1410 -$1692 -$1974 -$2350 -$2820 Profit x year $90 + $108 + $126 + $150 + $180 $654 - $100k = $554 = 5.5x $100
  • 32. So we CAN measure the ROI of a relationship. But transactional value distorts the purpose of why people are in business. Why they become customers.
  • 33. “Your grandparents are far more prepared for whatʼs coming than you are. They understood the human connection, small-town rules. All of you who just worry about metrics, numbers, roi, you're going to die." - @garyvee
  • 34. SO WHAT. (do we measure).
  • 35. Healthy relationship? # and quality of: hugs. kisses. pleasant surprises. help around the house. positive reinforcement. listening. mutual support. shared experiences?
  • 36. Customer referral value LOYAL CUSTOMER SOCIAL CUSTOMER receipt $100 receipt receipt $200 $50 receipt $50 Higher Lifetime Value Higher Referral Value According to Kumar, Petersen, and Leone, your most valuable customers are those whose word of mouth brings in the most profitable new customers, regardless of how much they themselves buy.
  • 37. Wall Street Secret Revealed: Customer Lifetime Value is not something that “the street” cares about. When CMOs and CTOs say ROI, they really mean, “show me a pretty dashboard.”
  • 38. if you dream it... what are the levers and behaviors tha drive human connections between people and organizations?
  • 39. Dashboard: Social Program Health! presence! conversion! advocacy! size of tribe social contribution to media mix, revenue brand community % % weekly #followers score YTD Impressions YTD CPO YTD Revenue YTD Impressions YTD CPO YTD Revenue engaged growth 3,544,215 2.3% +4.2% 49.5 55,542,222 $0.34 $42554,254 55,542,222 $0.34 $42554,254 campaigns: social channels Facebook Campaign XYZ impressions eng. CTR CPO competitive tribes 5,544,555 2.3% .15% .15 total followers competitor 1 client content performance competitor 2 Video ABC engagement rate WOM impressions sharing. CTR CTR 1/5/02 1/6/02 1/7/02 1/8/02 1/9/02 sentiment analysis 3 months avg. 217,225 42.6% .5% .10% comments and sentiment about brand ambassador team Interactions Sampling Reach Trial Conversion based on 3.5 MM 10,998,877 2,444,546 43% sentiments Top ambassador events brand tracking 3 months avg. social contribution to site referrals (SEO?) Twitter 20 Innovative 15 10 Youtube Edgy 5 Lansing, MI Oradell, NJ SF, CA Pragmatic 0 Facebook U Mich Ambassador Outside Out of touch May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Sampling Thank You Lands party event Sponsorship
  • 40. How far can we take this? As the social graph reveals a huge volume of data about our actual relational behavior, we have an opportunity to pause for a moment: to consider the value system reflected in how we measure each other, ourselves, our relationships in the world.
  • 43. James Burke: Applying Analytics to Relationships
  • 45. In conclusion: ROI can be measured. But human connections are fluid, dynamic, and worth more than financial transactions alone. To measure the health of a relationship, define those actions of reciprocity and advocacy.
  • 46. thank you! @jenvandermeer