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Come calcolare l’equity value di una startup

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Come calcolare l’equity value di una startup

  1. 1. www.StartupSaturday.it Collaborative Networking tra Innovatori @startsaturdays Startup Saturday Europe /StartupSaturday
  2. 2. Come calcolare l’Equity (Market) Value di una Startup Andrea Gigli @andrgig
  3. 3. Price = Value
  4. 4. Ingredienti di ogni valutazione
  5. 5. Bilancio (prospettico)
  6. 6. Bilancio Prospettico Stato Patrimoniale Asset = Debt + Equity Conto Economico +Ricavi -Costi =Utile(Perdita)
  7. 7. Tempo
  8. 8. Time is (part of the) value t = 1 anno t=0 t = 2 anni R R 100$ 100$ × (1+R) 100$ = (1+R) 100$ × (1+R) × (1+R) =100$ × (1+R) 100$+100$*R= 100$ × (1+R) R Terminal Value Present Value
  9. 9. Time in action t=5 100$ t=0 100$ 1+ t=5 t=3 t=1 t=0 1+ t=2 t=4
  10. 10. Tasso di Rendimento
  11. 11. Determinanti del Rendimento Rendimento base di un investimento liquido e non rischioso + + Premio di rendimento per rischio sistematico + + Premio di rendimento per il rischio di liquidità + + Premio di rendimento per il valore aggiunto dell’ investitore + + Premio di rendimento per aggiustare i CF proiettati
  12. 12. Tasso di Rendimento e fasi di funding Tasso di Sconto www.startupsaturday.it @startsaturdays /StartupSaturday Tasso Base Seed Stage1 Stage2 Bridge IPO
  13. 13. Seed Stage1 Stage2 8% - 20% 15% - 35% 30% - 45% 35% -60% www.startupsaturday.it @startsaturdays /StartupSaturday 45% - 70% Tasso di Sconto Tasso di Rendimento e fasi di funding Bridge IPO Fonte: Harvard Business Review *
  14. 14. Investitore
  15. 15. Tipi di investitore Investor Amount (euro) You have Goal Seed Financing Investor 25k-300k No BP, No full team, Hope No prototype Startup Financing Investor 200k-1mios Prototype, Impressive Team, Powerful Concept Show me who You are First-Stage Financing Investor 500k-2mios Working Product, Some Revenues Support to profitability Second-Stage Financing Investor 1mios-10mios Some profits Expansion Bridge Financing Investor … Profitable Company Time to IPO Restart Financing Investor … Troubled Company Exit
  16. 16. Modelli di valutazione di base
  17. 17. Come si valuta la tua idea? 1) Metodo dei moltiplicatori (similitudini) 2) Metodo dei Discounted Cash Flow (un investitore sceglie un business non un’azione) 3) Chicago Method (mix dei precedenti)
  18. 18. Metodo dei Moltiplicatori T = Exit Date 89:;<= >?@:AB t=0 -./012 345/67 = -./012 345/6) (1 + )) Moltiplicatore Equity Value = Proxy Redditività Startup ) × di mercato
  19. 19. Alcuni Moltipicatori Moltiplicatore Definizione PROS CONS • P/E ratio Market Value per Share Earnings per Share (EPS) Molti dati disponibili • EV/EBITDA • Utili sono una proxy dei cash flow Non soggetto a differenze in regole contabili Enterprise Value _ Earnings + Interest + Taxes + • Depreciation + Amortization • • Price/Sales Share price____ sales per share • Facile da calcolare Applicabile anche ad aziene in perdita Non soggetto a differenze in regole contabili • • • • • P/E dipende da regole contabili P/E puo dipendere da operazioni “straordinarie” Cash flows rappresentati in modo incompleto Non tiene conto del costo del capitale Pere e Mele insieme (EV/Sales sarebbe più adatto) Approssimazione comoda ma sbrigativa
  20. 20. Moltiplicatore = P/E C -./012 345/6) = Fattori Sistemici -./012 345/6TUU DEFGHIJ KFLFMG × E NOJPOQR, Fattori Specifici -./012345/6) VW X YZX[ = (1 + ))
  21. 21. Moltiplicatore P/E e Fattori Specifici Industry Name Automotive Bank Biotechnology Building Materials Computer Software E-Commerce Electric Util. Electronics Homebuilding IT Services Recreation Retail (Hardlines) Retail (Softlines) Retail/Wholesale Food Wireless Networking Number of Firms 12 416 214 43 191 64 20 123 22 63 51 79 42 30 58 Price/Current EPS 16.03 19.74 32.89 81.34 53.18 61.67 17.45 18.47 87.95 50.48 39.31 26.15 20.91 17.64 50.04 Price/Forward EPS 9.99 14.38 47.35 67.27 37.59 121.56 15.47 15.90 83.51 25.44 25.76 16.83 21.56 14.02 218.55 Fonte: Yahoo! Finance
  22. 22. Moltiplicatore (P/E) e Fattori Sistemici
  23. 23. Applicazione Metodo del P/E • L’utile atteso della startup è 2.5 mios/annuo al 5° anno • Il P/E atteso al 5° anno, data di Exit attesa dall’investitore, è 15 • Il valore al 5° anno della Startup è 15 × 2.5_`ab = 37.5_`ab • L’investitore richiede un rendimento del 65% 37.5_`ab -./012 345/6TUU = ≈ 3_`ab (1 + 65%) • Se l’investitore è disposto a investire 1MIOS pretenderà almeno il 30-35% della startup
  24. 24. Metodo dei Discounted Cash Flows Consideriamo i flussi di cassa futuri generati dall’azienda t=5 t=3 t=1 CF1 t=0 1+ t=2 CF2 CF3 t=4 CF5 CF4
  25. 25. Metodo dei Discounted Cash Flows Stato Patrimoniale r(WACC) Debt Asset Value - Debt Value } FCFE r(equity) FCF Asset = Equity + Equity Value
  26. 26. Metodo dei Discounted Cash Flows Il Valore dell’azienda oggi è hii61 345/67 = jkjl ( mnokk)l + jkjp ( mnokk)p +⋯+ -./012 345/67 = hii61 345/67 − t6u1 345/67 oppure -./012 345/67 = per N ∞ jkjVl ( mv)l + jkjVp ( mv)p +⋯+ jkjVr ( mv)r jkjr mnokk r
  27. 27. Calcolo dei Cash Flows EBIDTA (Earnings Before Interests, Depreciation, Taxes, Amortization) - ammortamento beni immatieriali EBITA (Earnings Before Interests, Taxes and Amortization) - ammortamento beni materiali EBIT (Earnings before Interests and Taxes) - Tasse Unlevered Net Income + Svalutazioni e Ammortamenti - Spese in conto capitale + Disinvestimenti - Aumento netto del Capitale Circolante Unlevered Free Cash Flow +/- interessi + interest tax shield + incremento debito Flow to equity
  28. 28. Calcolo dei Cash Flows Vedi foglio excel
  29. 29. First Chicago Method • 3 scenari del mondo possibili (successo, sopravvivenza, fallimento) • Per ogni scenario – Costruisci una previsione dei Cash-Flow dell’azienda fino alla data di Exit prevista; – Calcola il Valore dell’Azienda alla data di Exit impiegando un Moltiplicatore; – Sconta i cash flows e il valore alla Exit dell’azienda con il Rendimento richiesto dall’investitore. • La somma ponderata del Valore Attuale dell’azienda sotto ciascuno scenario, determina il Valore Attuale Atteso dell’azienda
  30. 30. Applicazione del First Chicago Method Success Survival Failure 4,000,000 300,000 0 15 7 0 Market Value at Exit Date 60,000,000 2,100,000 0 Present Market Value (R=40%) 11,150,000 390,000 0 0.4 0.4 0.2 After-tax Earnings alla Exit Date (5Y) P/E ratio Probabilità Expected Market Value w, xyx, zzz
  31. 31. Dealing with Uncertainty
  32. 32. Le Previsioni Non Sono Numeri Certi Prevedere il Risultato Economico di un’azienda è difficile. Anche se le ipotesi alla base di una previsione sono robuste, esistono degli scenari futuri del mondo che possono più o meno disattendere le attese. Uno strumento utile per avere un’idea di quanto può essere variabile la stima dei risultati economici è la tecnica Monte Carlo
  33. 33. Le Previsioni Non Sono Numeri Certi Gli strumenti per tener conto dell’incertezza più usati sono 1) Analisi di Scenario 2) Sensitivity Analysis 3) Tecniche Monte Carlo
  34. 34. Applicazione del Metodo Monte Carlo per la Previsione dei Cash Flows Vedi foglio excel
  35. 35. Altro € 182,250 € 177,358 € 172,465 € 167,572 € 162,680 € 157,787 € 152,894 € 148,002 € 143,109 € 138,216 € 133,324 € 128,431 € 123,538 € 118,646 € 113,753 € 108,860 € 103,968 € 99,075 € 94,182 € 89,290 € 84,397 € 79,504 € 74,612 € 69,719 € 64,827 € 59,934 € 55,041 € 50,149 € 45,256 € 40,363 € 35,471 € 30,578 € 25,685 € 20,793 € 15,900 Frequenza Distribuzione del Fatturato Distribuzione del Fatturato al 6° anno 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
  36. 36. Simulazione Monte Carlo del Fatturato € 180,000 € 160,000 € 140,000 € 120,000 € 100,000 € 80,000 71,244 € 60,000 50,515 € 40,000 35,995 33,081 € 20,000 24,530 15,214 €0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
  37. 37. Grazie! Andrea Gigli @andrgig Hello@StartupSaturday.it @StartSaturdayS

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