Observations and climate model projections of Arctic climate change
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The document summarizes observations of Arctic climate change and projections from climate models. It finds that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global average due to a process known as polar amplification. Satellite data shows sea ice extent and thickness have sharply declined in recent decades. Climate models project further sea ice loss and amplified warming in the Arctic under high emissions scenarios. This could impact weather patterns in mid-latitudes through changes to jet streams and storm tracks. Improved observations and modeling are needed to reduce uncertainty about future impacts.
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Observations and climate model projections of Arctic climate change
- 1. Observations and climate model projections of Arctic climate change Zachary Labe University of California, Irvine 5 May 2020 Irvine Valley College @ZLabe
- 2. Zack Labe Pioneer Coal Mine Blue Whale of Catoosa Centralia Underground Fire Roadside America Greenland Sea (81°N) Linglestown, PA Cornell – Ithaca, New York 5th Year, PhD – EarthSS Study: Arctic – midlatitude climate variability Enjoy: roadside oddities and diners Hobbies: gardening, #scicomm, hiking, collecting/traveling to lighthouses Dream: study in isolated Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard
- 6. The Arctic.
- 10. Polar Amplification: acceleration of warming in high latitudes relative to the rest of the globe
- 22. WHY? Sea ice extent is dropping at a rate of nearly 0.8 million km2/decade Temperatures rising >2x as fast as the globally averaged mean
- 26. ARCTIC NORTHERN HEMISPHERE [Modified from SWIPA, 2017] [0°C] [14°C] [7°C] High Emissions Low Emissions Climate Model Projections Climate Model Projections
- 27. Sea Ice.
- 28. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
- 29. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
- 30. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
- 38. “The Bear spent its most illustrious years in the treacherous waters of the Arctic in the U.S. Revenue Cutter Service. Photo courtesy of the Alaska and Polar Regions Collections, Elmer E. Rasmuson Library, University of Alaska Fairbanks.” https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/climate-change-ice-shiplogs/
- 43. Climate model projection of summer sea ice through 2100
- 44. Modeling vs. Field Work
- 45. Ny-Ålesund
- 46. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017
- 47. “Cryo-copter”
- 51. Ny-Ålesund
- 52. stuck in the sea ice…
- 55. sea ice brine channels
- 56. sea ice brine channels
- 57. snow pits
- 58. snow pits
- 59. Algae
- 60. isbjørn
- 61. isbjørn guard
- 63. Longyearbyen
- 64. polarized sea ice core
- 67. Thinning Ice.
- 68. Changing Sea Ice Thickness MELIA ET AL., 2016 “Sea ice Decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes” PIZZOLATO ET AL., 2016 “The influence of declining sea ice on shipping activity in the Canadian Arctic” POST ET AL., 2013 “Ecological consequences of sea-ice decline” LANG ET AL., 2016 “Sea ice thickness and recent Arctic warming”
- 77. Polar amplification in early climate models
- 78. [Newson, 1973; Nature] “…great warming of the lower layers of the troposphere over the Arctic basin... In fact, there is a lowering of mid-latitude continental temperatures near the surface”
- 80. WHY? How does Arctic amplification influence extreme weather events? Has it? Will it? Can it? Necessary to understand mechanisms of Arctic climate variability before assessing future local/remote responses Barnes and Screen [2015]
- 81. Future Arctic How does sea-ice thickness decline influence the large- scale atmospheric response? Significant thermodynamic response over Arctic Ocean Poleward weakening of jet LABE ET AL. 2018, GRL
- 82. Future Arctic Significant thermodynamic response over Arctic Ocean Poleward weakening of jet LABE ET AL. 2018, GRL How does sea-ice thickness decline influence the large- scale atmospheric response?
- 83. Reduced temperature gradient between the equator and the Arctic What other climate feedbacks may influence the jet stream? LABE ET AL. 2018, GRL
- 84. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss [adapted from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences] Polar Vortex
- 85. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss [adapted from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences] Polar Vortex
- 86. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss [adapted from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences] Polar Vortex
- 87. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss [adapted from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences] Polar Vortex
- 88. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss [adapted from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences] Polar Vortex
- 89. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss [adapted from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences] Polar Vortex
- 91. Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) - alternating easterly and westerly winds in the tropical middle atmosphere Labe, Z., Peings, Y., & Magnusdottir, G. (2019). The Effect of QBO Phase on the Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Early Winter. Geophysical Research Letters Northern Hemisphere polar vortex weakens due to Arctic sea ice loss during easterly QBO (QBO-E) winters Weaker polar vortex results in more frequent and intense cold outbreaks in Eurasia Easterly Westerly QBO AFFECTS ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO ARCTIC SEA-ICE DECLINE
- 92. Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) - alternating easterly and westerly winds in the tropical middle atmosphere Labe, Z., Peings, Y., & Magnusdottir, G. (2019). The Effect of QBO Phase on the Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Early Winter. Geophysical Research Letters Northern Hemisphere polar vortex weakens due to Arctic sea ice loss during easterly QBO (QBO-E) winters Weaker polar vortex results in more frequent and intense cold outbreaks in Eurasia Easterly Westerly QBO AFFECTS ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO ARCTIC SEA-ICE DECLINE
- 93. Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) - alternating easterly and westerly winds in the tropical middle atmosphere Labe, Z., Peings, Y., & Magnusdottir, G. (2019). The Effect of QBO Phase on the Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Early Winter. Geophysical Research Letters Northern Hemisphere polar vortex weakens due to Arctic sea ice loss during easterly QBO (QBO-E) winters Weaker polar vortex results in more frequent and intense cold outbreaks in Eurasia Easterly Westerly QBO AFFECTS ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO ARCTIC SEA-ICE DECLINE
- 94. Arctic45°N Arctic45°N Arctic45°N Surface Troposphere Arctic amplification LABE ET AL. 2020, submitted
- 95. Arctic45°N Arctic45°N Arctic45°N Surface Troposphere Sea ice loss LABE ET AL. 2020, submitted
- 96. Arctic45°N Arctic45°N Arctic45°N LABE ET AL. 2020, submitted
- 97. LENS (RCP 8.5) Mean December - Relative to 1981-2010 Climatology
- 98. ARCTIC NORTHERN HEMISPHERE [Modified from SWIPA, 2017] [0°C] [14°C] [7°C] High Emissions Low Emissions Climate Model Projections Climate Model Projections
- 99. Crystal Polar Cruise, Aug. 2016 Is this effective communication?
- 100. Crystal Serenity Polar Cruise, Aug. 2016
- 102. Crystal Polar Cruise, Aug. 2016 We need scientists. We need educators. We need innovators. We need communicators.
- 103. Graduate School
- 104. The Department of Earth System Science at the University of California, Irvine
- 105. The Department of Earth System Science at the University of California, We study how the atmosphere, land and oceans interact as a system and how the Earth will change over a human lifetime We focus on key areas of climate science including biogeochemistry of oceans and atmospheres, climate dynamics, atmospheric science, cryosphere, the global water cycle, and human systems
- 106. Undergraduate • We offer two interdisciplinary undergraduate degrees: (B.S.) Bachelor of Science in Earth System Science and (B.A.) Bachelor of Arts in Environmental Science. • Coursework covers the science of the Earth as a system, the causes of current environmental problems and pathways toward global sustainability. • Students are encouraged to conduct research and field work and participate in the UCI Education Abroad Program. • Graduates go on to graduate school or begin careers as research scientists, policy advisors, data analysts, environmental consultants or technical writers. Graduate • The UC Irvine Ph.D. in Earth System Science program is ranked among the top doctoral programs in the country by the National Research Council. • Coursework includes a multidisciplinary curriculum covering physical, chemical and biological aspects of Earth system science. • Our graduate students travel around the world to conduct research in mountains, forests, oceans, caves, glaciers, laboratories and climate simulation centers. • Graduates go on to become post- doctoral scholars, faculty and leading Earth science researchers
- 107. Zachary Labe zlabe@uci.edu @ZLabe Polar amplification signal has already emerged in the Arctic Improvements to observations and models will reduce uncertainty in future climate projections