3. Who votes –and who doesn’t?
What makes people vote the way they do?
Why don’t people vote?
4.
5. Age Older >Younger
Gender Women > Men
Income Richer > Poorer
Education College Degree > HS Graduate
Race and Ethnicity Mixed Evidence
6.
7.
8.
9.
10. Truman Dewey
Panel Study: Use a sample of the population and ask them
throughout campaign if their views have changed over time.
11. • Our voting decision takes places in a social context.
• Inherit partisanship from family and peers
• Strong pull when similar socio-economic status (SES) and religion
• Impact of political homogeneity
• What about “Cross-Pressured” voters?
12.
13.
14.
15. Political Socialization
Party ID
Political Attitudes
Voting Decision
How are attitudes formed?
Feelings toward the
Democratic and
Republican candidates
How well each party
manages government
Group interests (“knows
people like me”)
Domesticpolicy issues
Foreign policy issues
16. Voting based on past performance
If you are the incumbent:
Remember great things?
“Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
If you are the challenger:
Remember problems?
“Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
17. Voting based off of future considerations
If you are the incumbent:
Plans for a new term if re-elected
What will future look like with challenger?
If you are the challenger:
Reject incumbent’s policies
Vote for change in years ahead
18.
19.
20. R= PxB – C + D
Economic theory is based on assigning costs and benefits to
voting—and then making a decision on whether to vote or not.
Isn’t it always logical to vote? Downs would say, “Maybe”
Probability of
vote
“mattering”
Benefits of
Voting
Costs of
Voting
“Civic Duty”Reward
fromVoting
24. Party ID
Is candidate a Republican or a Democrat?
Interpersonal Communications
Friends and Family; “Opinion Leaders”
The Media
Agenda-Setting, Priming, and Framing
Idea of “Representativeness”
People compare actual candidate to “ideal” version
25.
26. Legal Obstacles
Attitude Changes
Voter Mobilization
Decrease in Social Connectedness
Generational Changes
The “Rational Nonvoter”