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Glacier melt

           John M. Reynolds
    Reynolds International Ltd, Mold, UK
2
Changes in glaciers over time


                                Andes




                                Patagonia



                IPCC (2007)
3
Glacial hazards and climate change
As climate changes:
• The number of glacial lake systems
        increases
• The volume of water stored in lakes
        increases
    → The hazard increases




                                        Rural development is increasing into
                                        the high mountains:
                                        •   More roads, bridges;
                                        •   Mining
                                        •   Hydropower
                                        •   Communities
                                        •   Tourist trails/lodges
                                            → The vulnerability increases
4
Residual lake


                Breach




                         Houses
Dig Tsho, Nepal, 1985   (Courtesy of WECS)




6
The imminent destruction of the Machupicchu HEP scheme, Peru, 1998.
         Net cost to the Peruvian economy ~$200 million over 3 years

7
Glacial hazards and mining

                        Debris-covered glaciers




    Debris
                         Water




8
                     Copper mine in Chile
9   Destruction of mine haul roads through ice flow and wash-out, Chile
Glacial hazard management dilemma
                                            Drain the
                                      potential flood waters
                                          from the lake
      Keep the water reservoir
             in the lake




     Maintain water resource?    OR     Reduce the Hazard?

                     Or can we do both?
10
Hualcán, Peru            © JMR, 1993




                             1993
                                       © CP, 1988




                             1988
                      1988
     © JMR, 1988
11
Hualcán case history, 11th April 2010




     Photo: C. Portocarrero, April 2010


12
Impact of climate change
                                       on glaciers: conclusions




     • Generally, glaciers are shrinking in response to climate change,
       with implications for future water supplies and usage
     • Glacial hazards are growing and changing with time
     • Communities, hydropower, infrastructure and mining, etc., are
       being adversely affected with significant economic costs
     • Hazards can be identified and risks assessed objectively
     • Risks can be reduced and resource management improved
       through implementation of an integrated strategy


13
Thank you
     for your attention




14
Independent geological & geophysical consultants


      Reynolds International Ltd
            Unit 17, Mold Business Park
      Wrexham Road, Mold, Flintshire, CH7 1XP

     Tel: +44-1352-756196; Fax: +44-1352-759353

       Email: info@reynolds-international.co.uk
       Web: www.reynolds-international.co.uk




15

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Agua y Cambio Climático 1 glacier melt

  • 1.
  • 2. Glacier melt John M. Reynolds Reynolds International Ltd, Mold, UK 2
  • 3. Changes in glaciers over time Andes Patagonia IPCC (2007) 3
  • 4. Glacial hazards and climate change As climate changes: • The number of glacial lake systems increases • The volume of water stored in lakes increases → The hazard increases Rural development is increasing into the high mountains: • More roads, bridges; • Mining • Hydropower • Communities • Tourist trails/lodges → The vulnerability increases 4
  • 5. Residual lake Breach Houses
  • 6. Dig Tsho, Nepal, 1985 (Courtesy of WECS) 6
  • 7. The imminent destruction of the Machupicchu HEP scheme, Peru, 1998. Net cost to the Peruvian economy ~$200 million over 3 years 7
  • 8. Glacial hazards and mining Debris-covered glaciers Debris Water 8 Copper mine in Chile
  • 9. 9 Destruction of mine haul roads through ice flow and wash-out, Chile
  • 10. Glacial hazard management dilemma Drain the potential flood waters from the lake Keep the water reservoir in the lake Maintain water resource? OR Reduce the Hazard? Or can we do both? 10
  • 11. Hualcán, Peru © JMR, 1993 1993 © CP, 1988 1988 1988 © JMR, 1988 11
  • 12. Hualcán case history, 11th April 2010 Photo: C. Portocarrero, April 2010 12
  • 13. Impact of climate change on glaciers: conclusions • Generally, glaciers are shrinking in response to climate change, with implications for future water supplies and usage • Glacial hazards are growing and changing with time • Communities, hydropower, infrastructure and mining, etc., are being adversely affected with significant economic costs • Hazards can be identified and risks assessed objectively • Risks can be reduced and resource management improved through implementation of an integrated strategy 13
  • 14. Thank you for your attention 14
  • 15. Independent geological & geophysical consultants Reynolds International Ltd Unit 17, Mold Business Park Wrexham Road, Mold, Flintshire, CH7 1XP Tel: +44-1352-756196; Fax: +44-1352-759353 Email: info@reynolds-international.co.uk Web: www.reynolds-international.co.uk 15