A case of Mbeya University of Science and Technology(MUST) By; Dr. Joel S. Mtebe Director of; Center for Virtual Learning University of Dar es Salaam Tanzania http://works.bepress.com/mtebe

1. USING LEARNING ANALYTICS TO PREDICT
STUDENTS’ PERFORMANCE IN MOODLE LMS
A case of Mbeya University of Science and
Technology
(MUST)
Dr. Joel S. Mtebe
University of Dar es Salaam,
Tanzania
http://works.bepress.com/mtebe/

2. Motivation, problem area
• Increased adoption of LMS in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Moodle sites (December 2015)
– South Africa (390)
– Kenya (109)
– Tanzania (49)
– Uganda (36)
• About 80% of institutions in Tanzania are using
various LMS.

3. Motivation, problem area
• No reliable evidence to suggest that institutions have been
utilizing LMS in a bid to improve students’ performance.
.

4. Research Objectives
• This study developed Learning Analytics tool to examine
students’ activities in Moodle LMS through utilizing data
from the system log.
• Developed Learning Analytics tool was used to analyze data
from the Moodle at Mbeya University of Science and
Technology (MUST)
• To determine the causal relationship between students’
activities in Moodle and final students’ results

5. Researchapproach, Methodology
• Quantitative research design with data gathered
from LMS log using the developed Learning
Analytics tool.
• The variables
– the number of downloads
– number of forum posts
– number of peer interactions
– the time spent on the system
– the number of logins performed and
– number of exercises performed by student.

6. Researchapproach, Methodology
• Data obtained from the Learning Analytics tool to
compare with students scores in the final exam
through linear regression analysis.
• Two (2) courses were used
– Applied Biology I (117 students)
– Services and Installation II (60 students)

7. Major Outcomes/Results
• Dashboard interface

8. Students’ Logins Frequency Searched For 111
Students
8

9. Applied Biology I Regression results
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10. Course 1
• The results show that
– Peer Interaction (beta value = 19.6%), and
– Forum Posts (beta value = 77.1%)
– have shown to have positive significant effect on
students’ performance
• Other variables were not significant
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11. Services and Installation II regression results
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12. Course 2
• The results show that
– Forum Posts (beta value=48.5%), and
– Exercise (beta value=51.5%)
– have shown to have positive significant effect on
students’ performance in the exam for courses offered
via the LMS.
• Other variables were not significant
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13. Discussion and Conclusion
• Forum Posts has shown to have significant effect
on students’ learning performance in both
courses.
– This means, students who were active in the discussion
forums during course delivery performed better that
those who were less active.

14. Discussion and Conclusion
• Peer Interaction had impact on students’
performance in Analysis for Applied Biology course.
– in order to increase students performance for student
taking courses offered via LMS instructors at MUST must
promote for peer interactions amongst students.
• Exercises was found to be the contributing factor in
students’ final score in the Service and Installation II
course.
– Instructors at MUST should consider giving their students
more exercises in order to improve their final scores

15. SUGGESTION FOR FUTURE
• Logs simply record learners’ behavior in LMS, but
they do not explain why some of the factors were
significant and some were not significant.
• Courses were not purely online
– there are many offline activities such as reading course-
related books or discussions with peers in offline
environment were not tracked in the LMS.

16. Conclusion
• The study designed and developed Learning
Analytics tool and use the tool to determine the
factors that have impact on student performance.
• The study has shown that Learning Analytic tools
are the powerful tools that can be used by our
institutions to predict the success and failure of
the installed LMS in our premises.
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17. Contacts
• Dr. Joel S. Mtebe
Center for Virtual Learning
University of Dar es Salaam
jmtebe@gmail.com
+255715383366
Web: http://works.bepress.com/mtebe

18. Slide Title
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