SlideShare uma empresa Scribd logo
1 de 2
Baixar para ler offline
Kudos to July…                                                               - Amar Ranu1
Finally July brought some mark of respite amid a bleeding market which has lost all the
hopes of recoveries. The political drama on the risk of floor test turned positive for UPA
government under the blame of horse trading for our esteemed MPs who were sold for as
high as Rs 25 crores, if we believe the grapevine. The old man Shri L K Advani won’t be a
happy person as he lost the hope of becoming the Prime Minister even at 82.

  The stock market which nosedived overall on account of global cues celebrated the
departure of the leftist parties from the ruling arrangement with a spurt of 615 points in the
Sensex before worries over the economic realities are over. Sans Left, the UPA would take a
lead step in fulfilling its unfinished economic reforms which is a long story to watch.

The dismal IIP numbers begot the gloomy picture of Indian bourses to a large extent. The IIP
growth dropped sharply to 3.8 per cent in May 2008 compared to 10.6 per cent in May 2007.
Capital goods growth dropped to 2.5 per cent in 2008 as compared to 22.4 % in 2007. The
world markets hovered on crude oil prices which forced the global majors to retort to its
tone. Current pandemonium in oil prices is mainly attributed to the unregulated Over-The-
Counter markets and futures trading in oil. Even though the prices have eased after the
OPEC president vowed to bring down the price to $ 100 per barrel by increasing the
productivity, it could not bring many cheers to the global bourses. India ratings have already
been downgraded by Fitch and S & P has also pointed towards a downgrade from India’s
“Stable grade” to “Speculative grade” based on widening current account deficit, fiscal
deficit and spiraling inflation.

Despite a subdued note on macro-economic factors and RBI’s first quarter Credit Policy, the
SENSEX and NIFTY reacted sharply on a series of events sometimes on global cues also as
India now seems coupled with the globalised world. The bourses Sensex and Nifty ended
with a net positive adding an absolute gain of 10.76 per cent and 11.19 per cent respectively
for the month July 2008. The month saw a lot of volatility amid a series of episodes, not to
overlook the RBI monetary measures. The ex-ante GDP growth rate below 8 per cent, rising
interest rate, spiraling inflation and tight monetary policy have combined to force the
elephant on a slow-track. The inflation which eased surprisingly from its high again soared
to 11.98 per cent despite the assurance from the big R, Dr Y V Reddy. A series of Repo rate
and CRR hikes could not bring any cheer to the inflation. Surely the reflections would be
replicated in the coming weeks which could see another hike if the sentiments did not
improve as declared by big R.




1
 An independent columnist and writes for different websites and magazines on financial domain. He can be
reached at amarranu@yahoo.com.
Sensex and NIfty Movements
                                                                                             S
   N    4600                                                                         16000   e
   i    4400                                                                         15000   n
   f                                                                                         s
   t
        4200                                                                         14000   e
   y    4000                                                                                 x
                                                                                     13000
        3800
    V   3600                                                                         12000   V
    a   3400                                                                         11000   a
    l                                                                                        l
    u
               1 u8
               0 -J -0
               3 u8
               0 -J -0
               5 u8
               0 -J -0
               7 u8
               0 -J -0
               9 u8
               0 -J -0
               1 -J -0
                  u8
               3 u8
               1 -J -0
               5 u8
               1 -J -0
               7 u8
               1 -J -0
               9 u8
               1 -J -0
               1 u8
               2 -J -0
               3 u8
               2 -J -0
               5 u8
               2 -J -0
               7 u8
               2 -J -0
               9 u8
               2 -J -0
               1 u8
               3 -J -0
                                                                                             u
    e                                                                                        e
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                                      S & P Cnx Nifty             B S E Sensex



The biggest surprise was the BSE PSU Index which added the maximum gain of 22.78 per
cent. The interest rate sensitive indexes such as Bankex, Realty and Auto Index which were
hit badly in June showed good sign of respite. The Bankex gained 16.71% in July 2008
despite the sucking of its liquidity by RBI under CRR and Repo rate hikes. The BSE Realty
Index gained 20.47 per cent. Heavy weights like SBI, ICICI Bank etc showed some
whooping foreign exchange losses in terms of MTM. The Pharmaceutical sector ended with
a modest gain of 2.16% due to heavy MTM losses shown by its bellwether Ranbaxy. The
worst number in the midst of rosy performance of July 2008 was shown by IT sector. BSE
Teck Index ended with a meager gain of 1.69% while CNX IT Sector Index ended in net loss
of 3.93 per cent. On the debt front, the money market rates eased amid ample liquidity in the
system. The interest rate hikes have already pushed G Securities closing past 9.2 per cent.
The AAA corporate bond yields have already breached 11 per cent.
Amid such a choppy movement, the retail investors are left bleeding with no hedging on the
back. Their portfolios which have already plummeted to 50 per cent from its high should
turn to FMPs and Liquid Plus which are giving smart returns of 10 plus and 9 plus per cent
respectively.
                                    Secotral Movements
        8000
   I    7000
   n    6000
   d    5000
   e    4000
   x    3000
        2000
   V    1000
   a       0
   l
               1 u 8
               0 -J -0
               3 u 8
               0 -J -0
               5 u 8
               0 -J -0
               7 u 8
               0 -J -0
               9 u 8
               0 -J -0
               1 -J -0
                  u 8
               3 u 8
               1 -J -0
               5 u 8
               1 -J -0
               7 u 8
               1 -J -0
               9 u 8
               1 -J -0
               1 u 8
               2 -J -0
               3 u 8
               2 -J -0
               5 u 8
               2 -J -0
               7 u 8
               2 -J -0
               9 u 8
               2 -J -0
               1 u 8
               3 -J -0




   u
   e
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l
                  l




               B S E Bankex              B S E Healthcare Index    B S E Psu Index

               B S E Realty Index        B S E Teck Index

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais de Amar Ranu

Interest Rate futures - Managing Interest Rate Risks
Interest Rate futures - Managing Interest Rate RisksInterest Rate futures - Managing Interest Rate Risks
Interest Rate futures - Managing Interest Rate RisksAmar Ranu
 
Current Market Outlook June 2008
Current Market Outlook June 2008Current Market Outlook June 2008
Current Market Outlook June 2008Amar Ranu
 
Korean Financial Crisis
Korean Financial CrisisKorean Financial Crisis
Korean Financial CrisisAmar Ranu
 
S&L Vs Subprime Crisis
S&L Vs Subprime CrisisS&L Vs Subprime Crisis
S&L Vs Subprime CrisisAmar Ranu
 
Merchant Bankers Regulations
Merchant Bankers Regulations Merchant Bankers Regulations
Merchant Bankers Regulations Amar Ranu
 
Average Maturity, the playing factor for Mutual Fund
Average Maturity, the playing factor for Mutual FundAverage Maturity, the playing factor for Mutual Fund
Average Maturity, the playing factor for Mutual FundAmar Ranu
 
Presentation on Mutual Fund
Presentation on Mutual FundPresentation on Mutual Fund
Presentation on Mutual FundAmar Ranu
 
India Unnerved
India UnnervedIndia Unnerved
India UnnervedAmar Ranu
 
Indian Capital Markets
Indian Capital MarketsIndian Capital Markets
Indian Capital MarketsAmar Ranu
 

Mais de Amar Ranu (10)

Interest Rate futures - Managing Interest Rate Risks
Interest Rate futures - Managing Interest Rate RisksInterest Rate futures - Managing Interest Rate Risks
Interest Rate futures - Managing Interest Rate Risks
 
Current Market Outlook June 2008
Current Market Outlook June 2008Current Market Outlook June 2008
Current Market Outlook June 2008
 
Korean Financial Crisis
Korean Financial CrisisKorean Financial Crisis
Korean Financial Crisis
 
S&L Vs Subprime Crisis
S&L Vs Subprime CrisisS&L Vs Subprime Crisis
S&L Vs Subprime Crisis
 
Merchant Bankers Regulations
Merchant Bankers Regulations Merchant Bankers Regulations
Merchant Bankers Regulations
 
Average Maturity, the playing factor for Mutual Fund
Average Maturity, the playing factor for Mutual FundAverage Maturity, the playing factor for Mutual Fund
Average Maturity, the playing factor for Mutual Fund
 
Presentation on Mutual Fund
Presentation on Mutual FundPresentation on Mutual Fund
Presentation on Mutual Fund
 
India Unnerved
India UnnervedIndia Unnerved
India Unnerved
 
Jounced
JouncedJounced
Jounced
 
Indian Capital Markets
Indian Capital MarketsIndian Capital Markets
Indian Capital Markets
 

Último

RWA Report 2024: Rise of Real-World Assets in Crypto | CoinGecko
RWA Report 2024: Rise of Real-World Assets in Crypto | CoinGeckoRWA Report 2024: Rise of Real-World Assets in Crypto | CoinGecko
RWA Report 2024: Rise of Real-World Assets in Crypto | CoinGeckoCoinGecko
 
The Power Laws of Bitcoin: How can an S-curve be a power law?
The Power Laws of Bitcoin: How can an S-curve be a power law?The Power Laws of Bitcoin: How can an S-curve be a power law?
The Power Laws of Bitcoin: How can an S-curve be a power law?Stephen Perrenod
 
What Key Factors Should Risk Officers Consider When Using Generative AI
What Key Factors Should Risk Officers Consider When Using Generative AIWhat Key Factors Should Risk Officers Consider When Using Generative AI
What Key Factors Should Risk Officers Consider When Using Generative AI360factors
 
India Economic Survey Complete for the year of 2022 to 2023
India Economic Survey Complete for the year of 2022 to 2023India Economic Survey Complete for the year of 2022 to 2023
India Economic Survey Complete for the year of 2022 to 2023SkillCircle
 
2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation
2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation
2024.03 Strategic Resources PresentationAdnet Communications
 
Contracts with Interdependent Preferences
Contracts with Interdependent PreferencesContracts with Interdependent Preferences
Contracts with Interdependent PreferencesGRAPE
 
MARKET FAILURE SITUATION IN THE ECONOMY.
MARKET FAILURE SITUATION IN THE ECONOMY.MARKET FAILURE SITUATION IN THE ECONOMY.
MARKET FAILURE SITUATION IN THE ECONOMY.Arifa Saeed
 
The CBR Covered Bond Investor Roundtable 2024
The CBR Covered Bond Investor Roundtable 2024The CBR Covered Bond Investor Roundtable 2024
The CBR Covered Bond Investor Roundtable 2024Neil Day
 
Solution manual for Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...
Solution manual for  Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...Solution manual for  Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...
Solution manual for Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...mwangimwangi222
 
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 26.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 26.pdfStock Market Brief Deck for March 26.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 26.pdfMichael Silva
 
Taipei, A Hidden Jewel in East Asia - PR Strategy for Tourism
Taipei, A Hidden Jewel in East Asia - PR Strategy for TourismTaipei, A Hidden Jewel in East Asia - PR Strategy for Tourism
Taipei, A Hidden Jewel in East Asia - PR Strategy for TourismBrian Lin
 
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II DEPARTMENTAL ACCOUNTS.
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II DEPARTMENTAL ACCOUNTS.ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II DEPARTMENTAL ACCOUNTS.
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II DEPARTMENTAL ACCOUNTS.KumarJayaraman3
 
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II BRANCH ACCOUNTS NOTES
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II BRANCH ACCOUNTS NOTESACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II BRANCH ACCOUNTS NOTES
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II BRANCH ACCOUNTS NOTESKumarJayaraman3
 
LIC PRIVATISATION its a bane or boon.pptx
LIC PRIVATISATION its a bane or boon.pptxLIC PRIVATISATION its a bane or boon.pptx
LIC PRIVATISATION its a bane or boon.pptxsonamyadav7097
 
Hungarys economy made by Robert Miklos
Hungarys economy   made by Robert MiklosHungarys economy   made by Robert Miklos
Hungarys economy made by Robert Miklosbeduinpower135
 

Último (20)

RWA Report 2024: Rise of Real-World Assets in Crypto | CoinGecko
RWA Report 2024: Rise of Real-World Assets in Crypto | CoinGeckoRWA Report 2024: Rise of Real-World Assets in Crypto | CoinGecko
RWA Report 2024: Rise of Real-World Assets in Crypto | CoinGecko
 
The Power Laws of Bitcoin: How can an S-curve be a power law?
The Power Laws of Bitcoin: How can an S-curve be a power law?The Power Laws of Bitcoin: How can an S-curve be a power law?
The Power Laws of Bitcoin: How can an S-curve be a power law?
 
E-levy and Merchant Payment Exemption in Ghana
E-levy and Merchant Payment Exemption in GhanaE-levy and Merchant Payment Exemption in Ghana
E-levy and Merchant Payment Exemption in Ghana
 
Mobile Money Taxes: Knowledge, Perceptions and Politics: The Case of Ghana
Mobile Money Taxes: Knowledge, Perceptions and Politics: The Case of GhanaMobile Money Taxes: Knowledge, Perceptions and Politics: The Case of Ghana
Mobile Money Taxes: Knowledge, Perceptions and Politics: The Case of Ghana
 
What Key Factors Should Risk Officers Consider When Using Generative AI
What Key Factors Should Risk Officers Consider When Using Generative AIWhat Key Factors Should Risk Officers Consider When Using Generative AI
What Key Factors Should Risk Officers Consider When Using Generative AI
 
Digital Financial Services Taxation in Africa
Digital Financial Services Taxation in AfricaDigital Financial Services Taxation in Africa
Digital Financial Services Taxation in Africa
 
India Economic Survey Complete for the year of 2022 to 2023
India Economic Survey Complete for the year of 2022 to 2023India Economic Survey Complete for the year of 2022 to 2023
India Economic Survey Complete for the year of 2022 to 2023
 
2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation
2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation
2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation
 
Contracts with Interdependent Preferences
Contracts with Interdependent PreferencesContracts with Interdependent Preferences
Contracts with Interdependent Preferences
 
MARKET FAILURE SITUATION IN THE ECONOMY.
MARKET FAILURE SITUATION IN THE ECONOMY.MARKET FAILURE SITUATION IN THE ECONOMY.
MARKET FAILURE SITUATION IN THE ECONOMY.
 
The CBR Covered Bond Investor Roundtable 2024
The CBR Covered Bond Investor Roundtable 2024The CBR Covered Bond Investor Roundtable 2024
The CBR Covered Bond Investor Roundtable 2024
 
Solution manual for Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...
Solution manual for  Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...Solution manual for  Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...
Solution manual for Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...
 
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 26.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 26.pdfStock Market Brief Deck for March 26.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 26.pdf
 
Taipei, A Hidden Jewel in East Asia - PR Strategy for Tourism
Taipei, A Hidden Jewel in East Asia - PR Strategy for TourismTaipei, A Hidden Jewel in East Asia - PR Strategy for Tourism
Taipei, A Hidden Jewel in East Asia - PR Strategy for Tourism
 
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 21. (01.2024) Ukrainian Business in War...
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 21. (01.2024) Ukrainian Business in War...New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 21. (01.2024) Ukrainian Business in War...
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 21. (01.2024) Ukrainian Business in War...
 
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No.230, March 2024
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No.230, March 2024Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No.230, March 2024
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No.230, March 2024
 
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II DEPARTMENTAL ACCOUNTS.
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II DEPARTMENTAL ACCOUNTS.ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II DEPARTMENTAL ACCOUNTS.
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II DEPARTMENTAL ACCOUNTS.
 
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II BRANCH ACCOUNTS NOTES
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II BRANCH ACCOUNTS NOTESACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II BRANCH ACCOUNTS NOTES
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II BRANCH ACCOUNTS NOTES
 
LIC PRIVATISATION its a bane or boon.pptx
LIC PRIVATISATION its a bane or boon.pptxLIC PRIVATISATION its a bane or boon.pptx
LIC PRIVATISATION its a bane or boon.pptx
 
Hungarys economy made by Robert Miklos
Hungarys economy   made by Robert MiklosHungarys economy   made by Robert Miklos
Hungarys economy made by Robert Miklos
 

Market Wrap July 2008

  • 1. Kudos to July… - Amar Ranu1 Finally July brought some mark of respite amid a bleeding market which has lost all the hopes of recoveries. The political drama on the risk of floor test turned positive for UPA government under the blame of horse trading for our esteemed MPs who were sold for as high as Rs 25 crores, if we believe the grapevine. The old man Shri L K Advani won’t be a happy person as he lost the hope of becoming the Prime Minister even at 82. The stock market which nosedived overall on account of global cues celebrated the departure of the leftist parties from the ruling arrangement with a spurt of 615 points in the Sensex before worries over the economic realities are over. Sans Left, the UPA would take a lead step in fulfilling its unfinished economic reforms which is a long story to watch. The dismal IIP numbers begot the gloomy picture of Indian bourses to a large extent. The IIP growth dropped sharply to 3.8 per cent in May 2008 compared to 10.6 per cent in May 2007. Capital goods growth dropped to 2.5 per cent in 2008 as compared to 22.4 % in 2007. The world markets hovered on crude oil prices which forced the global majors to retort to its tone. Current pandemonium in oil prices is mainly attributed to the unregulated Over-The- Counter markets and futures trading in oil. Even though the prices have eased after the OPEC president vowed to bring down the price to $ 100 per barrel by increasing the productivity, it could not bring many cheers to the global bourses. India ratings have already been downgraded by Fitch and S & P has also pointed towards a downgrade from India’s “Stable grade” to “Speculative grade” based on widening current account deficit, fiscal deficit and spiraling inflation. Despite a subdued note on macro-economic factors and RBI’s first quarter Credit Policy, the SENSEX and NIFTY reacted sharply on a series of events sometimes on global cues also as India now seems coupled with the globalised world. The bourses Sensex and Nifty ended with a net positive adding an absolute gain of 10.76 per cent and 11.19 per cent respectively for the month July 2008. The month saw a lot of volatility amid a series of episodes, not to overlook the RBI monetary measures. The ex-ante GDP growth rate below 8 per cent, rising interest rate, spiraling inflation and tight monetary policy have combined to force the elephant on a slow-track. The inflation which eased surprisingly from its high again soared to 11.98 per cent despite the assurance from the big R, Dr Y V Reddy. A series of Repo rate and CRR hikes could not bring any cheer to the inflation. Surely the reflections would be replicated in the coming weeks which could see another hike if the sentiments did not improve as declared by big R. 1 An independent columnist and writes for different websites and magazines on financial domain. He can be reached at amarranu@yahoo.com.
  • 2. Sensex and NIfty Movements S N 4600 16000 e i 4400 15000 n f s t 4200 14000 e y 4000 x 13000 3800 V 3600 12000 V a 3400 11000 a l l u 1 u8 0 -J -0 3 u8 0 -J -0 5 u8 0 -J -0 7 u8 0 -J -0 9 u8 0 -J -0 1 -J -0 u8 3 u8 1 -J -0 5 u8 1 -J -0 7 u8 1 -J -0 9 u8 1 -J -0 1 u8 2 -J -0 3 u8 2 -J -0 5 u8 2 -J -0 7 u8 2 -J -0 9 u8 2 -J -0 1 u8 3 -J -0 u e e l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l S & P Cnx Nifty B S E Sensex The biggest surprise was the BSE PSU Index which added the maximum gain of 22.78 per cent. The interest rate sensitive indexes such as Bankex, Realty and Auto Index which were hit badly in June showed good sign of respite. The Bankex gained 16.71% in July 2008 despite the sucking of its liquidity by RBI under CRR and Repo rate hikes. The BSE Realty Index gained 20.47 per cent. Heavy weights like SBI, ICICI Bank etc showed some whooping foreign exchange losses in terms of MTM. The Pharmaceutical sector ended with a modest gain of 2.16% due to heavy MTM losses shown by its bellwether Ranbaxy. The worst number in the midst of rosy performance of July 2008 was shown by IT sector. BSE Teck Index ended with a meager gain of 1.69% while CNX IT Sector Index ended in net loss of 3.93 per cent. On the debt front, the money market rates eased amid ample liquidity in the system. The interest rate hikes have already pushed G Securities closing past 9.2 per cent. The AAA corporate bond yields have already breached 11 per cent. Amid such a choppy movement, the retail investors are left bleeding with no hedging on the back. Their portfolios which have already plummeted to 50 per cent from its high should turn to FMPs and Liquid Plus which are giving smart returns of 10 plus and 9 plus per cent respectively. Secotral Movements 8000 I 7000 n 6000 d 5000 e 4000 x 3000 2000 V 1000 a 0 l 1 u 8 0 -J -0 3 u 8 0 -J -0 5 u 8 0 -J -0 7 u 8 0 -J -0 9 u 8 0 -J -0 1 -J -0 u 8 3 u 8 1 -J -0 5 u 8 1 -J -0 7 u 8 1 -J -0 9 u 8 1 -J -0 1 u 8 2 -J -0 3 u 8 2 -J -0 5 u 8 2 -J -0 7 u 8 2 -J -0 9 u 8 2 -J -0 1 u 8 3 -J -0 u e l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l B S E Bankex B S E Healthcare Index B S E Psu Index B S E Realty Index B S E Teck Index