EVERYTHING
YOU KNOW
ABOUT VIRTUAL
WORLDS
IS
WRONG*
francesco dʼorazio, metameets 09, 22/23 may, amsterdam
*freely inspired by “Everything you know about ARGs is wrong”, Dan Hon, Six To Start

linear predictions
organic reality

The market evolution
Virtual Worlds platforms and
registered accounts growth
Worlds positioned by the
average age of the users.
This series only shows the
10-30 sector
2008
2006
2004

Universe graph Q2 2008
Worlds positioned by the
average age of the users.

5 to 10 years old (Q1 2009)
Total reg accounts: 70m+
Worlds in development: 08
Key growth areas:
1)Toy Brands and Franchises
2) Spaces to play
3) Relationship building

10 to 15 years old (Q1 2009)
Total reg accounts: 230m+
Worlds in development: 07+
Key growth areas:
1) Avatar customization
2) Relationship building
3) Education

15 to 25 years old (Q1 2009)
Total reg accounts: 50m+
Worlds in development: 09+
Key growth areas:
1) Mirror Worlds
2) Live Events
3) Media Convergence
4) Vertical Worlds

25+ years old (Q1 2009)
Total reg accounts: 20m+
Worlds in development: 06+
Key growth areas:
1) Mirror Worlds / Retail
2) Existing Social Networks
3) Business usage

Projections
22 % of global broadband
users will register for one
or more virtual worlds
over the next 10 years.
-1 billion registrants
- 8 billion dollar services opportunity
eMarketer estimates that
by 2011 53% of total
Internet users ages 3-17
will visit a Virtual World at
least once per month

Forecasts
“80% of Active Internet Users Will Have A quot;Second Lifequot; in the
virtual world by the End of 2011”
(Gartner, April 2007)
”52% of internet users in most developed countries will use a 3D
avatar at least once a week by the end of 2016”
(Metaverse Roadmap, 2007)
“In the next 12 months 6-8 million Internet users will try virtual worlds
and weekly active users will grow by 2-3 million”
(Parks Associates, April 2008)
quot;By 2012, 70% of organizations will have established their own
private virtual worldsquot;
(Gartner, May 2008)

we’re not going to be able
to handle so many avatars

all very cool.
there is only one problem...

...it’s not
really
happening

we don’t have enough players
accounts doesn’t mean users
“virtual worlds” searches “second life” searches
visibility didn’t turn into engagement

the
people
who play
are
weird

...or, they’re
just not
really
mainstream

which doesn’t mean it’s not fun

only, we build stuff for the
hardcore

which makes it even more
expensive

and on top of that...
we don’t scale

WHY
IS
THAT
SO?

time to look into this
before it’s too late

it’s not real, I’m not bothering
something becomes real the moment
when two or more people share it
itʼs a matter of degrees on a continuum
virtual is as real as quot;realquot; can get as
long as itʼs shared.
the problem is that virtual worlds are
not shared enough, therefore they
are not that real

it’s just avatars,
not real people

to be completely honest,
Bevan was looking as
well
when an avatar speaks
[almost] nobody looks

you must be there
real-time
synchronous
communication limits
the engagement and
narrows the
adoption

but is that really true?

accessibility
sucks
Using virtual worlds
means running heavy
applications on
specific machines

[lack of] web integration
What happens inside stays inside

RT @doeko
what problem
are we
solving?

and then...
we crossed the streams

“the web will evolve
from pages to places”

while it is actually
going from pages to
streams

virtual worlds vs web:
real-time is making the
web immersive and a
virtual world itself
where do virtual
worlds and the 3d
web fit in this
scenario?

is the real-time web
cannibalizing virtual
worlds?
what more have virtual worlds
to offer? Gaming? SN? 3D? And
is this appealing enough

Interoperability
Capability of two or more worlds to exchange
data via a common set of exchange formats.
Provides portability of identities, avatars and assets.
• Acceptance of common standards
• Every world has to connect to every world
• Requires a strong collaboration from each publisher
• Perceived as a zero-sum game
• Who owns the standards?
• Appearance
• Inventory transfer and access
• Names
• IP issues
• Payments and currency
• Missing inter-world regulatory institutions

not happening
by standards
but by clusters

virtual
worlds are
a 30 years
old medium

they replicate the same 19th
century immersive model
of the panorama

immersion by
confinement
and containment

and how is
markerless AR
going to
challenge all this?
turning the
real world
into a
virtual world?

The number of virtual
worlds is increasing rapidly
•200+ worlds online and in development
•350m+ registered accounts
•We are where the Social Networking industry was in 2003-2005
but
•The technology is not mature
•The market is not mature
•The growth and life cycles of virtual worlds are very different

context content
driven driven
single multi
world world

losing
the
world
metaphor

multi cross
vs
world world
using multiple virtual
worlds for different engaging in
purposes, maintaining interactions that
multiple active unfold across two or
accounts in various more virtual worlds
worlds
happening now starting to happen
content creators,
explorers, socializers
(multi-avatar 15%,
avg 3, min2, max 16)

so what are the next
steps
• cross-world mentality
• web integration
• connecting worlds
• storytelling
• keeping it real: things and places

IPC GOES 3D
multi-title/cross-world
virtual goods campaign

Web integration
Now
Social networks integration
More virtual worlds / web mashups
More synchronous communication
tools into web pages
2D/3D integrations
More web-based virtual worlds
Virtual worlds/web integrations
Mobile access to virtual worlds
Virtual worlds / real world data blending
Future

Outeroperability
A central hub or destination for all avatars that
acts as the gateway between the virtual worlds.
Connects virtual worlds and the web and the worlds
between them using the web as a bridge. Worlds
need it to be visible, users need it to keep up easily
with their virtual lives.
• Worlds don’t need to speak to each other
• Light involvement of the virtual world publisher
• The integration is modular and based on standard
web technology
• It doesn’t support portability
• But it doesn’t involve the issues connected to it
• Allows the development of applications on top of
the virtual worlds

Outeroperability
‣Single sign-on
Mobile Client ‣Identity Management
‣Search
Apps ‣Worlds Browsing
The Web ‣Social Networking
‣Social Ranking
‣Recommendations
‣Mobile Apps
Gateway ‣Micro Payments
‣Gaming
World 7
World 1
World 6
World 2 World 3
World 5
World 4

What are we going to do with
connected worlds?
Structuring participation
is key to achieve
immersive engagement
“we do not merely 'suspend' a critical
faculty; we also exercise a creative faculty. We
do not suspend disbelief so much as we
actively create belief ” (sharon murray)

Immersive Storytelling
The user plays the role of the protagonist in a
dramatically rich environment
The user wanders around
a dramatic universe of possibilities which
lacks the sense of directed inevitability.
Storytelling is a need
and a huge opportunity
for virtual worlds

What’s the story here?
simple narrative
treasure hunts
casual gaming
paths
quests
RPG
ARG
complex narrative

The Cross-World
Gaming System AI
XWorld World 1
Gaming Engine
RL
Stand-alone
client Agents
Gateway World 2
The Web
World 3
Mobile
World 4

The Metaverse as an
Entertainment Platform
Market Diversification
Web Integration
Multi-world usage
XWorld
Immersive
Storytelling

thanks!
francesco.dorazio@gmail.com
www.makersofuniverses.com
@abc3d