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10 years of kanban - what have we learned

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The history of Kanban applied in IT, knowledge work & creative services, telling the time line of innovations and adoption. Conclusions on what we've learned and a vision for the future direction enabling Enterprise Services Planning

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10 years of kanban - what have we learned

  1. 1. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja 10 Years of Kanban What have we Learned? It’s antifragile too! It’s great for service delivery! Presenter David J. Anderson LeanKanban UK November 2014
  2. 2. 2004-2006 Microsoft XIT Sustaining Eng. Deferred commitment pull system coupled to probabilistic understanding of lead time • Improved productivity over 200% • Greatly improved predictability • Shortened lead times by ~90% dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Use of Kanban systems is minimally intrusive for engineers. Process methodologies didn’t change • PSP/TSP remained in use throughout
  3. 3. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Conclusion Kanban is good for service delivery
  4. 4. 2006 Validating Evidence Eric Landes at Robert Bosch copies XIT solution for intranet maintenance and produces similar results dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja HP Printer Firmware Division, Boise, Idaho, implements a kanban system as part of a Lean initiative and attributes 400% of an 800% productivity improvement to kanban. Lead times fall from 21 months to 3.5 months
  5. 5. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Conclusion Kanban and its results are repeatable
  6. 6. 2007 Kanban Method Emerges Kanban systems aren’t enough when there is too much variability in the workflow and too much heterogeneity of work types and trouble matching worker skills & experience • Now known as a system liquidity problem dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja • Visual boards are introduced • Kanban limits create stress & provoke process improvements • Multiple classes of service emerge
  7. 7. 2007 Kanban Method Matures A combination of elements of Kanban such as system replenishment, classes of service, understanding cost of delay, transparency and metrics start to change entire company culture Operations review drives BU dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja wide improvements and starts to influence other BUs within the firm
  8. 8. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Conclusion The Kanban Method is a management system for cultural change & improving organizational maturity
  9. 9. 2007 First Kanban Software Digital Whiteboard application developed by Darren Davis at Corbis runs on top Microsoft Team Foundation Server dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Workers run Digital Whiteboard on their desktop but continue to use physical boards in parallel
  10. 10. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Conclusion We need software to get good metrics easily and amplify the management value of Kanban
  11. 11. 2007 Kanban on Big Projects $11 million budget project with up to 55 people, 16 month schedule, approximately 2400 user story scope dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja 2-tiered kanban boards emerge to visualize parent-child dependencies in Introdureceqsu ihryembreidn tosf dedicated teams and floating project personnel using avatars • Specialists such as architects, UX • Generalists who can help any team
  12. 12. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Conclusion Kanban is useful on large projects to improve predictability. More guidance on prioritizing backlogs is required at large scale.
  13. 13. Agile 2007 Conference Kanban presented in the CwaC open space with 25 attendees. Online community starts with Yahoo! group kanbandev Early adopters of Kanban are dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja teams struggling with Scrum at Yahoo! coached by Karl Scotland, Joe Arnold & Aaron Sanders in UK, India & San Jose
  14. 14. 2008 Personal Kanban Adaptation If this is so good for our service delivery shouldn’t we be using it help us be more organized and get things done at a personal level? Personal Kanban emerges as dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja a concept • At Modus Cooperandi offices in Seattle • Elsewhere at firms such as IPC in London
  15. 15. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja 2008 Scrumban Corey Ladas coins the term “Scrumban” to describe organizations currently using Scrum who apply Kanban to evolve to uniquely tailored process solutions such as those at Yahoo! In 2014, most people still don’t get this! • Scrumban isn’t a process. It is a journey (or story) of organizations embracing evolutionary change and evolving away from canonical Scrum It’s not Scrum or Kanban • But, Scrum+Kanban -> Uniquely tailored unbranded process
  16. 16. 2008 Early Adopters Emerge Media, Internet & SaaS firms suffer from acute, self-evident cost of delay and ‘tyranny of the timebox’ challenges. Kanban address these issues for them  BBC and IPC Media in London  NBC Universal in LA & New York  Motley Fool in Washington DC area  Constant Contact (Boston) & Ultimate (Ft. Lauderdale), both SaaS firms dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Media, Internet, SaaS firms are primary early adopters
  17. 17. 2008 – Decision Filters for Leaders  Agile Decision Filter • Make progress with imperfect dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja information • Encourage a high trust culture • Treat WIP as a liability rather than an asset  Lean Decision Filter • Value trumps flow • Flow trumps waste elimination • Eliminate waste to improve efficiency, do not pursue economies of scale
  18. 18. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja 2009
  19. 19. 2009 Lean Kanban Conference First community conference held in Miami. Only 58 attendees. Sponsored by Ultimate Software (who will continue to support us for the next 6 years) dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Full day, single track of Kanban content includes case studies from • Motley Fool • SEP • Inkubook / Authorhouse • Phidelis • Yahoo!
  20. 20. 2009 Definition of Kanban Method  Principles Recognizing that kanban systems were part of a wider management system, the whole system is named for the use of kanban systems • Start with what you do now • Agree to pursue evolutionary change • Initially, respect existing roles, dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja responsibilities & job titles  Practices • Visualize, Limit WIP • Manage Flow, Make Policies Explicit • Implement Feedback Loops • Improve collaboratively, evolve The Kanban Method is positioned as an approach to evolutionary improvement experimentally
  21. 21. 2009 “Be Like Water” http://joecampbell.wordpress.com/2009/05/13/be-like-water/ Joe Campbell’s blog post inspires step 1 of the Ladder of Escalating Motivation for Change, and our primary strategy for resistance to change which is to avoid it This will lead to the comparison dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja of Kanban with Bruce Lee’s journey with Jeet June Do, and the development of Fitness for Purpose and the concept of an adaptive anti-fragile enterprise
  22. 22. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja 2009 Cost of Delay • Beginning to understand Cost of Delay as a qualitative taxonomy • Introduction of sketches of cost of delay function shapes at Posit Science in San Francisco Better understanding of classes of service emerges, including archetype set of 4 with names: Expedite, Fixed Date, Standard, Intangible
  23. 23. 2009 More Validating Evidence First case emerges which replicates the cultural effects observed in 2007 at Corbis • IPC Media, London (Rob Hathaway, Indigo Blue) dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja First real evidence that the Kanban Method is a repeatable and predictable system of management
  24. 24. 2009 Commercial Software Entrepreneurs introduce commercial Kanban software products. Initial products come from fans who’ve followed the journey for years dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Leankit Kanban from Nashville, Tenessee Tools for Agile, Silver Catalyst, Pune, India
  25. 25. 2009 Risk Assessment Qualitative risk assessment methods introduced to provide “prioritization” for large projects and service delivery where cost of delay isn’t the most significant risk factor dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Generalized definition of classes of service to include multiple risk dimensions “A class of service is a set of policies that describe how an item should be treated based on its risk”
  26. 26. 2009 Where to Start Guidance  Enterprise scale Kanban adoption: where do you start? • Must be highly visible • Must not be mission critical • Must be dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja 1) in so much pain, no one cares what you try, 2) management keen to “go Lean”, 3) management wish to shift risk up/down value stream
  27. 27. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja 2009 Real Options Deferred commitment with kanban systems and concepts of Real Options from Chris Matts, Olav Maasen and others begin to converge • Chris Matts puts some definition around Staff Liquidity concept • Staff Liquidity presented at USC CSSE Research Review
  28. 28. 2009 “Tyranny of the Timebox” “Tyranny of the Timebox” concept emerges at Agile 2009 after Arlo Belshee/Jim Shore explain the discontinuity from discrete processes (timeboxes) to continuous processes (kanban systems) dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja • Simply making timeboxes smaller to improve agility would never lead you to adopt Kanban. • Kanban was a discontinuous and non-obvious innovation in the Agile community
  29. 29. 2009 Portfolio Kanban First Portfolio Kanban example presented at Agile 2009 dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja • There is no WIP limit at the portfolio level • Limit WIP on projects, MMFs or MVPs doesn’t make sense
  30. 30. 2010 – Kanban “blue book” dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja
  31. 31. 2010 Brickell Key Awards  BBC recognized as first large scale adopter of Kanban replicating the viral spread seen at Corbis but on a much larger scale  David Joyce of the BBC recognized together with Alisson Vale of Phidelis as first winners of the Brickell Key Award  Best Kanban implementations are in UK & Brazil dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja
  32. 32. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja 2010 - STATIK Recognizing the need to teach people how to get started with Kanban, training classes adopt the use of the STATIK exercises STATIK = the Systems Thinking Approach To Implementing Kanban • the method is presented at conference in 2012 • the acronym will not be introduced until 2013
  33. 33. 2010 High Maturity Organizations Kanban is recognized as a method that encourages adoption of higher maturity quantitative methods dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Kanban is also recognized as a key part of accelerated organizational maturity improvement • Published case studies talking decsribe CMMI ML1-ML2 in 3 months, ML2-ML3 in 9 months, ML3-ML5 in 9 months • These timescales are “off the scale” compared to typical timescales for CMMI adoption
  34. 34. 2010 Upstream Kanban Initially in Belgium and France dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Upstream Kanban will evolve into Discovery Kanban lead by Patrick Staeyert and his client Nemetschek Skia. Case study will be published in 2013
  35. 35. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja 2010 Proto-Kanban First recognized in the Posit Science case study in 2009, pre-kanban system implementations without a full pull system are recognized as an important part of the coaching toolbox Richard Turner of the Stevens Institute coins the term “proto- Kanban” to describe these pre-pull system implementations that eventually evolve into full Kanban 3 Types of Proto-Kanban are eventually recognized • Aggregated personal kanban • Aggregated team kanban • Per-person WIP limits
  36. 36. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja 2010 IT Operations  IT Ops people begin appearing in classes  They want to design aggregated personal kanban boards • Specialist workers often dedicated to single work-item type • Refactor to lanes for types, multi-skilled workers with avatars  Demand analysis & capacity allocation become even more important • Especially for unplanned, irrefutable work (push)
  37. 37. 2010 Break out from IT Sector Stories of Kanban in HR/Recruitment, Sales, and other functions emerge dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Medium-sized owner-managed firms begin to adopt Kanban enterprise wide • e.g. Huddle Group, Argentina In 2011 stories of legal firms using Kanban for case files emerged in UK and New Zealand
  38. 38. 2011 Personal Kanban published dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Wins a Shingo Prize!
  39. 39. 2011 Large Scale Enterprise Adoption dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Business unit wide adoption begins to emerge at firms such as • Petrobras • McKesson • Vanguard • Amdocs
  40. 40. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Appropriateness An understanding emerges for appropriate conditions for adoption, including… • System dynamics (or mechanics) • Cultural, organizational, social, psychological factors • Complexity factors
  41. 41. 2011 Lean Kanban University established dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Accredited Kanban Trainer program inaugurated with 16 founding member companies and over 20 AKTs • Standardized “practitioner” curriculum published edu.leankanban.com
  42. 42. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja 2012 Data Analysis Community starts reporting data analysis on lead time distributions showing tails that are 5x to 10x greater than the mean Flow efficiency metric comes back into fashion as it is evident that size, complexity or skills/experience of workers don’t correlate to lead times • Increased focus on sources of delay: queues, blocking issues, dependencies
  43. 43. 2012 Optimal Exercise Point By understanding the cost of delay and the lead time distribution we can make a risk-based assessment of the best time to start something dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja If we can’t start at the optimal time we can understand whether to start an item earlier or later based on the nature of the cost of delay, or decide to discard the option
  44. 44. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja 2012 Kanban Kata Hakan Forss points out similarity to Kanban feedback loopsand Rother’s Toyota Kata Service Delivery Reviews (SDRs) become a formal part of the method. These are also known as System Capability Review but this name was dropped as being too internally focused
  45. 45. 2012 Depth of Kanban Assessment Hakan Forss challenges the idea that deep Kanban emerges linearly from visualization to experimental improvement as practices are added dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja A multi-dimensional model of depth of Kanban assessment emerges in both an absolute practice-based form and a relative assessment form. In 2014, it is updated to take more a values-based, observed outcome form
  46. 46. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja 2012 Little’s Flaw Dan Vacanti and Frank Vega’s work on the origins of Little’s Law in queuing theory and understanding from Savavge & Danzinger’s The Flaw of Averages shows us why it’s an appropriate tool for understanding flow in creative work Dimitar Bakardzhiev helps us understand why consistency of system performance allows us to use it as a forecasting tool. Understanding consistency of system performance becomes vital to reliable Little’s Law based forecasting & capacity allocation
  47. 47. 2012 Kanban System Liquidity Kanban system liquidity can be measured as the volume of pull transactions in the system and the laminar/turbulent nature of flow understood from its derivative. We don’t get it quite right in 2012 but watch out for liquidity becoming a core metric in forecasting tools in 2015 dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja System Liquidity meets Reinertsen’s criteria for a good metric • Simple • Self-generating • Relevant • Leading Indicator And it is a global metric which isn’t subject to local optimization
  48. 48. 2012 Lessons in Agile Management dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja The heavily under-rated book that underpins the Kanban Coaching Masterclass and most of the theory behind the Kanban Method
  49. 49. 2012 Crossing the Chasm Kanban  Compelling reason to buy • Senior people dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja  make promises I can keep  Improved governance • Middle managers  Up-manage with confidence – answer the hard questions  Down-manage with confidence – make the hard decisions • Individual contributors/Line managers  Relief from abusive environment (over-burdening)
  50. 50. 2012 Cost of Delay Updates Still using sketches including the market payoff function and understanding its sensitivity to time dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Qualitative Cost of Delay assessment now has 3 dimensions • Function shape • Order of magnitude in size • Shelf-life
  51. 51. 2013 Statistics & Simulation Lead time histograms observed to be Weibull distributions dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Monte Carlo simulation introduced as an optional feature in leading Kanban software products Troy Magennis wins Brickell Key Award for this work
  52. 52. 2013 – Kanban Agendas  Survivability • Resilience/anti-fragility • Evolutionary capability  Service-orientation • Fitness criteria metrics • Workflow • service level expectations  Sustainability • Relief from over-burdening dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja
  53. 53. 2013 Fitness for Purpose Service-orientation allows us to ask what makes a service “fit for purpose” dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Fitness criteria are metrics that measure things customers value when selecting a service again & again • Delivery time • Quality • Predictability • Safety (or conformance to regulatory requirements)
  54. 54. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja 2013 Kanban Lens Learn to view what you do now as a set of services (that can be improved): • What to look for…  Creative work is service-oriented  Service delivery involves workflow  Workflow involves a series of knowledge discovery activities • What to do…  Map the knowledge discovery workflow  Pay attention to how & why work arrives  Track work flowing through the service
  55. 55. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja 2013 Kanban Values Transparency Balance Collaboration Customer Focus Flow Leadership Understanding Agreement Respect
  56. 56. 2014 Kanban from the Inside dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja
  57. 57. 2013 Scale-free understanding Eliminating unbounded queues • Proto-kanban to full workflow kanban • Coupling interdependent network of kanban systems dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Andy Carmichael’s Smallest Possible Definition of Kanban See Flow, Start Here, With visible work & policies, validate improvements Core practices renamed “general practices” with specific practices at different scales • Personal/team Kanban • Service Delivery / Workflow Kanban • Portfolio Kanban
  58. 58. 2014 Kanban Litmus Test 1. Have managers changed their behavior? 2. Has the customer interface changed? 3. Has the customer contract changed? 4. Has the service delivery business model changed? If you can’t answer yes to at least 2 of these questions you aren’t doing Kanban yet! dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja
  59. 59. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja 2014 Risk Review Risk Review is added as a feedback loop to the Kanban Method Klaus Leopold pioneered the process of harvesting & custering blocker tickets. He goes on to experiment with other ways of visualizing & harvesting delay data
  60. 60. 2014 Fitness for Purpose Review Review customer stories Review Fitness criteria • Do they map to existing clusters? • Do we perceive customers of a • Or, do we see emerging new dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Regular recurring meeting with front-line staff • Perhaps performed at different given cluster/segment are happy and consider us “fit for purpose” organizational levels to roll-up information in larger scale organizations clusters? • What services or product features or service delivery expectations have emerged or changed?
  61. 61. 2014 What we now know!  Kanban systems are applicable for almost any creative or knowledge work service delivery workflow  The Kanban Method is appropriate wherever an evolutionary approach to change is desirable  Kanban works in low and high maturity organizations but basic maturity or converged workflow steps are required to model and implement a kanban system dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja
  62. 62. 2014 What we now know!  Use of Kanban consistently shows 200-800% productivity gains and 50-90% lead time improvements where a baseline is available  Personal Kanban is a “gateway drug” to introduce Kanban in the office  Personal Kanban in the office is known as Team Kanban and is a form of Proto-Kanban  Getting beyond Proto-Kanban is challenging!!! dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja
  63. 63. 2014 What we now know!  Kanban represents about 3% of the Agile market by revenue.  Shallow/Proto-Kanban is widely adopted but represents no market value • Physical boards • Little or no training or consulting  Kanban is more readily adopted by non-IT people who have no “methodology baggage” dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja
  64. 64. Modern Management Framework All of this knowledge is more than just kanban systems or what we ever dreamed of as Kanban dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Hence, we packaged it all up as the Modern Management Framework • Emphasize that Kanban is a management system and not a process • A framework because it is continually extending as we learn more
  65. 65. Modern Management Framework dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja
  66. 66. Modern Management Framework The Modern Management Framework is applicable to all creative services and knowledge worker service industries To be flippant… dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja • “Kanban should be bigger than Agile!” • Not measured as part of the Agile market at all
  67. 67. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja We need tools!  Existing Kanban software products largely seek to replicate the function of a physical board  They don’t actually help with real management problems  Most of the Modern Management Framework is easy to understand but laborious to implement • No one build a Gantt chart manually!  Without proper tooling adoption will be slow
  68. 68. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja A vision from 2003 In 2003, I described my work with Feature-driven Development (FDD) & Agile Management as “like MRP for Knowledge Work” Instead Don Reinertsen said, “you have all the pieces in place to adopt the use of kanban systems”
  69. 69. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Kanban to MRP  1947 Kanban in manufacturing – Taiichi Ohno • Term “kanban” not adopted until 1964  1964 Manufacturing Requirements Planning – Joseph Orlicky • Book published in 1975  Kanban to MRP 17 years
  70. 70. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja A vision for 2015 We now have all the pieces in place to start managing modern business where employees “think for a living” and make decisions – knowledge worker businesses – and managing them with the rigor, anticipation and risk awareness that I envisaged in 2003 I now call this future vision Enterprise Services Planning (ESP)
  71. 71. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Kanban to ESP  2004 Kanban in knowledge work (IT services) introduction at Microsoft, Dragos Dumitriu & David J. Anderson • Book published in 2010  2015 Enterprise Services Planning • A new class of software tools which implement the Modern Management Framework • Book published ????  Kanban to ESP 11 years?
  72. 72. ESP – Anticipating Demand, Allocating Combine the two, and across the organization you smooth flow dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Capacity Demand Observed Capability Demand end-to-end and help keep demand in balance with overall system capability Demand Observed Capability Observed Capability Looking downstream, you want the system to help you anticipate and mLoaonkaigneg dueppsetnredaemnc,i eysou want the system to help you anticipate and manage demand
  73. 73. Enterprise Services Planning dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja “The Future of Kanban”  “Fit for Purpose” service delivery • Fitness criteria metrics & classes of service tuned to market segments / source of customer demand  Anticipate Demand • Comprehend WIP limits, staffing levels and required liquidity levels  Shape Demand • Allocate capacity based on risk strategy and market or business objectives  Intelligent Human Capital Development • Determine real ROI for skills & experience investment
  74. 74. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Thank you!
  75. 75. About dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja David Anderson is an innovator in the management of 21st Century businesses that employ creative people who “think for a living” . He leads a training, consulting, publishing and event planning business dedicated to developing, promoting and implementing new management thinking & methods… He has 30 years experience in the high technology industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software organizations delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative methods at large companies such as Sprint and Motorola. David defined the Modern Management Framework and originated the Kanban Method an adaptive approach to improved service delivery. His latest book, published in 2012, is, Lessons in Agile Management – On the Road to Kanban. David is MD of David J. Anderson & Associates Ltd., a consulting and training firm operating globally offering management training solutions for 21st Century businesses whose employees make performance defining decisions daily.
  76. 76. Acknowledgements Kanban has been a community effort from scores of people some of whom are mentioned explicitly in this presentation others too numerous to mention here have been given credit along the way. However, none of this would have been possible were it not for the dedication, passion and energy of Janice Linden-Reed who has worked tirelessly to build the community since 2009. She is a founder of the Limited WIP Society and recipient of the Honorary Brickell Key Award for community contribution. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja
  77. 77. David J Anderson & Associates, Ltd. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja
  78. 78. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja Told you! Antifragile! I can’t believe he didn’t mention Cynefin!
  79. 79. dja@djaa.com, @djaa_dja