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Solar Power Sector
July-2017
Technology, BoS & Phase of Project Development
Ashish Verma, Analyst AMPSolar Inc.
Solar Power Generation: Schematics and BoS
Solar
Module
s
Solar
Inverters
Mounting
Structures
AC
cables
DC Cables
Junction...
Solar Power Sector
Solar in India: Technology, cost structure & prospective
4P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Key solar technology: Heads for selection of PV Module
• Poly C-Si is dominant te...
5P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Key solar technology: Manufacturing & arrangement
Conventional Silicon batch proc...
6P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Solar Cell efficiency: Historical & roadmap
• Efficiency of average commercial wa...
7P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Upcoming technology & product, Process
PERC/PERL/PERT
• Expected > 50% in 2025 (I...
8P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Cost structure of leading module manufactures
0.76
0.13
0.11
0.09
0.23
0.08
0.06 ...
Solar Power Sector
Balance of system ( Utility scale Solar PV Project)
10P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Balance of system
• Inverters
• Mounting & Racking Systems
• Electrical Equipmen...
11P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
BOS Trend
-10.00
10.00
30.00
50.00
70.00
90.00
110.00
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 20...
12P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
BoS Cost Breakup
Module
65%
Inverters
4%
Mounting
Structures
7%
Civil Works &
De...
13P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
What next in BoS :1500V Inverter
Advantages
• Higher DC and AC voltage i.e. less...
14P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Commercial Comparison: 1500V v/s 1000V
Comparison of 1500V v/s 1000V
Item Remark...
15P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Future Trends
Main Drives of BOS Cost Reduction in future
• Best practices assim...
Solar Power Sector
Bankable Solar Project: Techno commercial Pre feasibility analysis
17P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
The need of Pre feasibility analysis:Non Solar Park Projects
• Land Requirement
...
18P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Pre Feasibility and commercial evaluation
1. Site Visit
2. Executive summary
3. ...
19P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Identified land parcel & suitability
• Accessibility to Port, Highway, Airports
...
20P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Capacity Estimation & area requirement
• Land requirement is based on Type of Mo...
21P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
PV Module & BOS(balance of system)
Module
• Select Higher efficiency/ Higher wat...
22P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Radiation resource assessment
“Solar GIS/Meteonorm 7.1/3Tier are reliable meteod...
23P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Expected energy yield, PR & Factors
Loss category Particular
Irradiance GHI
GHI ...
24P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Sr. No Transmission Line
1 GSS Geo Coordinate
2 Substation owned by
3 GSS Voltag...
25P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Estimated project cost and head wise break up
Project cost
• EPC Cost
• Land Cos...
26P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Power sale arrangement
• PPA Tenure
• Power Off taker creditworthiness
Demand gr...
27P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Risk Assessment: Project Completion Risk
 Project implementation period (10 MW)...
28P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Risk Assessment: Project Completion Risk
Land Acquisition
EPC Contractor /
Equip...
29P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
S. No. Risk Category Residual Risk
1 Technology Risk Medium
2 Implementation Ris...
30P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Project implementation strategy
Solar Power Sector
Solar in India: Phase of Project development ( Utility scale prospective )
32P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Phase of Project Development
90D 240D 30D
• Techno commercial
Prefeasibility ana...
33P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
EPC construction Phase & handover protocol
Constru
ction
Mecha
nical
installat
i...
34P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Site Survey & Boundary work
35P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Site Levelling & grading
36P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Auguring, Pilling & MMS
37P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Structure Errection
38P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Module Mounting
39P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Inverter installation
40P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
SCB, LA and Earthing
41P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Transformer Installation
42P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Weather Monitoring Station
43P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
DC Cable trenching & laying
44P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Switch yard
45P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Main Control Room
46P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Transmission Line
47P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Bird view of Key Projects
Welspun 50 MW
Baramati MH
10 MW First Solar,
Telangana...
48P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L
Role of stakeholders
Role of Stakeholders
Stakeholder Developer Government EPC c...
Discussion….
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Solar power sector: Technology, BoS, Pre Feasbility and phase of project development -India prospective-

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Key Solar PV technology and future perspective, penetration
Trend in Balance of system, cost projection
Step to make the project bankable, Pre-feasibility for solar
Phase of Solar Project development inUtility scale segment

Credit: Bhuwan Mehta, PwC
Gensol Consultants
IRENA, IRELP, AMPSolar

Publicada em: Engenharia
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Solar power sector: Technology, BoS, Pre Feasbility and phase of project development -India prospective-

  1. 1. Solar Power Sector July-2017 Technology, BoS & Phase of Project Development Ashish Verma, Analyst AMPSolar Inc.
  2. 2. Solar Power Generation: Schematics and BoS Solar Module s Solar Inverters Mounting Structures AC cables DC Cables Junction Boxes + Protectio n Transmission Line Transformer RMU and HT Panels DC AC Utility The energy from sunlight gets converted into DC Current on hitting the solar panels. The current so produced is fed into inverter to give AC Current at a low voltage. The transformer connected to the inverter steps up the voltage to an exportable level after which the electricity produced is fed to the grid.
  3. 3. Solar Power Sector Solar in India: Technology, cost structure & prospective
  4. 4. 4P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Key solar technology: Heads for selection of PV Module • Poly C-Si is dominant technology and first preference by the developer • Proven Track record of performance >35-40 years • India’s installation is dominant by Imported Chines Tier 1 Modules • PERC, Black silicon, Dual Glass, Solar PV Technology Crystalline Technology Poly Mono Thin film Thin film silicon CIS/CIGS CdTe Type of Material Module efficiency Module rating (in Wp) Module weight Effect of Temperature Irradiance & Spectral Gain Vendor Track record Tier 1, Financial , Bill of Material Specific Yield Module Price (Cents/Wp)
  5. 5. 5P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Key solar technology: Manufacturing & arrangement Conventional Silicon batch process Thin film Manufacturing process
  6. 6. 6P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Solar Cell efficiency: Historical & roadmap • Efficiency of average commercial wafer based silicon module has grown from 10% to 17% in last 10 years • Best efficiency multi-crystalline module: 19.20 % & Thin film CdTe 18.6% 12.90% 13.40% 14.40% 16.10% 16.48% 14.40% 16.10% 17.00% 18.20% 19.00% 14.40% 15.00% 15.45% 16.00% 16.45% 17.30% 18.70% 20.40% 21.50% 22.10% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 20.00% 22.00% 24.00% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Thin film Solar Module Thin film Solar Cell Poly Solar Module Poly Solar Cell • Lower Poly silicon cost ( $13-15/kg) • Lower Poly silicon uses and leveraging diamond wiresaw • Reduce raw material uses and purchase cost through vertical integration • Increase fleet production • Higher efficiency • Reduction in bill of material cost
  7. 7. 7P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Upcoming technology & product, Process PERC/PERL/PERT • Expected > 50% in 2025 (ITRPV) • Improve efficiency by rear side dielectric treatment improving passivation and rear side reflection Half cut cell • Expected ~ 30% market share in 2025 • Improve efficiency by reducing the level of current flow through module Copper wire Interconnection Technology • Expected ~25% market share in 2025 • Improve efficiency by reducing series resistance and shadowing Shingling technology • Expected 8% market share in 2025 • Improve efficiency by reducing current level and shadowing Series 6 First solar 420 Wp 18% Module efficiency (Q2 2018) • Cost reduction opportunity due to Reactor capacity, reduced electricity consumption , FBR technology different from Siemens process • Expected to touch PV Module prices ($0.25/Wp ) by Q2-2020 • Lowering cell to Module ratio • Silicon module super league (SMSL) accounts 50% market share KU Module Black Silicon
  8. 8. 8P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Cost structure of leading module manufactures 0.76 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.23 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.33 0.12 0.12 0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Q2 2011 Q42016 Q42017 Q42020 Cost structure of leading Module manufacturers (in $/Wp) Wafer Cell Module 1.32 0.33 0.29 0.25 Annual reduction rate of -9.80% Source: Canadian Solar Investor relation March 2017
  9. 9. Solar Power Sector Balance of system ( Utility scale Solar PV Project)
  10. 10. 10P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Balance of system • Inverters • Mounting & Racking Systems • Electrical Equipment and Installation • Cabling-AC & DC • Transformers & Breakers • Combiner Boxes • Earthing • Transmission Line, etc • Civil Work & Development • Inverter Rooms, CMCS • Roads, Boundary, Drainage, Cleaning Systems, etc • Land • Miscellaneous “All components of a photovoltaic system other the photovoltaic panels”
  11. 11. 11P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L BOS Trend -10.00 10.00 30.00 50.00 70.00 90.00 110.00 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 NormalizedValue Normalized CERC PV Cost Curves Project Cost Module Cost BOS Cost 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00% 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Module-BOS Cost Breakup Module BOS • Module cost curve has outrun BOS cost curve • BOS optimization from 2013-14 • Module:BOS at 65:35 • Module CARR~ 9% • BOS CARR ~8%
  12. 12. 12P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L BoS Cost Breakup Module 65% Inverters 4% Mounting Structures 7% Civil Works & Development 7% Electrical BOS 10% Land 6% Miscellaneous 1% Solar Project Cost Breakup Head Components Trend Inverters Mounting Structures MMS, Fasteners, Installation or Tracker Civil Works & Development Rooms, Roads, Boundary, Drainage, Cleaning Electrical BOS Cabling, Transformers, Breakers, Combiner Boxes, Earthing Land Miscellaneous CCTV, Monitoring
  13. 13. 13P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L What next in BoS :1500V Inverter Advantages • Higher DC and AC voltage i.e. lesser current and lesser cabling • Lesser current allows the increase in inverter block power, lesser BOS • 50% longer strings, implying lesser strings, and 33% lesser junction boxes • Lesser monitoring, and economical installation • IEC certifications are in place • Higher yield Disadvantages • Component availability limited at present, thus driving BOS costs higher • Higher inverter costs due to 1500V components
  14. 14. 14P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Commercial Comparison: 1500V v/s 1000V Comparison of 1500V v/s 1000V Item Remarks Savings (%) Savings (INR/Wp) Saving Trend PV Modules 0.5 USD cents higher for 1500V -1.15% -0.34 DC Cables Quantity Saving ~30% Unit Cost considered 10% extra for 1500V 22.22% 0.16 SCB Quantity Saving ~32% Unit Cost considered 25% extra for 1500V 15.70% 0.05 AC Subsystem Inverter Trafo, LT Cable, Aux. Trafo 11.44% 0.08 Inverter 25% higher cost -25.00% -0.44 Civil & Labour Inverter Pad for 1500V, Room for 1000V. Installation Labour work reduction by 10% assumed 31.08% 0.22 Overall -0.83% -0.28
  15. 15. 15P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Future Trends Main Drives of BOS Cost Reduction in future • Best practices assimilation across the industry • Module efficiency • Technological developments • Incremental design improvements, such as higher overloading, mounting structure, block size, etc • Localization including streamlined logistics • Increase in market volume • Automation in production, development and installation Based on the above factors and historical trends, we foresee a BOS cost reduction of 30%-35% by 2020
  16. 16. Solar Power Sector Bankable Solar Project: Techno commercial Pre feasibility analysis
  17. 17. 17P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L The need of Pre feasibility analysis:Non Solar Park Projects • Land Requirement • Capacity Estimation • Minimize radiation risk thus energy yield • Technology selection • BoS optimization • Project Economics • Infrastructure (Connectivity, Mobility) • Availability of Man-power/Machinery • Power Evacuation • Project implementation strategy
  18. 18. 18P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Pre Feasibility and commercial evaluation 1. Site Visit 2. Executive summary 3. Radiation, Energy Yield and Land assessment 4. Comparative Analysis of States 5. Comparative Analysis of Policy 6. Power Sale Arrangement 7. Technology Selection 8. Project Cost estimation 9. Risk assessment and plan 10.Project Financials 1. Selection of States • High Solar radiation availability • Availability of barren/government/waste land • Suitable Policy of State 2. District wise Metrological Data Comparison • Solar Radiation • Temperature • Wind Speed • Seismic zone • Rainfall • Humidity 3. Type of Land Type of Ownership Private Government Type of Soil Distance from Sub- Station 4. Power Evacuation 5. Region wise Generation Comparison
  19. 19. 19P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Identified land parcel & suitability • Accessibility to Port, Highway, Airports • Geo Coordinates • Land area • Soil Strata & Shadow objects • Encroachment • Water availability • Nearest Grid substation • Land cost (Lease v/s acquisition )
  20. 20. 20P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Capacity Estimation & area requirement • Land requirement is based on Type of Module Mounting system selection • GCR (Pitch ) • Shadow limiting factor • Efficiency of Module Higher the GCR lower the land requirement • Fixed tilt ( Based on optimal tilt selection ) lower GCR in North • Seasonal tilt • Single axis tracker ( Rotational angle +/- 45 Degree or +/- 60 degree) (0.43-0.48) Type of MMS Land requirement (in acre/MWp) Fixed tilt 3.80-4.20 Seasonal tilt 4.20-4.50 Single axis tracker 4.50- 4.80
  21. 21. 21P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L PV Module & BOS(balance of system) Module • Select Higher efficiency/ Higher wattage module • Tier 1, Annual Degradation, LID rate • Due to High efficiency/lesser area requirement , long term performance proven technology , Effective cost /Wp and Energy generation • Techno Commercial analysis Inverter • Central inverter with IGBT technology has been proposed • Selected based on modular in nature ,reduce down time ,Max. efficiency • Cost per Wp is less compare to string inverter • Monitoring is easy DC Cable ,AC cables, Inverter duty transformer, Power transformer, Earthing strips , LT and HT panel , switch Yard ,SCADA & PLC etc.
  22. 22. 22P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Radiation resource assessment “Solar GIS/Meteonorm 7.1/3Tier are reliable meteodata source , lender’s recognition ” Period of record Temporal resolution Spatial coverage Spatial resolution Data element and source Estimated uncertainty Updates Location Solar GIS Meteonorm 7.1 Telangana (Achampet) 1971 1952 Gujarat (Charanka ) 2006 2017 Punjab (Bathinda) 1767 1750 Bagbahara (Chhattisgarh) 1908 1835 Variability of radiation is ~+/-4% of Solar GIS and Meteonorm is ~ +/-5.5%-7.50% for India
  23. 23. 23P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Expected energy yield, PR & Factors Loss category Particular Irradiance GHI GHI on collector plane IAM Factor Soiling loss Array Normal Energy DC Field Losses PV Loss due to irradiance PV Loss due to Temper. Light induced degradation Module Quality Loss Array Mismatch Loss Ohmic Wiring loss Array virtual energy Inverter Inverter loss during operation AC field Losses Aux Consumption System Unavailability AC Ohmic Loss External T/F Loss T/L Line Loss Expected CUF (in %) Specific Yield CUF Performance ratio Probabilistic Yield analysis Uncertainty calculation PVsyst Software for Energy Generation assessment- a complete software for Meteorogical analysis and Energy Yield calculation Type of MMS Incremental in Yield Fixed tilt Base case Seasonal tilt 2.50%-3.80% Single axis tracker 13.50%-16.50%
  24. 24. 24P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Sr. No Transmission Line 1 GSS Geo Coordinate 2 Substation owned by 3 GSS Voltage Level 4 Evacuation voltage 5 GSS Location 6 Transmission line length (Ariel ) 7 Crossing 8 Connectivity approval status 9 GSS Uptime 10 GSS Capacity 11 Load flow studies 12 Selection of Conductor (specific to state) Transmission Line & GSS Summary
  25. 25. 25P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Estimated project cost and head wise break up Project cost • EPC Cost • Land Cost • Soft cost • Total project cost Financing • Debt %: • Equity %: • Debt Interest rate : • Debt repayment tenure: • Moratorium period: • EIRR : • PIRR: • Min DSCR : • Avg. DSCR: • Payback :
  26. 26. 26P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Power sale arrangement • PPA Tenure • Power Off taker creditworthiness Demand growth Loss reduction UDAY progress Financial performance Payment security • Receivables timelines • PPA Rate (in INR/kWh) • Key PPA terms • SECI/NTPC are AAA credit rating • 41 DISCOMs (5 A+, 6 A, 8 B+, 10 B, 5 C+, 7 C-) • Tamilnadu, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan are among the worst
  27. 27. 27P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Risk Assessment: Project Completion Risk  Project implementation period (10 MW) is nearly 3-5 months with the construction period of 1-2 months.  However, the completion of the power project can get delayed due to the following reasons:  Delay in achieving financial closure  Energy Purchase Agreement  Long lead time for imported plant & machinery.  First of its kind for the developer • Project Completion Risk – Medium/Low • Land acquisition • Technology Risk • Cost over-run Risk • Generation Assurance • Force Majeure Risk • Operating Risk • Plant Performance Risk • Transmission Line RoW
  28. 28. 28P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Risk Assessment: Project Completion Risk Land Acquisition EPC Contractor / Equipment Selection Financial Closure Plant Construction (EPC) Buffer 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Months Identification of Land Parcels Techno Commercial Evaluation Negotiation, Mutation & Registration Technology Finalization Invitation of Quotations & Meetings Negotiation & Finalization Preparation of DPR Project Financial & Technical Assessment In Principle Sanction & Disbursement Basic & Detailed Engineering Equipment Procurement Construction & Commissioning Panic Zone Assuming a 50 MW Project taking 6 months in construction and 2 month for planning
  29. 29. 29P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L S. No. Risk Category Residual Risk 1 Technology Risk Medium 2 Implementation Risk Low 3 Evacuation Risk Medium 4 Financial Risk Low 5 Regulatory risk Low 6 Power Offtake risk Low 7 Credit risk Low 8 Radiation risk Medium Risk Analysis (Summary)
  30. 30. 30P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Project implementation strategy
  31. 31. Solar Power Sector Solar in India: Phase of Project development ( Utility scale prospective )
  32. 32. 32P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Phase of Project Development 90D 240D 30D • Techno commercial Prefeasibility analysis • Company formation • Land Identification • Signing of PPA • Financial closure • Permit and License • EPC contractor selection • Planning and Construction • Commissioning • O&M contractor selection • Plant handover • Revenue Pre Development During Development Post Development • EPC contract is responsible for Engineering design, Procurement of Balance of system component and Construction activities • Typically 200-250 Workers /15-20 MWp Projects are required on daily basis in the mid of development
  33. 33. 33P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L EPC construction Phase & handover protocol Constru ction Mecha nical installat ion Pre commis sioning activitie s Provisio nal accepta nce (15- 20 Days) Financi al accepta nce test Plant handov er O& M (DLP) Defect Liability period
  34. 34. 34P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Site Survey & Boundary work
  35. 35. 35P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Site Levelling & grading
  36. 36. 36P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Auguring, Pilling & MMS
  37. 37. 37P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Structure Errection
  38. 38. 38P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Module Mounting
  39. 39. 39P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Inverter installation
  40. 40. 40P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L SCB, LA and Earthing
  41. 41. 41P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Transformer Installation
  42. 42. 42P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Weather Monitoring Station
  43. 43. 43P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L DC Cable trenching & laying
  44. 44. 44P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Switch yard
  45. 45. 45P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Main Control Room
  46. 46. 46P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Transmission Line
  47. 47. 47P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Bird view of Key Projects Welspun 50 MW Baramati MH 10 MW First Solar, Telangana Hindustan Clean Energy 50 MWp Charanka
  48. 48. 48P R I V A T E & C O N F I D E N T I A L Role of stakeholders Role of Stakeholders Stakeholder Developer Government EPC contractor O&M Contractor Lenders Development phase Pre Development During Development Post Development Pre Development During Development Post Development During Development Post Development Post Development During Development Role & Responsibiliti es Pre feasibility Government liasoning Debt/ Equity arrangement Assets owner Land procurement Permit and License Procurement assistance PPA signing Long term ESCROW Land Development Component Procurement Design Engineering Construction and Commissioning Operation and Maintenance of Plant Debt
  49. 49. Discussion….

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