Can we transcend the problem of knowing with precision the extent of the dangers of Global Warming by logic alone?

1. # 0091-007
May 2013
International High School, San
Francisco
TOK ORAL PRESENTATION
ANDREW B

3. SUBSTANTIVE REAL-LIFE
SITUATION
Human Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
• Complexity
• Scientific understanding and consensus
• Political controversies
• What can be done?

4. DEFINING ONE OR MORE RELEVANT
KNOWLEDGE ISSUES:
How effectively can Reason as a
Way of Knowing (in particular
cold, hard logic) tackle a complex
scientific issue like global
warming?

5. “Del rigor en la ciencia”,
by Jorge Luis Borges

6. INTRODUCTION…
PERSONAL INVOLVEMENT IN THE
TOPIC
ESS * BIO HL* GLOBAL CITIZEN* DAD

11. CLIMATE MODELS WITH MULTIPLE
VARIABLES
Our most sophisticated models are necessarily
simplifications; no matter how sophisticated:
What is being included what is left out ?
What assumptions are made?
What is the predictive power?
Harder than predicting avalanches but easier than
predicting earthquakes

12. THE THREE RULES FOR TOK MAPS
• The map is not the territory but only a
representation
• No map can represent all aspects of the
territory
• Every map reflects the mapmaker’s point
of view

14. CONTROVER
SY
CONTENTION

22. SLEEP OF REASON?

23. GREG CRAVEN’S 2 X 2 DECISION GRID
HTTP://WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/WATCH?V=ZORV8WWIADQ

24. CONCLUSION
THE PRECAUTIONARY
PRINCIPLE ROOTED IN A LOGIC
TRUTH TABLE
• IB BIOLOGY CORE 5.2.4 Outline the precautionary principle.
The precautionary principle holds that, if the effects of a
human-induced change would be very large, perhaps
catastrophic, those responsible for the change must prove that
it will not do harm before proceeding. This is the reverse of
the normal situation, where those who are concerned about the
change would have to prove that it will do harm in order to
prevent such changes going ahead… If the possible
consequences of rapid global warming are devastating enough,
preventive measures are justified even if it is far from certain
that rapid global warming will result from current human
activities

25. REFERENCES
•
• Greg Craven
The Most Terrifying Video You'll Ever See (Uploaded 2007)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ
• Accessed 1/13/2004
• EnviroMedia Research: Only 3 Percent of Americans Don’t Believe in
Climate Change 2009
• http://www.enviromedia.com/enviroblog/?p=1023
• Accessed 1/13/2004
• Global warming projections
• http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/File:Global_Warming_Predicti
ons_png
• Accessed 1/13/2004
• AL Gore
• http://www.algore.com/
• Accessed 1/13/2004

26. ?