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Investing in
Innovation
Murray Cantor, CTO
APTAGE.COM | 2
You have questions
For development programs:
•How much should we invest?
•In what should we invest?
•Are we receiving value from progress?
•Should we continue to invest?
APTAGE.COM | 3
The key question: “How do you measure the value of an incomplete project?”
Some incorrect answers:
• Nothing until shipped
• Sunk cost (Expense to date)
APTAGE.COM | 4
The economists’ answer …
• To determine work, treat the effort as a
risky investment
• Model the Net Profit over the total program
life
• The value today of this profit stream is it’s
Net Present Value (NPV)
• The ROI = NPV / DevCost
• This would be trivial if all these numbers
were simple and easy…
NetProfit(t) =
Benefits(t) – DevCosts(t) – AfterDeliveryCosts(t)
APTAGE.COM | 5
Uncertainty makes NPV, ROI much harder to reason about
Two views of the NPV Two views of the ROI
• Future values are uncertain
• Need to reason about the
probabilities
• Hard for people
• Need machine to augment
peoples capabilities
• Probabilities will change in time,
hence the need for AI and
machine learning
APTAGE.COM | 6
Uncertain Economic Factors
• Costs:
• Development – staff costs, work estimates and
run rate, tooling/ops costs, vendor costs
• After Delivery – operations, maintenance, support
(partially dependent on development choices)
• Benefits
• Revenues based on price, addressable market
share, retention
• Efficiencies
• ….
APTAGE.COM | 7
Using Aptage - Deciding to invest?
•Your organization sets a target of 8X
ROI from the project
•They want to be 60% confident of
reaching the target.
• Either reject programs that are too
risky or replan to get meet target and
risk appetite
APTAGE.COM | 8
Aptage Portfolio View
APTAGE.COM | 9
Which investments are closest to target?
Aptage Portfolio ViewEvaluate Option:
• Buy/Build
• Different Strategies
• Different Vendors
Compare
• economic forecasts, timelines, and
risk
CHOOSE, and execute working off the
uncertainty
Aptage J-S View
APTAGE.COM | 10
Strategy
Decision Support
Execution
Delivery Support
• Make sound economic investment decisions
• Digital Transformation, Product Launches, Innovation
• Complex Systems, Construction, Hardware/Software
• Manage innovation, risk, and uncertainty to success
How likely to finish on time? When will work finish?ROI/Confidence Portfolio Probable J-S Curves
APTAGE.COM | 11
We have answers
Q: How much should we invest?
A: Only as much as has acceptable risk of
meeting ROI target.
Q: Should we continue to invest?
A: Yes, If the likelihood of receiving ROI still
high enough.
Q: Are we receiving value from progress?
A: Yes, if the NPV and ROI are improving.
APTAGE.COM | 12
How Aptage can help
• Aptage provides a foundation of economic theory, the mathematics of uncertainty, and
the simplicity of small data to:
• Provide sound economic and risk data-driven decision making to start, continue, and
kill project investments.
• Enable stakeholders, SME’s, and vendors to collaborate effectively to make best
decisions with all available information
• Instrument current models and forecasting tools with
uncertainty/probability/confidence
• Provide Aptage RBd for measuring schedule uncertainty
• Continuously revise projections based on team/vendor/program completion realities
APTAGE.COM | 13
Proprietary AI that integrates
the best thinking about
managing uncertainty and risk.
Elicit ranges,
not averages
Utilize team beliefs
as probabilities
Delphi
Game theory
Leverage intuition
& mathematics
Aptage Differentiators
Our team has a unique combination
• Data science (the mathematics of uncertainty)
• Deep domain knowledge (econ of development)
Our IP is a small data, in-place, learning AI
• Continuously learns, predict, advices
• Proprietary Algorithm (Trade Secret)
• Although data available is small, Aptage can still
provide actionable advice for strategy/execution
AI Platform for
Projects
APTAGE.COM | 14
Thank you!
Dr. Murray Cantor
CTO & Co-Founder
Murray@aptage.com
John Gonzalez
Vice President, Aptage Sales
(248)697-8757
John.Gonzalez@aptage.com

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Investing in Innovation

  • 2. APTAGE.COM | 2 You have questions For development programs: •How much should we invest? •In what should we invest? •Are we receiving value from progress? •Should we continue to invest?
  • 3. APTAGE.COM | 3 The key question: “How do you measure the value of an incomplete project?” Some incorrect answers: • Nothing until shipped • Sunk cost (Expense to date)
  • 4. APTAGE.COM | 4 The economists’ answer … • To determine work, treat the effort as a risky investment • Model the Net Profit over the total program life • The value today of this profit stream is it’s Net Present Value (NPV) • The ROI = NPV / DevCost • This would be trivial if all these numbers were simple and easy… NetProfit(t) = Benefits(t) – DevCosts(t) – AfterDeliveryCosts(t)
  • 5. APTAGE.COM | 5 Uncertainty makes NPV, ROI much harder to reason about Two views of the NPV Two views of the ROI • Future values are uncertain • Need to reason about the probabilities • Hard for people • Need machine to augment peoples capabilities • Probabilities will change in time, hence the need for AI and machine learning
  • 6. APTAGE.COM | 6 Uncertain Economic Factors • Costs: • Development – staff costs, work estimates and run rate, tooling/ops costs, vendor costs • After Delivery – operations, maintenance, support (partially dependent on development choices) • Benefits • Revenues based on price, addressable market share, retention • Efficiencies • ….
  • 7. APTAGE.COM | 7 Using Aptage - Deciding to invest? •Your organization sets a target of 8X ROI from the project •They want to be 60% confident of reaching the target. • Either reject programs that are too risky or replan to get meet target and risk appetite
  • 8. APTAGE.COM | 8 Aptage Portfolio View
  • 9. APTAGE.COM | 9 Which investments are closest to target? Aptage Portfolio ViewEvaluate Option: • Buy/Build • Different Strategies • Different Vendors Compare • economic forecasts, timelines, and risk CHOOSE, and execute working off the uncertainty Aptage J-S View
  • 10. APTAGE.COM | 10 Strategy Decision Support Execution Delivery Support • Make sound economic investment decisions • Digital Transformation, Product Launches, Innovation • Complex Systems, Construction, Hardware/Software • Manage innovation, risk, and uncertainty to success How likely to finish on time? When will work finish?ROI/Confidence Portfolio Probable J-S Curves
  • 11. APTAGE.COM | 11 We have answers Q: How much should we invest? A: Only as much as has acceptable risk of meeting ROI target. Q: Should we continue to invest? A: Yes, If the likelihood of receiving ROI still high enough. Q: Are we receiving value from progress? A: Yes, if the NPV and ROI are improving.
  • 12. APTAGE.COM | 12 How Aptage can help • Aptage provides a foundation of economic theory, the mathematics of uncertainty, and the simplicity of small data to: • Provide sound economic and risk data-driven decision making to start, continue, and kill project investments. • Enable stakeholders, SME’s, and vendors to collaborate effectively to make best decisions with all available information • Instrument current models and forecasting tools with uncertainty/probability/confidence • Provide Aptage RBd for measuring schedule uncertainty • Continuously revise projections based on team/vendor/program completion realities
  • 13. APTAGE.COM | 13 Proprietary AI that integrates the best thinking about managing uncertainty and risk. Elicit ranges, not averages Utilize team beliefs as probabilities Delphi Game theory Leverage intuition & mathematics Aptage Differentiators Our team has a unique combination • Data science (the mathematics of uncertainty) • Deep domain knowledge (econ of development) Our IP is a small data, in-place, learning AI • Continuously learns, predict, advices • Proprietary Algorithm (Trade Secret) • Although data available is small, Aptage can still provide actionable advice for strategy/execution AI Platform for Projects
  • 14. APTAGE.COM | 14 Thank you! Dr. Murray Cantor CTO & Co-Founder Murray@aptage.com John Gonzalez Vice President, Aptage Sales (248)697-8757 John.Gonzalez@aptage.com