Most people see only one piece of the financial institution’s inner workings. This session will outline the full lending cycle and where performance is measured throughout
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Financial
Institution
Platform
Opportunities
Pricing and
Profitability
Credit and
closing -
capturing the
data
Credit
Monitoring &
ALLL
Asset &
Liability
Management
Business
Analytics
Full lending performance cycle
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The power of pricing
• An increase of 2.5% in loan interest income equals a gain of
more than 7% in net income
• $1 in added pretax income = almost $3 in added earnings
• A 2.5% decrease in operating expenses would increase net
income by 2.5%
• Pricing is almost three times as powerful as expense reduction
in potential impact on earnings
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Why has the interest in pricing amplified?
• Strategic reasons
– Margin compression
– Relationship management
– Risk management
– Performance measurement
– Return on shareholders equity
– Business and marketing strategy
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Truths about pricing
• Regulations will heighten competitive pressures
• CECL will dictate how much risk to consider
• Know the return you’re getting – back of the napkin isn’t
good enough
• Additional production can have
not only a positive influence, but also a negative effect on the
whole portfolio
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What fuels the return results
• Interest rate
• Cost of funds/cost of deposits
(FTP)
• Non-interest income
• Non-interest expense
• Risk expense
• Spreads
– Gross margin
– Net interest margin
– Net income
8. • Interest rates
• Non-interest
income
• Cost of funds
• Non interest
expense
• Risk premium
• Net income
• ROA
• ROE
Calculating a return - single loan
Totals Average assets %
O/S balance 100,000.00
Interest rate (V 100) 4.25%
Interest income 4,250.00 4.25%
Non-interest income 1,000.00 1.00%
Gross revenue 5,250.00 5.25%
Cost of funds 1,330.00 1.33%
Non-interest expenses 1,932.00 1.93%
Risk expense 0.3000% 300.00 0.30%
Total expenses 3,562.00 3.56%
Profit before tax 1,688.00 1.69%
Federal tax (34.0%) 573.97 0.57%
State tax (2.0%) 33.76 0.03%
Total tax 607.68 0.61%
Profit after tax 1,080.32 1.08%
ROA 1.08%
Average assets 100,00.00
ROE (8.0000) 14.14
ROA target 1.50
Additional fees 576.00
Additional basis points 57.60
Proposed Loan
Profitability
Detail Report
Loan: Proposed
Type: Commercial
LOC
Grade: Average
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Critical measures
• Return on Assets (ROA)
– Net income / average asset
• Return on Equity (ROE)
– ROA / equity
• Risk-Adjusted Return on
Capital (RAROC)
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Funds Transfer Pricing (FTP)
• A method used to individually measure how much each
source of funding is contributing to overall profitability.
• The FTP process is most often used as a means of outlining
the areas of strength and weakness within the funding of the
institution.
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Relationship pricing
Relationship Profitability
Loans
Account Number Type Rpt Av OS Rate COF Grade Fees Total Exp Profit ROA ROE
Proposed C&I $272,176 3.25% 0.30% 3 - $2,566 $1,672 0.61% 8.19%
Deposits
Account Number Type Rpt Av OS Rate FTP Fees Total Exp Profit ROL
9875641 DDA $10,000 0.00% 5.25% - - $317 317.00%
Relationship Total $272,176 - $2,566 $1,989 0.73% 9.75%
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What do we monitor?
No Change
Good quality
Poor quality
Origination
Charge
off
Deterioration
Salvage?
Workout?
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Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL)
• Replace the incurred loss with a predictive loss
approach
• CECL would require institutions to use
– Historical information
– Consider current conditions
– Use reasonable and supportable forecasts to estimate expected
shortfalls over the life of a loan
– Create a consistent measurement approach for all financial assets
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Loss Rate Methods – Today & Future
Current U.S. GAAP
CECL
Unadjusted
historical
charge-off
experience
Qualitative
adjustments
Loss
emergence
period
Loan
category
balance
ASC 450
(FAS 5)
ALLLL
Annual
Lifetime
Unadjusted
historical
charge-off
experience
Qualitative
adjustments
Loss
emergence
period
Loan
category
balance
CECL ACL
(ASC 326)
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CECL Methodology considerations
• Loss Rate Methods
– Snapshot/Open Pool
– Remaining Life
– Vintage
• Statistical Valuation Methods
– Loss migration
– Correlation analysis
– Probability of Default/Loss Given Default (PD/LGD)
– Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
• Q factor or qualitative adjustments
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Challenges
• Significant adjustments are necessary when:
– Losses are minimal
– Losses are sporadic with no predictive patterns
– There is a low number of loans in each pool
– Data is only available for a short historical period
– Today’s portfolio composition varies significantly from historical
portfolios
– There are changes in economic environment (e.g., available historical
data is from a recessionary period, but today’s environment is mid-
expansionary period)
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Emprise Bank
• Emprise Bank is a $1.8 billion bank serving more than 20 communities across
Kansas. Now under the third generation of Michaelis family leadership, we're
still committed to empowering our communities and delivering the stellar
service and innovative banking products that have made Emprise the premier
community bank in Kansas.
– History goes back to 1910 when Stockyards National Bank was formed.
– Michaelis family purchased Stockyards in 1965 and in 1989 combined several bank holdings
under the Emprise Bank name.
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Emprise Bank – Data Initiative
• Renewed emphasis on relationship profitability
– Evaluating tools to have clearer picture
• Portfolio concentration limits
– Established internal limits for certain NAICS/Call Codes
• CECL
– Identified additional origination data we were not capturing in the core
– Began capturing loan data to create an adequate historical database
– Defined further segmentation in our loan pools
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System of Record
Account Information
Risk Ratings
Rates
Fees
Transactions
Officers/Branches
General Ledger
Deposits/Loans
Off Balance Sheet
Non-Interest Expense
Non-Interest Income
Net Interest Margin
Accounts Payable
External Data
Demographics
Businessgraphics
Agrigraphics
Geographics
Economics
Markets
Data aggregation and warehousing
Data Integration
Client Relationships
Artificial Intelligence Models
Analytics and Implementation
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Business analytics
• Trending analysis
• Profitability analysis
• Identify strengths and weaknesses
• Outline strategic direction
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Relationship combinations – most popular
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$6,808.05
$10,109.27
$27,465.82
$-
$5,000.00
$10,000.00
$15,000.00
$20,000.00
$25,000.00
$30,000.00
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Business Loan Business Loan with
Checking
Business Loan with BBS
and Checking
Business
Total Relationships Average Profit
Strategic analysis