APM Risk SIG conference 24th October 2013

1. Risk, Uncertainty and the Unknown
-a case study: Technology Acquisition for a Data link inside a CT scanner

2. Derek Wright CEng MIET APMP MAPM
Project Manger - Chemring Technology Solutions
Member of the APM Risk SIG Committee
• Worked as a Project Manager in Chemring Technology Solutions, a R&D
company, for 9 years
• Chemring Technology Solutions operates at the leading edge of technology
often breaking new ground, so the PMs working there regularly run Projects
of high uncertainty and risk
• Particularly specialises in Product Development; pulling technology research
through to a capability delivery
• Part of the group within Chemring Technology Solutions that promotes Risk
Management best practice
• Member of the APM Risk SIG Committee
• Helped prepare the Risk Management section of the APM BoK 6th Edition
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3. Introduction
• Consider Risk and Uncertainty Definitions
• Background on CT Scanners
• Background on Data Link Project
• Project Risks
• Different Categories of Risk and how they were managed
• Review of Risk and Uncertainty
• Questions and discussion
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4. Risk and Uncertainty Definitions
There are known knowns; there are things we know that we know.
There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know
we don't know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we
don't know.
Donald Rumsfeld, US Secretary for Defence
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5. Risk and Uncertainty Definitions
A Risk event is an uncertain event or set of circumstances that, should it
occur, will have an effect on achievement of one or more of the project’s
objective.
APM – Project Risk Analysis and
Management Guide
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6. Background on CT Scanners
• X-Ray Computed Tomography (CT) Scan or Computed Axial Tomography
(CAT) Scan
• Medical Imaging
• Uses Digital Geometry Processing to construct a 3d image of the body from
X-Ray slices.
• Use of CT scans has dramatically increased in the last two decades with
100’s million scans being done worldwide each year.
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7. Background on Data Link Project
• Customer was a producer of CT Scanners amongst other high end medical
equipment.
• They had developed the next generation of X-ray equipment to allow fast
imaging and better resolution.
• They now had a bottle-neck in the data transport from the moving to the
stationary part, the technology used had reached its limit.
• So they need to develop the component to do the power transfer to the
moving part and the data transfer from the moving part.
• We were asked to develop the Data Transfer technology. The old scheme
had topped out at 1Gbit/s, the next system needed 4Gbit/s and a roadmap to
10Gbit/s and 40Gbit/s was desired.
• This was our first major project in the medical electronics domain!
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8. Project Risks
• Threats
• The proposed system may have too higher error rate in the presence of the
harsh EMC environment of the CT scanner.
• There is only one company in the UK capable of making the PCB.
• The IP landscape of CT Scanners is very complex; there is a risk that we will
infringe some one else's patent or avoid a patent we don’t need to.
• We have no experience of integrating a technology into a CT Scanner, we
don’t know how long it will take.
• Opportunities
• If the technology goes beyond current generation and is scalable to higher
data rates then we enable the generations beyond of CT Scanners.
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9. The proposed system may have too higher error
rate in the presence of the harsh EMC
environment of the CT scanner.
• Threat
• Unknown
• Risk closed when live test conducted – all Power supplies and X-Ray
equipment on, system rotating and Error rate test conducted over data link.
• Strategy – closing the uncertainty gap
• Measurement of EMC environment
• Simulation of design in modelled EMC environment
• Early testing of Prototypes using interfering sources
• Early testing of installed system using interfering sources
• Testing of installed system all on but not rotating.
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10. There is only one company in the UK capable of
making the PCB.
• Threat
• Probability Risk – Company goes out of business, gets overloaded, doesn’t
want to work with us, gives poor service.
• Project Risk closed once all deliveries are made of the PCB.
• Strategy – Mitigation & Contingency
• Establish good working relationship at all levels with the PCB company.
• Make sure they are aware of the overall project and on-going opportunities for
production volume.
• Identify and open discussions with none UK companies who could also do
this work.
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11. The IP landscape of CT Scanners is very complex;
there is a risk that we will infringe some one else's
patent or avoid a patent we don’t need to.
• Threat
• Unknown
• Risk will never be completely closed
• Strategy – closing the uncertainty gap and transfer
• Conduct IP/Patent searches ourselves.
• Consult with Customer’s (domain aware) IP/Patent dept.
• ….to improve our collective understanding of the IP landscape
• Document and hand-off to the customer
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12. We have no experience of integrating a technology
into a CT Scanner, we don’t know how long it will take.
• Threat
• Unknown / estimating risk
• Closed once the data link technology has been integrated to the CT Scanner.
• Strategy – closing the uncertainty gap, risk provision
• Break down the task and estimate what we can
• Hold workshop with customer experts to understand tasks we are not able to
estimate.
• Build up risk provision (time & budget) based on task as it is understood at
bid
• Monitor and update as more info becomes available during project.
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13. If the technology goes beyond current generation and
is scalable to higher data rates then we enable the
generations beyond of CT Scanners.
• Opportunity
• Unknown
• Risk closed once technology implemented and installed running at higher
rates. (not done during project)
• Strategy – closing the uncertainty gap and transfer
• Investigate what changes would be required to reach higher data rates
• Model behaviour of system and changes at higher data rates
• Prototype higher rate system
• Document proposal and challenges and transfer to customer at project
closure
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14. Review of Risk and Uncertainty
• Uncertainty and unknowns are a key factor of Risk
• Managing Uncertainty is part of Risk Management
• Sometimes the uncertainty is itself the risk – understanding this is key
• Risk can be managed by closing the uncertainty gap …...
…..…and the art is to do this as quickly as possible
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