A lesson on statistics

Andrea Josephine
Andrea JosephineMD Pediatrics Post-graduate em ESIC Medical College & Pgimsr,chennai
A lesson on Statistics:
Data – Types, description and
interpretation
Dr Andrea Josephine R,
2nd year MD PG,
Department of Pediatrics,
ESIC Medical College & PGIMSR, Chennai.
Topics
 Types of data
 Measures of central tendency
 Measures of dispersion
 Measures of distribution
 Characterizing diagnostic tests – The test of a test
Types of data
1. Nominal:
 Qualitative data
 Characteristics of a variable – Categories
 Mutually exclusive, exhaustive
 No implied order
 E.g. Sex : Male/Female, Demographics
(Urban/Suburban/Rural)
Types of data
2. Ordinal:
 Qualitative data – Categories
 Rank/Order into a progression, mutually exclusive,
exhaustive
 Size of the interval not measurable or equal
 E.g. Satisfaction with treatment – Very satisfied /
Somewhat satisfied / Somewhat dissatisfied / Very
dissatisfied
Types of data
3. Interval:
 Quantitative data
 Meaningful intervals
 No absolute zero
 Ratio between 2 measurements not meaningful
 E.g. Temperature scale: In degrees Celsius, difference
between 2 measurements quantifiable, but ratio not
meaningful; 0⁰C does not imply a total absence of heat
Types of data
4. Ratio:
 Quantitative data
 Absolute zero
 Meaningful ratios
 E.g. Age (years), Weight(kg), Blood pressure(mmHg)
Types of data
1. Discrete:
 Only whole numbers possible / distinct categories
 E.g. Number of patients, number of syringes used, Gender,
hair colour
2. Continuous:
 Any value in a continuum
 E.g. Weight, Height, Serum creatinine
Measures of central tendency
1. Mean:
 Used for interval & ratio data
 Summation of all values divided by number of values in
the sample
 x = Ʃx
n
Measures of central tendency
2. Median:
 Used for ordinal data
 Half of the values lie above it, half below it
 If n is odd, arrange in order: Middle value = median
 If n is even, arrange and take mean of middle 2 values
Measures of central tendency
3. Mode:
 Used for nominal data
 Most frequently appearing category
 If 2 categories appear equally, bimodal
 Can be multimodal
Measures of dispersion
1. Range:
 Difference between highest and lowest values
 E.g. A set of values 102, 105, 109, 111 and 120. Range is
not 102-120. Range = 120-102 = 18.
Measures of dispersion
2. Interquartile range:
 Range of the middle 50% of the data
 Difference between the upper and lower quartile
Measures of dispersion
3. Mean deviation:
 Average of the absolute deviations from mean.
 Mean deviation = Ʃ ǀ x – x ǀ
n
Example
 Mean Deviation of 3, 6, 6, 7, 8, 11, 15, 16
 Step 1: Find the mean: (3 + 6 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 11 + 15 + 16)/8
= 72/8 = 9
 Step 2: Find the distance of each value from that mean:
Example (Contd.)
 Step 3. Find the mean of those distances:
 Mean Deviation = (6 + 3 + 3 + 2 + 1 + 2 + 6 + 7)/8 = 30/8 =
3.75
 So, the mean = 9, and the mean deviation = 3.75
 3.75 away from the middle
 Why take absolute value?
Measures of dispersion
4. Variance and Standard deviation:
 Variance(s2) = Mean of the squares of the deviation
= Ʃ (x – x )2
n
 Standard deviation(SD) = Ʃ (x – x)2
√ n
Smaller value of SD Closer the values cluster around
the mean
If a constant is added to all values, mean changes; Variance
and SD remain the same.
Measures of dispersion
5. Coefficient of variation(CV):
 CV = SD/Mean
 The units of SD and mean are same, hence CV is an
independent value.
 If both SD and mean are multiplied by a constant, CV
remains the same (Useful in ratio measurements).
 Not useful in interval level data, as CV decreases with
addition of a constant to each value.
Skewness
 Refers to the symmetry of the frequency-distribution
curve.
 Value of 0 – Unskewed, Positive value – skewed to the
right, Negative value – skewed to the left.
 Refers to the side of the longer tail, NOT that of the bulk
of the data.
Kurtosis
 Refers to the peak of the frequency-distribution curve.
 Mesokurtosis – Normal distribution curve
 Leptokurtosis – Peaked; Platykurtosis - Flat
Sensitivity
 Ability of a test to correctly identify patients with disease
 Sensitivity = True positives
True positives + False negatives
Patients
picked up, 80
Undiagnosed
diseased
population, 20
Sensitivity
Specificity
 Ability of the test to correctly identify patients who are
disease-free/healthy
 Specificity = True negatives
True negatives + False positives
Healthy,
80
Healthy
mis-
labelled
diseased, 20
Specificity
Positive predictive value
 Proportion of patients with positive test results who truly have
disease.
 PPV = True positive
True positive + False positive
 Answers the question: “I have tested
positive. Am I really diseased?”
Truly
diseased
80%
Healthy
mislabelled
diseased
20%
PPV
Negative predictive value
 Proportion of patients with negative test results who are
truly disease-free
 NPV = True negatives
True negatives + False negatives
 Answers the question: “I have tested
negative. Am I really disease-free?”
Truly
healthy
80%
Diseased
mis-
labelled
healthy
20%
NPV
PPV and NPV
 Highly dependent on the prevalence of a disease in a
given population.
 Less reliable in rare diseases.
 Less transferable from one population to another.
Likelihood ratio
 Combines sensitivity and specificity
 Positive likelihood ratio defines the extent to which a
positive test result increases the likelihood of having
disease.
 LR+ = Sensitivity
1 – Specificity
 If the LR + of a test is 1.36, a patient who tests positive is
1.36 times more likely to have the disease than a patient
who tests negative.
LR – Interpretation:
 LR+ over 5 - 10: Significantly increases likelihood of the
disease
 LR+ between 0.2 to 5 (esp if close to 1): Does not modify
the likelihood of the disease
 LR+ below 0.1 - 0.2: Significantly decreases the likelihood
of the disease
Likelihood ratio
 Negative likelihood ratio defines the extent to which a
negative test result decreases the likelihood of having
disease.
 LR- = 1 – sensitivity
Specificity
 If LR- of a test is 1.5, it means a patient with a negative
test result is 1.5 times more likely to be disease-free than
a patient with a positive test result.
LR – Points:
 Independent of disease prevalence
 Specific to the test being used
 Can be applied to the individual patient to evaluate how
worthwhile it is to perform a given test
Receiver Operator Characteristics Curve
 If the cut-off for a test is raised, both true and
false positive rate would decrease.
 True positive rate = Sensitivity
 False positive rate = 1 – Specificity.
 A graph between the 2 is ROC curve.
ROC curve – Area under curve
 Area under curve – Used to assess overall accuracy of a
test
 Value of 1 – High sensitivity and specificity
 Value of 0.5 – Zero diagnostic capability, Line
of zero discrimination, no better than tossing
a coin.
Using ROC curve and AUC to choose
between tests
 ROC curves:
References
 Biostatistics: The bare essentials, 3e by Norman and Streiner
 Health services research methods, 2e by Leiyu Shi
 Bewick V, Cheek L, Ball J. Statistics review 13: Receiver operating
characteristic curves. Crit Care. 2004;8(6):508-512.
 AG Lalkhen, A McCluskey. Clinical tests: sensitivity and specificity. Contin Educ
Anaesth Crit Care Pain (2008) 8 (6): 221-223.
Thank You
1 de 33

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A lesson on statistics

  • 1. A lesson on Statistics: Data – Types, description and interpretation Dr Andrea Josephine R, 2nd year MD PG, Department of Pediatrics, ESIC Medical College & PGIMSR, Chennai.
  • 2. Topics  Types of data  Measures of central tendency  Measures of dispersion  Measures of distribution  Characterizing diagnostic tests – The test of a test
  • 3. Types of data 1. Nominal:  Qualitative data  Characteristics of a variable – Categories  Mutually exclusive, exhaustive  No implied order  E.g. Sex : Male/Female, Demographics (Urban/Suburban/Rural)
  • 4. Types of data 2. Ordinal:  Qualitative data – Categories  Rank/Order into a progression, mutually exclusive, exhaustive  Size of the interval not measurable or equal  E.g. Satisfaction with treatment – Very satisfied / Somewhat satisfied / Somewhat dissatisfied / Very dissatisfied
  • 5. Types of data 3. Interval:  Quantitative data  Meaningful intervals  No absolute zero  Ratio between 2 measurements not meaningful  E.g. Temperature scale: In degrees Celsius, difference between 2 measurements quantifiable, but ratio not meaningful; 0⁰C does not imply a total absence of heat
  • 6. Types of data 4. Ratio:  Quantitative data  Absolute zero  Meaningful ratios  E.g. Age (years), Weight(kg), Blood pressure(mmHg)
  • 7. Types of data 1. Discrete:  Only whole numbers possible / distinct categories  E.g. Number of patients, number of syringes used, Gender, hair colour 2. Continuous:  Any value in a continuum  E.g. Weight, Height, Serum creatinine
  • 8. Measures of central tendency 1. Mean:  Used for interval & ratio data  Summation of all values divided by number of values in the sample  x = Ʃx n
  • 9. Measures of central tendency 2. Median:  Used for ordinal data  Half of the values lie above it, half below it  If n is odd, arrange in order: Middle value = median  If n is even, arrange and take mean of middle 2 values
  • 10. Measures of central tendency 3. Mode:  Used for nominal data  Most frequently appearing category  If 2 categories appear equally, bimodal  Can be multimodal
  • 11. Measures of dispersion 1. Range:  Difference between highest and lowest values  E.g. A set of values 102, 105, 109, 111 and 120. Range is not 102-120. Range = 120-102 = 18.
  • 12. Measures of dispersion 2. Interquartile range:  Range of the middle 50% of the data  Difference between the upper and lower quartile
  • 13. Measures of dispersion 3. Mean deviation:  Average of the absolute deviations from mean.  Mean deviation = Ʃ ǀ x – x ǀ n
  • 14. Example  Mean Deviation of 3, 6, 6, 7, 8, 11, 15, 16  Step 1: Find the mean: (3 + 6 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 11 + 15 + 16)/8 = 72/8 = 9  Step 2: Find the distance of each value from that mean:
  • 15. Example (Contd.)  Step 3. Find the mean of those distances:  Mean Deviation = (6 + 3 + 3 + 2 + 1 + 2 + 6 + 7)/8 = 30/8 = 3.75  So, the mean = 9, and the mean deviation = 3.75  3.75 away from the middle  Why take absolute value?
  • 16. Measures of dispersion 4. Variance and Standard deviation:  Variance(s2) = Mean of the squares of the deviation = Ʃ (x – x )2 n  Standard deviation(SD) = Ʃ (x – x)2 √ n Smaller value of SD Closer the values cluster around the mean If a constant is added to all values, mean changes; Variance and SD remain the same.
  • 17. Measures of dispersion 5. Coefficient of variation(CV):  CV = SD/Mean  The units of SD and mean are same, hence CV is an independent value.  If both SD and mean are multiplied by a constant, CV remains the same (Useful in ratio measurements).  Not useful in interval level data, as CV decreases with addition of a constant to each value.
  • 18. Skewness  Refers to the symmetry of the frequency-distribution curve.  Value of 0 – Unskewed, Positive value – skewed to the right, Negative value – skewed to the left.  Refers to the side of the longer tail, NOT that of the bulk of the data.
  • 19. Kurtosis  Refers to the peak of the frequency-distribution curve.  Mesokurtosis – Normal distribution curve  Leptokurtosis – Peaked; Platykurtosis - Flat
  • 20. Sensitivity  Ability of a test to correctly identify patients with disease  Sensitivity = True positives True positives + False negatives Patients picked up, 80 Undiagnosed diseased population, 20 Sensitivity
  • 21. Specificity  Ability of the test to correctly identify patients who are disease-free/healthy  Specificity = True negatives True negatives + False positives Healthy, 80 Healthy mis- labelled diseased, 20 Specificity
  • 22. Positive predictive value  Proportion of patients with positive test results who truly have disease.  PPV = True positive True positive + False positive  Answers the question: “I have tested positive. Am I really diseased?” Truly diseased 80% Healthy mislabelled diseased 20% PPV
  • 23. Negative predictive value  Proportion of patients with negative test results who are truly disease-free  NPV = True negatives True negatives + False negatives  Answers the question: “I have tested negative. Am I really disease-free?” Truly healthy 80% Diseased mis- labelled healthy 20% NPV
  • 24. PPV and NPV  Highly dependent on the prevalence of a disease in a given population.  Less reliable in rare diseases.  Less transferable from one population to another.
  • 25. Likelihood ratio  Combines sensitivity and specificity  Positive likelihood ratio defines the extent to which a positive test result increases the likelihood of having disease.  LR+ = Sensitivity 1 – Specificity  If the LR + of a test is 1.36, a patient who tests positive is 1.36 times more likely to have the disease than a patient who tests negative.
  • 26. LR – Interpretation:  LR+ over 5 - 10: Significantly increases likelihood of the disease  LR+ between 0.2 to 5 (esp if close to 1): Does not modify the likelihood of the disease  LR+ below 0.1 - 0.2: Significantly decreases the likelihood of the disease
  • 27. Likelihood ratio  Negative likelihood ratio defines the extent to which a negative test result decreases the likelihood of having disease.  LR- = 1 – sensitivity Specificity  If LR- of a test is 1.5, it means a patient with a negative test result is 1.5 times more likely to be disease-free than a patient with a positive test result.
  • 28. LR – Points:  Independent of disease prevalence  Specific to the test being used  Can be applied to the individual patient to evaluate how worthwhile it is to perform a given test
  • 29. Receiver Operator Characteristics Curve  If the cut-off for a test is raised, both true and false positive rate would decrease.  True positive rate = Sensitivity  False positive rate = 1 – Specificity.  A graph between the 2 is ROC curve.
  • 30. ROC curve – Area under curve  Area under curve – Used to assess overall accuracy of a test  Value of 1 – High sensitivity and specificity  Value of 0.5 – Zero diagnostic capability, Line of zero discrimination, no better than tossing a coin.
  • 31. Using ROC curve and AUC to choose between tests  ROC curves:
  • 32. References  Biostatistics: The bare essentials, 3e by Norman and Streiner  Health services research methods, 2e by Leiyu Shi  Bewick V, Cheek L, Ball J. Statistics review 13: Receiver operating characteristic curves. Crit Care. 2004;8(6):508-512.  AG Lalkhen, A McCluskey. Clinical tests: sensitivity and specificity. Contin Educ Anaesth Crit Care Pain (2008) 8 (6): 221-223.