Slideshow presentation for Flood Mitigation Symposium, October 4, 2013. Scott Edelman - Senior Vice President, AECOM Water Resources and past president of the Association of State Flood Plain Managers (ASFPM) Foundation

1. 1
Post June 2013 flood considerations

2. AECOM Background

3. 3
AECOM is a global provider of professional technical and management support services to a broad range
of markets, including transportation, facilities, environmental and energy. AECOM is a leader in all of the
key markets that it serves.
125Serving 125 countries
45K45,000 dedicated
professionals working
globally
$7+bnUS$7.3 billion of revenue
during the 12 months ended
March 31, 2011
No.1Top 500 Design Firm
353Ranked No.353 in
Fortune 500
AECOM
Disaster – The Way Forward
Introducing AECOM Page 3

4. Overview

5. 6
With advance information, costly mistakes can be
avoided, destruction averted, and the way to lasting
victory made clear.
Sun Tzu:

6. 7
• Population growth
• Climate change
Why are natural disasters striking with greater
impact and more frequently in every corner of the
world?

7. 8
Alberta is projected to grow from 4
to 6 million people by 2041

8. 9
FEMA / AECOM
National Climate Change Report
Example Change: Q100
Released
by Whitehouse
June 2013
Significant Technical Findings:
• By Year 2100 riverine floodplains will double in size,
• Coastal areas will double in size
Significant Financial Findings In today‟s dollars:
• Average loss cost per policy will increase by approximately 90%
• Individual premiums will increase 10% to 40%

9. 10
IDENTIFY the risk
ASSESS the risk
COMMUNICATE the risk
MITIGATE the risk
Changing how we fundamentally deal with
risk related to disasters

10. 11
Risk identification and assessment
provides basis of decisions

11. 12
Risk communication needs to be
relevant

12. 13
Risk mitigation to change in
behavior

13. 14
Proactive Planning
• Estimated cost $1
Reactive Emergency
Response
• Estimated cost $5-7
COST: What is the bottom line?

14. 15
The ill-logical hydrologic cycle
Flood
Panic
Plan
Delay
Funding is the
typical reason why
action is not
taken.
Funding needs to
take advantage of
political good will

15. 16
“Oh don’t worry, we have a plan…”

16. 17
What level
of
protection
(critical
facilities)
Should it
include
future
conditions
Should
freeboard
be
expanded
Should set-
backs /
floodway
be
established
How should re-building take place?
17

17. Clarifying Confusing Standards for Public

18. 19
We have confused the public with
different definitions
Bridge Standard
AN ABSOLUTE
Flood Plain Elevation
AN AVERAGE

19. 20
All structures
operate
correctly and will
not fail
Structures will
not be
obstructed with
debris
Only existing
conditions are
considered
Degree of
uncertainty of
the science
We need to inform the public on the
underlying assumptions

20. 21
Assumption: Structures will operate
properly and will not fail

21. 22
Assumption: Structures will not be
blocked with debris

22. 23
Assumption: Only existing
conditions are reflected on the maps

23. 24
Assumption: The average flood
will occur
Regression Estimate
Upper & Lower
Prediction Limits
Water Surface
Average 1% Flood

24. 25
Statistics are used to predict the
future

25. 26
Statistics use confidence limits to
show range of likely results

26. 27
People generally do not associate
mud and debris with flooding

27. 28
How effective are we today in
communicating flood?

28. 29
Can products be improved to help guide
behavior?

29. Path for success

30. 31
Planning a path forward
Top Success Factors
Source: PwC Mori Survey 1997
% of Companies Responding
Ensuring top sponsorship 82%
Treating people fairly 82%
Involving employees 75%
Giving quality communications 70%
Providing sufficient training 68%
Using clear performance
measures
65%
Building teams after change 62%
Focusing on culture/skill changes 62%
Rewarding success 60%
Using internal champions 60%
Reasons for Failure
Source: 1995 Harvard Business Review
One Way Communications
Under communicating the vision by a
factor of 10
Lack of Commitment Among Workforce
Not removing obstacles to achieve the
new vision
Poor Change Management
Not planning for change response from
stake holders and not communicating
benefits to them
Small Scale Success
Declaring Victory too soon and stopping
Culture Resistance or Rejections
Not anchoring change in the organization
culture

31. 32
Simultaneously working on three
fronts to drive business benefit

32. 33
Resist Reinforce Restrict Retreat
Protect with
gates, levees
and hard
structures
Protect what
we must
Upgrade
building codes/
ordinances
Where it’s too
difficult or
impossible to
protect
Investigate + Study
Likely Scenarios

33. 34
The Road Map to Recovery
• Define the Need / Create
the Vision
• Assess the Extent of
Damage and Scoping the
Works
• Reviewi the Options and
assertain the priorities
• Accelerate the „Early Wins‟
• Develop the Infrastructure
Response Plan
• Agree the Strategy for
Recovery
• Create the Infrastructure
Master Plan
• Develop the Master
Schedule and Budget
• Set up the Management
Controls and Reporting
Structure
• Establish the Key
Performance Indicators /
Deliverables
• Mobilise the Program Team
• Develop the Master
Infrastructure Recovery
Plan
• Produce the Execution
Strategy and
Implementation Plan
• Procure the Design
Consultants
• Accelerate the Enabling
Works Packages
• Monitor and Control the
Program
• Launch the „Investor
Confidence Initiative‟
• Communicate the „Good
News‟ stories globally
• Produce the Procurement
Strategy for Implementation
• Appoint the Program
Management Consultant for
Delivery
• Launch the Recovery
Program
Stage 1 – (30-120 Days) Stage 2 – (60 -180 Days) Stage 3 – (60+ Days)
STRATEGIC PLANNING PHASE
RESPOND RECOVER– Short Term RECOVER – Long Term
Page 34

34. Mitigation planning

35. 36
Property Protection
• Acquisition
• Relocation
• Building elevation
• Critical facilities
protection
• Structural Retrofitting
• Safe rooms, shutters,
shatter-resistant glass
• Insurance

36. 37
Natural Resource Protection
• Floodplain protection
• Watershed management
• Riparian buffers
• Forest and vegetative
management
• Erosion and sediment
control
• Wetland preservation and
restoration
• Habitat preservation
• Coastal management

37. 38
Structural / Engineered Projects
• Reservoirs
• Dams, levees, dikes
• Seawalls, revetments,
gabions
• Flood / tide gates,
hurricane barriers
• Stormwater diversions,
detention/retention
basins, channel
modification
• Reservoirs
• Beach nourishment, dune
restoration
• Slope stabilization

38. 39
Correcting Mistakes of the Past

39. 40
• Risk Communication (i.e.
hazard map information)
• Outreach projects
• Speaker series/
demonstration events
• Real estate disclosure
• Library materials
• School children
educational programs
• Hazard expositions
• Technical assistance
Public Education & Awareness

40. 41
Emergency Services
• Warning systems
• Emergency response
equipment
• Shelter operations
• Evacuation planning and
management
• Emergency response
training and exercises
• Sandbagging for flood
protection
• Installing temporary
shutters

41. 42
What makes a good mitigation plan?
• Process vs. Product
– “Plans are worthless. Planning is essential.”
–Dwight D. Eisenhower
• Holistic mitigation strategy
– Includes projects + policies + programs + recurring activities
• Specific, practical and measurable actions
– Linked to sound assessments of risk and capability
• Straightforward implementation mechanisms
– Routine monitoring, evaluating and updating
– Integration with other community processes/initiatives
– Effectively applied following disaster events

42. 43
Planning Process

43. 44
• Involve the public – not as easy as it sounds!
• Develop strategy for multiple methods of engagement
– Meetings / Open Houses
– Public Opinion Surveys – hard copy and web-deployed
– Combine efforts with other public outreach initiatives
– Be creative in getting the word out
Planning Process

44. 45
Continuous outreach and public relations yields
actions at the community
NEW
FLOOD MAPS

45. 46
Planning Process

46. 47
Planning Process

47. 48
• Involve local media
– Press releases, interviews, etc.
• Establish more formal roles for those
interested in participating in the process
– Citizen Advisory Committee
– Stakeholder Interest Groups
Planning Process

48. 49
• Relies heavily on historical data,
GIS technology, and probabilistic
risk modeling
• Better local data = better risk
assessments
• Better risk assessments do not
necessarily lead to higher quality
mitigation plans
– Have often been the most
overemphasized phase of the
planning process
Risk Assessment

49. 50
HAZUS quantifies the disaster
Short
Term
Shelter
Substantial
Damage
Essential
Facility Loss
of Use
Debris
Generated
Truckloads
Required to
Remove
Economic
Loss
Ottawa 2,695 104 0 46,514 1,861 180.0M
Rogers 5,194 310 0 64,385 2,575 256.2M
Muskogee 2,023 69 4 26,456 1,058 111.8M
Pittsburg 825 113 0 30,235 1,209 117.6M
Carter 949 23 0 14.939 597 71.5M
Logan 857 79 2 21,461 858 102.2M

50. 51
Predicting the risk of flood in
financial terms

51. 52
HAZUS: Based on best data

52. 53
Risk Assessment: Assessing Vulnerability

53. 54
Risk Assessment: Assessing Vulnerability
Estimated Potential Losses to Flood Hazards
Return
Interval
Capital Stock Losses Business Interruption Losses
Total LossTotal
Building
Damage
Total
Contents
Damage
Inventory
Loss
Relocation
Loss
Capital
Related
Loss
Wage
Losses
Rental
Income
Loss
10-Year $35,002,000 $44,332,000 $1,969,000 $226,000 $228,000 $1,148,000 $65,000 $82,970,000
50-Year $47,887,000 $60,430,000 $2,430,000 $316,000 $321,000 $1,255,000 $100,000 $112,739,000
100-Year $56,112,000 $73,797,000 $3,309,000 $390,000 $542,000 $1,501,000 $147,000 $135,798,000
500-Year $66,630,000 $88,974,000 $3,956,000 $445,000 $606,000 $1,861,000 $174,000 $162,646,000
Additional Impacts Caused by Flood Hazards
Return Interval
Debris Generated
(tons)
Displaced
Households
Temporary
Shelter Needs
10-Year 10,821 2,407 5,124
50-Year 14,446 3,066 6,860
100-Year 15,368 3,164 7,194
500-Year 17,539 3,534 8,200

54. 55
Risk Assessment: Assessing Vulnerability

55. 56
Risk Assessment: Summary Conclusions
Table 6.21
Summary of Results
Hazard
Category/Degree of Risk
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time Duration PRI Score
Atmospheric Hazards
Extreme Temperatures Highly Likely Minor Small More than 24 hours Less than one week 2.3
Extreme Wind Highly Likely Critical Large More than 24 hours Less than 24 hours 3.2
Hurricane & Tropical Storm Likely Catastrophic Large More than 24 hours Less than 24 hours 3.2
Lightning Highly Likely Minor Negligible Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours 2.2
Nor’easter Highly Likely Catastrophic Large More than 24 hours Less than one week 3.6
Tornado Likely Limited Small Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours 2.4
Winter Storm Highly Likely Limited Large More than 24 hours Less than one week 3.0
Hydrologic Hazards
Coastal Erosion Highly Likely Limited Moderate More than 24 hours More than one week 2.9
Dam Failure Unlikely Critical Small Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours 2.1
Drought Possible Limited Moderate More than 24 hours More than one week 2.3
Flood Highly Likely Critical Moderate 6 to 12 hours More than one week 3.4
Storm Surge Possible Critical Moderate More than 24 hours Less than 24 hours 2.4
Wave Action Highly Likely Limited Moderate More than 24 hours More than one week 2.9
Geologic Hazards
Earthquake Unlikely Minor Small Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours 1.5
Landslide Likely Critical Small Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours 2.7
Other Natural Hazards
Wildfire Highly Likely Minor Moderate Less than 6 hours Less than one week 2.8

56. 57
Risk Assessment: Summary Conclusions

57. 58
Risk Assessment: Summary Conclusions
Table 5.22
Conclusions on Hazard Risk
HIGH RISK
Nor’easter
Flood
ExtremeWind
Hurricaneand TropicalStorm
WinterStorm
MODERATE RISK
CoastalErosion
WaveAction
Wildfire
Landslide
StormSurge
Tornado
LOW RISK
Drought
ExtremeTemperatures
Lightning
DamFailure
Earthquake

58. 59
Mitigation Strategy: Mitigation Action Plan
Action
Category
Hazard
Objective(s) Addressed
Priority
Funding Sources
Responsibility
Completion Date
Background

59. 60
Mitigation Strategy: Mitigation Action Plan
• Actions should:
– be realistically achievable;
– be measureable (include
performance-based outcomes);
– be tied to specific assignments of
responsibility;
– include a mix of mitigation
techniques:
• Prevention
• Property Protection
• Natural Resource Protection
• Structural Projects
• Public Education & Awareness

60. 61
Assign and enforce responsibility/accountability

61. Transparent and uniform method
of comparing projects

62. 63
• Uniform Cost Estimate
– Pre-construction costs
– Construction costs
– Ancillary costs (permits, A&E fees …)
– Annual maintenance costs
– Time value of money
• Benefits
– Avoided damages and losses
– Avoided causalities
– Avoided emergency management
costs
Transparent uniform method
to rank projects

63. Transparency in Decisions
Triple Bottom Line Tool

64. 65
The Triple Bottom Line (TBL)

65. 66
Financial (LCA)
Capital Costs
Operations
and Other* Costs
Environmental
Climate
Habitat
Water Use
Water Quality
Air Quality
Natural Resource Inputs
Social
System Resilience
Ratepayer Affordability
Bicycle and Pedestrian
Environment
Odor
Noise
Recreation / Open Space
Employment
Cultural Resources
Construction Impacts
TBL Evaluation Criteria
* Includes Operations & Maintenance, Replacement & Renewal, Decommissioning, and Avoided Costs

66. 67
Operations and
maintenance
Replacement and
renewal
Decommissioning
Sale of bio-fuel
energy
Avoided water
treatment
Avoided combined
sewer discharge
Design and
planning
Capital equipment
Installation and
construction
Operating
cost
Avoided cost
Capital
cost
LCA Components

67. 68
TBL Model
Summary Sheet
Doesn‟t produce a recommendation or overall score

68. 69
TBL Model Components
Project Alternatives Comparison

69. Project Management

70. 71
Program management lowers risk
Leadership Skills
Capacity
Latest
Enabling
Technology
Schedule
Quality
Cost

71. 72
PM plan key processes developed
real program experience
 Financial Management
 Schedule Management
 Requirements Management
 Deliverable Management
 Data Management
 Communications Management
 Change Management
 Risk Management
 Action Item Management
 Subcontract Management
 Quality Management

72. 73
• Risks – Adequate reporting and Timely information to client
PMI Life Cycle Processes
Monitoring & Controlling Tracks
73
Key
performance
metrics
Balanced
scorecard
Shared
metrics
Earned value
management
EVM portal

73. 74
Plan
Do
Check
Act
The QMP Defines the Levels of QA/QC
 Checklists
 Peer Reviews
 Independent Reviews
 Senior Technical
Reviews
 QASP

74. 75
Plan
Do
Check
Act
The QMP Provides a Means for Learning and
Improving
 Lessons Learned
 Process Improvement
 Project Closeout
Lessons Learned Library
identifies opportunities for
Process Improvement

75. Flood simulation can teach actions

76. 77
• Serious computer game and simulator
– Developed by PlayGen, Ltd. under direction from ASFPM Foundation
– PlayGen, Ltd developed “FloodSim” game for public awareness in the
UK
• Purpose:
– Simulation & learning environment for decision-makers
– Teach disaster-resilient & NAI principles for community development
– Show community health and smart floodplain management link
• Sponsorship opportunities available
“FloodManager” Interactive
Professional Game

77. 78
Initial Town Layout

78. 79
Build Menu

79. 80
Storm Animation

80. 81
News Flash

81. 82
End of Year Summary

82. Preparing for the next flood disaster

83. 84
Winnipeg Digital Flood Manual
• Allows effective management for flooding
• Easy transition plan as staff retire

84. 85
Simulated flood scenarios
• View the Flood Procedure Database component
• Select desired flood scenario
• Specify query criteria
• Display query results with resource quantities in
tabular or map display

85. 86
All flood defense activities tracked
• Print task lists for field
crews
• Enter activity activation
/ deactivation data

86. 87
All documentation digital

87. Flood Warning

88. 89
Simple
Complicated Complex
Forecasting
Mapping
Difficulty of flood prediction

89. 90
Stage 1: Planning Stage 2: Design & Implementation Stage 3: Operations
Proposed Implementation Process
Determine Needs & Capabilities Develop Systems & Procedures Effective & Sustainable Operations
Flood Warning System
Page 90
• Identify Areas to Receive
Flood Warning Protection
• Identify Flood Hazards in
the Defined Areas
• Research Historical Floods
(known hazards)
• Prepare Engineering Models to
Simulate Flood Scenarios
(potentially unknown hazards)
• Identify Populations and
Infrastructure at Risk in the
Flood Hazard Areas
• Assess Response
Capabilities
• Identify Organizations which
Participate in Flood Response
in the Defined Areas
• Estimate Response Capabilities
and Timelines
• Identify Responsible Agency
• Develop a Funding Plan
• Meteorological Forecasting
• Local Agency and/or 3rd Party
• Precipitation Monitoring
• Satellite, Radar and Gauges
• Discharge Monitoring
• Gauges on Dams and Streams
• Data Collection
• Need Reliable Communications
• Flood Forecasting
• Engineering Models with Flood
Mapping (static or dynamic)
• Develop Response Plans
• Flood Emergency Action Plan
• Internal Communications Plan
• Operations & Maintenance Plan
• Public Education Plan
• Public Communications Plan
• System Implementation
Ongoing Activities:
• Operator Training
• Public Education
• Daily Operations
• Staff Operations Schedule
• Maintenance Schedule
• Monitor Meteorological
Forecasts (long & short range)
• Monitor Flood Forecast Models
• Follow EAP Guidance for Flood
Operation Triggers
• Flood Operations
• Mobilize, Monitor & Forecast
• EAP Response Guidance for
Warnings & Evacuations
• Update Forecasts
• After-action Debriefs
• Revise Plans as Appropriate

90. Potential next steps

91. 92
92
• Flood recovery data
• Policy development
• Mitigation planning
• Mitigation implementation
• Knowledge sharing
Major steps forward

92. 93
Many citizens look for leadership from the
government

93. 94
Policies established today will establish future
resiliency of the Province
Risk communication to the public is essential for
proper individual actions
Transparency on projects is crucial for public
support
Monitor, Measure, Report, Repeat
Summary