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RESEARCH REPORT                                                                                                   doi:10.1111/j.1360-0443.2011.03668.x



The association between exposure to point-of-sale
anti-smoking warnings and smokers’ interest in
quitting and quit attempts: findings from the
International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey                                                                                                     add_3668   425..433




Lin Li1, Ron Borland1, Hua-Hie Yong1, Sara C. Hitchman2, Melanie A. Wakefield3,
Karin A. Kasza4 & Geoffrey T. Fong2,5
VicHealth Centre for Tobacco Control, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia,1 Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo,
Ontario, Canada,2 Centre for Behavioural Research in Cancer, Cancer CouncilVictoria, Melbourne,Victoria,Australia,3 Division of Cancer Prevention and Population
Sciences, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY, USA4 and Ontario Institute for Cancer Research, Toronto, Ontario, Canada5




ABSTRACT

Aims This study aimed to examine the associations between reported exposure to anti-smoking warnings at the
point-of-sale (POS) and smokers’ interest in quitting and their subsequent quit attempts by comparing reactions in
Australia where warnings are prominent to smokers in other countries. Design A prospective multi-country cohort
design was employed. Setting Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States. Participants A total of
21 613 adult smokers who completed at least one of the seven waves (2002–08) of the International Tobacco Control
Four Country Survey were included in the analysis. Measurements Reported exposure to POS anti-smoking warnings
and smokers’ interest in quitting at the same wave and quit attempts over the following year. Findings Compared to
smokers in Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States, Australian smokers reported higher levels of awareness
of POS anti-smoking warnings, and this difference was consistent over the study period. Over waves in Australia
(but not in the other three countries) there was a significantly positive association between reported exposure to
POS anti-smoking warnings and interest in quitting [adjusted odds ratio = 1.139, 95% confidence interval (CI)
1.039–1.249, P < 0.01] and prospective quit attempts (adjusted odds ratio = 1.216, 95% CI 1.114–1.327, P < 0.001)
when controlling for demographics, smoking characteristics, overall salience of anti-smoking information and aware-
ness of anti-smoking material from channels other than POS. Conclusions Point-of-sale health warnings about
tobacco are more prominent in Australia than the United Kingdom, the United States or Canada and appear to act
as a prompt to quitting.

Keywords Australia, Canada, health warnings, longitudinal research, point-of-sale, smoking cessation, survey,
United Kingdom, United States.

Correspondence to: Lin Li, VicHealth Centre for Tobacco Control, the Cancer Council Victoria, 100 Drummond Street, Carlton, Victoria 3053, Australia.
E-mail: lin.li@cancervic.org.au
Submitted 10 April 2011; initial review completed 30 June 2011; final version accepted 22 September 2011




INTRODUCTION                                                                      tobacco industry in the United States has spent the vast
                                                                                  majority of their promotional budget in the retail envi-
Increasing numbers of countries have acted to restrict/                           ronment over the past decade [9]. This ranges from
ban tobacco advertising and promotion in traditional                              promotional material to payments for shelf space and
media such as television, radio, print and on billboards                          incentive schemes for retailers.
[1–5]. The tobacco industry has responded by expanding                               A number of jurisdictions have banned POS tobacco
their marketing in areas where it is still allowed [6,7].                         advertising, and some are now moving to prohibit the
Point-of-sale (POS) tobacco promotion has become an                               display of tobacco products—putting tobacco products
important marketing channel for the tobacco industry, as                          under the counter. Regardless of these restrictions, there
other marketing opportunities have been banned [8]. The                           are good reasons for having prominent POS anti-smoking

© 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction                                                              Addiction, 107, 425–433
426       Lin Li et al.




                                                                                               Figure 1 An example of Australian point-
                                                                                               of-sale anti-smoking warnings (notes: this
                                                                                               picture was taken in a supermarket in New
                                                                                               South Wales during the study period;
                                                                                               source: Simon Chapman of University of
                                                                                               Sydney and Anne Jones of Action on
                                                                                               Smoking and Health Australia)



warnings. This is the time when smokers purchase ciga-                        Warnings at the POS are less prominent in the other
rettes, so it should be a critical time to have them thinking             countries. Some provinces of Canada started to mandate
about the harms. However, there is little empirical evi-                  POS warnings from around 2004/05 [15,16], but most
dence to support such initiatives.                                        do not have size requirements. Pictorial warnings at the
    During the study period (2002–08), Australia had                      POS were only introduced in some provinces of Canada
notably stronger POS anti-smoking warnings than did                       (e.g. British Columbia) from early 2008. In the United
the other three countries in the study (Canada, the United                Kingdom, the Tobacco Advertising and Promotion (Point
Kingdom and the United States). Australia has had                         of Sale) Regulations 2004 allowed only one A5-sized
prominent POS warnings for some time, but with some                       (14.8 ¥ 21 cm) poster advertising tobacco in store with
variation across states. For example, the most populous                   30% of that area taken up with a health warning (e.g.
state of New South Wales requires a health warning                        ‘smoking seriously harms you and others around you’,
message (e.g. ‘smoking is addictive’) and a Quitline                      in force from December 2004) [17]. The United States
number (131 848) that features: (i) black writing on a                    has no systematic requirements for POS anti-smoking
white background; and (ii) between 50 and 100 cm wide                     information.
and have an area not less than 2000 cm2 [10] (See                             We expected an overall higher level of awareness of
Fig. 1). In the second most populous state of Victoria,                   POS warnings in Australia, and given the improvements
similar warnings are mandated near the POS or at the                      in regulations regarding POS warnings over the study
shop entrance. However, they are smaller in Victoria [A4                  period, increases in awareness in Australia, Canada and
in size (21 ¥ 29.7 cm)] [11]. In Queensland, under the                    the United Kingdom over-time. We were also interested in
Tobacco and Other Smoking Products Amendment Act                          determining if reported awareness of POS warnings were
2004, from December 2005 all the retail outlets are                       associated with higher quitting interest and prospectively,
required to display mandatory POS anti-smoking signs                      with higher levels of quitting activity, and whether this
that encourage quitting. Two other states (South Austra-                  varied by country (in this case a proxy for warning
lia and Western Australia), that began the 2002–08                        strength).
study period with weaker signs, strengthened them to be
similar to those of New South Wales and Victoria during
the study period.                                                         METHODS
    In Australia, POS anti-smoking warnings have been
                                                                          Data source and participants
integrated with other health communication strategies,
such as mandating health warnings on cigarette packets                    The data come from the first seven waves of the Interna-
and ongoing mass media campaigns that all have empha-                     tional Tobacco Control Four Country Survey (the ITC-4
sized the health harms of smoking and promoted the                        Survey), which has been running annually since 2002
Quitline number, sometimes using the same base mate-                      in Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the
rials [12–14].                                                            United States. A detailed description of the conceptual

© 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction                                           Addiction, 107, 425–433
Association between POS warnings and quitting interest and attempts                     427


framework and methods of the ITC-4 Survey has been                         Measures
reported by Fong et al. and Thompson et al. [18,19], and
                                                                           The ITC-4 Survey included questions about smoking
more detail is available at http://www.itcproject.org.
                                                                           behaviour, cigarette brand information, quit history,
Briefly, the ITC-4 Survey employs a prospective multi-
                                                                           exposure to anti-tobacco advertising, psychosocial mea-
country cohort design and involves annual telephone
                                                                           sures and demographics.
surveys of representative cohorts of adult smokers in
each of the four countries. The sampling is conducted via
random-digit dialling. The sample size per country is
                                                                           Outcome measures
approximately 2000. At each survey wave, the approxi-
mately 30% lost to follow-up are replenished from the                      The key outcomes were interest in quitting and quit
same sampling frame.                                                       attempts. Interest in quitting was assessed by: ‘Are
    Participants were aged 18+ years, had smoked at least                  you planning to quit smoking?’. Response options were
100 cigarettes life-time and had smoked at least once in                   ‘within the next month’, ‘within the next 6 months’,
the past 30 days at the time of recruitment. A total of                    ‘some time in the future, beyond 6 months’, ‘not planning
21 613 respondents who provided complete information                       to quit’ and ‘don’t know’. The first three categories were
for at least one of the seven waves (between 2002 and                      recoded to ‘having some interest in quitting’ and the
2008) were included in the analysis. The sample size for                   remaining as ‘not having an interest’. Quit attempts were
each country, the numbers of recruits in each wave/year,                   assessed at the next wave based on the answer to: ‘Since
and their characteristics are summarized in Table 1.                       we last talked to you [in last survey date], have you made



Table 1 Sample characteristics, by country.

                                                 Australia         Canada             United Kingdom           United States         Total

                                                 n = 4806          n = 5265           n = 5251                 n = 6291              n = 21 613

Gender (% female)                                   53.5              53.7               55.8                     55.1                  54.6
Identified minority group (%)                        12.8              11.3                4.9                     20.3                  12.7
Age at recruitment (years) (%)
  18–24                                             14.2              12.8                8.5                     11.7                  11.7
  25–39                                             35.6              30.3               31.3                     26.3                  30.6
  40–54                                             34.0              36.5               33.8                     36.6                  35.3
  55+                                               16.1              20.4               26.4                     25.5                  22.4
Education at recruitment (%)a
  Low                                               64.1              48.6               60.6                     45.8                  54.1
  Moderate                                          21.9              36.4               25.1                     38.3                  30.9
  High                                              13.9              14.8               13.5                     15.9                  14.6
Income at recruitment (%)a
  Low                                               26.9              28.3               31.1                     36.9                  31.2
  Moderate                                          32.7              34.4               31.5                     33.3                  33.0
  High                                              34.0              28.4               27.6                     22.7                  27.8
  No information                                     6.5               8.9                9.8                      7.1                   8.1
Cigarettes per day at recruitment (%)
  1–10                                              29.8              31.4               29.8                     31.1                  30.6
  11–20                                             40.1              42.7               53.4                     45.8                  45.6
  21–30                                             22.8              21.1               11.7                     13.1                  16.9
  31+                                                7.1               4.4                4.8                      9.4                   6.6
No. of new recruits in each wave (n)
  Wave 1 (in 2002)                               2305              2214               2401                     2138                  9058
  Wave 2 (2003)                                   258               517                255                      684                  1714
  Wave 3 (2004)                                   532               545                586                      889                  2552
  Wave 4 (2005)                                   362               519                503                      742                  2126
  Wave 5 (2006)                                   686               594                613                      745                  2638
  Wave 6 (2007)                                   539               556                523                      711                  2329
  Wave 7 (2008)                                   142               320                370                      382                  1196

Percentages are based on unweighted data. For some variables the number of cases were fewer than the total, due to some ‘don’t know’ and ‘missing’
cases. aFor the definition of each category please see the Measures section.


© 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction                                                  Addiction, 107, 425–433
428       Lin Li et al.


any attempts to stop smoking?’, or if a respondent stated                    Cigarettes per day (CPD) was asked at each wave and
that s/he had quit smoking since the previous survey                      recoded to: ‘already quit’, ‘1–10 CPD’, ‘11–20 CPD’ and
date.                                                                     ‘21+ CPD’. Respondents were also asked at each wave
                                                                          about their endorsement for regulation of tobacco pro-
                                                                          ducts via the following statement: ‘Tobacco products
Measures of exposure to POS health warnings
                                                                          should be more tightly regulated’. Response options
Respondents were asked at each wave about their notic-                    were ‘strongly agree’, ‘agree’, ‘neither agree nor dis-
ing of anti-smoking cues in a range of specific locations                  agree’, ‘disagree’ or ‘strongly disagree’.
or media, such as on television, radio, posters or bill-
                                                                          Data analysis
boards. In this context the following question regarding
POS anti-smoking warnings was asked: ‘In the last 6                       All analyses were conducted using STATA version 10.1.
months, have you noticed advertising or information that                  Both bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted
talks about the dangers of smoking, or encourages quit-                   to examine (i) the association between reported exposure
ting, on store windows or inside stores where tobacco is                  to POS anti-smoking warnings and smokers’ interest in
sold?’. Those who answered ‘yes’ to this question were                    quitting in the same wave (i.e. cross-sectional associa-
regarded as having been exposed to POS warnings.                          tion) and (ii) the association between POS exposure and
                                                                          subsequent quit attempts (i.e. longitudinal association, in
                                                                          which quit attempts were measured one wave after the
Covariates
                                                                          exposure to POS warnings). We first used c2 tests to look
A compound measure of exposure to anti-smoking warn-                      at the unadjusted association between POS exposure and
ings in places other than at the POS was created from                     quit interest/attempts for each wave, and then used mul-
the following eight items: exposure on television, radio,                 tivariate analyses to look at the fully adjusted association
movies, posters/billboards, newspapers/magazines, ciga-                   while considering data from all waves.
rette packs, leaflets and the internet (scores from 0–8). In                   Taking into consideration the correlated nature of the
addition, a measure of overall salience of anti-smoking                   data within people and across survey waves, we used the
information was used based on the following question:                     generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach to
‘In the last 6 months how often, if at all, have you noticed              compute parameter estimates. All GEE models included a
anti-smoking information?’ (1, never; 2, rarely; 3, some-                 specification for an unstructured within-subject correla-
times; 4, often; 5, very often).                                          tion structure, and parameter estimates were computed
    Demographics measured included sex (male, female),                    using robust variance. Our large sample size allowed us
age at recruitment (18–24, 25–39, 40–54, 55 years and                     to assume an unstructured correlation structure in GEE
older) and identified majority/minority group, which was                   which helped us to estimate all possible correlations
based on the primary means of identifying minorities in                   between within-subject responses and included them in
each country (i.e. racial/ethnic group in the United                      the estimation of the variances. Both main outcomes
Kingdom, Canada and the United States; and English                        were dichotomous, so the GEE models included a specifi-
language spoken at home in Australia). Due to the differ-                 cation for the binomial distribution of the dependent
ences in economic development and educational systems                     variables. For the outcome of quit attempts a ‘forward’
across countries, only relative levels of income and edu-                 specification was used in the analysis so longitudinal
cation were used. ‘Low’ level of education referred to                    association was examined. In GEE modelling we first
those who completed high school or less in Canada, the                    explored the country effect and its interactions for
United States and Australia, or secondary/vocational or                   both outcome variables. Because country effect and its
less in the United Kingdom; ‘moderate’ meant commu-                       interaction were significant, we constructed separate
nity college/trade/technical school/some university                       GEE models for each country. In each of the models we
(no degree) in Canada and the United States, college/                     included the following covariates: age, sex, ethnicity,
university (no degree) in the United Kingdom or                           baseline education, baseline income and also the follow-
technical/trade/some university (no degree) in Australia;                 ing time-varying covariates reported at each wave:
and ‘high’ referred to those who completed university or                  endorsement of regulation for tobacco products, overall
postgraduate studies in all countries. Household income                   salience of anti-smoking information, reported exposure
was also grouped into ‘low’ [less than $30 000 (country-                  to anti-smoking warnings in eight places other than POS
specific dollars) (£30 000 in the United Kingdom) per                      and cigarettes per day.
year], ‘moderate’ [$30 000–59 999 (£30 000–44 999
                                                                          Ethics approval
in the United Kingdom)], and ‘high’ categories [equal
to or greater than $60 000 (£45 000 in the United                         The study protocol was approved by the institutional
Kingdom)].                                                                review boards or research ethics boards of the University

© 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction                                          Addiction, 107, 425–433
Association between POS warnings and quitting interest and attempts       429


of Waterloo (Canada), Roswell Park Cancer Institute                             1.249, P < 0.01], in that those who were exposed to POS
(United States), University of Strathclyde (United                              warnings were 13.9% more likely at the same wave to
Kingdom), University of Stirling (United Kingdom), The                          report having quitting interest than those who were
Open University (United Kingdom) and The Cancer                                 not exposed (Table 3). Similarly, in Australia those who
Council Victoria (Australia).                                                   were exposed to POS warnings at one wave were 21.6%
                                                                                more likely to report having made quit attempts at the
                                                                                next wave than those who were not exposed (adjusted
RESULTS
                                                                                odds ratio = 1.216, 95% CI 1.114–1.327, P < 0.001,
Reported exposure to POS anti-smoking warnings by                               Table 4). No significant association between exposure
wave and country                                                                to POS warnings and outcomes was found in the other
                                                                                three countries.
Figure 2 shows that smokers in Australia reported higher
levels of noticing POS anti-smoking warnings compared
to their counterparts in the other three countries, and
                                                                                DISCUSSION
this was consistent over time. It is also notable that
the reported exposure to POS warnings in Australia                              POS anti-smoking warnings are designed to warn of the
increased over waves. There was also a smaller increase in                      dangers of smoking and encourage smokers to quit. This
the United Kingdom, but no clear evidence of an increase                        study shows clearly that the stronger, larger Australian
in either Canada or the United States.                                          POS warnings are noticed and are associated with
                                                                                increased interest in quitting and prospectively with quit
Interest in quitting and quit attempts by wave                                  attempts for smokers in Australia. However, the weaker or
                                                                                non-existent warnings in the other countries appear to
Table 2 provides the reported quitting interest and
                                                                                have no measurable effects. In Australia, the positive
attempts over waves in each of the four countries. It can
                                                                                association between exposure to POS warnings and out-
be seen that the proportions of reported interest in quit-
                                                                                comes remained even when exposure to anti-smoking
ting were generally higher than those of quit attempts in
                                                                                warnings in other domains and overall salience of anti-
all the countries. Those who were exposed to POS anti-
                                                                                smoking information were controlled for.
smoking warnings were more likely to report having quit-
                                                                                    The findings raise two important questions. First, does
ting interest in Australia, but this was not the case in the
                                                                                only finding a relation with quitting in Australia suggest
other three countries. Similar results were found for quit
                                                                                some threshold effect, and secondly, how likely is it that
attempts with a positive effect in Australia and no clear
                                                                                the relation we found for quitting are causal? The Austra-
pattern in the other three countries, although the pattern
                                                                                lian warnings are required to be placed in prime POS
of significant results by year in Australia was less clear
                                                                                positions—they are not incidental to signs promoting or
than for quitting interest (Table 2).
                                                                                announcing tobacco sales, and they clearly promote the
                                                                                Quitline number. They are typically at least A4 in size and
Associations between exposure to POS warnings and
                                                                                black-on-white text, although there is variation between
quitting interest and attempts: GEE modelling results
                                                                                states [12]. The small state of Tasmania now mandates
GEE modelling results show that over the waves in                               coloured graphic warnings using the same images as are
Australia (but not in the other three countries) there was                      on the cigarette pack warnings [20]), but the sample size
a significantly positive association between exposure                            is too small and the introduction too recent to be able to
to POS warnings and quitting interest [adjusted odds                            test for an independent effect of these warnings. The data
ratio = 1.139, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.039–                               are clearly consistent with some threshold of exposure


                                                              100.0%
                                               Percent(yes)




Figure 2 Noticing point-of-sale (POS)                          50.0%
anti-smoking warnings in shops by wave
                                                                                                                                  Australia
in International Tobacco Control Four                           0.0%
Country Survey (ITC-4) countries (notes:                                W1-     W2-    W3-     W4-     W5-    W6-     W7-         Canada
‘W1’ means ‘wave 1’ of the survey; this                                 2002    2003   2004    2005    2006   2007    2008        UK
applies to the other waves. Proportions                       Australia 39.3% 41.2% 42.4% 44.9% 52.4% 51.1% 57.8%                 US
reported here were based on weighted                          Canada 26.0% 21.1% 24.4% 24.9% 22.2% 21.2% 27.9%
data. A significant linear trend over years/
                                                              UK        14.1% 14.0% 16.6% 15.5% 17.6% 19.4% 21.2%
waves was found in Australia, but not in
the other three countries)                                    US        18.6% 20.6% 21.8% 22.7% 22.0% 19.0% 23.5%


© 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction                                               Addiction, 107, 425–433
430                                                                                                                                                               Lin Li et al.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Percentage of participants who reported having some intention to quit. Exposure and interest in quitting variables were from the same wave (i.e. cross-sectional association). bPercentage of participants who reported having made
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                that is related to warning message design and position.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                     at least one quit attempt between two consecutive surveys. Quit attempts occurred in the next wave/s after exposure (i.e. longitudinal association). ‘–’ stands for ‘not applicable’, because the wave 8 attempt data were not available
                                                                                                                                                                    Not exposed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                However, the failure to find any evidence of effects of the




                                                                                                                                                                                   64.9


                                                                                                                                                                                             72.9


                                                                                                                                                                                                    57.9


                                                                                                                                                                                                             68.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                newly introduced POS anti-smoking warnings in some
                                                                                                                                                  Wave 7 (2008)




                                                                                                                                                                                    –


                                                                                                                                                                                              –


                                                                                                                                                                                                     –


                                                                                                                                                                                                              –
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Canadian provinces weakens the argument for a thresh-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                old effect, and is more consistent with between-country
                                                                                                                                                                    Exposed


                                                                                                                                                                                   71.7**




                                                                                                                                                                                                    62.6*
                                                                                                                                                                                             74.8




                                                                                                                                                                                                             70.9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                differences. It is also consistent with their warnings not



                                                                                                                                                                                    –


                                                                                                                                                                                              –


                                                                                                                                                                                                     –


                                                                                                                                                                                                              –
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                evoking the broader anti-smoking efforts as do Australian
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                warnings. In other studies of the ITC-4 cohort, we have
                                                                                                                                                                    Not exposed



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                not found between-country effects for the impact of
                                                                                                                                                                                   68.6
                                                                                                                                                                                   49.1

                                                                                                                                                                                             74.5
                                                                                                                                                                                             46.9

                                                                                                                                                                                                    56.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                    40.8

                                                                                                                                                                                                             69.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                             46.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                health warnings on cigarette packs [14], even though in
                                                                                                                                                  Wave 6 (2007)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                the United States they are far smaller and less prominent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                than in the other countries. One possibility for this
                                                                                                                                                                    Exposed


                                                                                                                                                                                   77.6***
                                                                                                                                                                                   49.6

                                                                                                                                                                                             78.6
                                                                                                                                                                                             45.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                    61.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                    40.0

                                                                                                                                                                                                             71.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                             48.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                pattern of findings is that pack warnings are available
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                to smokers all the time, and smokers are prone to notice




                                                                                                                                                                                                                     at the time of writing. *Differences were significant at P < 0.05, Pearson’s c2 test (exposed versus not exposed; *is placed next to the higher figure); **P < 0.01; ***P < 0.001.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                them from time to time, even when they are tucked away
                                                                                                                                                                    Not exposed
Table 2 Reported interest in quitting and quit attempts over time, by country and exposure status to point-of-sale (POS) anti-smoking warnings.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                on the side of the pack. By contrast, little time is spent in
                                                                                                                                                                                   69.8
                                                                                                                                                                                   46.7

                                                                                                                                                                                             75.1
                                                                                                                                                                                             42.6

                                                                                                                                                                                                    60.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                    41.3

                                                                                                                                                                                                             71.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                             44.7

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                stores, so they need to be prominent enough to be noticed
                                                                                                                                                  Wave 5 (2006)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                with some regularity to have any real effect. This suggests
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                that POS warnings should be designed and placed in such
                                                                                                                                                                    Exposed


                                                                                                                                                                                   76.7**




                                                                                                                                                                                                    79.9**
                                                                                                                                                                                   46.1

                                                                                                                                                                                             74.4
                                                                                                                                                                                             41.9


                                                                                                                                                                                                    40.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                             71.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                             41.6




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                a way that they are large and prominent enough to be
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                noticed.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    One unique and relevant aspect of Australia’s
                                                                                                                                                                    Not exposed




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                tobacco control programme is its comprehensiveness.
                                                                                                                                                                                                             69.9*
                                                                                                                                                                                   70.9
                                                                                                                                                                                   47.5

                                                                                                                                                                                             76.2
                                                                                                                                                                                             42.8

                                                                                                                                                                                                    63.9
                                                                                                                                                                                                    41.1


                                                                                                                                                                                                             40.3




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                It has integrated communications from mass-media
                                                                                                                                                  Wave 4 (2005)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                campaigns, pack warnings and POS warnings. Recent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                research into the different measures designed to reduce
                                                                                                                                                                    Exposed


                                                                                                                                                                                   77.8**
                                                                                                                                                                                   50.6

                                                                                                                                                                                             75.8
                                                                                                                                                                                             43.4

                                                                                                                                                                                                    66.9
                                                                                                                                                                                                    39.0

                                                                                                                                                                                                             64.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                             43.4




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                smoking rates in Australia found that increases in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                tobacco taxes and greater exposure to televised mass
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                media campaigns contributed to the decreased smoking
                                                                                                                                                                    Not exposed




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                prevalence among Australian adults [21], and this is
                                                                                                                                                                                   72.2
                                                                                                                                                                                   41.9

                                                                                                                                                                                             77.2
                                                                                                                                                                                             42.9

                                                                                                                                                                                                    63.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                    44.9

                                                                                                                                                                                                             69.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                             41.1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                consistent with international evidence showing that
                                                                                                                                                  Wave 3 (2004)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                strong disease-related messages are potent motivators of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                making quit attempts [8]. The overall broad and multi-
                                                                                                                                                                    Exposed


                                                                                                                                                                                   77.5**
                                                                                                                                                                                   50.4**

                                                                                                                                                                                             74.9
                                                                                                                                                                                             43.0

                                                                                                                                                                                                    58.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                    44.1

                                                                                                                                                                                                             69.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                             47.2




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                location strategy of using the same prominent warnings
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                on the cigarette packs and at POS, as well as via mass
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                media would probably provide additional opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                    Not exposed




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                for smokers to remember the warnings and this, in turn,
                                                                                                                                                                                                    61.3*
                                                                                                                                                                                   72.3
                                                                                                                                                                                   41.9

                                                                                                                                                                                             80.7
                                                                                                                                                                                             43.9


                                                                                                                                                                                                    38.3

                                                                                                                                                                                                             72.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                             38.9




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                might lead to an increase in the likelihood that the warn-
                                                                                                                                                  Wave 2 (2003)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ings would lead to action. Our data indicate that overall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                salience of anti-smoking information was associated
                                                                                                                                                                    Exposed



                                                                                                                                                                                   47.4*
                                                                                                                                                                                   75.6


                                                                                                                                                                                             80.3
                                                                                                                                                                                             46.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                    54.3
                                                                                                                                                                                                    34.3

                                                                                                                                                                                                             68.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                             44.7




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                with interest in quitting in all countries but Canada (for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                reasons that are unclear) and quit attempts in Australia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                and the United Kingdom. A recent study by Brennan
                                                                                                                                                                    Not exposed




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                et al. [13] found that graphic health warnings on ciga-
                                                                                                                                                                                                    65.5*
                                                                                                                                                                                   75.3
                                                                                                                                                                                   34.1

                                                                                                                                                                                             81.1
                                                                                                                                                                                             43.2


                                                                                                                                                                                                    31.8

                                                                                                                                                                                                             75.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                             36.3




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                rette packets and on television operated in a complemen-
                                                                                                                                                  Wave 1 (2002)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                tary manner to positively influence Australian smokers’
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                awareness of the health risks of smoking and motivation
                                                                                                                                                                    Exposed


                                                                                                                                                                                   76.9
                                                                                                                                                                                   34.6

                                                                                                                                                                                             82.3
                                                                                                                                                                                             45.8

                                                                                                                                                                                                    59.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                    30.2

                                                                                                                                                                                                             71.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                             37.3




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                to quit [13], suggesting that such a multi-location strat-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                egy may enhance effects. It is worth reflecting on the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                fact that in most jurisdictions where POS is critical for
                                                                                                                                                                                  United Kingdom
                                                                                                                                                                                    %Attemptedb


                                                                                                                                                                                    %Attempted


                                                                                                                                                                                    %Attempted


                                                                                                                                                                                    %Attempted
                                                                                                                                                                                    % Intendeda


                                                                                                                                                                                    % Intended


                                                                                                                                                                                    % Intended


                                                                                                                                                                                    % Intended
                                                                                                                                                                                  United States




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                tobacco marketing, the POS pack displays have tradition-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ally served as a prompt for smokers to purchase tobacco
                                                                                                                                                                                  Australia


                                                                                                                                                                                  Canada




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                rather than avoid it, and to pose a risk for relapse for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                those who have quit [22,23].
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     a




© 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Addiction, 107, 425–433
Association between POS warnings and quitting interest and attempts                         431


Table 3 Association between exposure to point-of-sale (POS) anti-smoking warnings and interest in quitting—generalized estimating
equation (GEE) modelling results.

                                                                           Adjusted odds ratioa                 95% CI                          P-value

Australia
  POS warnings                                                             1.139                                1.039–1.249                     <0.01
  Seen in other health warning domains (number)                            1.065                                1.034–1.097                     <0.001
  Overall salience of anti-smoking information                             1.090                                1.052–1.129                     <0.001
Canada
  POS warnings                                                             0.919                                0.826–1.022                      0.122
  Seen in other health warning domains (number)                            1.096                                1.064–1.129                     <0.001
  Overall salience of anti-smoking information                             1.035                                0.997–1.075                      0.071
United Kingdom
  POS warnings                                                             1.014                                0.908–1.132                      0.806
  Seen in other health warning domains (number)                            1.072                                1.044–1.101                     <0.001
  Overall salience of anti-smoking information                             1.063                                1.031–1.097                     <0.001
United States
  POS warnings                                                             0.911                                0.825–1.007                      0.069
  Seen in other health warning domains (number)                            1.065                                1.037–1.094                     <0.001
  Overall salience of anti-smoking information                             1.083                                1.045–1.121                     <0.001

Exposure and intention variables were from same wave (i.e. cross-sectional association). Exposure to POS health warnings was coded as ‘1’ for ‘yes
exposed’, and ‘0’ for ‘not exposed’ (the referent). Main effect (not shown in table) for country and its interaction (exposure*country) was significant at
the P < 0.001 level, therefore separate models were constructed for each country. aAdjusted for gender, age, ethnicity, baseline education, baseline
income, endorsement for regulation of tobacco products at each wave, a compound measure of exposure to anti-smoking warnings in places other than
POS, overall salience of anti-smoking information, cigarettes per day at each wave, wave and cohort. CI: confidence interval.




Table 4 Longitudinal association between exposure to point-of-sale (POS) anti-smoking warnings and subsequent quit attempts—
generalized estimating equation (GEE) modelling results.

                                                                           Adjusted odds ratioa                 95% CI                          P-value

Australia
  POS warnings                                                             1.216                                1.114–1.327                     <0.001
  Seen in other health warning domains (number)                            0.995                                0.968–1.023                      0.718
  Overall salience of anti-smoking information                             1.042                                1.006–1.079                      0.023
Canada
  POS warnings                                                             0.909                                0.820–1.007                      0.067
  Seen in other health warning domains (number)                            1.011                                0.983–1.039                      0.450
  Overall salience of anti-smoking information                             0.997                                0.961–1.034                      0.854
United Kingdom
  POS warnings                                                             0.949                                0.835–1.079                      0.425
  Seen in other health warning domains (number)                            1.005                                0.976–1.035                      0.738
  Overall salience of anti-smoking information                             1.062                                1.025–1.100                      0.001
United States
  POS warnings                                                             0.987                                0.900–1.082                      0.774
  Seen in other health warning domains (number)                            1.022                                0.997–1.048                      0.081
  Overall salience of anti-smoking information                             0.959                                0.928–0.992                      0.016

Exposure to POS health warnings was coded as ‘1’ for ‘yes exposed’, and ‘0’ for ‘not exposed’ (the referent). ‘Having made quit attempts’ were measured
one wave AFTER the exposure to POS warning, and a ‘forward’ specification was used in the analysis. Main effect (not shown in table) for country and
its interaction (exposure*country) was significant at the P < 0.001 level, therefore separate models were constructed for each country. aAdjusted for
gender, age, ethnicity, baseline education, baseline income, endorsement for regulations of tobacco products at each wave, a compound measure of
exposure to anti-smoking warnings in places other than POS, overall salience of anti-smoking information, cigarettes per day at each wave, wave and
cohort. When interest in quitting was also adjusted for the effect remained essentially the same for each country, including the significant effect in
Australia. CI: confidence interval.




© 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction                                                        Addiction, 107, 425–433
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Ll etal itc 4 pos warnings and quitting-addiction_published

  • 1. RESEARCH REPORT doi:10.1111/j.1360-0443.2011.03668.x The association between exposure to point-of-sale anti-smoking warnings and smokers’ interest in quitting and quit attempts: findings from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey add_3668 425..433 Lin Li1, Ron Borland1, Hua-Hie Yong1, Sara C. Hitchman2, Melanie A. Wakefield3, Karin A. Kasza4 & Geoffrey T. Fong2,5 VicHealth Centre for Tobacco Control, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia,1 Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada,2 Centre for Behavioural Research in Cancer, Cancer CouncilVictoria, Melbourne,Victoria,Australia,3 Division of Cancer Prevention and Population Sciences, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY, USA4 and Ontario Institute for Cancer Research, Toronto, Ontario, Canada5 ABSTRACT Aims This study aimed to examine the associations between reported exposure to anti-smoking warnings at the point-of-sale (POS) and smokers’ interest in quitting and their subsequent quit attempts by comparing reactions in Australia where warnings are prominent to smokers in other countries. Design A prospective multi-country cohort design was employed. Setting Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States. Participants A total of 21 613 adult smokers who completed at least one of the seven waves (2002–08) of the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey were included in the analysis. Measurements Reported exposure to POS anti-smoking warnings and smokers’ interest in quitting at the same wave and quit attempts over the following year. Findings Compared to smokers in Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States, Australian smokers reported higher levels of awareness of POS anti-smoking warnings, and this difference was consistent over the study period. Over waves in Australia (but not in the other three countries) there was a significantly positive association between reported exposure to POS anti-smoking warnings and interest in quitting [adjusted odds ratio = 1.139, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.039–1.249, P < 0.01] and prospective quit attempts (adjusted odds ratio = 1.216, 95% CI 1.114–1.327, P < 0.001) when controlling for demographics, smoking characteristics, overall salience of anti-smoking information and aware- ness of anti-smoking material from channels other than POS. Conclusions Point-of-sale health warnings about tobacco are more prominent in Australia than the United Kingdom, the United States or Canada and appear to act as a prompt to quitting. Keywords Australia, Canada, health warnings, longitudinal research, point-of-sale, smoking cessation, survey, United Kingdom, United States. Correspondence to: Lin Li, VicHealth Centre for Tobacco Control, the Cancer Council Victoria, 100 Drummond Street, Carlton, Victoria 3053, Australia. E-mail: lin.li@cancervic.org.au Submitted 10 April 2011; initial review completed 30 June 2011; final version accepted 22 September 2011 INTRODUCTION tobacco industry in the United States has spent the vast majority of their promotional budget in the retail envi- Increasing numbers of countries have acted to restrict/ ronment over the past decade [9]. This ranges from ban tobacco advertising and promotion in traditional promotional material to payments for shelf space and media such as television, radio, print and on billboards incentive schemes for retailers. [1–5]. The tobacco industry has responded by expanding A number of jurisdictions have banned POS tobacco their marketing in areas where it is still allowed [6,7]. advertising, and some are now moving to prohibit the Point-of-sale (POS) tobacco promotion has become an display of tobacco products—putting tobacco products important marketing channel for the tobacco industry, as under the counter. Regardless of these restrictions, there other marketing opportunities have been banned [8]. The are good reasons for having prominent POS anti-smoking © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction Addiction, 107, 425–433
  • 2. 426 Lin Li et al. Figure 1 An example of Australian point- of-sale anti-smoking warnings (notes: this picture was taken in a supermarket in New South Wales during the study period; source: Simon Chapman of University of Sydney and Anne Jones of Action on Smoking and Health Australia) warnings. This is the time when smokers purchase ciga- Warnings at the POS are less prominent in the other rettes, so it should be a critical time to have them thinking countries. Some provinces of Canada started to mandate about the harms. However, there is little empirical evi- POS warnings from around 2004/05 [15,16], but most dence to support such initiatives. do not have size requirements. Pictorial warnings at the During the study period (2002–08), Australia had POS were only introduced in some provinces of Canada notably stronger POS anti-smoking warnings than did (e.g. British Columbia) from early 2008. In the United the other three countries in the study (Canada, the United Kingdom, the Tobacco Advertising and Promotion (Point Kingdom and the United States). Australia has had of Sale) Regulations 2004 allowed only one A5-sized prominent POS warnings for some time, but with some (14.8 ¥ 21 cm) poster advertising tobacco in store with variation across states. For example, the most populous 30% of that area taken up with a health warning (e.g. state of New South Wales requires a health warning ‘smoking seriously harms you and others around you’, message (e.g. ‘smoking is addictive’) and a Quitline in force from December 2004) [17]. The United States number (131 848) that features: (i) black writing on a has no systematic requirements for POS anti-smoking white background; and (ii) between 50 and 100 cm wide information. and have an area not less than 2000 cm2 [10] (See We expected an overall higher level of awareness of Fig. 1). In the second most populous state of Victoria, POS warnings in Australia, and given the improvements similar warnings are mandated near the POS or at the in regulations regarding POS warnings over the study shop entrance. However, they are smaller in Victoria [A4 period, increases in awareness in Australia, Canada and in size (21 ¥ 29.7 cm)] [11]. In Queensland, under the the United Kingdom over-time. We were also interested in Tobacco and Other Smoking Products Amendment Act determining if reported awareness of POS warnings were 2004, from December 2005 all the retail outlets are associated with higher quitting interest and prospectively, required to display mandatory POS anti-smoking signs with higher levels of quitting activity, and whether this that encourage quitting. Two other states (South Austra- varied by country (in this case a proxy for warning lia and Western Australia), that began the 2002–08 strength). study period with weaker signs, strengthened them to be similar to those of New South Wales and Victoria during the study period. METHODS In Australia, POS anti-smoking warnings have been Data source and participants integrated with other health communication strategies, such as mandating health warnings on cigarette packets The data come from the first seven waves of the Interna- and ongoing mass media campaigns that all have empha- tional Tobacco Control Four Country Survey (the ITC-4 sized the health harms of smoking and promoted the Survey), which has been running annually since 2002 Quitline number, sometimes using the same base mate- in Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the rials [12–14]. United States. A detailed description of the conceptual © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction Addiction, 107, 425–433
  • 3. Association between POS warnings and quitting interest and attempts 427 framework and methods of the ITC-4 Survey has been Measures reported by Fong et al. and Thompson et al. [18,19], and The ITC-4 Survey included questions about smoking more detail is available at http://www.itcproject.org. behaviour, cigarette brand information, quit history, Briefly, the ITC-4 Survey employs a prospective multi- exposure to anti-tobacco advertising, psychosocial mea- country cohort design and involves annual telephone sures and demographics. surveys of representative cohorts of adult smokers in each of the four countries. The sampling is conducted via random-digit dialling. The sample size per country is Outcome measures approximately 2000. At each survey wave, the approxi- mately 30% lost to follow-up are replenished from the The key outcomes were interest in quitting and quit same sampling frame. attempts. Interest in quitting was assessed by: ‘Are Participants were aged 18+ years, had smoked at least you planning to quit smoking?’. Response options were 100 cigarettes life-time and had smoked at least once in ‘within the next month’, ‘within the next 6 months’, the past 30 days at the time of recruitment. A total of ‘some time in the future, beyond 6 months’, ‘not planning 21 613 respondents who provided complete information to quit’ and ‘don’t know’. The first three categories were for at least one of the seven waves (between 2002 and recoded to ‘having some interest in quitting’ and the 2008) were included in the analysis. The sample size for remaining as ‘not having an interest’. Quit attempts were each country, the numbers of recruits in each wave/year, assessed at the next wave based on the answer to: ‘Since and their characteristics are summarized in Table 1. we last talked to you [in last survey date], have you made Table 1 Sample characteristics, by country. Australia Canada United Kingdom United States Total n = 4806 n = 5265 n = 5251 n = 6291 n = 21 613 Gender (% female) 53.5 53.7 55.8 55.1 54.6 Identified minority group (%) 12.8 11.3 4.9 20.3 12.7 Age at recruitment (years) (%) 18–24 14.2 12.8 8.5 11.7 11.7 25–39 35.6 30.3 31.3 26.3 30.6 40–54 34.0 36.5 33.8 36.6 35.3 55+ 16.1 20.4 26.4 25.5 22.4 Education at recruitment (%)a Low 64.1 48.6 60.6 45.8 54.1 Moderate 21.9 36.4 25.1 38.3 30.9 High 13.9 14.8 13.5 15.9 14.6 Income at recruitment (%)a Low 26.9 28.3 31.1 36.9 31.2 Moderate 32.7 34.4 31.5 33.3 33.0 High 34.0 28.4 27.6 22.7 27.8 No information 6.5 8.9 9.8 7.1 8.1 Cigarettes per day at recruitment (%) 1–10 29.8 31.4 29.8 31.1 30.6 11–20 40.1 42.7 53.4 45.8 45.6 21–30 22.8 21.1 11.7 13.1 16.9 31+ 7.1 4.4 4.8 9.4 6.6 No. of new recruits in each wave (n) Wave 1 (in 2002) 2305 2214 2401 2138 9058 Wave 2 (2003) 258 517 255 684 1714 Wave 3 (2004) 532 545 586 889 2552 Wave 4 (2005) 362 519 503 742 2126 Wave 5 (2006) 686 594 613 745 2638 Wave 6 (2007) 539 556 523 711 2329 Wave 7 (2008) 142 320 370 382 1196 Percentages are based on unweighted data. For some variables the number of cases were fewer than the total, due to some ‘don’t know’ and ‘missing’ cases. aFor the definition of each category please see the Measures section. © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction Addiction, 107, 425–433
  • 4. 428 Lin Li et al. any attempts to stop smoking?’, or if a respondent stated Cigarettes per day (CPD) was asked at each wave and that s/he had quit smoking since the previous survey recoded to: ‘already quit’, ‘1–10 CPD’, ‘11–20 CPD’ and date. ‘21+ CPD’. Respondents were also asked at each wave about their endorsement for regulation of tobacco pro- ducts via the following statement: ‘Tobacco products Measures of exposure to POS health warnings should be more tightly regulated’. Response options Respondents were asked at each wave about their notic- were ‘strongly agree’, ‘agree’, ‘neither agree nor dis- ing of anti-smoking cues in a range of specific locations agree’, ‘disagree’ or ‘strongly disagree’. or media, such as on television, radio, posters or bill- Data analysis boards. In this context the following question regarding POS anti-smoking warnings was asked: ‘In the last 6 All analyses were conducted using STATA version 10.1. months, have you noticed advertising or information that Both bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted talks about the dangers of smoking, or encourages quit- to examine (i) the association between reported exposure ting, on store windows or inside stores where tobacco is to POS anti-smoking warnings and smokers’ interest in sold?’. Those who answered ‘yes’ to this question were quitting in the same wave (i.e. cross-sectional associa- regarded as having been exposed to POS warnings. tion) and (ii) the association between POS exposure and subsequent quit attempts (i.e. longitudinal association, in which quit attempts were measured one wave after the Covariates exposure to POS warnings). We first used c2 tests to look A compound measure of exposure to anti-smoking warn- at the unadjusted association between POS exposure and ings in places other than at the POS was created from quit interest/attempts for each wave, and then used mul- the following eight items: exposure on television, radio, tivariate analyses to look at the fully adjusted association movies, posters/billboards, newspapers/magazines, ciga- while considering data from all waves. rette packs, leaflets and the internet (scores from 0–8). In Taking into consideration the correlated nature of the addition, a measure of overall salience of anti-smoking data within people and across survey waves, we used the information was used based on the following question: generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach to ‘In the last 6 months how often, if at all, have you noticed compute parameter estimates. All GEE models included a anti-smoking information?’ (1, never; 2, rarely; 3, some- specification for an unstructured within-subject correla- times; 4, often; 5, very often). tion structure, and parameter estimates were computed Demographics measured included sex (male, female), using robust variance. Our large sample size allowed us age at recruitment (18–24, 25–39, 40–54, 55 years and to assume an unstructured correlation structure in GEE older) and identified majority/minority group, which was which helped us to estimate all possible correlations based on the primary means of identifying minorities in between within-subject responses and included them in each country (i.e. racial/ethnic group in the United the estimation of the variances. Both main outcomes Kingdom, Canada and the United States; and English were dichotomous, so the GEE models included a specifi- language spoken at home in Australia). Due to the differ- cation for the binomial distribution of the dependent ences in economic development and educational systems variables. For the outcome of quit attempts a ‘forward’ across countries, only relative levels of income and edu- specification was used in the analysis so longitudinal cation were used. ‘Low’ level of education referred to association was examined. In GEE modelling we first those who completed high school or less in Canada, the explored the country effect and its interactions for United States and Australia, or secondary/vocational or both outcome variables. Because country effect and its less in the United Kingdom; ‘moderate’ meant commu- interaction were significant, we constructed separate nity college/trade/technical school/some university GEE models for each country. In each of the models we (no degree) in Canada and the United States, college/ included the following covariates: age, sex, ethnicity, university (no degree) in the United Kingdom or baseline education, baseline income and also the follow- technical/trade/some university (no degree) in Australia; ing time-varying covariates reported at each wave: and ‘high’ referred to those who completed university or endorsement of regulation for tobacco products, overall postgraduate studies in all countries. Household income salience of anti-smoking information, reported exposure was also grouped into ‘low’ [less than $30 000 (country- to anti-smoking warnings in eight places other than POS specific dollars) (£30 000 in the United Kingdom) per and cigarettes per day. year], ‘moderate’ [$30 000–59 999 (£30 000–44 999 Ethics approval in the United Kingdom)], and ‘high’ categories [equal to or greater than $60 000 (£45 000 in the United The study protocol was approved by the institutional Kingdom)]. review boards or research ethics boards of the University © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction Addiction, 107, 425–433
  • 5. Association between POS warnings and quitting interest and attempts 429 of Waterloo (Canada), Roswell Park Cancer Institute 1.249, P < 0.01], in that those who were exposed to POS (United States), University of Strathclyde (United warnings were 13.9% more likely at the same wave to Kingdom), University of Stirling (United Kingdom), The report having quitting interest than those who were Open University (United Kingdom) and The Cancer not exposed (Table 3). Similarly, in Australia those who Council Victoria (Australia). were exposed to POS warnings at one wave were 21.6% more likely to report having made quit attempts at the next wave than those who were not exposed (adjusted RESULTS odds ratio = 1.216, 95% CI 1.114–1.327, P < 0.001, Reported exposure to POS anti-smoking warnings by Table 4). No significant association between exposure wave and country to POS warnings and outcomes was found in the other three countries. Figure 2 shows that smokers in Australia reported higher levels of noticing POS anti-smoking warnings compared to their counterparts in the other three countries, and DISCUSSION this was consistent over time. It is also notable that the reported exposure to POS warnings in Australia POS anti-smoking warnings are designed to warn of the increased over waves. There was also a smaller increase in dangers of smoking and encourage smokers to quit. This the United Kingdom, but no clear evidence of an increase study shows clearly that the stronger, larger Australian in either Canada or the United States. POS warnings are noticed and are associated with increased interest in quitting and prospectively with quit Interest in quitting and quit attempts by wave attempts for smokers in Australia. However, the weaker or non-existent warnings in the other countries appear to Table 2 provides the reported quitting interest and have no measurable effects. In Australia, the positive attempts over waves in each of the four countries. It can association between exposure to POS warnings and out- be seen that the proportions of reported interest in quit- comes remained even when exposure to anti-smoking ting were generally higher than those of quit attempts in warnings in other domains and overall salience of anti- all the countries. Those who were exposed to POS anti- smoking information were controlled for. smoking warnings were more likely to report having quit- The findings raise two important questions. First, does ting interest in Australia, but this was not the case in the only finding a relation with quitting in Australia suggest other three countries. Similar results were found for quit some threshold effect, and secondly, how likely is it that attempts with a positive effect in Australia and no clear the relation we found for quitting are causal? The Austra- pattern in the other three countries, although the pattern lian warnings are required to be placed in prime POS of significant results by year in Australia was less clear positions—they are not incidental to signs promoting or than for quitting interest (Table 2). announcing tobacco sales, and they clearly promote the Quitline number. They are typically at least A4 in size and Associations between exposure to POS warnings and black-on-white text, although there is variation between quitting interest and attempts: GEE modelling results states [12]. The small state of Tasmania now mandates GEE modelling results show that over the waves in coloured graphic warnings using the same images as are Australia (but not in the other three countries) there was on the cigarette pack warnings [20]), but the sample size a significantly positive association between exposure is too small and the introduction too recent to be able to to POS warnings and quitting interest [adjusted odds test for an independent effect of these warnings. The data ratio = 1.139, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.039– are clearly consistent with some threshold of exposure 100.0% Percent(yes) Figure 2 Noticing point-of-sale (POS) 50.0% anti-smoking warnings in shops by wave Australia in International Tobacco Control Four 0.0% Country Survey (ITC-4) countries (notes: W1- W2- W3- W4- W5- W6- W7- Canada ‘W1’ means ‘wave 1’ of the survey; this 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 UK applies to the other waves. Proportions Australia 39.3% 41.2% 42.4% 44.9% 52.4% 51.1% 57.8% US reported here were based on weighted Canada 26.0% 21.1% 24.4% 24.9% 22.2% 21.2% 27.9% data. A significant linear trend over years/ UK 14.1% 14.0% 16.6% 15.5% 17.6% 19.4% 21.2% waves was found in Australia, but not in the other three countries) US 18.6% 20.6% 21.8% 22.7% 22.0% 19.0% 23.5% © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction Addiction, 107, 425–433
  • 6. 430 Lin Li et al. Percentage of participants who reported having some intention to quit. Exposure and interest in quitting variables were from the same wave (i.e. cross-sectional association). bPercentage of participants who reported having made that is related to warning message design and position. at least one quit attempt between two consecutive surveys. Quit attempts occurred in the next wave/s after exposure (i.e. longitudinal association). ‘–’ stands for ‘not applicable’, because the wave 8 attempt data were not available Not exposed However, the failure to find any evidence of effects of the 64.9 72.9 57.9 68.5 newly introduced POS anti-smoking warnings in some Wave 7 (2008) – – – – Canadian provinces weakens the argument for a thresh- old effect, and is more consistent with between-country Exposed 71.7** 62.6* 74.8 70.9 differences. It is also consistent with their warnings not – – – – evoking the broader anti-smoking efforts as do Australian warnings. In other studies of the ITC-4 cohort, we have Not exposed not found between-country effects for the impact of 68.6 49.1 74.5 46.9 56.7 40.8 69.6 46.1 health warnings on cigarette packs [14], even though in Wave 6 (2007) the United States they are far smaller and less prominent than in the other countries. One possibility for this Exposed 77.6*** 49.6 78.6 45.5 61.5 40.0 71.8 48.1 pattern of findings is that pack warnings are available to smokers all the time, and smokers are prone to notice at the time of writing. *Differences were significant at P < 0.05, Pearson’s c2 test (exposed versus not exposed; *is placed next to the higher figure); **P < 0.01; ***P < 0.001. them from time to time, even when they are tucked away Not exposed Table 2 Reported interest in quitting and quit attempts over time, by country and exposure status to point-of-sale (POS) anti-smoking warnings. on the side of the pack. By contrast, little time is spent in 69.8 46.7 75.1 42.6 60.1 41.3 71.2 44.7 stores, so they need to be prominent enough to be noticed Wave 5 (2006) with some regularity to have any real effect. This suggests that POS warnings should be designed and placed in such Exposed 76.7** 79.9** 46.1 74.4 41.9 40.5 71.2 41.6 a way that they are large and prominent enough to be noticed. One unique and relevant aspect of Australia’s Not exposed tobacco control programme is its comprehensiveness. 69.9* 70.9 47.5 76.2 42.8 63.9 41.1 40.3 It has integrated communications from mass-media Wave 4 (2005) campaigns, pack warnings and POS warnings. Recent research into the different measures designed to reduce Exposed 77.8** 50.6 75.8 43.4 66.9 39.0 64.2 43.4 smoking rates in Australia found that increases in tobacco taxes and greater exposure to televised mass media campaigns contributed to the decreased smoking Not exposed prevalence among Australian adults [21], and this is 72.2 41.9 77.2 42.9 63.0 44.9 69.2 41.1 consistent with international evidence showing that Wave 3 (2004) strong disease-related messages are potent motivators of making quit attempts [8]. The overall broad and multi- Exposed 77.5** 50.4** 74.9 43.0 58.0 44.1 69.0 47.2 location strategy of using the same prominent warnings on the cigarette packs and at POS, as well as via mass media would probably provide additional opportunities Not exposed for smokers to remember the warnings and this, in turn, 61.3* 72.3 41.9 80.7 43.9 38.3 72.0 38.9 might lead to an increase in the likelihood that the warn- Wave 2 (2003) ings would lead to action. Our data indicate that overall salience of anti-smoking information was associated Exposed 47.4* 75.6 80.3 46.5 54.3 34.3 68.4 44.7 with interest in quitting in all countries but Canada (for reasons that are unclear) and quit attempts in Australia and the United Kingdom. A recent study by Brennan Not exposed et al. [13] found that graphic health warnings on ciga- 65.5* 75.3 34.1 81.1 43.2 31.8 75.6 36.3 rette packets and on television operated in a complemen- Wave 1 (2002) tary manner to positively influence Australian smokers’ awareness of the health risks of smoking and motivation Exposed 76.9 34.6 82.3 45.8 59.0 30.2 71.4 37.3 to quit [13], suggesting that such a multi-location strat- egy may enhance effects. It is worth reflecting on the fact that in most jurisdictions where POS is critical for United Kingdom %Attemptedb %Attempted %Attempted %Attempted % Intendeda % Intended % Intended % Intended United States tobacco marketing, the POS pack displays have tradition- ally served as a prompt for smokers to purchase tobacco Australia Canada rather than avoid it, and to pose a risk for relapse for those who have quit [22,23]. a © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction Addiction, 107, 425–433
  • 7. Association between POS warnings and quitting interest and attempts 431 Table 3 Association between exposure to point-of-sale (POS) anti-smoking warnings and interest in quitting—generalized estimating equation (GEE) modelling results. Adjusted odds ratioa 95% CI P-value Australia POS warnings 1.139 1.039–1.249 <0.01 Seen in other health warning domains (number) 1.065 1.034–1.097 <0.001 Overall salience of anti-smoking information 1.090 1.052–1.129 <0.001 Canada POS warnings 0.919 0.826–1.022 0.122 Seen in other health warning domains (number) 1.096 1.064–1.129 <0.001 Overall salience of anti-smoking information 1.035 0.997–1.075 0.071 United Kingdom POS warnings 1.014 0.908–1.132 0.806 Seen in other health warning domains (number) 1.072 1.044–1.101 <0.001 Overall salience of anti-smoking information 1.063 1.031–1.097 <0.001 United States POS warnings 0.911 0.825–1.007 0.069 Seen in other health warning domains (number) 1.065 1.037–1.094 <0.001 Overall salience of anti-smoking information 1.083 1.045–1.121 <0.001 Exposure and intention variables were from same wave (i.e. cross-sectional association). Exposure to POS health warnings was coded as ‘1’ for ‘yes exposed’, and ‘0’ for ‘not exposed’ (the referent). Main effect (not shown in table) for country and its interaction (exposure*country) was significant at the P < 0.001 level, therefore separate models were constructed for each country. aAdjusted for gender, age, ethnicity, baseline education, baseline income, endorsement for regulation of tobacco products at each wave, a compound measure of exposure to anti-smoking warnings in places other than POS, overall salience of anti-smoking information, cigarettes per day at each wave, wave and cohort. CI: confidence interval. Table 4 Longitudinal association between exposure to point-of-sale (POS) anti-smoking warnings and subsequent quit attempts— generalized estimating equation (GEE) modelling results. Adjusted odds ratioa 95% CI P-value Australia POS warnings 1.216 1.114–1.327 <0.001 Seen in other health warning domains (number) 0.995 0.968–1.023 0.718 Overall salience of anti-smoking information 1.042 1.006–1.079 0.023 Canada POS warnings 0.909 0.820–1.007 0.067 Seen in other health warning domains (number) 1.011 0.983–1.039 0.450 Overall salience of anti-smoking information 0.997 0.961–1.034 0.854 United Kingdom POS warnings 0.949 0.835–1.079 0.425 Seen in other health warning domains (number) 1.005 0.976–1.035 0.738 Overall salience of anti-smoking information 1.062 1.025–1.100 0.001 United States POS warnings 0.987 0.900–1.082 0.774 Seen in other health warning domains (number) 1.022 0.997–1.048 0.081 Overall salience of anti-smoking information 0.959 0.928–0.992 0.016 Exposure to POS health warnings was coded as ‘1’ for ‘yes exposed’, and ‘0’ for ‘not exposed’ (the referent). ‘Having made quit attempts’ were measured one wave AFTER the exposure to POS warning, and a ‘forward’ specification was used in the analysis. Main effect (not shown in table) for country and its interaction (exposure*country) was significant at the P < 0.001 level, therefore separate models were constructed for each country. aAdjusted for gender, age, ethnicity, baseline education, baseline income, endorsement for regulations of tobacco products at each wave, a compound measure of exposure to anti-smoking warnings in places other than POS, overall salience of anti-smoking information, cigarettes per day at each wave, wave and cohort. When interest in quitting was also adjusted for the effect remained essentially the same for each country, including the significant effect in Australia. CI: confidence interval. © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction Addiction, 107, 425–433