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CI 2.0 – Incisive Intelligence, Collaborative Innovation & a Bottoms-Up Approach to Getting the Upper Hand Arik R. Johnson Predictive Intelligence 2007 Development & Leadership Institute Princeton, New Jersey USA CEO & Managing Director, Aurora WDC Conference Session [email_address] Tuesday 23 January 2007
CI is About Better Decision-Making ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Three Intelligence Trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Porter’s Five Forces Model
Impacts on Planning & Execution Your Company’s Plans and Execution Vision and  Grand Strategy Strategic Plans Market Success Operational Projects and Programs Tactical Execution Other (More-or-Less) “Uncontrollables” Competitors’ Plans and Actions New Forms of Competition X Y Z P Q R A B C Indirect  Competitors Direct  Competitors Government and Regulatory The Economy Technology Market Trends Industry Rationalization Other Unknowns
Strategic Intelligence ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Strategy Square
Growth Vector Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],  Present Products Improved Products New Products Existing Market Market Penetration Product Extension Product Development Expanded Market Market Extension Market Segmentation / Product Differentiation Product Development / Market Extension New Market Market Development Product/Service Extension & Market Development Diversification
Traditional CI Follows a Disciplined Process for Information Collection and Analysis Deliver, Inform & Recommend Planning &  Direction Secondary Research Analysis & Production Primary Research Tactical Users &  Strategic Decision Makers Needs The Traditional CI Cycle
Key Intelligence Topics (KITs) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Two Fundamental Competitive Analysis Model Examples SWOT Analysis Core Competence
Tactical CI Project Example: Cost Analysis
Level of CI Involvement in M&A Stage   ID   Evaluate  Due    Consum- Criteria    Targets   Analyze  Diligence  Recommend  Negotiation  mation  Integration Level of CI Involvement High Low Intelligence Research Business Units   Finance   Technical Assessment   Legal Executives   M&A Specialists Transition Team   Logistics   HR
Seven Steps to Effective Competitive Benchmarking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Competitors, Customers & Technologies Are Complex Interdependencies CI is Learning to See Clearly through Market Illusions
The Duality of Intelligence Both  Decisive & Incisive Sensing Incisive Scanning for Trends, there is no “Decision” to be made Recognizing “Pattern Vectors” Framework for Interpretation Implications for the Reader Bottom-Up Driven by Trends Outcome is Observation Hypothetical Decisive Frame of Reference is the Decision, Less Trend-Dependent Framework for Analysis Compares Options & Outcomes Recommendations and Trust Top-Down Driven by Issues Decision & Action vs. ‘Nariyuki’ Factual
Different Missions, Different Approaches Specialist Slower Production Less Output, More Analytical Agenda Driven by Contact Network Lots of Subject Matter Knowledge Seeks Explanation of the Subject Investigative Very Slow, Curious, Historical Little Output, Highly Analytical Questions Official Positions, Listens to Nonspokesmen Operates Outside Routine Agenda of the Publisher Generalist In a Hurry Lots of Output, Less Analytical Agenda Driven by the Publisher Little Knowledge of Subject Matter Seeks Volume of Public Interest
The Insight Method ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Ideal Analyst = Investigative Journalist ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Success Breeds Complacency ,[object Object],[object Object]
Consumers “Hire” Products to Do “Jobs” for Them Concentrate Less on What Customers “Want” and More on What Customers “Need”
Disruptive Innovation Theory Sustaining Innovations Better Products Brought to Established Markets Low-End Disruptions Target Overshot Customers with a Lower Cost Business Model New-Market Disruption Compete Against Nonconsumption Difference Performance Measure Time Nonconsumers or Nonconsuming Contexts Performance
Disruptive Technology
Value Chain Evolution Theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
RPV Theory: Building Capabilities Processes Ways to Turn Resources into Products/Services Hiring/Training Product Dev. Manufacturing Budgeting Research Values Prioritization Criteria for Decision-Making Cost Structure Income Statement Customer Demand Opp. Size Ethics Resources Assets the Firm can Buy or Sell, Build or Destroy People Technology Products Equipment Cash/Brand/Distr.
Consumer Demand & Signals of Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Established Companies almost always Lose to Disruptive Innovators
Process of Predicting Industry Change Signals of Change Strategic Choices Influencing Success Likely Outcome of Competitive Battles
The CI Think Tank Model TASKING > SENSING > INTERPRETATION
Questions or Comments? ,[object Object],Arik R. Johnson Intelligence Development Institute [email_address] +01-715-720-1616 Derek L. Johnson Research & Analysis Bureau [email_address] +01-608-268-3470

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Competitive Intelligence 2.0 – Incisive Intelligence, Collaborative Innovation & a Bottoms-Up Approach to Getting the Upper Hand

  • 1. CI 2.0 – Incisive Intelligence, Collaborative Innovation & a Bottoms-Up Approach to Getting the Upper Hand Arik R. Johnson Predictive Intelligence 2007 Development & Leadership Institute Princeton, New Jersey USA CEO & Managing Director, Aurora WDC Conference Session [email_address] Tuesday 23 January 2007
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 5. Impacts on Planning & Execution Your Company’s Plans and Execution Vision and Grand Strategy Strategic Plans Market Success Operational Projects and Programs Tactical Execution Other (More-or-Less) “Uncontrollables” Competitors’ Plans and Actions New Forms of Competition X Y Z P Q R A B C Indirect Competitors Direct Competitors Government and Regulatory The Economy Technology Market Trends Industry Rationalization Other Unknowns
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8. Traditional CI Follows a Disciplined Process for Information Collection and Analysis Deliver, Inform & Recommend Planning & Direction Secondary Research Analysis & Production Primary Research Tactical Users & Strategic Decision Makers Needs The Traditional CI Cycle
  • 9.
  • 10. Two Fundamental Competitive Analysis Model Examples SWOT Analysis Core Competence
  • 11. Tactical CI Project Example: Cost Analysis
  • 12. Level of CI Involvement in M&A Stage ID Evaluate Due Consum- Criteria Targets Analyze Diligence Recommend Negotiation mation Integration Level of CI Involvement High Low Intelligence Research Business Units Finance Technical Assessment Legal Executives M&A Specialists Transition Team Logistics HR
  • 13.
  • 14. Competitors, Customers & Technologies Are Complex Interdependencies CI is Learning to See Clearly through Market Illusions
  • 15. The Duality of Intelligence Both Decisive & Incisive Sensing Incisive Scanning for Trends, there is no “Decision” to be made Recognizing “Pattern Vectors” Framework for Interpretation Implications for the Reader Bottom-Up Driven by Trends Outcome is Observation Hypothetical Decisive Frame of Reference is the Decision, Less Trend-Dependent Framework for Analysis Compares Options & Outcomes Recommendations and Trust Top-Down Driven by Issues Decision & Action vs. ‘Nariyuki’ Factual
  • 16. Different Missions, Different Approaches Specialist Slower Production Less Output, More Analytical Agenda Driven by Contact Network Lots of Subject Matter Knowledge Seeks Explanation of the Subject Investigative Very Slow, Curious, Historical Little Output, Highly Analytical Questions Official Positions, Listens to Nonspokesmen Operates Outside Routine Agenda of the Publisher Generalist In a Hurry Lots of Output, Less Analytical Agenda Driven by the Publisher Little Knowledge of Subject Matter Seeks Volume of Public Interest
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. Consumers “Hire” Products to Do “Jobs” for Them Concentrate Less on What Customers “Want” and More on What Customers “Need”
  • 21. Disruptive Innovation Theory Sustaining Innovations Better Products Brought to Established Markets Low-End Disruptions Target Overshot Customers with a Lower Cost Business Model New-Market Disruption Compete Against Nonconsumption Difference Performance Measure Time Nonconsumers or Nonconsuming Contexts Performance
  • 23.
  • 24. RPV Theory: Building Capabilities Processes Ways to Turn Resources into Products/Services Hiring/Training Product Dev. Manufacturing Budgeting Research Values Prioritization Criteria for Decision-Making Cost Structure Income Statement Customer Demand Opp. Size Ethics Resources Assets the Firm can Buy or Sell, Build or Destroy People Technology Products Equipment Cash/Brand/Distr.
  • 25.
  • 26. Process of Predicting Industry Change Signals of Change Strategic Choices Influencing Success Likely Outcome of Competitive Battles
  • 27. The CI Think Tank Model TASKING > SENSING > INTERPRETATION
  • 28.