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IT, Digital Economy, and Global Change
Highlights from the TechCast Project
William E. Halal, George Washington University,
Bangkok University, and TechCast Global
Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing World
IT, Digital Economy, and Global Change
Highlights from the TechCast Project
Agenda:
§  TechCast Research Method
§  The Technology Revolution
§  IT and Digital Economy forecasts
§  Social Trends and Wild Cards
§  2020-2030 Most Likely Scenario
Participation Invited:
§  Impact on you, your organization, society?
§  Issues? Strategies?
Copies	
  available	
  at	
  author’s	
  discount	
  
5/11/16
Copyright W. Halal
TechCast Online Research System
Collective Intelligence for Tough Questions
• 9 Editors
• Internet
• Periodicals
• Literature
• Interviews
• Conferences
•  Adoption levels
•  Market Size
• Other Forecasts
• Trends Pro/Con
Background
Data
Scanning Expert
Survey
Results
• 130 Experts
•  Diverse Sample
• Thought Leaders
•  Enter Estimates
• Forecasts
• Comments
• Validate
• Rank 2-3/
105 M hits
Constant Updating
Status	
  Quo	
  Defined	
  as	
  
100	
  %	
  Uncertainty	
  
30	
  -­‐	
  40	
  %	
  Decrease	
  
In	
  Uncertainty	
  
30	
  -­‐	
  40	
  %	
  Decrease	
  
In	
  Uncertainty	
  
Uncertainty	
  about	
  30%	
  
Avg.	
  Error=	
  +1/-­‐	
  3	
  years	
  
3
Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing
The Technology Revolution
4
Moon Base
Replacement
Organs
Online
Publishing
E-Commerce
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Energy &
Environment
Information
Technology
Manufacturing
& Robotics
Digital Economy Medicine &
Biogenetics
Transportation Space
Alternative
Energy
Organic
Farming
Biometrics
Personal
Medicine
Child Traits
Star Travel
Cloud/Grid
Smart
Robots
Life Span =100
Space
Tourism
Small Aircraft
Humans On
Mars
NeuroTech
Hypersonic
Planes
MostLikelyYear
2040
Climate
Control
Micro
Machines
Intelligent
Cars
E-Health
Aquaculture
Smart
Grids
Entertainment
Green
Economy
Water Purif’n
Modular
Buildings
Cancer
Cure
Small
Vehicles
Genetic
Therapy
Power
Storage
Synthetic
Biology
Electric
Cars
Gen. 2
Computers
3 D
Printing
Commercial
Space
Solar
Satellites
GMO
Precision
Farming
Thought
Power
AI
Fuel Cell Cars
NanoTech
Designed
Materials
Mass
Custom’n
Hi-Speed
Trains
Internet of Things
TeleWork
Intelligent
Interface
Virtual
Reality Virtual
Education
E-Gov’t. Global
Brain
Intelligent
Web
off	
  scale	
  
Contact
Hybrid Cars
Copyright W. Halal
Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing5/11/16
IT
Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing World
Artificial Intelligence
	
  Highlights	
  from	
  Background	
  Data
§  $1B in ’93, $12B in ’02, $21B in ’07, $36B by 2015
§  Speech/emotion/visual interaction, deep learning, robots,
games & simulations, language translation, neural chips
§  Intelligent systems -- Siri, IBM Watson, Microsoft Bing,
Wolfram Alpha, Google, self-driving cars, etc.
§  Ubiquitous AI -- GE and IBM building AI systems for
health care, power grids, auto traffic and everything else
§  IBM, EU, others simulating the human brain
§  Kurzweil: $1000 PC with power of the brain by 2020
§  General AI comparable to humans ~ 2040
TechCast Forecast: Weak AI replaces routine knowledge work ~ 2025 +/- 6 yrs
Global market saturation ~ US$ 700 billion
6
Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing5/11/16
Digital Economy
Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing WorldCopyright W. Halal
Global Brain
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Highlights	
  from	
  Background	
  Data	
  
§  6 billion mobile phones (76% of world)
§  2 billion PCs, 12 billion devices
§  Wireless, shared devices, $100 laptop
§  Billions on Facebook, Twitter, Linkedin, etc.
§  One hundred billion mobile apps
§  Mobile transactions, global middle class
§  AR and VR coming
§  Universal access and higher speeds coming
TechCast 50% of world on Internet by 2019 +/- 2 years
Market ~ $1 trillion, IT total ~ $7 trillion
Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing
	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Forecast	
  Target	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Impact	
  
	
   	
   	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  (-­‐10	
  	
  to	
  +	
  10)	
  
2018	
  Extremism	
  Rises	
  	
   	
  	
  +1	
  na?on	
   	
  	
  -­‐2	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  System	
  Failures	
  	
   	
  	
  33%	
  	
  orgs	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  -­‐1	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Mature	
  Econ’s	
  Grow	
  	
  	
  3%	
  GDP	
   	
  
	
  +4	
  	
  
2019	
  Travel	
  Soars	
  	
   	
  	
  $10	
  T	
  global 	
  +2	
  
2020	
  Services	
  Dominate	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  50%	
  	
  employ.	
  	
   	
  +3	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Transparency	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  50%	
  	
  govt’s.	
  	
   	
  +5	
  	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Urbaniza?on	
  	
   	
  	
  60%	
  	
  pop.	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  +1	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Privacy	
  Dying	
  	
   	
  	
  50%	
  	
  na?ons	
  	
   	
  	
  -­‐1	
  	
  	
  	
  
2021	
  Jobs	
  Failure	
  	
   	
  	
  10%	
  	
  unemploy.	
  	
  	
  -­‐3	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Social	
  Responsibility	
  	
  	
  	
  50%	
  	
  corps.	
  	
   	
  +4	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Genera?on	
  Change	
  	
   	
  	
  50%	
  pop	
  	
   	
  +4	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Consumerism	
  Grows	
  	
  	
  67%	
  GDP	
   	
  +4	
  
Social Trends
9
2022	
  	
  Developing	
  Na?ons	
  Lead	
  	
   	
  5%	
  GDP	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  +3	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Legal	
  Pot	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
   	
  33%	
  G20	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  +3	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Environment	
  Demands	
  	
   	
  33%	
  G20	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  +6	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Sharing	
  Economy 	
   	
  30%	
  jobs	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  +4	
  
2023 Diversity	
  Spreads 50% G20 +5
2024	
  Mass	
  Migra?on	
  	
   	
   	
  20%	
  	
  pop	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  +3	
  	
  
2025	
  Working	
  Women	
  	
   	
   	
  70%	
  families	
  +5	
  	
  	
  
2026	
  Educa?on	
  Expands	
  	
   	
   	
  50%	
  college	
  	
  +6	
  
2028	
  Water	
  Wars	
  	
  	
  	
   	
   	
  3	
  wars	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  -­‐2	
  	
  
2029	
  Fer?lity	
  Falls	
  	
   	
   	
  1%	
  pop	
  gr	
  	
  	
  	
  +2	
  
2030	
  Global	
  Ethics	
  	
   	
   	
  30%	
  pop	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  +5	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Global	
  Graying	
  	
   	
   	
  25%	
  pop	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  +5	
  
Forecasts of Timing and Social Impact
Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing World
Wild Cards
Forecasts of Probability and Social Impact
	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  Probability	
  	
  	
  Impact	
  
§  Israel Conquered 2% -4
§  Asteroid Hit 8% -5
§  Nuclear War 9%
-7
§  Alien Contact 13% +3
§  UN Collapses 12% -2
§  Paranormal Proven 12% +2
§  Peace in Palestine 14% +4
§  Global Pandemic 16% -4
§  Bank Nationalization 21% +1
§  Democratic Business 26% +3
10
§  Global Depression 28% -3
§  China Falls 28% -1
§  Weather Control 33% +3
§  Solar Storm 33% -3
§  Space War 33% -4
§  Cyber Attack 34% -2
§  Human Cloning 36% +2
§  Superbugs 37% -3
§  Bio Attack 38% -5
§  Climate Shift 48% -3
§  Singularity Arrives 51% +2
§  Energy Weapons 58% -1
Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing World
2020-2030 Most Likely Scenario
Macro-Forecast of Technology, Social Trends & Wild Cards
1.  Sustainability Green business, GMO, alternative energy,
climate control, smart grids, precision farming, aquaculture
2.  Green Transportation Hybrid/electric smart cars, hi-speed
trains, next gen aircraft, hypersonic flight
3.  Mastery Over Life Replacement parts, DNA testing, body
monitoring, cancer cure, life extension, neurotechology
4.  Threats Across the Spectrum Depression, banking crisis,
job loss, pandemic, climate shift, cyber-war, bio-war, etc.
5.  Higher-Order Values Social responsibility, transparency,
environment, diversity, women, generation X, global ethics
6.  Infinite Knowledge and Intelligence E-everything,
global brain, 2nd generation IT (nano, bio, optical, quantum), AI,
robotics. Automation of routine thought. What Next?
7.  Global Consciousness Movement beyond knowledge.
Global MegaCrisis. Restructuring of institutions.
11
You	
  
THE END
THANK
12
Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing World
techcastglobal www.techcastglobal.com
5/11/16

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William Halal

  • 1. IT, Digital Economy, and Global Change Highlights from the TechCast Project William E. Halal, George Washington University, Bangkok University, and TechCast Global
  • 2. Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing World IT, Digital Economy, and Global Change Highlights from the TechCast Project Agenda: §  TechCast Research Method §  The Technology Revolution §  IT and Digital Economy forecasts §  Social Trends and Wild Cards §  2020-2030 Most Likely Scenario Participation Invited: §  Impact on you, your organization, society? §  Issues? Strategies? Copies  available  at  author’s  discount   5/11/16
  • 3. Copyright W. Halal TechCast Online Research System Collective Intelligence for Tough Questions • 9 Editors • Internet • Periodicals • Literature • Interviews • Conferences •  Adoption levels •  Market Size • Other Forecasts • Trends Pro/Con Background Data Scanning Expert Survey Results • 130 Experts •  Diverse Sample • Thought Leaders •  Enter Estimates • Forecasts • Comments • Validate • Rank 2-3/ 105 M hits Constant Updating Status  Quo  Defined  as   100  %  Uncertainty   30  -­‐  40  %  Decrease   In  Uncertainty   30  -­‐  40  %  Decrease   In  Uncertainty   Uncertainty  about  30%   Avg.  Error=  +1/-­‐  3  years   3
  • 4. Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing The Technology Revolution 4 Moon Base Replacement Organs Online Publishing E-Commerce 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Energy & Environment Information Technology Manufacturing & Robotics Digital Economy Medicine & Biogenetics Transportation Space Alternative Energy Organic Farming Biometrics Personal Medicine Child Traits Star Travel Cloud/Grid Smart Robots Life Span =100 Space Tourism Small Aircraft Humans On Mars NeuroTech Hypersonic Planes MostLikelyYear 2040 Climate Control Micro Machines Intelligent Cars E-Health Aquaculture Smart Grids Entertainment Green Economy Water Purif’n Modular Buildings Cancer Cure Small Vehicles Genetic Therapy Power Storage Synthetic Biology Electric Cars Gen. 2 Computers 3 D Printing Commercial Space Solar Satellites GMO Precision Farming Thought Power AI Fuel Cell Cars NanoTech Designed Materials Mass Custom’n Hi-Speed Trains Internet of Things TeleWork Intelligent Interface Virtual Reality Virtual Education E-Gov’t. Global Brain Intelligent Web off  scale   Contact Hybrid Cars Copyright W. Halal
  • 5. Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing5/11/16 IT
  • 6. Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing World Artificial Intelligence  Highlights  from  Background  Data §  $1B in ’93, $12B in ’02, $21B in ’07, $36B by 2015 §  Speech/emotion/visual interaction, deep learning, robots, games & simulations, language translation, neural chips §  Intelligent systems -- Siri, IBM Watson, Microsoft Bing, Wolfram Alpha, Google, self-driving cars, etc. §  Ubiquitous AI -- GE and IBM building AI systems for health care, power grids, auto traffic and everything else §  IBM, EU, others simulating the human brain §  Kurzweil: $1000 PC with power of the brain by 2020 §  General AI comparable to humans ~ 2040 TechCast Forecast: Weak AI replaces routine knowledge work ~ 2025 +/- 6 yrs Global market saturation ~ US$ 700 billion 6
  • 7. Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing5/11/16 Digital Economy
  • 8. Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing WorldCopyright W. Halal Global Brain                Highlights  from  Background  Data   §  6 billion mobile phones (76% of world) §  2 billion PCs, 12 billion devices §  Wireless, shared devices, $100 laptop §  Billions on Facebook, Twitter, Linkedin, etc. §  One hundred billion mobile apps §  Mobile transactions, global middle class §  AR and VR coming §  Universal access and higher speeds coming TechCast 50% of world on Internet by 2019 +/- 2 years Market ~ $1 trillion, IT total ~ $7 trillion
  • 9. Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing                              Forecast  Target                Impact                              (-­‐10    to  +  10)   2018  Extremism  Rises        +1  na?on      -­‐2                    System  Failures        33%    orgs          -­‐1                    Mature  Econ’s  Grow      3%  GDP      +4     2019  Travel  Soars        $10  T  global  +2   2020  Services  Dominate            50%    employ.      +3                    Transparency          50%    govt’s.      +5                      Urbaniza?on        60%    pop.          +1                    Privacy  Dying        50%    na?ons        -­‐1         2021  Jobs  Failure        10%    unemploy.      -­‐3                    Social  Responsibility        50%    corps.      +4                    Genera?on  Change        50%  pop      +4                    Consumerism  Grows      67%  GDP    +4   Social Trends 9 2022    Developing  Na?ons  Lead      5%  GDP                +3                      Legal  Pot              33%  G20            +3                      Environment  Demands      33%  G20            +6                      Sharing  Economy    30%  jobs            +4   2023 Diversity  Spreads 50% G20 +5 2024  Mass  Migra?on        20%    pop          +3     2025  Working  Women        70%  families  +5       2026  Educa?on  Expands        50%  college    +6   2028  Water  Wars            3  wars                      -­‐2     2029  Fer?lity  Falls        1%  pop  gr        +2   2030  Global  Ethics        30%  pop            +5                    Global  Graying        25%  pop            +5   Forecasts of Timing and Social Impact
  • 10. Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing World Wild Cards Forecasts of Probability and Social Impact          Probability      Impact   §  Israel Conquered 2% -4 §  Asteroid Hit 8% -5 §  Nuclear War 9% -7 §  Alien Contact 13% +3 §  UN Collapses 12% -2 §  Paranormal Proven 12% +2 §  Peace in Palestine 14% +4 §  Global Pandemic 16% -4 §  Bank Nationalization 21% +1 §  Democratic Business 26% +3 10 §  Global Depression 28% -3 §  China Falls 28% -1 §  Weather Control 33% +3 §  Solar Storm 33% -3 §  Space War 33% -4 §  Cyber Attack 34% -2 §  Human Cloning 36% +2 §  Superbugs 37% -3 §  Bio Attack 38% -5 §  Climate Shift 48% -3 §  Singularity Arrives 51% +2 §  Energy Weapons 58% -1
  • 11. Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing World 2020-2030 Most Likely Scenario Macro-Forecast of Technology, Social Trends & Wild Cards 1.  Sustainability Green business, GMO, alternative energy, climate control, smart grids, precision farming, aquaculture 2.  Green Transportation Hybrid/electric smart cars, hi-speed trains, next gen aircraft, hypersonic flight 3.  Mastery Over Life Replacement parts, DNA testing, body monitoring, cancer cure, life extension, neurotechology 4.  Threats Across the Spectrum Depression, banking crisis, job loss, pandemic, climate shift, cyber-war, bio-war, etc. 5.  Higher-Order Values Social responsibility, transparency, environment, diversity, women, generation X, global ethics 6.  Infinite Knowledge and Intelligence E-everything, global brain, 2nd generation IT (nano, bio, optical, quantum), AI, robotics. Automation of routine thought. What Next? 7.  Global Consciousness Movement beyond knowledge. Global MegaCrisis. Restructuring of institutions. 11
  • 12. You   THE END THANK 12 Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing World techcastglobal www.techcastglobal.com 5/11/16