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Tourism Vietnam - q3 - 2013
1.
Q3 2013 www.businessmonitor.com VIETNAM TOURISM REPORT INCLUDES
5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2017 ISSN 1747-9061 Published by:Business Monitor International
2.
Vietnam Tourism Report
Q3 2013 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2017 Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series Published by: Business Monitor International Copy deadline: June 2013 Business Monitor International Senator House 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: subs@businessmonitor.com Web: http://www.businessmonitor.com © 2013 Business Monitor International All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained.
3.
4.
CONTENTS BMI Industry View
............................................................................................................... 7 SWOT .................................................................................................................................... 8 Political ................................................................................................................................................... 9 Economic ............................................................................................................................................... 10 Business Environment .............................................................................................................................. 11 Industry Forecast .............................................................................................................. 12 Inbound Travel ...................................................................................................................................... 13 Table: Vietnam Inbound Tourism, 2010-2017 .......................................................................................................... 13 Table: Vietnam Inbound Tourism Top 10 markets by arrivals, 2010-2017 ('000) ..................................................................... 14 Outbound Travel .................................................................................................................................... 15 Table: Vietnam Outbound Tourism, 2010-2017 ........................................................................................................ 15 Table: Vietnam Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets by Departures, 2010-2017 ('000) ............................................................... 17 Travel .................................................................................................................................................. 17 Table: Vietnam Methods of Travel, 2010-2017 ......................................................................................................... 18 Hotels .................................................................................................................................................. 18 Table: Vietnam Hotel Accommodation 2010-2017 ..................................................................................................... 19 Table: Vietnam Domestic Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value, 2010-2017 ........................................................................ 19 Economic Analysis ............................................................................................................ 21 Economic Outlook ................................................................................................................................... 21 Table: Vietnam - Economic Activity .................................................................................................................... 24 Industry Risk Reward Ratings .......................................................................................... 25 Tourism Risk Rewards Ratings ................................................................................................................. 25 Table: Asia, Risk and Reward Ratings .................................................................................................................. 25 Security Risk Reward Ratings ................................................................................................................... 27 Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings ......................................................................................................... 27 Market Overview ............................................................................................................... 29 Table: Vietnam Major Infrastructure Projects ......................................................................................................... 30 Table: Top 10 Global Hotel Groups Present in Vietnam ............................................................................................... 31 Company Profile ................................................................................................................ 33 Huong Giang Tourist Company .................................................................................................................. 33 Saigontourist .......................................................................................................................................... 34 Global Industry Overview .................................................................................................. 35 Table: Total Receipts By Country, 2012-2013, (US$bn) ............................................................................................... 36 Table: Global Sporting Calendar, 2013-2022 .......................................................................................................... 38 Global Assumptions .......................................................................................................... 40 Table: Global Assumptions ............................................................................................................................. 41 Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 4
5.
Table: Global And
Regional Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y ......................................................................................... 43 Developed States .................................................................................................................................... 44 Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts ................................................................................................ 44 Emerging Markets .................................................................................................................................. 46 Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts .............................................................................................. 46 Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts (%) ......................................................................... 48 Demographic Forecast ..................................................................................................... 49 Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ........................................................................................ 50 Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) .................................................................................. 51 Table: Vietnam's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 .................................................................................................. 52 Table: Vietnam's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ........................................................................................... 52 Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 53 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................... 53 Tourism Industry .................................................................................................................................... 53 Tourism Ratings - Methodology ................................................................................................................ 54 Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 5
6.
7.
BMI Industry View BMI's
Vietnam tourism report looks at the strong long term potential for growth offered by this expanding market in the Asia Pacific region. The forecasted increases in inbound tourism combined with an improving domestic economy and higher outbound travel all point towards a very positive future for the Vietnamese tourism industry. 2010, 2011 and 2012 saw substantial increases in inbound arrivals with particularly strong growth of 19.09% in 2011. While we don't expect this exceptional growth to continue, we do expect to see not insubstantial growth of close to 6% per year for the remainder of the forecast period to 2017 with total inbound arrivals expected to reach over 9mn that year. Outbound travel from Vietnam is expected to show even stronger year-on-year (y-o-y) growth, increasing from 3.1mn in 2012 to 5.5mn in 2017 as the domestic economy continues to expand. 2013 saw the launch of the National Tourism Year, reflecting the Vietnamese government's prioritisation of the industry. As part of efforts to expand the tourism market the government is also making a series of investments in improving the country's transport infrastructure, with expansion of the international airports including a new terminal at Noi Bai Airport in Hanoi and investments in the country's rail network. Vietnam has a wide range of tourist attractions. The picturesque beaches of Phu Quoc and Ha Long Bay bring in leisure travellers, while the eco and wildlife tours cater for the more adventurous. The country also has a wide variety of cultural attractions such as Thien Mu Pagoda and historical attractions like the Ci Chi Tunners (used by the Viet Cong during the Vietnam War). As such there is plenty to entice first-time travellers, and to encourage their return. ■ Hotels continue to expand their presence in Vietnam, with several major resorts due to open in the future. BMI expects that the value of the hotel industry will increase by between 11.7% and 12.9% per year between 2013 and 2017. ■ The government continues to invest in improving the country's transport infrastructure, including the building of a new international airport due to open by 2020. ■ Arrivals will continue to be dominated by countries from within the Asia Pacific region particularly China, South Korea and Japan. ■ Key events in Vietnam in 2013 include the Ho Chi Minh City Flower Festival, the Hung Kings Festival, the International Tourism Expo in September and various sporting events. ■ This quarter BMI has given Vietnam an overall Tourism Risk/Reward rating of 59.3, placing it ninth in the Asia Pacific region, ahead of Malaysia but behind New Zealand. Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 7
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SWOT Vietnam Tourism SWOT Strengths
■ The Vietnamese government is very supportive of the tourism industry, actively promoting the sector and investing in infrastructure. ■ The country is in a prime position to take advantage of expanding markets in the Asia Pacific region. ■ A range of tourist attractions give the country enduring appeal. Weaknesses ■ The government is still prone to arbitrary and disruptive policy decisions at the macroeconomic level. ■ The health service is rudimentary, deterring some foreign visitors. ■ Some sectors of the tourism infrastructure are in need of extensive modernisation. Opportunities ■ Tax breaks are offered to foreign investors encouraging investment. ■ The government is easing some visa requirements opening the country to a wider range of visitors. Threats ■ Other countries in the region, such as Thailand, are more established tourist destinations for Westerners. ■ Recovery in other regional tourism markets could encourage a shift away from Vietnam. ■ A downturn in the global economy could depress inbound arrivals. Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 8
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Political SWOT Analysis Strengths ■ The
Communist Party of Vietnam remains committed to market-oriented reforms and we do not expect major shifts in policy direction over the next five years. The one- party system is generally conducive to short-term political stability. ■ Relations with the US have witnessed a marked improvement, and Washington sees Hanoi as a potential geopolitical ally in South East Asia. Weaknesses ■ Corruption among government officials poses a major threat to the legitimacy of the ruling Communist Party. ■ There is increasing (albeit still limited) public dissatisfaction with the leadership's tight control over political dissent. Opportunities ■ The government recognises the threat corruption poses to its legitimacy, and has acted to clamp down on graft among party officials. ■ Vietnam has allowed legislators to become more vocal in criticising government policies. This is opening up opportunities for more checks and balances within the one-party system. Threats ■ Macroeconomic instabilities in 2012 are likely to weigh on public acceptance of the one-party system, and street demonstrations to protest economic conditions could develop into a full-on challenge of undemocractic rule. ■ Although strong domestic control will ensure little change to Vietnam's political scene in the next few years, over the longer term, the one-party-state will probably be unsustainable. ■ Relations with China have deteriorated over recent years due to Beijing's more assertive stance over disputed islands in the South China Sea and domestic criticism of a large Chinese investment into a bauxite mining project in the central highlands, which could potentially cause wide-scale environmental damage. Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 9
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Economic SWOT Analysis Strengths ■ Vietnam
has been one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia in recent years, with GDP growth averaging 7.1% annually between 2000 and 2012. ■ The economic boom has lifted many Vietnamese out of poverty, with the official poverty rate in the country falling from 58% in 1993 to 14.0% in 2010. Weaknesses ■ Vietnam still suffers from substantial trade, current account and fiscal deficits, leaving the economy vulnerable to global economic uncertainties in 2012. The fiscal deficit is dominated by substantial spending on social subsidies that could be difficult to withdraw. ■ The heavily-managed and weak currency reduces incentives to improve quality of exports, and also keeps import costs high, contributing to inflationary pressures. Opportunities ■ WTO membership has given Vietnam access to both foreign markets and capital, while making Vietnamese enterprises stronger through increased competition. ■ The government will in spite of the current macroeconomic woes, continue to move forward with market reforms, including privatisation of state-owned enterprises, and liberalising the banking sector. ■ Urbanisation will continue to be a long-term growth driver. The UN forecasts the urban population rising from 29% of the population to more than 50% by the early 2040s. Threats ■ Inflation and deficit concerns have caused some investors to re-assess their hitherto upbeat view of Vietnam. If the government focuses too much on stimulating growth and fails to root out inflationary pressure, it risks prolonging macroeconomic instability, which could lead to a potential crisis. ■ Prolonged macroeconomic instability could prompt the authorities to put reforms on hold as they struggle to stabilise the economy. Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 10
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Business Environment SWOT Analysis Strengths
■ Vietnam has a large, skilled and low-cost workforce, which has made the country attractive to foreign investors. ■ Vietnam's location - its proximity to China and South East Asia, and its good sea links - makes it a good base for foreign companies to export to the rest of Asia, and beyond. Weaknesses ■ Vietnam's infrastructure is still weak. Roads, railways and ports are inadequate to cope with the country's economic growth and links with the outside world. ■ Vietnam remains one of the world's most corrupt countries. According to Transparency International's 2012 Corruption Perceptions Index, Vietnam ranks 123 out of 176 countries. Opportunities ■ Vietnam is increasingly attracting investment from key Asian economies, such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. This offers the possibility of the transfer of high-tech skills and know-how. ■ Vietnam is pressing ahead with the privatisation of state-owned enterprises and the liberalisation of the banking sector. This should offer foreign investors new entry points. Threats ■ Ongoing trade disputes with the US, and the general threat of American protectionism, which will remain a concern. ■ Labour unrest remains a lingering threat. A failure by the authorities to boost skills levels could leave Vietnam a second-rate economy for an indefinite period. Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 11
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Industry Forecast BMI View:
We are expecting to see growth across all areas of the tourism market in Vietnam between 2013 and 2017. An improving domestic economy is boosting outbound travel and further growth in the region is also driving up inbound travel, particularly from major markets like China. As such the market offers enormous potential for long term return on investments. Outbound travel has seen substantial growth in recent years, with over 17% growth in 2012. While we expect the rate of growth to decline slightly we do expect it to continue to remain impressive at over 11% growth y-o-y. This growth is based on the increasing strength of the domestic economy in Vietnam, resulting in a growing middle class with more disposable income to spend on travel, as well as an improvement in international travel connections. As a result BMI is forecasting that the total outbound travellers from Vietnam will reach over 5.5mn by 2017. Inbound travel will see a similar increase, dependent on the recovery of the global economy and the continued growth of the travel market in the Asia Pacific region, with annual arrivals expected to reach over 9mn by 2017. Vietnam already benefits from relatively well developed international transport links, with several international airports. However if tourism numbers are to continue to rise then the country will need to make substantial investments in the improvement and expansion of airport facilities. The country's rail network will also need to be expanded, as will the road network is tourism to the further regions of the country is to be expanded. The country's 15 domestic airports provide good regional connectivity. Most of the major hotel groups have some presence in Vietnam, and many have plans to expand on this in the future, not only in Vietnam, but across the wider Asia Pacific region. As such BMI expects to see substantial growth in the value of the hotels and restaurants industry between 2013 and 2017. Arrivals Outweigh Departures Total Inbound & Outbound Travellers, 2010-2017 ('000) TOTAL ARRIVALS: Total arrivals, '000 TOTAL DEPARTURES: Out-bound, total departures~ '000 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 0 5,000 10,000 Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam/BMI Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 12
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Inbound Travel Vietnam saw
impressive growth in inbound travel in 2012 of an estimated 13.86%. Although we expect the rate of growth to decline slightly, BMI expects growth to remain substantial at close to 6% per year for inbound tourism. By 2017 we expect that the total number of annual arrivals will reach over 9mn. Figures for arrivals from the Middle East, Africa and Latin America are currently unavailable, however forecasts for the other regions are shown below. Table: Vietnam Inbound Tourism, 2010-2017 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f Total Arrivals, '000 5,049.90 6,014.00 6,847.68 7,236.66 7,638.92 8,095.19 8,578.15 9,057.01 Total Arrivals, '000, % change y- o-y 6.85 19.09 13.86 5.68 5.56 5.97 5.97 5.58 In-bound, arrivals by region, North America, '000 533.20 546.30 557.39 576.14 577.77 582.22 588.27 596.42 In-bound, arrivals by region, North America, % change y-o-y 0.00 2.46 2.03 3.36 0.28 0.77 1.04 1.38 In-bound, arrivals by region, Asia Pacific, '000 3,473.10 4,357.10 4,809.03 5,128.03 5,468.67 5,850.16 6,247.66 6,647.52 In-bound, arrivals by region, Asia Pacific, % change y-o-y 0.00 25.45 10.37 6.63 6.64 6.98 6.79 6.40 In-bound, arrivals by region, Europe, '000 719.90 770.20 926.96 946.71 974.13 1,007.53 1,047.84 1,079.93 In-bound, arrivals by region, Europe, % change y-o-y 0.00 6.99 20.35 2.13 2.90 3.43 4.00 3.06 f = BMI forecast. Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, BMI Calculation Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 13
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BMI expects that
inbound arrivals from the Asia Pacific region will continue to dominate the tourism market in Vietnam. After minimal growth in 2010 we expect that arrivals from this region will grown by around 6.5% a year leading to a total annual arrivals figure of over 6.6mn by 2017. Arrivals from North America will see much small grown of around 1% a year as the economy continues to struggle to recover from the global credit crunch. Stronger growth will be seen in arrivals from Europe of around 3% a year between 2013 and 2017 and by 2017 we should see annual arrivals of just over 1mn from this region. The top 10 markets arrivals by country emphasises the dominance of the Asia Pacific region in terms of inbound travel to Vietnam. Arrivals from China make up the majority of travellers, accounting for over 2.1mn travellers to Vietnam by 2017, up from 1.5mn in 2013. Arrivals from South Korea will also show strong growth, rising from approximately 784,000 in 2013 to over 1.1mn by 2017. Japan, the third most popular country of origin for travellers to Vietnam, due to a stagnant domestic economy, will see slower growth over the forecast period. Outside of the Asia Pacific region Vietnam gets many visitors from the USA and France. By 2017 we expect that the USA will drop down from its current fourth place to sixth, as arrivals from Taiwan and Cambodia see particularly strong growth. Table: Vietnam Inbound Tourism Top 10 markets by arrivals, 2010-2017 ('000) 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f China 905.40 1,416.80 1,428.69 1,549.34 1,672.59 1,812.98 1,966.11 2,140.72 South Korea 495.90 536.40 700.92 784.10 875.44 983.03 1,105.36 1,191.58 Japan 442.10 481.50 576.39 578.12 579.85 581.59 583.33 585.08 USA 431.00 439.90 443.83 464.04 467.62 472.30 476.70 482.66 Taiwan 334.00 361.10 409.39 417.61 437.77 460.94 485.74 514.29 Cambodia 254.60 423.40 331.94 383.27 430.65 473.83 507.74 546.32 On The Up Total Arrivals by region, 2000-2017, ('000) Total arrivals, '000 (RHS) (RHS) In-bound, arrivals by region~ Europe~ '000 (LHS) (LHS) In-bound, arrivals by region~ North America~ '000 (LHS) (LHS) In-bound, arrivals by region~ Asia Pacific~ '000 (LHS) (LHS) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 0 5,000 10,000 Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam/BMI Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 14
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Vietnam Inbound Tourism
Top 10 markets by arrivals, 2010-2017 ('000) - Continued 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f Malaysia 211.30 233.10 299.04 297.00 313.91 332.75 347.14 363.92 Australia 278.20 289.80 289.84 307.87 309.66 311.45 313.24 315.04 Thailand 222.80 181.80 225.87 234.07 247.14 261.95 277.87 296.66 France 199.40 211.40 219.72 218.03 221.14 225.34 229.68 235.64 f = BMI forecast. Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, BMI Calculation Outbound Travel BMI has seen steady improvements in the domestic economy in Vietnam, with GDP growth of 5% in 2012 expected to rise to 7% in 2013 and continue at this rate through to 2017. By 2017 we therefore expect GDP to reach US$271.12bn, up from US$161.59bn in 2013. At the same time, we expect to see growth of 5.6% to 6.1% per year in terms of private financial consumption, declining lending interest rates and a steady reduction year on year in unemployment rates. These factors are resulting in the development of an affluent middle class able to spend more money on outbound travel from Vietnam. Table: Vietnam Outbound Tourism, 2010-2017 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f Total Out-bound, tourist departures, '000 2,238.27 2,702.93 3,181.00 3,540.44 3,964.91 4,424.98 4,959.44 5,530.79 Out-bound, tourist departures, % change y-o-y 26.27 20.76 17.69 11.30 11.99 11.60 12.08 11.52 Average Tourist Departure per 1000 of the population 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 Out-bound, resident departures by destination, Africa, '000 0.06 5.58 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.14 0.15 Out-bound, resident departures by destination, Africa, % change y-o-y -46.60 10,049.0 9 -98.58 22.78 11.34 12.04 11.57 10.37 Out-bound, resident departures by destination, North America, '000 54.30 57.84 64.84 72.14 80.79 90.09 100.49 111.43 Out-bound, resident departures by destination, North America, % change y-o-y 14.40 6.51 12.11 11.25 11.99 11.52 11.55 10.88 Out-bound, resident departures by destination, Latin America, '000 1.29 1.70 2.15 2.36 2.67 3.04 3.37 3.76 Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 15
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Vietnam Outbound Tourism,
2010-2017 - Continued 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f Out-bound, resident departures by destination, Latin America, % change y-o-y 24.47 32.40 26.23 9.72 13.05 13.79 11.00 11.48 Out-bound, resident departures by destination, Asia Pacific, '000 2,062.34 2,496.73 2,940.71 3,257.50 3,632.14 4,042.10 4,518.84 5,029.42 Out-bound, resident departures by destination, Asia Pacific, % change y-o-y 27.55 21.06 17.78 10.77 11.50 11.29 11.79 11.30 Out-bound, resident departures by destination, Europe, '000 73.21 78.61 96.62 117.23 140.89 162.84 189.15 216.86 Out-bound, resident departures by destination, Europe, % change y-o-y 5.92 7.37 22.92 21.33 20.18 15.58 16.15 14.65 Out-bound, resident departures by destination, Middle East, '000 47.07 62.47 76.59 91.12 108.31 126.79 147.46 169.18 Out-bound, resident departures by destination, Middle East, % change y-o-y 23.84 32.70 22.61 18.97 18.87 17.06 16.30 14.73 f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI Calculation Most travellers from Vietnam visit countries in the Asia Pacific region, in fact by 2017 we expect that these travellers will account for 5mn out of 5.5mn total outbound travellers. Europe is the second most popular region for travellers from Vietnam, and we expect that by 2017 there'll be approximately 216,000 visitors to Europe from Vietnam. North America is the third most popular destination, and we expect that tourists from Vietnam to North America will increase by between 11% and 12% per year. In fact we expect that travel to all other regions will increase throughout the forecast period, reflecting the increasing spending power of Vietnamese travellers. In particular we forecast high rates of The Top Three Outbound Tourism By Country, 2000-2017, ('000) Outbound departures to Singapore, '000 Outbound departures to Malaysia, '000 Outbound departures to Thailand, '000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 0 500 1,000 -500 1,500 Source: BMI Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 16
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growth to the
Middle East. Figures for travel to Africa have recently become available, and while travel to Africa is currently minimal we expect figures to grow steadily. The top 10 markets by departures table below gives further insight into the nature of outbound travel from Thailand, reflecting the dominance of countries from within the Asia Pacific region. In fact only two countries from outside this region, the USA and Russia, make the top 10. Cambodia is likely to remain the most popular destination for travellers from Vietnam, though Laos is likely to remain close behind. Thailand and Singapore are also popular destinations, with Thailand in particular benefiting from a variety of inexpensive and convenient travel links. Russia forms a very popular destination, following a long history of close cooperation between the two countries and substantial investment from Moscow in the Vietnamese tourism industry. Table: Vietnam Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets by Departures, 2010-2017 ('000) 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f Cambodia 514.29 614.09 763.14 860.29 929.22 1,017.15 1,134.61 1,258.10 Thailand 380.37 496.77 617.80 665.68 735.70 805.36 886.03 965.38 Laos 431.01 561.59 615.68 656.68 747.82 841.18 960.60 1,103.87 Singapore 322.85 332.23 400.77 475.12 559.04 645.21 730.94 814.33 Malaysia 159.27 173.85 218.55 229.02 249.96 277.84 307.90 339.53 Russia 68.63 73.85 91.17 111.97 135.49 157.32 183.51 211.11 South Korea 71.12 84.55 86.66 102.07 110.08 117.86 125.86 140.70 Saudi Arabia 46.10 61.53 75.33 89.70 106.74 125.06 145.56 167.10 Hong Kong 80.11 68.12 71.58 70.87 70.09 69.38 68.77 USA 54.30 57.84 64.84 72.14 80.79 90.09 100.49 111.43 f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI Calculation Travel Currently data is not available for transport and travel items receipts however we can see from the table below that growth is expected both in terms of air and rail travel, reflecting the potential of the transport industry in Vietnam. This growth is not only a result of the global economic recovery, but also arises from Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 17
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the investment the
Vietnamese government has put into infrastructure developments in recent years, with over 14 airport expansion projects alone currently underway. We expect that the number of air passengers will grow from 18.5mn in 2012 to 29.47mn in 2017, growth of 9-10% per year. At the same time we will see growth of around 9% per year in the number of domestic and international take offs. We expect to see smaller growth in the number of railway passengers per year of between 2.45% and 3.1% as travellers increasing turn to air travel in favour of long distance rail travel. These increases demonstrate the strength of the tourism market in Vietnam and the long term potential for investment. Table: Vietnam Methods of Travel, 2010-2017 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f Air transport passengers carried, mn, out-bound 14.10 16.27 18.50 20.18 22.16 24.31 26.81 29.47 Air transport passengers carried, mn, out-bound, % change y-o-y 27.32 15.39 13.72 9.07 9.82 9.69 10.27 9.95 Air transport, registered airline domestic and non-domestic takeoffs, '000 103.46 116.65 130.21 140.41 152.45 165.50 180.67 196.88 Air transport, registered airline domestic and non-domestic takeoffs, '000, % change y-o-y 23.58 12.74 11.63 7.83 8.58 8.56 9.16 8.97 Domestic Railway passengers carried, mn per km 4,378.00 4,932.43 5,092.58 5,250.68 5,405.37 5,555.53 5,700.60 5,840.31 Domestic Railway passengers carried, mn per km % change y-o-y 6.03 12.66 3.25 3.10 2.95 2.78 2.61 2.45 f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI Calculation Hotels Currently only limited data on the number of hotels is available for Vietnam. Based on industry evaluations we expect to see growth in the number of hotels present in the country throughout the forecast period, with growth of over 6% per year leading to the total number of establishments reaching over 10,000 by 2017. Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 18
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Table: Vietnam Hotel
Accommodation 2010-2017 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f Number of Hotels and establishments '000 6.09 6.78 7.47 7.96 8.48 9.06 9.67 10.28 - % change y-o-y 5.53 11.35 10.12 6.63 6.44 6.86 6.80 6.31 Source: BMI The strength of the tourism market in Vietnam is further reflected by the growth forecast in terms of the domestic hotels and restaurants industry value shown below. Table: Vietnam Domestic Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value, 2010-2017 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f Domestic Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value VNDbn 80,788.00 105,475.6 8 117,592.2 1 132,819.6 0 149,282.6 0 166,974.8 0 186,419.5 9 208,262.7 4 Domestic Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value VNDbn, % change y-o-y 19.87 30.56 11.49 12.95 12.40 11.85 11.65 11.72 Domestic Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value, US $bn 4.23 5.11 5.63 6.36 7.26 8.21 9.27 10.41 Domestic Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value, US $bn, % change y-o-y 11.59 20.85 10.33 12.80 14.23 13.14 12.92 12.28 Domestic Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value, EURbn 3.19 3.67 4.44 4.74 5.72 6.68 7.73 8.68 Domestic Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value, EURbn, % change y-o-y 17.78 15.33 20.76 6.91 20.52 16.82 15.75 12.28 Domestic Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value, % of GDP 4.08 4.16 3.99 3.95 3.91 3.88 3.86 3.84 Domestic Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value, US $ per capita 48.09 57.51 62.78 70.10 79.28 88.85 99.41 110.65 Domestic Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value, US $ per capita, % change y-o-y 10.39 19.57 9.18 11.65 13.10 12.07 11.89 11.30 Domestic Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value per employee, US$ 5,194.90 6,035.74 6,411.70 6,973.35 7,689.68 8,409.40 9,188.74 9,993.24 Domestic Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value per 7.11 16.19 6.23 8.76 10.27 9.36 9.27 8.76 Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 19
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Vietnam Domestic Hotels
and Restaurants Industry Value, 2010-2017 - Continued 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f employee, US$, % change y-o- y f = BMI forecast. Source: UN, ILO Between 2013 and 2017 we expect the value of the industry to grow from US$6.36bn to US$10.41bn, at a rate of approximately 13% per year. At the same time, due to the increasing strength of the domestic economy we expect that the value of the industry will decline as a percentage of the country's overall GDP. This is however a reflection of wider growth in the economy as opposed to a decline in the tourism market as demonstrated by the market's increasing value per capita and per employee. Overall therefore the future is looking very promising for the tourism market in Vietnam. The strong domestic economic conditions will drive up outbound tourism and see improvements in the country's transport infrastructure which will provide a further long term boost to inbound travel. We therefore expect to see growth across all market indicators including the overall hotel and restaurant industry values making Vietnam an attractive prospect for investment. Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 20
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Economic Analysis Economic Outlook BMI
View: The State Bank of Vietnam's surprise decision to cut its policy rate by 100 basis points from 10.00% to 9.00% suggests that policymakers are under increasing pressure to stimulate economic growth in 2013. We believe that the latest move will help reinforce government efforts to boost private sector investment. Given that money supply growth remains considerably low by historical standards, we believe that the risks of reigniting inflationary pressure remain manageable. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) cut its policy rate (refinancing rate) by 100 basis points from 10.00% to 9.00% on December 24 2012, just days before the General Statistics Office published its preliminary estimate for GDP growth to come in slightly weaker than expected at 5.0% for 2012 (compared with Bloomberg consensus of 5.2%). The surprise rate cut came amid growing concerns that mounting bad debt across the banking sector is deterring banks from issuing new loans to businesses, and that this could severely undermine government efforts to reignite economic growth in 2013. From our perspective, the move also suggests that policymakers are under increasing pressure to adopt more aggressive measures to stimulate economic growth in an attempt to stem the growing number of bankruptcies among small-and- medium enterprises (SMEs) and rising unemployment. This is closely in line with our view that the Vietnamese government's economic agenda will remain skewed towards boosting growth in 2013. Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 21
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Recovery On Track Vietnam
- Real GDP, VNDbn (LHS) & % chg y-o-y (RHS) Source: BMI, General Statistics Office We are seeing evidence that credit conditions are beginning to improve and expect demand for private sector credit to pick up gradually in H113. In addition to aggressive monetary policy easing by the SBV, the government has also announced plans to slash corporate income tax rates by two percentage points to 23% in 2013. We believe that lower lending rates and tax incentives will help to reinforce government efforts to attract foreign direct investment and boost private sector investment over the coming quarters. Inflation Still A Manageable Risk International organisations including the World Bank and IMF have warned against easing monetary policy too aggressively, which risks reigniting inflationary pressure. Although we acknowledge these risks, we highlight that the recent rebound in money supply growth remains considerably weak by historical standards. As the accompanying chart shows, prior to periods in which Vietnam experienced very high inflation (2008 and 2011), M2 money supply was expanding at a rate of 33.3% and 46.1% in 2007 and 2010, respectively. This compares with M2 growth that came in at a record low of just 6.0% in 2012 and Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 22
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our forecast for
a mild pickup towards 11.0% for 2013, suggesting that inflation is likely to remain manageable at under 7.0% in 2013. Credit Conditions To Improve In 2013 Vietnam - M2 Money Supply, VNDbn (LHS) & % chg y-o-y (RHS) f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, State Bank of Vietnam We acknowledge that the risk of a potential surge in commodity prices in 2013 - especially food prices, which make up around 40% of the consumer price index basket - could turn out to be a wildcard for policymakers. For now, we believe that overall conditions in Vietnam remain in favour of our forecast for real GDP growth to come in relatively strong at 7.0% in 2013. Expenditure Breakdown Private Consumption: We expect private consumption to grow at a robust pace of 5.6% in 2013. However, we note that the risk of a sustained collapse in exports and further bankruptcies among SMEs could potentially lead to widespread job losses in export-driven sectors. Uncertainties over the outlook for employment could, in turn, prompt households to cut back on spending. Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 23
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Gross Fixed Capital
Formation: We foresee a significant pickup in private sector investment growth in 2013. We believe lending rates will gradually ease over the coming months as the effect of recent rate cuts by the SBV begins to kick in. We are also seeing evidence that credit conditions are improving. Accordingly, we expect gross fixed capital formation growth to accelerate from 4.3% in 2012 to 5.9% in 2013. Public Spending: We expect total public spending to remain relatively resilient in 2013, expanding at a respectable pace of 5.4%. However, there is limited room for the government to increase spending further owing to concerns over the need to finance a potential bailout of ailing state-owned commercial banks. Net Exports: Net exports remain the biggest downside risk to our outlook for the Vietnamese economy, although we expect external demand to pick up as we head into H113. Vietnam has been recording an average monthly trade surplus of US$172mn since June 2012 (resulting in a year-to-date surplus of US $77mn) and we see the case for a substantial pickup in external demand on the back of a rebound in regional growth over the coming month. However, we believe that China's structural imbalances will return in H213, becoming a drag on regional growth. Accordingly, we still expect exports to expand at a moderate pace of 6.5% in 2013. Table: Vietnam - Economic Activity 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f Nominal GDP, VNDbn 2 1,658,389 1,980,914 2,536,631 2,950,684 3,361,036 3,813,158 4,301,043 4,832,660 5,422,488 Nominal GDP, US$bn 2 93.16 103.53 122.82 141.44 161.59 185.42 211.56 240.43 271.12 Real GDP growth, % change y-o-y 2 5.3 6.8 6.0 5.0 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.9 GDP per capita, US$ 2 1,072 1,178 1,383 1,576 1,782 2,025 2,289 2,577 2,881 Population, mn 3 86.9 87.8 88.8 89.7 90.7 91.6 92.4 93.3 94.1 Industrial production index, % y-o-y, ave 1,4 6.7 14.1 10.9 7.0 12.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 Unemployment, % of labour force, eop 4 6.0 4.3 4.5 6.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 Notes: e BMI estimates. f BMI forecasts. 1 at 1994 prices. Sources: 2 Asian Development Bank, General Statistics Office; 3 World Bank/UN/BMI; 4 General Statistics Office. Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 24
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Industry Risk Reward
Ratings Tourism Risk Rewards Ratings Table: Asia, Risk and Reward Ratings Rewards Risks Limits of potential returns Tourism Market Country Structure Risks to realisation of potential returns Market risks Country Risk Tourism Rating Rank Hong Kong 75.32 83.33 63.29 77.82 80.22 75.86 76.07 1 Thailand 75.99 85.30 62.04 60.64 68.09 54.54 71.39 2 Singapore 65.29 71.67 55.73 80.55 85.47 76.52 69.87 3 Australia 63.83 58.33 72.06 82.42 78.40 85.72 69.40 4 Macau 70.00 78.33 57.50 67.20 65.00 69.00 69.16 5 Taiwan 68.62 75.00 59.04 64.09 73.21 56.63 67.26 6 South Korea 63.93 60.00 69.83 66.58 70.39 63.46 64.73 7 New Zealand 49.88 26.67 84.69 83.25 76.65 88.66 59.89 8 Vietnam 60.91 60.00 62.26 55.57 65.19 47.70 59.30 9 Malaysia 54.33 50.00 60.83 67.13 74.52 61.09 58.17 10 Sri Lanka 57.66 60.00 54.14 50.31 63.77 39.29 55.45 11 Japan 46.12 25.83 76.55 67.96 67.99 67.93 52.67 12 Laos 56.48 61.67 48.70 41.76 63.88 23.66 52.06 13 China 48.02 43.33 55.05 58.97 77.14 44.10 51.30 14 Cambodia 56.89 66.67 42.21 36.25 33.02 38.90 50.69 15 India 42.22 40.00 45.54 46.72 35.61 55.82 43.57 16 Indonesia 36.47 32.50 42.41 51.13 63.64 40.89 40.86 17 Source: BMI Limits Of Potential Returns This is an evaluation of the sector's size and growth potential in each state, along with broader industry/ state characteristics that may inhibit its development. The reward ratings for tourism take into account the numbers and % growth of tourist arrivals over the past year and our forecasts for future growth over 2013. Vietnam has seen large increases in inbound travel in recent years and figures are expected to continue to rise. Although the fragile international economy means arrival figures may be depressed this should be Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 25
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compensated for by
growth from countries in the Asia Pacific region. The overall figures for tourism receipts and hotel occupancy were similarly enhanced and offset, and factored in accordingly, giving Vietnam a Tourism Market figure of 60. The Country Structure score takes into account labour costs and infrastructure. Vietnam has a relatively well developed infrastructure however it is in need of substantial investment for expansion and improvement projects across several areas including rail and air travel. As such Vietnam has a score of 62.26, relatively high in comparison to other countries in the region. Risks To Realisation Of Returns This section offers an evaluation of industry-specific dangers and those emanating from the state's political and economic profile that call into question the likelihood of anticipated returns being realised over the assessed time period. The market risks score takes into account short term political stability and regional stability - which is relatively strong in Vietnam. However, it also considers Vietnam's vulnerability to external factors - in particular continuing tensions with China. As such Vietnam scores 55 which accounts for the possibility for regional and domestic tensions impacting on tourism figures. Finally, BMI's proprietary country risk scores cover corruption, legal framework, bureaucracy, market openness and security risks. Vietnam repeatedly suffers from allegations of corruption at high levels of government and business which can deter international investment and as such it has a mid-range score of 47.7. Overall Vietnam is ranked ninth out of 17 countries in the Asia Pacific region with a Tourism Market figure of 59.3. Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 26
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Security Risk Reward
Ratings BMI's Security Ratings service, which integrates closely with our Country Risk service, offers a comprehensive comparative analysis of security risk in three key areas - interstate conflict, terrorism and physical safety for expatriate workers - across major states in each region. The ratings are combined to form a composite security rating to provide an overall guide to long-term trends and risks. We integrate our short- term political and economic ratings with the terrorism rating, to indicate a state's vulnerability to a sustained terrorist campaign or major terrorist attack. In all instances, the rated period is two years, with each country assigned a score out of 100, with a low score indicating a high level of risk. Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings State Interstate Terrorism Criminal Composite domestic risk Regional rank Composite security risk Ranking Singapore 91 87 99 93 1= 92 1 Australia 98 83 92 88 4 91 2= Japan 90 92 91 91 3 91 2= Taiwan 71 95 79 87 6= 82 4 South Korea 68 86 88 87 5 81 5 Malaysia 81 84 69 77 8 78 6= North Korea 48 98 88 93 1= 78 6= Vietnam 60 98 71 85 6= 76 8 China 80 85 59 72 9 74 9= Thailand 84 66 71 68 10 74 9= Indonesia 88 68 52 60 11 69 11 Philippines 84 49 40 45 13 58 12 India 68 47 53 50 12 56 13 Pakistan 46 26 37 31 14 36 14 Source: BMI Overall, expatriates living in Vietnam are not at high risk from physical safety threats, such as physical violence or kidnapping. The local community is at risk from petty crime, as well as the threat of bird flu. There is little or no terrorism risk in Vietnam. Thus, it receives a terrorist risk rating of 98. Vietnam's bid to normalise its defence and diplomatic relations has led to some cooperation on defence issues and the country taking on a more prominent role in the international community, such as its recent Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 27
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non-permanent membership of
the UN Security Council. By taking on such a role, Vietnam will no doubt be forging stronger ties with many states. However, it will also have to balance its new position against the expectations of more established allies. The country is ranked eighth in the region, reflecting its relative vulnerability to terrorism, which could have an impact on inbound tourism in the event of a large-scale event. Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 28
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Market Overview BMI sees
a very positive future for the tourism industry in Vietnam. Strong growth in the country's GDP, which we expect to increase by over 7% a year between 2013 and 2017, will contribute to an increase in both internal and outbound travel, providing a solid boost to the overall industry value. Economic improvements in the wider Asia-Pacific region will also result in a substantial increase in inbound travel. Foreign direct investment is increasing, and Vietnam has a particularly strong relationship with Russia who has invested heavily in the country's tourism industry. However there are lingering concerns surrounding corruption in the country and potential investors will need to consider these issues. Vietnam currently has eigth international airports, with a further 15 domestic (non-military) airports providing extensive connectivity around the country. However with inbound and domestic travel increasing the country will need to make substantial expansions and improvements to its transport infrastructure. Developing the tourism industry is a priority for the government, and as such plans are being developed to build new airports at Dong Nai, Lang Son, Phuker Quoc and Quang Ninh. New terminal buildings and runways are also being developed at several of the pre existing main airports. These expansions have helped the country to expand its flight routes, with Dragon Airlines offering new flights to Da Nang from Hong Kong from early 2013 and Korean Air, Asiana Airlines and Silk Air all increasing their flights to this region. Plans are also underway to develop the country's rail network, with the government investing US$9.5bn in the next three years in the improvement and expansion of the rail network. Projects are however frequently delayed by a lack of available funds, however with the improving domestic economy we should see more progress in the infrastructure improvements. This is part of the wider construction sector, which BMI expects will expand by around 5.3% in 2013. Steady Industry Growth Construction, Transport and Tourism Industry Values, 2010-2017 TRANSPORT: Transport infrastructure industry value, US$bn (RHS) INDUSTRY VALUE: Hotels and restaurants industry value, US$bn (LHS) CONSTRUCTION: Construction industry value, US$bn (LHS)2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 0 10 20 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Notes: 1 "Local news sources, industry sources, BMI Research (Major Projects Database)" 2 "UN/BMI Forecast" 3 "Vietnam General Statistics Office" Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 29
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A breakdown of
the country's 14 airport infrastructure projects can be found below. Table: Vietnam Major Infrastructure Projects Project Name Sector Value (US $mn) Capacity/ Length Timeframe Status Quang Tri Airport - Gio Linh District Airport Airports 27 na 2009-2015 Planning stage - Approved in February 2009 Noi Bai International Airport extension (includes T2 terminal) Airports 960 10mn passenger s /year September 2012 - November 2014 Contract awarded (September 2012); US $759mn ODA loan from Japan Phu Quoc International airport, Duong To Commune Airports 780 3mn passenger s/yr 2009 - December 2012 Under Construction, Construction on terminal started in end-Jan 2012 (October 2012) Chu Lai International Airport Airports 1000 4mn passenger s /year -2025 MoU for feasibility study approved Long Thanh international airport (Passenger terminal, runway, parking place), Dong Nai province Airports 6700 100mn passenger s /year 2015-2020 At planning stage, finalising investment plan (August 2012) Phu Bai International Airport upgrade, Thu Thien-Hue Province Airports 595 5mn passenger s/year 2011 - 2020 At planning stage, government to arrange financing for 2012 (Nov 2011) Tien Lang International Airport, Hai Phong Airports na 80mn passenger s /year 2010- At planning stage Pleiku Airport (two-phase upgrade), Gia Lai Airports 105 500000 passenger s /year 2011-2030 (first phase) At planning stage Cat Bi international airport (first phase) upgrading project, Haiphong, Northern Vietnam Airports 240 2mn passenger s/yr February 2013 - 2015 (first phase); - 2025 At planning stage, seeking financing (November 2012) Quang Ninh International airport, Doan Ket commune, Van Don region, Quang Ninh province Airports 250 2-5mn passenger s/yr 2013 - 2015 Preparation to be finalised by 2012, Project site moved to Doan Ket commune (Jan 2012) Vung Tau airport expansion Airports na na 2011 - At planning stage, received approval for new project site (September 2011) Van Don International airport, 45km from Ha Long Bay, Quang Ninh province Airports 1200 na October 2012 - At planning stage, South Korean companies expressed interest (October 2012) Lao Cai international airport Airports 62.6 na January 2012 - 2020 At planning stage, project announced (January 2012) Source: BMI Key Projects Database Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 30
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The tourism industry
in Vietnam is founded on a wide range of attractions, varying from rural eco and wildlife parks to vibrant metropolitan cities like Ho Chi Minch City. A range of UNESCO World Heritage sites including Ha Long Bay, Hoi An Ancient Town and the Citadel of the Ho Dynasty and historical tourism attractions are also very popular. On top of these attractions Vietnam also offers pristine white sandy beaches for traditional vacationers. The attraction of the country has been recognised by the world's top ten global hotel chains, many of whom have a presence in the country, in particular Accor, Best Western International, Hilton, Hyatt, Starwood, Marriott and Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG). Accor is one of the largest, with 15 hotels at a range of locations across the country including the capital city and several luxury beach resorts. The other chains have between 2 and 5 hotels in the country, with many having plans for new developments in the near future including Starwood's new Le Meridian resort due to open in 2014. Table: Top 10 Global Hotel Groups Present in Vietnam Global Hotel Group Presence in Vietnam Hotel Brands present in Vietnam Accor Hotels Accor group has 15 hotels in Vietnam, at a range of locations including business hotels in the capital city and large scale luxury beach resorts. Sofitel, Pullman, La Residence, McGallery, Novotel, Mercure, Ibis, Lifestyle Carlson Rezidor Hotel Group No Presence No Presence Choice Hotels International No Presence No Presence Best Western Best Western group has 5 hotels in 4 locations in Vietnam including a premier resort. Best Western, Best Western Premier, Hilton Hilton currently has two hotels in Vietnam, both in Hanoi one catering for business travellers and another aimed more at tourists in the French Quarter with spa facilities. Hilton Hyatt Hyatt has two hotels, one in Ho Chi Minh and a large resort and spa in Danang Park Hyatt, Hyatt Regency Intercontinental Hotels Group ICG has two resorts in Danang, four hotels in Hanoi and a further two hotels in Ho Chi Minh City. Crowne Plaza, Intercontinental Marriott Marriott has two hotels in Vietnam, one in Ho Chi Minh City and a newly opened JW Marriott hotel in Hanoi. JW Marriott, Renaissance Starwood Starwood currently has three Sheraton hotels in Veitnam. The group plans to open an expansive Le Meridien resort in early 2014 Sheraton, Le Meridien Wyndham No Presence No Presence Source: BMI Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 31
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Overall the future
is looking very positive for the tourism industry in Vietnam, if the country can overcome continuing concerns over corruption and domestic security concerns. Domestic political stability and continuing regional economic development are vital for the long term health of the market, as it is dependent on major markets within the Asia Pacific region. Continued investment in improvement of the country's transport infrastructure and widespread marketing campaigns should see the country well placed to take advantage of the forecasted increases in inbound and outbound travel, meaning the growth in tourism should continue to rise. Upwards Trend Hotel and Restaurants Industry Value (US$bn) (LHS), Total Arrivals ('000), (RHS), 2000-2017 Total arrivals, '000 (RHS) (RHS) Hotels and restaurants industry value, US$bn (LHS) (LHS) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 0 5 10 15 0 5,000 10,000 Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam/BMI/UN Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 32
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Company Profile Huong Giang
Tourist Company Company Overview Huong Giang Tourist Company was established in 1976 in Hue. It concentrates on the hotel industry, restaurants and other travel services, focusing on high end luxury travel. The group has expanded considerably since 1976 with a nationwide network of offices and support facilities. The company is part of the Pacific Asia Travel Association, the Japanese Association of Travel Agents and the American Society of Travel Agents. The Vietnamese industry's concentration on attracting tourists from the US and the start of direct flights between the countries bodes well for future occupancy rates. The firm has interests in: ■ The four-star Lang Co Beach Resort, between Hue and Da Nang. ■ The four-star Huong Giang Hotel in Hue. ■ Majority shareholder (51%) in the four-star Saigon Morin Hotel in Hue. ■ The leading five-star international hotel in Hue. It has a presence in all the major Vietnamese cities, including Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang and Hue. The company is involved in joint ventures, affiliated investments and cooperation with domestic and international partners. It has expanded rapidly throughout Asia and has offices in Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar, as well as in Europe. As part of its expansion strategy, the group has linked up with companies such as Turkish Airlines, Hai Long Junks and Bhaya Cruises to offer more travel options. Company Details ■ Huong Giang Tourist Company ■ 17 Le Loi Street Hue Vietnam ■ Tel: +84 (8) 832 221 ■ Chairman: Ngo Minh Duc ■ CEO: Tran Thanh Nam Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 33
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Saigontourist Company Overview Saigontourist
Travel Service Company was originally established by the state in 1975, and is now part of the Saigontourist Holding Company which was incorporated in 1999 at the behest of the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee. The group's activities include accommodation, food and beverages, recreation, travel and food processing - but its primary focus is hotels. The group owns more than 70 hotels ranging from three to five stars at a range of locations across the country. The company has more than 10% of the Vietnam's rated hotels. It operates eight travel service companies, 13 resorts and 28 restaurants, underlining its status as a 'state favourite' in investment terms. Saigontourist Travel Service Company is the biggest tour operator in Vietnam, offering both domestic and international tours. The company is an official member of a number of foreign travel agent associations, including the American Society of Travel Agents. Saigontourist said it will continue cultivating its links in international markets including Japan, China, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea. The company is also working with several cruise companies such as Costa and SuperStar, to take advantage of Vietnam's inclusion in cruise routes. Moving forward the group is expanding its tour services, having recently opened the country's biggest travel information centre in HCMC offering a range of tourist services across several languages. The company continues to perform well, with tourism revenue in 2012 reaching VND 2.08 trillion, up 26% on 2011 figures. Overall the group provided services for over 450,000 domestic and international tourists in 2012 reflecting the breadth of the company's market coverage. Company Details ■ Saigontourist ■ 23 Le Loi, District 1 Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam ■ Tel: +84 (8) 8292 291 ■ Director general: Tran Hung Viet Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 34
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Global Industry Overview BMI
View: Global tourist receipt levels are set to grow in 2013 to an estimated US$1.27trn, this will be the fourth consecutive year of growth since 2009. Growth will be attributed to an expected rise in the number of tourist arrivals in 2013, along with healthier levels of global disposable income which will feed through into higher levels of tourist spending. From 2013 to 2017, total receipts will grow between 5-8.5% per year, totalling around US$1.78trn by the end of 2017. International tourism receipts levels are set to rise by 5.97% in 2013 taking the total amount spent by tourists globally to US$1.27trn. This success can largely be attributed by two effects: firstly, international tourism levels are set to rise in 2013 by 4.2%, bringing total arrivals estimated to just over 1bn across the BMI tourism universe. A higher flow of international tourists traditionally generates higher levels of international tourist spending and this should have a positive effect on receipts levels of major tourist destinations. Secondly with the global economic recovery set to continue, disposable income levels will improve throughout 2013, allowing tourists to spend more abroad. Receipts per tourist in 2012 came in at US$1196.00, this will rise by 5.8% for 2013 to around US $1265.00 and will continue to grow at over 5% through till 2017. Every Region Set To Benefit Regionally, the Middle East will benefit the most. Total receipts are estimated to be US$46.1bn for 2013, a 12.3% rise from 2012. The dominant theme will be a rise in tourist arrivals within the region encouraged by the calmer political landscape, the region will see an extra 4.67mn visitors for this year taking total arrivals to 58mn. However, the Asian- Pacific region will also see an increase in total receipts of 7.2% to US $326.8mn for the year, while Africa will see growth of 8.7% and Latin America of 5.3%. On The Rise International Tourist Arrivals ('000) and Tourism Receipts (US$bn), 2000-2017 WORLD: Total arrivals, '000 (LHS) (LHS) WORLD: International tourism, receipts~ US$bn (RHS) (RHS) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 0 Source: National Sources/ World Bank/BMI Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 35
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After posting a
3.8% growth in total receipts for 2012, levels in developed states are estimated to be at US $727.1bn for 2013, an increase of 4.7%. In terms of global receipt levels, developed states make up 57.5% of total world tourism receipts. Going forward, we forecast that this region will benefit from the global economic recovery. Arrivals are set to rise by between 2% and 4% per year from 2013 to 2017, which will mostly be comprised of inter-regional European travel. From 2014 onwards, the growth in receipts is likely to be around 7% per year, taking overall receipt value in 2017 to just under the US$1trn. From 2013 to 2017, international tourist arrivals are to increase on average between 4-5.5% per year, with 1.2bn arrivals expected in 2017 across the BMI tourism universe. This is likely to be confirmed with tourist receipts levels set to grow between 5-8.5% per year, which will total to US$1.78trn at the end of 2017. Table: Total Receipts By Country, 2012-2013, (US$bn) Rank Country 2012 (US$bn) Rank Country 2013 (US$bn) 1 US 200.01 1 US 210.17 2 Spain 66.13 2 Spain 68.60 3 France 62.32 3 France 65.28 4 China 55.29 4 China 60.47 5 Germany 53.88 5 Germany 56.01 6 Italy 43.50 6 UK 44.37 7 UK 42.95 7 Italy 44.08 8 Hong Kong 35.57 8 Hong Kong 38.79 9 Macau 34.54 9 Australia 36.98 10 Australia 34.49 10 Macau 36.97 11 Thailand 33.65 11 Thailand 35.42 12 Turkey 28.01 12 Turkey 29.25 13 Austria 22.94 13 Austria 23.92 14 Malaysia 20.52 14 Malaysia 22.03 15 Netherlands 20.46 15 Netherlands 21.39 16 Canada 19.76 16 Canada 20.98 17 Switzerland 18.81 17 Switzerland 20.51 18 Singapore 18.21 18 Singapore 19.85 19 South Korea 18.07 19 Russia 19.75 Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 36
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Total Receipts By
Country, 2012-2013, (US$bn) - Continued Rank Country 2012 (US$bn) Rank Country 2013 (US$bn) 20 Russia 17.71 20 India 18.89 Source: National Sources, World Bank, BMI, BMI Forecasts US Remains Top Earner On an individual country-by-country basis, the US remains the top earner with regards to the tourism industry, and we forecast this will bring in around US$210bn for the country in 2013, an increase of 5.1% y-o-y from 2012. The next biggest earners are Spain, France, and Germany, whose tourism receipts will each see increases of over 3%. China, which overtook Germany in 2010 to become the fourth biggest tourism earner, is forecast to see tourism receipts worth US$60bn in 2013. Larger investment into tourist infrastructure and facilities within the country has made China a more attractive tourist destination for both Western and Eastern tourists. Chinese tourist arrivals for 2013 will grow by over 2mn to 29.8mn in 2013, showing y-o-y growth of 8.6%. Other notable movers are Australia, Russia and India. Australia will move into ninth place, overtaking Macau and we forecast receipts will grow by 7.2% in 2013. Russia and India will be in 19th and 20th places respectively. We forecast that Russia's tourism receipts will grow by over 10% in 2013, reaching US $19.75bn, this will be buoyed-up by higher arrivals of over 30mn. India will earn US$18.9bn from international tourism in 2013. This is in part due to the country's ongoing infrastructure developments, boosting its attractiveness as a tourist destination. Both Russia and India are likely to climb up the list over the next five years. Major tourism marketing and global sporting events will see Russia move to thirteenth in 2017 with receipts of US$32bn. India in 2017, will move to eighteenth with US$28bn. International Transport And Travel Receipts Follow Suit Similar increases in receipts levels for transport services for the forecast period 2013-2017 confirm the view of larger movements in tourist passengers. We forecast that overall global growth for this period will grow between 3% and 5% per annum until 2017, amounting to US$174.2bn in 2013 and US$216.9bn in 2017. Transport services will continue to make up around 15% of global total receipt levels. Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 37
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Table: Global Sporting
Calendar, 2013-2022 Year Country City/Cities Event Sport 2013 Russia Moscow IAAF World Championship Athletics Mixed 2013 South Africa Rustenburg, Johannesburg, Nelspruit, Durban, Port Elizabeth, Africa Cup of Nations Football 2013 Brazil Unconfirmed but short list is: Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Brasilia, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro FIFA Confederations Cup Football 2013 Myanmar Naypidaw Asia Games Mixed 2013 Sweden Malmo Eurovision Song Contest Singing 2013 Czech republic Prague UEFA Super Cup Football 2013 England London UEFA Champions League Final Football 2014 Bangladesh Dhaka, Chittagong, Narayaganj, Rajshahi, Sylhet, Khulna, 2020 World Cup Cricket 2014 Brazil Manaus, Fortaleza, Natal, Recife, Salvador, Brasilia, Cuiba, Belo Horizonte, Sao Paolo, Rio de Janeiro, Curitiba, Porto Alegre FIFA World Cup Football 2014 Not Confirmed Pan Arab Games Mixed 2014 Wales Cardiff UEFA Super Cup Football 2014 Scotland Auchterarder, Gleneagles Ryder Cup Golf 2014 Russia Sochi, Krasnaya Polyana Winter Olympics Mixed 2014 Scotland Glasgow Commonwealth Games Mixed 2014 China Nanjing Youth games (Summer) Mixed 2014 South Korea Incheon Asian Games Mixed 2014 Portugal Lisbon UEFA Champions League Final 2015 Australia and New Zealand Not Decided Cricket World Cup Cricket 2015 England Cardiff, London, Birmingham, Brighton, Bristol, Conventry, Dervy, Gloucester, Leeds, Leicester, Manchester, Milton Keynes, New Castle, Southhampton, Sunderland Rugby World Cup Rugby 2015 Canada Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Montreal, and Moncton FIFA Women's World Cup Football 2015 Canada Toronto Pan American Games Mixed 2015 Morocco Casablanca, Rabat, Fes, Marrakesh, Tangier, Agadir Africa Cup of Nations Football 2015 Georgia Tibilisi UEFA Super Cup Football 2015 Singapore Not Decided Asian Games Mixed Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 38
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Global Sporting Calendar,
2013-2022 - Continued Year Country City/Cities Event Sport 2015 Australia Melbourne, Sydney Brisbane Canberra Asia Cup Football 2016 Host not confirmed OFC Nations Cup Football 2016 France Lens, Lille, Paris, Bourdeaux, Lyon, Marseille, Nice, Toulouse, St- Etienne UEFA Euro Football 2016 Brazil Rio de Janeiro Olympics Mixed 2016 India Not Decided 2020 World Cup Cricket 2016 USA Chaska Ryder Cup Golf 2016 Norway Lillehammer Youth Games (Winter) Mixed 2017 Libya Not Decided Africa Cup of Nations Football 2017 England London IAAF World Championship Athletics Mixed 2017 Russia Moscow, Kazhan, Sochi, St Petersburg FIFA Confederations Cup Football 2018 Russia Kaliningrad, Kazan, Krasnodar, Moscow, Nizhny Novgorod, Rostov-on-Don, Saint Petersburg, Samara, Saransk, Sochi, Volgograd, Yaroslavl, Yekaterinburg FIFA World Cup Football 2018 South Korea Pyeongchang Winter Olympics Mixed 2018 Australia Gold Coast City Commonwealth Games Mixed 2018 France Paris Ryder Cup Golf 2019 England & Wales Not Decided Cricket World Cup Cricket 2019 Japan Tokyo, Sapporo, Yokohama, Osaka, Toyota, Kobe, Fukuoka, Sendai Rugby World Cup Rugby 2020 USA Sheboygan Ryder Cup Golf 2020 Host not confirmed OFC Nations Cup Football 2021 Qatar Not Decided FIFA Confederations Cup Football 2022 Qatar Al-Khor, Doha, Ash-Shamal, Al Wakrah, Umm Salar, Al Rayyan FIFA World Cup Football Source: BMI Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 39
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Global Assumptions Our global
real GDP growth estimates are unchanged since our last Global Assumptions update, at 2.9% for 2013 and 3.4% for 2014. In line with our view, global economic activity has picked up modestly in the past few months, following near-recessionary conditions in parts of 2012. Growth momentum in the US and China, especially, have impressed in the first two months of 2013, and suggest that a global recovery is still on. The eurozone remains a lingering concern, although we believe that the crisis has migrated from an acute to a more chronic phase that suggests tail risks of disintegration have reduced and output will begin to stabilise towards the end of the year. We continue to foresee a renewed slowdown in Chinese economic activity in the second half of the year, but for now, the global economy appears to be on more solid ground. For the time being, loose monetary policy and the removal of some major tail risks mean that the risks to global growth are more tilted to the upside than they were in 2012. Our headline global industrial production index increased by a modest 0.3% y-o-y in January, up marginally from 0.2% the previous month and confirming the return to positive growth in November. With trend growth around 2.5%, the recovery in production clearly has a long way to go. Meanwhile, we believe that real global consumption growth has bottomed, with 1.9% y-o-y growth in Q412 marking an uptick from what we believe to be the trough of 1.7% in Q312. The most notable growth forecast changes include a downgrade of the eurozone growth forecast in 2013 to -0.1% (from 0.0% previously), which incorporates a downward revision to our projections for key eurozone members including the Netherlands and Italy. We have also downgraded the US growth outlook slightly for 2013, owing mainly to base effects from a poor end to 2012; we still expect a second half rebound in growth, followed by a stronger 2014, however. Meanwhile, we have upgraded our Japanese growth forecasts owing to increasingly expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, but we remain wary of the long- term outlook. Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 40
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Table: Global Assumptions 2012e
2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f Real GDP Growth (%) USA 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 Eurozone -0.6 -0.1 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 Japan 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 China 7.7 7.5 6.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 World 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 Consumer Inflation (avg) USA 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Eurozone 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.0 Japan 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.7 China 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 World 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Interest Rates (Eop) Fed Funds Rate 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.25 3.00 ECB Refinancing Rate 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.50 2.00 Japan Overnight Call Rate 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.25 0.50 0.75 Exchange Rates (avg) US$/EUR 1.27 1.34 1.27 1.23 1.20 1.20 1.20 JPY/US$ 79.85 91.00 94.00 97.00 98.50 100.50 93.75 CNY/US$ 6.31 6.27 6.38 6.45 6.55 6.60 6.60 Oil Prices (avg) OPEC Basket (US$/bbl) 109.50 104.40 101.00 95.20 93.25 93.30 93.35 Brent Crude (US$/bbl) 111.70 110.00 105.00 102.50 101.00 99.00 99.00 Source: BMI Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 41
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We have revised
down our British pound sterling average forecast to US$1.53/GBP from US$1.61/GBP in 2013, and to US$1.57/GBP from US$1.60/GBP in 2014. Although we have been targeting the US $1.55-1.65/GBP range for a while now, we warn that the outlook for the pound is now fundamentally changing for the worse, with substantial monetary easing, the government's austerity drive losing credibility, and the reversal of safe haven flows to the UK. Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 42
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Table: Global And
Regional Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f World 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.4 Developed States 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.0 Emerging Markets 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.0 Asia Ex-Japan 6.1 6.3 6.1 5.6 Latin America 2.8 3.5 3.7 3.8 Emerging Europe 2.5 3.0 3.7 4.3 Sub - Saharan Africa 4.3 5.8 5.8 6.1 Middle East & North Africa 4.8 3.9 4.5 4.0 Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f Eurozone US$/EUR, ave 1.27 1.34 1.27 1.23 Japan JPY/US$, ave 79.85 91.00 94.00 97.00 Switzerland CHF/US$, ave 0.94 1.03 1.07 1.06 United Kingdom US$/GBP, ave 1.59 1.53 1.57 1.60 Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f China CNY/US$, ave 6.31 6.27 6.38 6.45 South Korea KRW/US$, ave 1,126.39 1,150.00 1,100.00 1,050.00 India INR/US$, ave 53.42 52.00 51.00 49.00 Brazil BRL/US$, ave 1.95 2.00 2.10 2.23 Mexico MXN/US$, ave 13.15 12.50 12.30 12.50 Russia RUB/US$, ave 31.06 30.51 31.25 31.75 Turkey TRY/US$, ave 1.80 1.80 1.79 1.79 South Africa ZAR/US$, ave 8.21 8.99 9.55 9.64 Source: BMI Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 43
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Developed States Our developed
state aggregate growth estimate for 2013 has fallen slightly to 1.2% from 1.3%, while we continue to eye a rebound in 2014 to 1.9%. We have downgraded our US forecast for 2013 to 2.1% from 2.3%, due mainly to negative base effects from late 2012. Nonetheless, our core view remains the same, which is that US economic activity should pick up as the year progresses, led by business and residential investment. Our 2014 growth forecast of 2.7% represents a major bounce from 2013, and is an upgrade from our previous projection of 2.5%. With US macro data looking strong, the Cyprus-triggered uncertainty in the euro area stands in stark relief. We have made downgrades to our 2013 real GDP growth forecasts for Italy, the Netherlands, and Portugal, which have translated into a drop in our 2013 eurozone growth forecast to -0.1% from 0.0% previously, and for 2014 to 1.1% from 1.2%. With leading indicators in Japan showing much sought-after improvements, we believe the optimism of a fiscal and monetary regime change will help drive a pickup in economic activity in 2013. As such, we have revised up our forecast for Japanese real GDP growth in 2013 to 1.4% from our previous forecast of 0.9%. That said, we maintain our view that the government's policies will not return the Japanese economy back to the path of recovery, but rather heighten the risk of a fiscal crisis. Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f Developed States Aggregate Growth 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.0 G7 1.4 1.4 2.0 2.1 Eurozone -0.6 -0.1 1.1 1.5 EU-27 -0.4 0.2 1.3 1.8 Selected Developed States Australia 3.6 2.1 1.8 2.5 Austria 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.9 Belgium -0.5 0.4 1.6 1.9 Canada 2.0 1.9 2.5 2.5 Denmark -0.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 44
45.
Developed States, Real
GDP Growth Forecasts - Continued 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f Finland -0.4 0.8 1.5 1.9 France 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 Germany 0.7 0.8 1.9 1.8 Ireland -0.5 0.3 1.4 2.0 Italy -2.4 -1.3 0.1 0.7 Japan 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.0 Netherlands -1.1 -0.6 0.9 1.5 Norway 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.5 Portugal -3.2 -2.4 0.3 0.7 Spain -1.4 -1.7 0.3 1.1 Sweden 0.8 1.0 2.5 3.2 Switzerland 0.7 1.5 1.8 1.6 United Kingdom 0.0 1.1 1.4 2.0 United States of America 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.6 Source: BMI Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 45
46.
Emerging Markets We estimate
emerging market (EM) real GDP growth of 4.9% in 2013, with a slight acceleration in growth in 2014 to 5.1%. Our forecasts for most EM countries have remained relatively stable since our last monthly update, with downgrades to our forecasts for Thailand and Turkey representing the most notable changes. Emerging Asia will remain an economic outperformer, with real GDP growth of 6.3% in 2013 reflective of a strong but temporary bounce in Chinese activity in H113 (the 2014 and 2015 projections mark a deceleration to 6.1% and 5.6%, respectively, from 7.5% in 2013). China's economic recovery continues to gain traction and we expect this to remain the case over the coming months. Signs of an early tightening cycle have faded in recent months, and inflation, although picking up, is of no real concern as of yet. However, we remain bearish on the country's growth prospects over H213 as rising inflation is set to put pressure on the People's Bank of China to cool the economy once again. Meanwhile, growth in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and emerging Europe is also set to pick up the pace in 2013, with reasonably steady growth going into 2014. Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f Emerging Markets Aggregate Growth 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.0 Latin America 2.8 3.5 3.7 3.8 Argentina 2.0 1.6 3.0 3.9 Brazil 0.9 3.5 3.6 3.9 Mexico 3.9 3.6 3.8 3.5 Middle East 4.8 3.9 4.5 4.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.3 5.8 5.8 6.1 South Africa 2.3 2.8 3.4 3.5 Nigeria 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.3 Saudi Arabia 6.8 4.1 3.7 2.3 UAE 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.8 Egypt 2.2 2.6 3.7 5.6 Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 46
47.
Emerging Markets, Real
GDP Growth Forecasts - Continued 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f Emerging Asia 6.1 6.3 6.1 5.6 China 7.7 7.5 6.7 6.0 Hong Kong 1.4 3.3 3.6 3.7 India* 5.0 6.2 6.7 6.6 Indonesia 6.2 6.1 6.4 6.5 Malaysia 5.6 4.6 4.4 4.2 Singapore 1.3 2.5 3.2 3.2 South Korea 2.1 3.0 4.6 4.6 Taiwan 1.3 3.0 4.0 4.1 Thailand 6.4 4.0 4.5 4.4 Emerging Europe 2.5 3.0 3.7 4.3 Russia 3.6 3.4 3.6 4.1 Turkey 2.6 4.0 4.7 5.2 Czech Republic -1.2 0.5 1.9 2.4 Hungary -1.7 -0.2 1.9 2.7 Poland 2.0 1.9 3.0 4.1 BMI is below consensus on growth in China (compared with the Bloomberg survey of analysts). However, we are more optimistic on the growth prospects of India and the US. We are in line with consensus on the eurozone. Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 47
48.
Table: BMI Versus
Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts (%) US Eurozone Japan Brazil China Russia India 2013 Bloomberg Consensus 1.9 -0.1 1.2 3.4 8.1 3.4 5.4 BMI 2.1 -0.1 1.4 3.5 7.5 3.4 6.2 2014 Bloomberg Consensus 2.7 1.1 1.3 4.0 8.0 3.8 6.5 BMI 2.7 1.1 1.3 3.6 6.7 3.6 6.7 Source: BMI, Bloomberg Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 48
49.
Demographic Forecast Demographic analysis
is a key pillar of BMI's macroeconomic and industry forecasting model. Not only is the total population of a country a key variable in consumer demand, but an understanding of the demographic profile is key to understanding issues ranging from future population trends to productivity growth and government spending requirements. The accompanying charts detail Vietnam's population pyramid for 2011, the change in the structure of the population between 2011 and 2050 and the total population between 1990 and 2050, as well as life expectancy. The tables show key datapoints from all of these charts, in addition to important metrics including the dependency ratio and the urban/rural split. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 49
50.
Table: Vietnam's Population
By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012e 2015f 2020f Total 67,102 74,008 78,758 83,161 87,848 89,730 92,443 96,355 0-4 years 9,340 9,212 7,002 6,776 7,186 7,186 7,026 6,529 5-9 years 8,685 9,193 9,124 6,921 6,703 6,885 7,143 6,982 10-14 years 7,504 8,604 9,142 9,038 6,844 6,539 6,668 7,104 15-19 years 7,127 7,408 8,535 9,064 8,963 8,161 6,806 6,628 20-24 years 6,492 7,003 7,305 8,420 8,954 9,115 8,892 6,745 25-29 years 5,893 6,361 6,879 7,167 8,284 8,602 8,862 8,803 30-34 years 4,884 5,779 6,250 6,765 7,058 7,475 8,202 8,779 35-39 years 3,965 4,794 5,688 6,163 6,677 6,770 6,991 8,131 40-44 years 2,420 3,884 4,710 5,614 6,086 6,304 6,609 6,925 45-49 years 2,039 2,358 3,802 4,653 5,548 5,761 6,012 6,536 50-54 years 1,933 1,968 2,287 3,739 4,580 4,936 5,449 5,914 55-59 years 1,946 1,843 1,887 2,201 3,617 4,001 4,446 5,305 60-64 years 1,544 1,822 1,737 1,767 2,076 2,573 3,455 4,268 65-69 years 1,283 1,391 1,659 1,582 1,621 1,649 1,927 3,233 70-74 years 919 1,084 1,194 1,439 1,389 1,384 1,438 1,729 75+ years 1,127 1,305 1,559 1,852 2,264 2,388 2,516 2,743 f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 50
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Table: Vietnam's Population
By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015f 2020f 0-4 years 13.92 12.45 8.89 8.15 8.18 8.01 7.60 6.78 5-9 years 12.94 12.42 11.58 8.32 7.63 7.67 7.73 7.25 10-14 years 11.18 11.63 11.61 10.87 7.79 7.29 7.21 7.37 15-19 years 10.62 10.01 10.84 10.90 10.20 9.10 7.36 6.88 20-24 years 9.68 9.46 9.27 10.13 10.19 10.16 9.62 7.00 25-29 years 8.78 8.60 8.73 8.62 9.43 9.59 9.59 9.14 30-34 years 7.28 7.81 7.94 8.14 8.03 8.33 8.87 9.11 35-39 years 5.91 6.48 7.22 7.41 7.60 7.55 7.56 8.44 40-44 years 3.61 5.25 5.98 6.75 6.93 7.03 7.15 7.19 45-49 years 3.04 3.19 4.83 5.59 6.32 6.42 6.50 6.78 50-54 years 2.88 2.66 2.90 4.50 5.21 5.50 5.89 6.14 55-59 years 2.90 2.49 2.40 2.65 4.12 4.46 4.81 5.51 60-64 years 2.30 2.46 2.21 2.12 2.36 2.87 3.74 4.43 65-69 years 1.91 1.88 2.11 1.90 1.85 1.84 2.08 3.36 70-74 years 1.37 1.46 1.52 1.73 1.58 1.54 1.56 1.79 75+ years 1.68 1.76 1.98 2.23 2.58 2.66 2.72 2.85 f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 51
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Table: Vietnam's Key
Population Ratios, 1990-2020 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015f 2020f Dependent ratio, % of total working age 1 75.5 71.2 60.5 49.7 42.1 40.9 40.6 41.6 Dependent population, total, '000 2 28,859 30,790 29,679 27,609 26,006 26,031 26,717 28,321 Active population, % of total 3 57.0 58.4 62.3 66.8 70.4 71.0 71.1 70.6 Active population, total, '000 4 38,243 43,218 49,079 55,552 61,842 63,699 65,725 68,034 Youth population, % of total working age 5 66.8 62.5 51.5 40.9 33.5 32.4 31.7 30.3 Youth population, total, '000 6 25,529 27,009 25,268 22,735 20,732 20,610 20,837 20,615 Pensionable population, % of total working age 7 8.7 8.7 9.0 8.8 8.5 8.5 8.9 11.3 Pensionable population, '000 8 3,330 3,780 4,411 4,874 5,274 5,421 5,881 7,706 f = BMI forecast; 1 0>15 plus 65+, as % of total working age population; 2 0>15 plus 65+; 3 15-64, as % of total population; 4 15-64; 5 0>15, % of total working age population; 6 0>15; 7 65+, % of total working age population; 8 65+. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI Table: Vietnam's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015f 2020f Urban population, % of total 20.3 22.2 24.3 26.4 28.7 29.7 31.2 33.9 Rural population, % of total 79.7 77.8 75.7 73.6 71.3 70.3 68.8 66.1 Urban population, '000 13,438.6 16,201.6 18,865.4 21,940.1 25,212.5 26,649.9 28,842.1 32,664.4 Rural population, '000 52,761.4 56,778.4 58,770.0 61,166.2 62,635.9 63,080.4 63,600.5 63,690.7 f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 52
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Methodology Methodology BMI's industry forecasts
are generated using the best-practice techniques of time-series modelling. The precise form of time-series model we use varies from industry to industry, in each case being determined, as per standard practice, by the prevailing features of the industry data being examined. For example, data for some industries may be particularly prone to seasonality, ie seasonal trends. In other industries, there may be pronounced non-linearity, whereby large recessions, for example, may occur more frequently than cyclical booms. Our approach varies from industry to industry. Common to our analysis of every industry, however, is the use of vector autoregressions. Vector autoregressions allow us to forecast a variable using more than the variable's own history as explanatory information. For example, when forecasting oil prices, we can include information about oil consumption, supply and capacity. When forecasting for some of our industry sub-component variables, however, using a variable's own history is often the most desirable method of analysis. Such single-variable analysis is called univariate modelling. We use the most common and versatile form of univariate models: the autoregressive moving average model (ARMA). In some cases, ARMA techniques are inappropriate because there is insufficient historic data or data quality is poor. In such cases, we use either traditional decomposition methods or smoothing methods as a basis for analysis and forecasting. It must be remembered that human intervention plays a necessary and desirable part in all of our industry forecasting techniques. Intimate knowledge of the data and industry ensures we spot structural breaks, anomalous data, turning points and seasonal features where a purely mechanical forecasting process would not. Tourism Industry There are a number of principal criteria that drive our forecasts for each tourism sector variable. Figures for the tourism sector data are based, where possible, on industry associations/operators, government/ministry sources and official data. Where these are unavailable, tourism forecasts are based on a range of variables: Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 53
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■ Government policy,
industry trends and expenditure levels stated in international and national press. ■ Industry trends and expenditure levels stated in tourism company official financial reports or releases. ■ Likely expenditure and growth patterns owing to international developments and demographic patterns. ■ Likely alterations in expenditure patterns owing to economic/political activity. Tourism Ratings - Methodology Our approach in BMI's Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) is threefold. First, we seek accurately to capture the operational dangers to companies operating in this industry globally. Second, we attempt, where possible, to identify objective indicators that may serve as proxies for indicators that were traditionally evaluated on a subjective basis. Finally, we include aspects of BMI's proprietary Country Risk Ratings (CRR) that are relevant to the tourism industry. Overall, the ratings system, which integrates with those of all 16 industries covered by BMI, offers an industry-leading insight into the prospects/risks for companies across the globe. Ratings System Conceptually the ratings system divides into two distinct areas: Rewards: Evaluation of sector's size and growth potential in each state, and also broader industry/state characteristics that may inhibit its development. Risks: Evaluation of industry-specific dangers and those emanating from the state's political/economic profile that call into question the likelihood of anticipated returns being realised over the assessed time period. Indicators The following indicators have been used. Overall, the rating uses three subjectively-measured indicators, and 41 separate indicators/datasets. Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2013 © Business Monitor International Page 54
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