20. Qualitative Methods of Demand Forecasting Method Advantages Disadvantages Estimation People in position estimate the number of people the firm will require in the next yr. Incorporates knowledge of corporate plans in making estimates May be subjective Expert opinion Panel of experts forecast HR requirements for particular future business scenarios. For this method, there may be a single expert, or estimates of several experts may be pooled together Delphi Experts go through several rounds of estimates with no face-to-face meeting Incorporates future plans & knowledge of experts related to mkt., industry & technical development Subjective, time consuming & may ignore data Group brainstorming Face-to-face discussion based on multiple assumptions about future business direction Generates lot of ideas Does not lead to conclusion Nominal group technique Face-to-face discussion Group exchanges facilitate plans Subjective which may ignore data Simple averaging Simple averaging of viewpoints Diverse view points taken Extremes views are masked when averaged
21. Quantitative Methods of Demand Forecasting Method Advantages Disadvantages Trend analysis & projection Based on past relationship between a business factor related to employment & employment level itself Simple long-run trend analysis Extrapolates past relationship between volume of business activity & employment levels into the future Recognizes linkage between employment & business activity Assumes that volume of business activity of firm for forecast period will continue at same rate as previous yrs Ignores multiplicity of factors influencing employment levels Regression analysis Regresses employment needs onto key variables Data driven Uses multiple business factors Difficult to use & apply
22. Quantitative Methods of Demand Forecasting Method Advantages Disadvantages Simulation models Uses probabilities of future events to estimate future employment levels Makes several assumptions about the future regarding external & internal environment Simultaneously examines several factors Costly & complicated Workload analysis Based on actual content of work HR requirements based on expected output of the firm Productivity changes taken into account Job analysis may not be accurate Difficult to apply Markov analysis Probabilistic Based on past relationship between business factor related to employment & employment level itself Data driven Assumes that nature of jobs has not changed over time Applicable to stable environment
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