Our latest report is out on the spending, saving and borrowing intentions of Irish consumers. For the third month in a row, our Economic Recovery Index has reached a record level. More here: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

1. Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
December 2013
(including analysis by main bank; supermarket; mobile network)
© Amárach Research
Economic Recovery Index
1

2. #irlexit
Ireland‟s exit from the bailout has boosted
consumer confidence about our economic
performance and prospects: for the third month in
a row our Economic Recovery Index has
reached a record high level – up to 31.2.
The improvements in consumer intentions for
spending and borrowing noted in November have
been sustained into December.
As 2013 and the bailout come to an end, our
tracking research (and focus groups) confirm a
growing anticipation of recovery and a better
alignment between people‟s views on the
economy and their own personal financial plans.
Of course, sentiment is just that – an emotional
reaction to changing circumstances and
information: 2014 will show us whether the hoped
for recovery can finally become reality.
Economic Recovery Index
2

3. The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out nearly five years ago to assess
the psychological impact of the recession and
to chart our „emotional progress‟ towards
recovery alongside our „economic progress‟.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
December 2013.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 5th-10thDecember 2013 inclusive.
The full data series is on our website – if you
want us to conduct additional analyses (by
brands etc) then feel free to get in touch.
Economic Recovery Index
3

4. The Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on „stages of recovery‟ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Our Index continues to improve: reaching 31.2 in December 2013, the third record breaking
performance in row:
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Apr '09
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan '12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
0
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
Economic Recovery Index
4

5. A Matter of Measurement
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement „best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now‟ (listed below)
The percentage thinking „things are getting worse‟ is less than a third the level three years ago:
Nov ’13: 0%
Nov ’13: 5%
Nov ’13: 26%
Nov ’13: 32%
Dec ’13: 24%
Nov ’13: 36%
Economic Recovery Index
Dec ’13: 1%
Dec ’13: 8%
Dec ’13: 31%
Dec ’13: 36%
5

6. ERI Summary Tables I
Which one statement „best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now‟?
% choosing each statement:
%
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Nov-13
Dec-13
The economic
The economic
The economic
The economic The economic
situation is
situation is bad
situation is Economic
situation in situation is bad
getting better
but showing a
good and
Recovery
Ireland is
but has
and showing
few signs of
almost fully
Index
getting worse
stabilized
clear signs of
improvement
recovered
improvement
49
31
18
2
0
18.3
65
20
14
1
0
12.0
59
24
15
2
0
15.1
49
28
20
3
0
19.5
26
36
32
5
0
29.6
24
36
31
8
1
31.2
Economic Recovery Index
6

7. ERI Summary Tables II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Nov-13
Dec-13
Economic Recovery Index
43
23
22
26
36
37
I feel I am
financially I am optimistic
comfortable in spite of the
enough to
current
make it
economic
through the
situation
recession
45
34
33
32
42
40
51
41
39
39
49
49
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
56
45
43
43
44
43
7

8. ERI Summary Tables III
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Nov-13
Dec-13
I am more
I am saving a
My main
I would be
relaxed about
lot more than financial priority
happy to
spending
before
is to pay off my borrow money
money than I
because of the debts as quickly from a bank if I
was a few
recession
as possible
need to
months ago
17
26
57
29
11
23
58
21
14
27
56
22
15
22
54
22
22
24
54
26
22
26
55
26
Economic Recovery Index
8

9. Brighter Outlook I
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):
“Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in twelve months‟ time”
December 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44
Weighted Sample
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000
494
506
169
223
187
156
265
279
477
523
Strongly Agree
8%
8%
9%
10%
9%
8%
6%
8%
7%
11%
6%
Slightly Agree
29%
27%
31%
33%
30%
32%
23%
27%
30%
32%
26%
Neither/Nor
13%
14%
13%
14%
14%
16%
8%
14%
14%
12%
14%
Slightly Disagree
22%
22%
21%
21%
20%
20%
30%
20%
26%
23%
21%
Strongly Disagree
23%
26%
20%
16%
19%
18%
31%
29%
18%
18%
27%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
9

10. Brighter Outlook II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by bank/supermarket/mobile network):
“Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in twelve months‟ time”
December 2013 TOTAL AIB
BOI
Weighted Sample
PTSB Tesco Dunnes
Supervalu
Aldi
O2
Voda fone
Meteor
1000
333
296
155
342
183
80
222
213
354
181
Strongly Agree
8%
6%
10%
9%
9%
8%
11%
7%
7%
9%
7%
Slightly Agree
29%
31%
34%
22%
30%
33%
25%
28%
30%
26%
32%
Neither/Nor
13%
15%
12%
11%
16%
14%
9%
11%
14%
16%
11%
Slightly Disagree
22%
24%
20%
26%
24%
23%
18%
20%
24%
21%
19%
Strongly Disagree
23%
21%
20%
26%
16%
19%
33%
28%
20%
24%
26%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
10

11. Buy Irish I
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):
“I always buy Irish when I can”
December 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample
1000
494
506
169
223
187
156
265
279
477
523
Strongly Agree
23%
23%
23%
18%
21%
21%
23%
30%
23%
23%
24%
Slightly Agree
30%
28%
31%
29%
30%
29%
29%
32%
28%
33%
27%
Neither/Nor
24%
24%
24%
26%
24%
27%
27%
17%
28%
26%
22%
Slightly Disagree
11%
11%
11%
14%
11%
12%
13%
9%
12%
9%
13%
Strongly Disagree
8%
8%
7%
9%
9%
7%
5%
8%
7%
7%
9%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
11

12. Buy Irish II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by bank/supermarket/mobile network):
“I always buy Irish when I can”
Supervalu
Aldi
O2
Voda fone
Meteor
183
80
222
213
354
181
27%
27%
25%
23%
25%
23%
23%
26%
28%
39%
32%
33%
31%
29%
28%
26%
26%
24%
15%
22%
25%
21%
21%
24%
8%
9%
14%
12%
8%
8%
10%
10%
12%
12%
6%
8%
7%
6%
8%
8%
6%
7%
10%
7%
December 2013 TOTAL AIB
BOI
Weighted Sample
1000
333
296
155
342
Strongly Agree
23%
25%
23%
22%
Slightly Agree
28%
34%
34%
Neither/Nor
24%
22%
Slightly Disagree
12%
Strongly Disagree
7%
Economic Recovery Index
PTSB Tesco Dunnes
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
12

13. The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 toDecember 2013
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Enjoyment
Happiness
Stress
Worry
10%
Apr '09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
0%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
13

14. The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 toDecember 2013
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Anxiety
Sadness
Pain
Anger
5%
Apr '09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
0%
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
Economic Recovery Index
14

15. Emotions Summary Table
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes:
Enjoyment
Happiness
Dec-09
49
52
46
41
33
20
23
18
Dec-10
47
46
48
45
32
19
20
20
Dec-11
52
48
46
45
34
20
21
19
Dec-12
49
47
45
42
31
18
20
16
Nov-13
53
49
45
40
34
22
25
18
Dec-13
51
51
46
43
35
20
23
17
%
Economic Recovery Index
Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain
Anger
15

16. Changing Moods I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: December 2013
December 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample
1000
494
506
169
223
187
156
265
279
477
523
Enjoyment
51%
55%
48%
51%
48%
47%
52%
58%
52%
57%
46%
Happiness
51%
49%
53%
54%
51%
56%
45%
51%
52%
54%
48%
Stress
46%
38%
54%
55%
55%
57%
48%
25%
49%
48%
45%
Worry
43%
39%
47%
46%
44%
47%
47%
35%
42%
40%
46%
Anxiety
35%
31%
38%
45%
32%
38%
36%
27%
35%
36%
33%
Boredom
25%
27%
23%
48%
27%
22%
14%
17%
24%
21%
29%
Physical Pain
23%
20%
27%
20%
17%
25%
24%
30%
25%
23%
24%
Sadness
20%
18%
22%
27%
24%
21%
16%
16%
18%
22%
19%
Anger
17%
17%
17%
26%
20%
15%
14%
12%
19%
16%
18%
Fear
13%
11%
14%
21%
13%
13%
12%
7%
14%
13%
13%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
16

17. Changing Moods II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: December 2013 (by main bank/supermarket/mobile network)
Supervalu
Aldi
O2
Voda fone
Meteor
183
80
222
213
354
181
52%
54%
54%
43%
54%
51%
53%
46%
48%
53%
54%
56%
52%
50%
56%
44%
45%
47%
43%
40%
52%
43%
45%
53%
44%
39%
44%
41%
40%
38%
52%
39%
46%
37%
35%
36%
37%
31%
36%
31%
28%
41%
30%
38%
28%
Boredom
25%
25%
24%
26%
25%
28%
23%
27%
21%
23%
23%
Physical Pain
23%
22%
23%
25%
23%
19%
33%
25%
24%
19%
26%
Sadness
20%
19%
20%
23%
23%
18%
15%
23%
17%
21%
17%
Anger
17%
16%
18%
17%
17%
20%
17%
16%
16%
17%
15%
Fear
13%
13%
12%
16%
14%
12%
6%
14%
9%
13%
12%
December 2013 TOTAL
AIB
BOI
Weighted Sample
1000
333
296
155
342
Enjoyment
51%
49%
53%
52%
Happiness
51%
51%
58%
Stress
46%
49%
Worry
43%
Anxiety
Economic Recovery Index
PTSB Tesco Dunnes
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
17

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For more on the ERI see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm