Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2014

1
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing August 2014
© Amárach Research

2
Contagious Optimism Moods are contagious – for good and for bad – but right now it is for good as the rising level of economic optimism and personal confidence creates its own momentum. Our Economic Recovery Index is now at its highest level since we began measuring it over five years ago (though remember it was very low to begin with!) Indeed, for the first time, the majority of Irish people say the economy is clearly improving; only minority feel it’s bad or just stable. All-in-all, as we enter the last third of 2014, the economy might just enjoy an ‘Indian summer’ of its own…

3
The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out over five years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to August 2014. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 16th-22nd August 2014 inclusive. The full data series is on our website – details at the end of this report.

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Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). Our Index reached a new record level in August 2014:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, August 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Apr '09
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan '12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
the ERI is now approaching the 40 barrier…

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A Matter of Measurement
July ’14: 18%
Aug ’14: 16%
July ’14: 36%
Aug ’14: 33%
July ’14: 35%
Aug ’14: 38%
July ’14: 10%
Aug ’14: 13%
July ’14: 0%
Aug ’14: 0% Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) For the first time in over 5 years, the majority of Irish people say the economy is improving:

7
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement:
%
The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse
The economic situation is bad but has stabilized
The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement
The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement
The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered
Aug-09
53
26
20
1
0
17.0
Aug-10
36
36
24
4
0
24.0
Aug-11
52
29
18
1
0
17.3
Aug-12
42
31
25
2
0
21.7
Aug-13
38
33
26
3
0
23.7
Jul-14
18
36
35
10
0
34.7
Aug-14
16
33
38
13
0
37.2
The ERI in August 2014 was more than double that in August 2009

8
Uneven Recovery
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? (by sex, age, class, Dublin)
August 2014
TOTAL
Male
Female
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1 F50+
C2DE F50-
1000
494
506
169
223
187
156
265
279
477
523
The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse
15%
17%
13%
13%
14%
16%
17%
16%
16%
12%
19%
The economic situation is bad but has stabilized
32%
31%
33%
29%
34%
33%
34%
30%
31%
32%
32%
The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement
36%
35%
38%
35%
33%
38%
36%
39%
36%
38%
35%
The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement
13%
13%
12%
15%
12%
10%
11%
14%
13%
14%
11%
The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered from the recession
*
*
*
0
1%
1%
0
0
1%
1%
*
ERI Score
37.2
37.0
37.5
37.4
36.4
37.1
35.5
39.0
37.6
39.9
34.8

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Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me
Aug-09
43
48
60
61
Aug-10
39
46
50
54
Aug-11
24
34
48
46
Aug-12
27
39
47
46
Aug-13
32
38
44
43
Jul-14
37
41
48
44
Aug-14
41
47
53
47
a majority of people are optimistic for the first in months

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Feeling Comfortable?
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I feel financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
August 2014
TOTAL
Male
Female
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1 F50+
C2DE F50-
Weighted Sample
1000
494
506
169
223
187
156
265
279
477
523
Strongly Agree
14%
15%
14%
18%
17%
8%
14%
15%
14%
18%
11%
Slightly Agree
32%
31%
33%
32%
31%
34%
26%
36%
33%
37%
27%
Neither/Nor
16%
20%
13%
15%
18%
14%
18%
16%
17%
14%
18%
Slightly Disagree
20%
19%
20%
20%
19%
25%
19%
18%
20%
17%
22%
Strongly Disagree
15%
14%
16%
9%
14%
17%
22%
15%
14%
11%
19%

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Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
%
I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago
I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession
My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly as possible
I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to
Aug-09
16
Aug-10
19
26
62
31
Aug-11
14
25
57
23
Aug-12
17
28
54
25
Aug-13
18
25
55
25
Jul-14
23
24
54
23
Aug-14
28
27
56
27
spending propensity reached its highest level yet in August 2014

13
Purses & Wallets
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I am more relaxed spending money than I was a few months ago”
August 2014
TOTAL
Male
Female
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1 F50+
C2DE F50-
Weighted Sample
1000
494
506
169
223
187
156
265
279
477
523
Strongly Agree
7%
7%
7%
7%
10%
3%
8%
6%
7%
8%
6%
Slightly Agree
21%
22%
19%
24%
22%
22%
17%
19%
20%
26%
16%
Neither/Nor
20%
22%
17%
22%
19%
22%
17%
19%
20%
19%
20%
Slightly Disagree
26%
24%
28%
24%
26%
25%
24%
30%
27%
26%
27%
Strongly Disagree
25%
23%
27%
18%
21%
28%
32%
26%
23%
19%
30%

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Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III
%
I always buy the lowest price products or services
I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers
I have more choice than before when it comes to products and services
I always buy Irish when I can
Apr-13
57
71
52
52
May-13
58
69
54
54
Jun-13
55
70
55
51
Jul-13
56
70
52
53
Aug-13
57
70
53
53
Sep-13
59
72
53
54
Oct-13
58
69
52
51
Nov-13
56
69
55
51
Dec-13
54
68
54
53
Jan-14
59
74
56
54
Feb-14
56
70
57
52
Mar-14
57
68
56
48
Apr-14
56
69
54
50
May-14
60
72
55
51
Jun-14
55
70
58
52
Jul-14
58
72
58
48
Aug-14
56
71
60
51

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The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr '09
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Enjoyment
Happiness
Stress
Worry

17
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2014
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr '09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Anxiety
Sadness
Pain
Anger

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Changing Moods
August 2014
TOTAL
Male
Female
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1 F50+
C2DE F50-
1000
494
506
169
223
187
156
265
279
477
523
Enjoyment
60%
61%
58%
66%
55%
58%
61%
60%
58%
63%
56%
Happiness
57%
57%
57%
66%
56%
56%
53%
55%
58%
61%
53%
Stress
37%
34%
40%
41%
40%
46%
38%
25%
33%
35%
39%
Worry
34%
32%
37%
42%
39%
36%
36%
23%
35%
35%
33%
Boredom
27%
25%
29%
48%
32%
27%
19%
14%
28%
24%
30%
Anxiety
27%
26%
28%
33%
29%
30%
28%
19%
26%
28%
27%
Physical Pain
25%
25%
24%
19%
19%
27%
27%
29%
26%
23%
26%
Sadness
19%
17%
21%
30%
22%
18%
21%
10%
20%
18%
20%
Anger
17%
16%
17%
23%
23%
17%
16%
8%
16%
16%
18%
Fear
9%
7%
11%
10%
12%
12%
9%
3%
11%
8%
10%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: August 2014

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Dive In Moods are catching, so if the current emotional and intentional momentum continues we can expect to see a gradual increase in the share of consumers more prepared to open their purses & wallets. Only then will the recovery become much more manifest for the nation as a whole. We hope this edition of the Economic Recovery Index has given you some food for thought about the opportunities that lie ahead – we’d be happy to share other ideas with you on how to leverage the new momentum.
For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

we ask better questions so you get better answers
Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

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Trends Report
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Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2014

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