This analysis compares some data areas - Economy, Crime, Aviation, Energy, Transport, Health, Mortality. Housing and Construction - for Ireland for the years 2019 and 2020, illustrating the changes that have occurred between the two years. It shows some of the impacts of COVID-19 and of actions taken in response to it, such as the various lockdowns and other restrictions. The first lockdown clearly had major changes on many aspects of Irish society. The third lockdown which began at the end of the period analysed will have as great an impact as the first lockdown. The consequences of the events and actions that have causes these impacts could be felt for some time into the future.

1. Crime
Crime Classification Group Percentage Change
from 2019 to 2020
Number Change
from 2019 to 2020
01 Homicide Offences 2.78% 2
02 Sexual Offences -7.55% -244
03 Attempts Or Threats To Murder, Assaults, Harassments
And Related Offences
-2.97% -609
04 Dangerous Or Negligent Acts -0.14% -12
05 Kidnapping And Related Offences 1.47% 2
06 Robbery, Extortion And Hijacking Offences -15.02% -363
07 Burglary And Related Offences -21.44% -3,595
08 Theft And Related Offences -15.92% -10,741
09 Fraud, Deception And Related Offences 14.49% 991
10 Controlled Drug Offences 17.63% 3,394
11 Weapons And Explosives Offences 21.84% 544
12 Damage To Property And To The Environment -7.21% -1,567
13 Public Order And Other Social Code Offences -6.84% -2,227
15 Offences Against Government, Justice Procedures And
Organisation Of Crime
-22.72% -3,532
Overall recorded crimes
have reduced by 8.25%
and increased recorded
detection of crimes made
more visible such as drugs
offences.
Crime
Source: Crime statistics are available from
https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/crimeandjustice/archive/
They are available annualised by quarter up to 2020 Q3. There
are reservations about the accuracy of recorded crime statistics.
More details on the classification of crimes is available from
https://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/docu
ments/crimejustice/current/crimeclassification.pdf
Aviation
Aviation
``
Economy
Economy
r
Energy Transport
Health Housing And Construction Mortality
Energy Transport
Health
Housing and
Construction
Mortality
Change In Fuel Imports
Between 2019 and 2020
Diesel Petrol
Jan -5.53% -0.42%
Feb -1.40% 3.43%
Mar -21.83% -10.05%
Apr -72.31% -54.56%
May -49.36% -39.42%
Jun -33.26% -17.04%
Jul -15.03% -5.58%
Aug -15.22% -8.23%
Sep -10.79% -2.69%
Oct -29.26% -13.51%
Nov -37.67% -16.75%
Overall -22.10% -32.85%
Fuel Data Not Available For Dec 2020
Change In Fuel Imports
Between 2019 and 2020
Bio LPG Kerosene
Jan 7.65% -5.64%
Feb 3.49% 37.12%
Mar 46.54% 85.33%
Apr -42.69% 71.98%
May -48.88% 142.23%
Jun 51.04% 6.09%
Jul 84.40% 41.26%
Aug 68.06% -35.58%
Sep 51.71% -36.02%
Oct 79.55% -3.15%
Nov 59.01% -14.36%
Overall 19.61% 1.76%
Fuel Data Not Available For Dec 2020
Diesel and petrol imports are significantly down in 2020 when compared to 2019.
For example, comparing April 2019 and 2020, Diesel imports fell by 72.31% and
Petrol by 54.56%. This indicates a significant decrease in all forms of private and
commercial road vehicle usage. Imports of home heating fuels such as Bio LPG
and Kerosene increased significantly indicating more people working or staying
at home and heating their homes. Assuming that all imported fuels are used,
emissions of CO2 from these sources dropped by 10.35% between the intervals
Jan-Nov 2019 and 2020.
The pattern of increasing gas usage from
2017 has been reversed. Gas utilisation is
down slightly in 2020. This can be explained
by any reduction in commercial office usage
being offset by increased use of gas for
domestic heating by people staying at and
working from home.
Patterns of electricity usage
changed during the first
lockdown. Usage peaked more
than a hour later in the
morning.
This changed after the end of
the first lockdown and has not
been repeated. The third
lockdown, not shown in here,
may repeat the pattern of the
first.
Sources:
Electricity System Demand: http://smartgriddashboard.eirgrid.com/
Gas: https://www.gasnetworks.ie/corporate/gas-
regulation/transparency-and-publicat/dashboard-reporting/
Petrol and Diesel Imports: https://www.nora.ie/statistics.312.html
Total Flights Across All Three
Airports
2019 2019Change
Jan 19,402 18,801 -3.10%
Feb 17,996 18,026 0.17%
Mar 20,752 14,479 -30.23%
Apr 22,984 2,226 -90.32%
May 25,162 2,399 -90.47%
June 25,436 2,716 -89.32%
July 26,602 7,455 -71.98%
Aug 26,501 9,243 -65.12%
Sept 25,196 7,664 -69.58%
Oct 23,924 6,128 -74.39%
Nov 19,084 3,919 -79.46%
Dec 19,515 4,196 -78.50%
Total 274,573 99,272 -63.84%
Change Between 2019 and 2020
Flights People
(Thousands)
Average
People Per
Flights
Jan -3.10% 1.48% 4.73%
Feb 0.17% 2.28% 2.11%
Mar -30.23% -57.52% -39.12%
Apr -90.32% -99.23% -92.01%
May -90.47% -98.71% -86.46%
June -89.32% -97.52% -76.74%
July -71.98% -89.39% -62.13%
Aug -65.12% -85.33% -57.93%
Sept -69.58% -87.86% -60.09%
Oct -74.39% -91.34% -66.21%
Nov -79.46% -93.19% -66.83%
Dec No Tourism Data Available for Dec
2020
Sources:
Flight Statistics - https://www.iaa.ie/who-we-are/flight-statistics
Tourism Statistics - ASM01 Air and Sea Travel
https://ws.cso.ie/public/api.restful/PxStat.Data.Cube_API.ReadDataset/ASM01/
XLSX/2007/en
Inward and outward
air travel fell
dramatically from April
2020 onwards and has
not seen any
significant recovery to
2019 numbers.
The movement of people into and
out of Ireland almost stopped in
April 2020, falling by over 99% when
compared with April 2019.
The average number of people per
flight fell to 11 in April 2020,
compared to 140 in April 2019.
Despite a small increase in July,
August and September 2020, the
number of air travellers has not
increased substantially April 2020.
The average flight occupancy in
November 2020 was 45 compared
with over 130 in November 2019.
Billions
Debt Composition 2020 2019 Change
Government Bonds 136.8 130.1 5.16%
EU and UK Bilateral Loans 41.4 43.3 -4.40%
State Savings Products 18.8 17.8 5.78%
Short Term Paper 14.0 10.0 40.28%
Other Medium and Long Term Debt 4.1 2.6 57.56%
Borrowing from Ministerial Funds 4.3 3.0 44.20%
TOTAL 219.5 206.8 6.13%
Unemployment increased by over 66% since the
middle of the first lockdown and has not reduced
significantly since then.
Government borrowing increased by €12.7
billion by the end of 2020 from the end of 2019.
Credit and Debit Card
Spending Category
Jan-Nov
2019
Jan-Nov
2020
Change
Transport 4,305,905 1,999,097 -53.57%
Accommodation 2,452,974 1,318,723 -46.24%
Outside Ireland 7,115,575 4,569,511 -35.78%
ATM Withdrawals 17,888,583 12,026,606 -32.77%
Restaurants/Dining 3,325,908 2,595,054 -21.97%
Entertainment 1,723,707 1,541,634 -10.56%
Clothing 2,642,842 2,528,263 -4.34%
Health 1,219,494 1,265,970 3.81%
Education 705,706 740,497 4.93%
Professional Services 2,763,483 2,931,889 6.09%
Other 8,269,395 9,576,719 15.81%
E-Commerce 19,861,449 23,096,965 16.29%
Hardware 3,198,365 3,832,080 19.81%
Electrical Goods 1,246,613 1,581,136 26.83%
Groceries/Perishables 9,748,272 12,601,003 29.26%
Utilities 1,998,491 2,635,687 31.88%
Total 88,466,762 84,840,834 -4.10%
The pattern of debit and credit card spending changed from
2019 to 2020. Payments on transport, accommodation, dining
and usage outside Ireland all fell substantially. Payments on
utilities increased indicating the increased home working and
heating of homes.
The pattern
of increasing
GNP has been
reversed in
2020. GNP in
Q3 2020 is 4%
lower than
Q3 2019.
Sources:
Card Spending - https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/data-and-
analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/credit-and-debit-card-
statistics
Composition of Debt - https://www.ntma.ie/business-
areas/funding-and-debt-management/statistics
Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Unemployment -
https://ws.cso.ie/public/api.restful/PxStat.Data.Cube_API.ReadDa
taset/MUM01/XLSX/2007/en
GNP - https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/nationalaccounts/archive/
Tax Receipts - http://databank.finance.gov.ie/FinDataBank.aspx
3-6
Months
Queue
0-3
Months
Queue
6-9
Months
Queue
12-15
Months
Queue
9-12
Months
Queue
15-18
Months
Queue
18+
Months
Queue
Source: Waiting List Data -
https://data.ehealthireland.ie/group/ntpf
Reductions in the size of lower waiting list time bands indicates that fewer people are being
admitted to waiting lists because they are not being seen and people not being treated are
moving to longer duration time bands.
Fewer New
Patients
Entering
Waiting
Lists
The total “queue months”
– the aggregate number
of months all patients on
waiting lists (assuming
those in the 0-3 queue
are waiting an average of
1.5 months, etc.) has
increased from an
estimated 8,524,071
queue months to an
estimated 11,172,681
queue months, an overall
increase of 31.07%.
This indicates a double –
few newer patients
being added and
existing patients not
being treated and
waiting longer –
accumulation of latent
and, unfulfilled demand
for health services,
created by deferring
non-COVID-related
treatments, that may be
difficult to process,
leading to worse health
outcomes.
Residential property prices have not been significantly
affected in 2020.
There was a reduction
in planning permissions
granted for residential
properties in the
second quarter of
2020. In the third
quarter, the number
increased to pre-COVID
levels.
The number of building
commencement notes
for residential properties
dropped during the
period of the first
lockdown and have not
increased to pre-COVID
levels.
The total number of residential property transactions
in 2020 was 47,750, 18.78% less than the 58,791
recorded in 2019. The total value of residential
transactions in 2020 was €14,983,429,488, 17% less
than the €18,052,264,585 recorded in 2019.
Reduction in residential building and planning
activity, combined with no reduction in property
prices and a short and temporary reduction in sales
transactions would tend to indicate a future
shortage of residential properties with continuing
demand and no reduction in prices.
Sources:
Property Price Register - https://propertypriceregister.ie/Website/NPSRA/pprweb.nsf/page/ppr-home-en
Mortgage Approvals - https://bpfi.ie/publications/bpfi-mortgage-approvals-report-december-2020/
Commencement Notices -
https://ws.cso.ie/public/api.restful/PxStat.Data.Cube_API.ReadDataset/HSM13/XLSX/2007/en
Planning Permissions - https://ws.cso.ie/public/api.restful/PxStat.Data.Cube_API.ReadDataset/BHQ05/XLSX/2007/en
Residential Property Price Index -
https://ws.cso.ie/public/api.restful/PxStat.Data.Cube_API.ReadDataset/HPM09/XLSX/2007/en
Ireland – 2019 And 2020 Compared In Data
Customs Excise
Duty
Capital
Gains Tax
Capital
Acquisitions
Tax
Stamp
Duties
Income
Tax
Corporation
Tax
Valued
Added Tax
Motor
Vehicle
Duties
Total
2019 348.51 5,940.37 1,075.06 532.98 1,514.91 22,934.49 10,887.57 15,117.60 962.10 59,315.61
2020 275.65 5,447.81 951.32 493.82 2,089.94 22,710.83 11,832.77 12,423.56 939.23 57,166.94
Change -72.86 -492.56 -123.74 -39.17 575.03 -223.66 945.20 -2,694.05 -22.87 -2,148.68
Change % -20.91% -8.29% -11.51% -7.35% 37.96% -0.98% 8.68% -17.82% -2.38% -3.62%
Tax receipts in 2020 are down by
over two billion when compared
with 2019.
Sample Traffic Data
Taken From M50
Between Junction 7 and
Junction 9
The pattern of weekday traffic volumes
if very different in 2020 than in 2019. In
2019, the weekday traffic volumes show
a consistent pattern with well-defined
morning and afternoon peaks and
hourly volumes in 8,000 to 12,000
range.
In 2020, the pattern in very different.
There are many weeks when the traffic
volumes are less than 5,00 per hour..
The pattern of
weekday traffic
during the first
lockdown interval
shows a significant
reduction in traffic
volumes over the
similar interval in
2019.
The reduction in traffic volumes during the first
lockdown interval is between 35% and 70%.
This uses data from RIP.ie. The RIP.ie web site contains death
notices from which more recent and more detailed mortality
data can be inferred. But the data has many issues:
• There are duplicate notices for the same death.
• There are notices for deaths that occur in Northern
Ireland.
• There are for deaths of Irish people that occurred outside
Ireland other than Northern Ireland.
• Death notices are not published for foreign nationals who
have died in Ireland, including both visitors and temporary
workers but whose deaths will appear in the CSO data.
• Some deaths will not have a death notice.
• Some death notices will not have a date of death.
RIP.ie data is used because of the poor quality of published
mortality information.
Source:
NTR Traffic Data:
https://www.nratrafficdata.ie/
The differences in the number of deaths
in the two years will be due to many
factors such as:
• Reduced expected deaths due to
lockdown-related factors and
associated reduction of economic
activities – road traffic and other
travel-related, crime, workplace
accidents, reduced deaths of foreign
visitors to Ireland
• Deaths caused by COVID-19 that
would not have happened.
• Deaths attributed to COVID-19 but
which would have happened
anyway within the measurement
interval.
• Excess deaths due to but not
attributed to COVID-19.
• Excess deaths due to factors such as
failure to seek medical attention for
serious illness, failure of emergency
services to respond to call
sufficiently quickly because of
perceived or actual excess workload,
possible increased rate of suicide
and Excess deaths due to Irish
people who would have died on
holidays abroad but who now have
died while remaining in Ireland.
There is a definite increase in deaths between
2019 and 2019 from 23 March 2019
16 May 2019. Thereafter the pattern is much
less clear.
2020 is a Leap Year and so there is an extra
day when deaths will occur. This will account
for roughly an additional 85 deaths.
Deaths
2019 31,173
2020 32,093
Difference 920
There is some variation in the proportion
of deaths that are recorded on different
days of the week. There is no real pattern
or significance to the variations. In
general, slightly fewer deaths occur on
Saturdays, Sundays and Wednesdays.
Source:
Death Notices: https://www.rip.ie/
There is a double-hit to aviation:
flights down by over 74% and
average flight occupancy down by
over 67% since the start of
restrictions, leading to an over
90% reduction in passengers.
2019 2020 Difference
Mortage Approvals 25,067 23,155 -7.63%
Approval Amount
(Millions)
5,789 5,617 -2.97%
Average Approval
Amount
€230,576 €241,821 4.88%
X
Size of shorter
waiting
queues drop
Size of longer waiting
queues increase
This compares some data areas for Ireland for the years 2019 and 2020 illustrating the changes between the two years.
It shows some of the impacts on both COVID-19 and of actions taken in response, such as the various lockdowns and
other restrictions.
The first lockdown clearly had major changes. The third lockdown which began at the end of the period analysed will
have as great an impact as the first lockdown.
Patterns of spending
have changed with
significant drops in
areas like transport
and large increases in
areas such as utilities,
indicating a hidden
increased cost of
people working from
home.
Large Numbers Of Existing Patients Are Simply Moving Further
Down The Queue