Problem 3. A school with 2n students is holding an end of year raffle. Each student is given an
envelope, and exactly one of these envelopes contains a shiny winning ticket, so the chance of
winning is 1/(2n) for each student. The students are divided into two classrooms. The students in
the first classroom open their envelopes one by one until only one student is left. So far, no one
has found the shiny winning ticket. If the last student is an optimist, they might reason "Since the
other students in my classroom did not find the winning ticket, my chances of winuing are
improved from 1/(2n) If the last student is a pessimist, then they might reason, "Since the other
students in my classroom did not find the winning ticket, it probably means the winning ticket is
in the other classroom, so my chances of winning are decreased from 1/(2n)n Is the optimist or
pessimist correct? Justify your answer by computing the probability..
Influencing policy (training slides from Fast Track Impact)
Problem 3. A school with 2n students is holding an end of year raffle.pdf
1. Problem 3. A school with 2n students is holding an end of year raffle. Each student is given an
envelope, and exactly one of these envelopes contains a shiny winning ticket, so the chance of
winning is 1/(2n) for each student. The students are divided into two classrooms. The students in
the first classroom open their envelopes one by one until only one student is left. So far, no one
has found the shiny winning ticket. If the last student is an optimist, they might reason "Since the
other students in my classroom did not find the winning ticket, my chances of winuing are
improved from 1/(2n) If the last student is a pessimist, then they might reason, "Since the other
students in my classroom did not find the winning ticket, it probably means the winning ticket is
in the other classroom, so my chances of winning are decreased from 1/(2n)n Is the optimist or
pessimist correct? Justify your answer by computing the probability.
