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Dr. Arvind Virmani
Member, NITI Aayog
Introduction
— Macro perspective: High Income country mid-21st C
— LMIC(2000)=> UMIC(<2035)=> HIC (>2050)
— India in 2050
— Public welfare: PcGDPppp (150 =>90)
— Poverty: 2019: abs($1.9) <2%, mic($3.2) ~ 20%; =>hic($10)
— Poverty: 2019: abs($1.9) <2%, mic ($3.2) ~ 20%; hic($10)
— Economic size/power: GDP, VIPP (5 => 3)
— India relative to China (Gap closing)
— Conservative proj.: World Catch up-growth experience
— Key means for achieving objective
— Drivers of growth
February 24, 2023 2
av
Threats & Opportunities
— Opportunity
— Global & Indian demography: Share of working pop
— Supply Chain Diversification (LI manufacturing)
— Threats (=> Opportunity)
— Oil/energy prices: Leader in solar power
— Aggression & Grey war: Defense Industrial complex
— Weakness (=> Opp0rtunity)
— Level of education & job skills: Create Low, med, hi
— Low Female labor force participation: WFH+
— Structural employment trap: Spatial planning;District-
town-ind estate-rural integration(trans, network)
February 24, 2023 3
av
Key Pillars
1. Sustained, fast, economic growth
— PcGdp: Avg(30 year) = 5.8 % per year (base case)
— GDP = 6.4% given pop gr of ~0.6% per year
2. Equality of opportunity (EoO)
— Women, SC/ST, rural residents
3. Digital revolution/economy
— Virtuous cycle
— Equality of opportunity drives growth
— Fast growth drives Equality of opportunity
— Digital transformation will drive both
February 24, 2023 4
av
Welfare: Per capita Income
— Accelerated catch-up,
post-pandemic: Reforms
— India’s PcGdp will
increase from,
— 40% of world avg in
2019 to 130% in 2050
(LHS, purple line)
— 1/10th of USA in 2019 to
1/3rd in 2050 (RHS,
green line)
February 24, 2023 av 5
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
PcGdp(PPP): India/World & India/USA
PcGpp:Ind/wld PcGpp:Ind/us
Economic Welfare, Size & Power
— India’s PCGDP rank will
improve from 127 to 90
(ln 4, cln 3, 5)
— Living standard/quality
of life=EU of mid-1990s
— GDPpp: India/China 41%
to 80% (ln 6; clmn 5, 8)
— VIPP: India 0.15 => 0.83
(ln5); China 0.56 => 1.34
(ln 9), clmns 7, 9
February 24, 2023 av 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1
2 Pcgdp rank Pcgdp rank Gdp VIP Gdp VIP
3
4 India 6700 127 34477 90 9155 56515
5 India/USA 0.11 0.33 0.45 0.15 1.4 0.83
6 India/China 0.42 0.65 0.41 0.27 0.8 0.62
7
8 China 16117 134 52792 59 22567 74036
9 China/USA 0.26 0.51 1.1 0.56 1.9 1.34
10
11 USA 62530 12 103776 14 20525 39375
12 Note: Pcgdp of HICs - Country (Amount, year)
UK(34679,1997), Japan(34615, 1999)
Spain(34798,2000), Australia(35005,1997)
Table:PcGDP, GDP & VIPP
GDP percapita, PPP (const 2017int $) GDP, PPP (const 2017, int US$)
2019 2050 2019 2050
India/China:PcGdp(ppp,$), VIPP
— India’s PcGDP(PPP) is
proj. to increase from
42% to 65% of China’s
(purple line)
— India/China PcGDP in
US$ 0.25 (green line)
— India’s Economic power
(VIPP), is proj. to
increase from 0.27 to
0.62 of China’s (red line)
February 24, 2023 av 7
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
India/China: VIP, PcGdp(US$) & PcGdp(ppp)
VIP:Ind/ch PcG$:Ind/Chi PcGpp:Ind/Chi
Sustained, fast growth
— Role of Govt, Private & Social sector (NGOs)
— Government will focus on
— Public good provision & regulation of externalities
— Market environment: Pro-investment, pro-competition
— Welfare transfers, supporting the weakest
— Private sector: Compete, innovate, invest
— Social Sector: Community support of special needs of
disabled (physical) & disadvantaged (mentally)
— Global comparative advantage: Demographics
— Unskilled=>Semi-skilled=>Skilled labor(R&D)
— AI, expert sys: Subst skilled, compl/leverage semi-skilled
February 24, 2023 8
av
Reforms Undertaken
— India Bankruptcy Code (IBC): Management, bad debt
— Monetary Policy Committee: Flex Inflation targeting
— Constitutional Amendment: GST
— DBT(Aadhar, Jan Dhan acts, DCT-farmers)
— Natural Resource: Oil, coal, mineral, spectrum auction
— Corporate tax: 25%; Supply chain manf 15%
— Govt Monopoly=>Pvt(Coal, Oil; Defense; Space, AE)
— “Strategic Industry” Privatization(CPSEs, PSBs)
— Labor Codes (4<=44/29); Rules (28/31)
— Education Policy(incl Medical): Pvt & frgn entry
February 24, 2023 9
av
Growth environment: Future
— Competitive market óSustained, fast growth
— Institutional Reform
— Modern, professional regulatory system
— Contract enforcement system
— Criminal-justice system
— Social Reform
— Facilitate Female Labor Force Participation
— Break barriers to occupational mobility (e.g. caste)
— Growth Driver: Supply chain diversification (s10)
— Policy Reform for inclusive growth (s11)
February 24, 2023 10
av
Supply chain diversification
— Geopolitical Tsunami: Communist challenger
— High Tech decoupling: US/West viz China
— Partial Economic decoupling/deglobalization
— Friend shoring, reliability, credibility
— Two economic blocks(G2), with greater trade within
each block than across blocks
— PRC manf. monopoly [2030: Textiles(47%), EDP+Ofc
(40%), Telecom(39%), Clothing (32%)]
— Supply chain diversification: Just in Time=>Just in case
— Dualistic trade policy: PRC (symmetry), DCs (FTAs),
ROW (classic free trade)
February 24, 2023 11
av
Equality of Opportunity &
Social Welfare
— Un/under utilized Brain Power (IQ, EQ, SQ)
— Social constraints: Gender, Caste, Religion
— Rural disadvantage: Dis-economy of dispersed pop
— Education & skills: quality differences(Rural)
— Public Health, PH institutions & PH education
— Health services: Quality of information
— Employment/Job opportunity: Market failure
— Social network bias, Information bias; Training capacity
— Public goods Infra, Private provision, PPP; WFH
— Services vs Manufacturing/Industry
February 24, 2023 12
av
Knowledge economy
— Access to information: Get right information, to
right people, at right time, in the right place
— At all levels of education/skills; low medium, high
— Large externalities; high social returns
— 1) For low income, less educated, low skilled
— Basic education & digital literacy
— Operational knowledge: Ease of living
— Job skills, work knowledge
— Connectivity to Supply chains: Domestic & global
— Digital knowledge Intermediaries (Quaks & cheats)
February 24, 2023 13
av
Knowledge economy(cont)
— 2)Access to information: Medium skills
— Education, Health, Personal serv, Construction
— Standards, certification(4k-6k): Domestic quality
— Globalization: WFA, WFH; International standards
— 3) Higher Education & frontier skills
— Avg quality of PhD: Linkage & mentoring
— Global Value Chains
— AI, ML, expert systems
February 24, 2023 14
av
Digital India: Infrastructure
— Pioneering 3rd way; Innovation; Inclusion
— Provide universal access, eliminate digital divide
— Hard Infrastructure
— Connectivity: Panchayat, village, habitation
— Free access for poor: Govt centers, schools, PHCs, SHCs
— Soft Infrastructure: Innovation vs monopoly
— Professional, independent regulatory system
— To guard against monopolization, due to Network Externality,
Data rents; Economies of scale & scope; Algorithm bias.
— Public operating systems for free & fair competition
— Universal interfaces(UPI), stacks(health), platforms(ONDC)
February 24, 2023 15
av
Digital India: Leapfroging
— Scalability problem; solution
— India’s pop is 2x of US+EU
— Fin Tech,Tele-Education, Tele-Medicine
— Local, regional service hierarchy: break
— Hybrid supply to village clusters(shared STEM teachers)
— Urban specialist remote Rural delivery
— Access to Information(jobs), knowledge(work skills)
— Remote access to (India, World) jobs
— Work from Anywhere(WFA): Rural, small town, home
— WFH: Time/cost saving, Social acceptability (F)
February 24, 2023 16
av
Green India
— Broader, diversified portfolio approach
— Transport: E-scooters, cars; mass transit systems
— Energy: Solar power, energy efficient appliances
— Urban: Integrated plan, invest, admin;
— Natural cities (Soni & Virmani)
— Housing: Energy efficient designs, local materials
— Recycling: Repairable/reusable designs
— Environmental Regulation: Tech/professional (EPA)
— Green stack: Info exchange, green market
— LIFE = Life style for environment (e.g. Millet)
February 24, 2023 17
av
Tripolar World with Multipolar Rim
— Mid-century: USA, China, India
— Rim(Japan, Germany, UK, France, Russia)
— India’s Economic Power: VIPP = 0.83
— Global role: Reserve currency, IOCM, EM rating agency
— Globally integrated military industrial complex
— No 3 in demand for, & production of, weapons
— Peace through Deterrence:2020-40 (2025-35)
— High Tech decoupling: India needs flexibility
— Partial Ec. Decoupling (CCP Monopoly rents)
— India-USA partnership will play critical role
February 24, 2023 18
av
Conclusion
— India High Income country mid-century
— Average quality of life EU (1995)
— Sustained fast growth in per capita income
— Paradox: Power rank(3) >> Income rank(90)
— Equality of Opportunity for all citizens
— Using under-utilized human resources
— Digital economy
— Use to provide high quality social services
— Upgrade human resources
— Growth driver of hybrid economy
February 24, 2023 19
av
THANK YOU
February 24, 2023 av 20

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Arvind_Virmani_India_LMIC_HIC_staanford_2023_feb.pdf

  • 2. Introduction — Macro perspective: High Income country mid-21st C — LMIC(2000)=> UMIC(<2035)=> HIC (>2050) — India in 2050 — Public welfare: PcGDPppp (150 =>90) — Poverty: 2019: abs($1.9) <2%, mic($3.2) ~ 20%; =>hic($10) — Poverty: 2019: abs($1.9) <2%, mic ($3.2) ~ 20%; hic($10) — Economic size/power: GDP, VIPP (5 => 3) — India relative to China (Gap closing) — Conservative proj.: World Catch up-growth experience — Key means for achieving objective — Drivers of growth February 24, 2023 2 av
  • 3. Threats & Opportunities — Opportunity — Global & Indian demography: Share of working pop — Supply Chain Diversification (LI manufacturing) — Threats (=> Opportunity) — Oil/energy prices: Leader in solar power — Aggression & Grey war: Defense Industrial complex — Weakness (=> Opp0rtunity) — Level of education & job skills: Create Low, med, hi — Low Female labor force participation: WFH+ — Structural employment trap: Spatial planning;District- town-ind estate-rural integration(trans, network) February 24, 2023 3 av
  • 4. Key Pillars 1. Sustained, fast, economic growth — PcGdp: Avg(30 year) = 5.8 % per year (base case) — GDP = 6.4% given pop gr of ~0.6% per year 2. Equality of opportunity (EoO) — Women, SC/ST, rural residents 3. Digital revolution/economy — Virtuous cycle — Equality of opportunity drives growth — Fast growth drives Equality of opportunity — Digital transformation will drive both February 24, 2023 4 av
  • 5. Welfare: Per capita Income — Accelerated catch-up, post-pandemic: Reforms — India’s PcGdp will increase from, — 40% of world avg in 2019 to 130% in 2050 (LHS, purple line) — 1/10th of USA in 2019 to 1/3rd in 2050 (RHS, green line) February 24, 2023 av 5 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 PcGdp(PPP): India/World & India/USA PcGpp:Ind/wld PcGpp:Ind/us
  • 6. Economic Welfare, Size & Power — India’s PCGDP rank will improve from 127 to 90 (ln 4, cln 3, 5) — Living standard/quality of life=EU of mid-1990s — GDPpp: India/China 41% to 80% (ln 6; clmn 5, 8) — VIPP: India 0.15 => 0.83 (ln5); China 0.56 => 1.34 (ln 9), clmns 7, 9 February 24, 2023 av 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 Pcgdp rank Pcgdp rank Gdp VIP Gdp VIP 3 4 India 6700 127 34477 90 9155 56515 5 India/USA 0.11 0.33 0.45 0.15 1.4 0.83 6 India/China 0.42 0.65 0.41 0.27 0.8 0.62 7 8 China 16117 134 52792 59 22567 74036 9 China/USA 0.26 0.51 1.1 0.56 1.9 1.34 10 11 USA 62530 12 103776 14 20525 39375 12 Note: Pcgdp of HICs - Country (Amount, year) UK(34679,1997), Japan(34615, 1999) Spain(34798,2000), Australia(35005,1997) Table:PcGDP, GDP & VIPP GDP percapita, PPP (const 2017int $) GDP, PPP (const 2017, int US$) 2019 2050 2019 2050
  • 7. India/China:PcGdp(ppp,$), VIPP — India’s PcGDP(PPP) is proj. to increase from 42% to 65% of China’s (purple line) — India/China PcGDP in US$ 0.25 (green line) — India’s Economic power (VIPP), is proj. to increase from 0.27 to 0.62 of China’s (red line) February 24, 2023 av 7 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 India/China: VIP, PcGdp(US$) & PcGdp(ppp) VIP:Ind/ch PcG$:Ind/Chi PcGpp:Ind/Chi
  • 8. Sustained, fast growth — Role of Govt, Private & Social sector (NGOs) — Government will focus on — Public good provision & regulation of externalities — Market environment: Pro-investment, pro-competition — Welfare transfers, supporting the weakest — Private sector: Compete, innovate, invest — Social Sector: Community support of special needs of disabled (physical) & disadvantaged (mentally) — Global comparative advantage: Demographics — Unskilled=>Semi-skilled=>Skilled labor(R&D) — AI, expert sys: Subst skilled, compl/leverage semi-skilled February 24, 2023 8 av
  • 9. Reforms Undertaken — India Bankruptcy Code (IBC): Management, bad debt — Monetary Policy Committee: Flex Inflation targeting — Constitutional Amendment: GST — DBT(Aadhar, Jan Dhan acts, DCT-farmers) — Natural Resource: Oil, coal, mineral, spectrum auction — Corporate tax: 25%; Supply chain manf 15% — Govt Monopoly=>Pvt(Coal, Oil; Defense; Space, AE) — “Strategic Industry” Privatization(CPSEs, PSBs) — Labor Codes (4<=44/29); Rules (28/31) — Education Policy(incl Medical): Pvt & frgn entry February 24, 2023 9 av
  • 10. Growth environment: Future — Competitive market óSustained, fast growth — Institutional Reform — Modern, professional regulatory system — Contract enforcement system — Criminal-justice system — Social Reform — Facilitate Female Labor Force Participation — Break barriers to occupational mobility (e.g. caste) — Growth Driver: Supply chain diversification (s10) — Policy Reform for inclusive growth (s11) February 24, 2023 10 av
  • 11. Supply chain diversification — Geopolitical Tsunami: Communist challenger — High Tech decoupling: US/West viz China — Partial Economic decoupling/deglobalization — Friend shoring, reliability, credibility — Two economic blocks(G2), with greater trade within each block than across blocks — PRC manf. monopoly [2030: Textiles(47%), EDP+Ofc (40%), Telecom(39%), Clothing (32%)] — Supply chain diversification: Just in Time=>Just in case — Dualistic trade policy: PRC (symmetry), DCs (FTAs), ROW (classic free trade) February 24, 2023 11 av
  • 12. Equality of Opportunity & Social Welfare — Un/under utilized Brain Power (IQ, EQ, SQ) — Social constraints: Gender, Caste, Religion — Rural disadvantage: Dis-economy of dispersed pop — Education & skills: quality differences(Rural) — Public Health, PH institutions & PH education — Health services: Quality of information — Employment/Job opportunity: Market failure — Social network bias, Information bias; Training capacity — Public goods Infra, Private provision, PPP; WFH — Services vs Manufacturing/Industry February 24, 2023 12 av
  • 13. Knowledge economy — Access to information: Get right information, to right people, at right time, in the right place — At all levels of education/skills; low medium, high — Large externalities; high social returns — 1) For low income, less educated, low skilled — Basic education & digital literacy — Operational knowledge: Ease of living — Job skills, work knowledge — Connectivity to Supply chains: Domestic & global — Digital knowledge Intermediaries (Quaks & cheats) February 24, 2023 13 av
  • 14. Knowledge economy(cont) — 2)Access to information: Medium skills — Education, Health, Personal serv, Construction — Standards, certification(4k-6k): Domestic quality — Globalization: WFA, WFH; International standards — 3) Higher Education & frontier skills — Avg quality of PhD: Linkage & mentoring — Global Value Chains — AI, ML, expert systems February 24, 2023 14 av
  • 15. Digital India: Infrastructure — Pioneering 3rd way; Innovation; Inclusion — Provide universal access, eliminate digital divide — Hard Infrastructure — Connectivity: Panchayat, village, habitation — Free access for poor: Govt centers, schools, PHCs, SHCs — Soft Infrastructure: Innovation vs monopoly — Professional, independent regulatory system — To guard against monopolization, due to Network Externality, Data rents; Economies of scale & scope; Algorithm bias. — Public operating systems for free & fair competition — Universal interfaces(UPI), stacks(health), platforms(ONDC) February 24, 2023 15 av
  • 16. Digital India: Leapfroging — Scalability problem; solution — India’s pop is 2x of US+EU — Fin Tech,Tele-Education, Tele-Medicine — Local, regional service hierarchy: break — Hybrid supply to village clusters(shared STEM teachers) — Urban specialist remote Rural delivery — Access to Information(jobs), knowledge(work skills) — Remote access to (India, World) jobs — Work from Anywhere(WFA): Rural, small town, home — WFH: Time/cost saving, Social acceptability (F) February 24, 2023 16 av
  • 17. Green India — Broader, diversified portfolio approach — Transport: E-scooters, cars; mass transit systems — Energy: Solar power, energy efficient appliances — Urban: Integrated plan, invest, admin; — Natural cities (Soni & Virmani) — Housing: Energy efficient designs, local materials — Recycling: Repairable/reusable designs — Environmental Regulation: Tech/professional (EPA) — Green stack: Info exchange, green market — LIFE = Life style for environment (e.g. Millet) February 24, 2023 17 av
  • 18. Tripolar World with Multipolar Rim — Mid-century: USA, China, India — Rim(Japan, Germany, UK, France, Russia) — India’s Economic Power: VIPP = 0.83 — Global role: Reserve currency, IOCM, EM rating agency — Globally integrated military industrial complex — No 3 in demand for, & production of, weapons — Peace through Deterrence:2020-40 (2025-35) — High Tech decoupling: India needs flexibility — Partial Ec. Decoupling (CCP Monopoly rents) — India-USA partnership will play critical role February 24, 2023 18 av
  • 19. Conclusion — India High Income country mid-century — Average quality of life EU (1995) — Sustained fast growth in per capita income — Paradox: Power rank(3) >> Income rank(90) — Equality of Opportunity for all citizens — Using under-utilized human resources — Digital economy — Use to provide high quality social services — Upgrade human resources — Growth driver of hybrid economy February 24, 2023 19 av