1. Photo by pxfuel.com
Thursday 9 December
What does the Glasgow
Climate Pact mean for
the fight against the
climate crisis?
WEBINAR
Photo by Alan Harvey / UK Government / Flickr

2. WHAT DOES THE GLASGOW CLIMATE PACT MEAN
FOR THE FIGHT AGAINST THE CLIMATE CRISIS?
SPEAKERS
JAMES ROAF
Technical Assistance
Advisor, IMF
@Simon_Black
SIMON BLACK
Assistant Director,
Fiscal Affairs, IMF
Vice President, Climate
and Economics, WRI
@HMountford4
HELEN MOUNTFORD
TARYN FRANSEN
Senior Fellow,
Climate Program, WRI
@tarynfransen
LORENA GONZALEZ
NAVROZ K DUBASH
Senior Associate,
Finance, WRI
@lorsgonzalez
Professor,
Centre for Policy Research
@NavrozDubash
@WorldResources @IMFNews

3. IMF | Fiscal Affairs 3
COP26: Some
Successes,
But Still Not Yet on
Track to Net-Zero
IMF-WRI Joint Event, December 9, 2021
Simon Black
Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF

4. IMF | Fiscal Affairs 4
Global Mitigation Ambition Gap Remains
§ Pathways for 2-1.5oC →
cut 2030 CO2
► 25-50% below 2019 or
30-60% below 2030 BAU
§ Current pledges → cut 2030
CO2
only 60% of reductions in
2030
for 2oC
Global CO2 Emissions,
NDCs, Pathways for Temperature Goals

5. IMF | Fiscal Affairs 5
Pledged Changes in 2030 GHG Emissions
(Absolute and vs. Business-As-Usual)

6. IMF | Fiscal Affairs 6
Closing the Ambition Gap, 2030
§ AE/EMHI/EMLI allocations
► 2oC: 45/30/15, 55/25/15
or 65/20/10
► 1.5oC: 70/55/35 or
80/50/30
► Costs equitable (higher in
developed countries) but
manageable under both
scenarios
§ With no increase in EME
ambition, 2oC requires AE
ambition of 95% cuts

7. IMF | Fiscal Affairs 7
Conclusion
§ COP26 was neither a success nor a failure
► Midcentury ‘net-zero emissions’ commitments
and sectoral side agreements (methane,
‘breakthrough technologies’) important
► On 2030 ambition, ~1/3 Parties raised targets
substantively, mostly AEs
§ Getting on track to net zero requires raising
climate ambition further
► Dangerous cliff-edge for emissions post-2030
► Achieving 1.5C in an equitable way is possible
www.imf.org/climate

8. IMF | Fiscal Affairs 8
Thank you.
sblack@imf.org

9. IMF | Fiscal Affairs 9
NET-ZERO TARGETS
Climate Watch (2021)

10. IMF | Fiscal Affairs 10
TEMPERATURE ESTIMATES BY POLICY
SCENARIO

11. IMF | Fiscal Affairs 11
PATHWAYS TO NET ZERO
UNEP Emissions Gap Report (2021)

12. IMF | Fiscal Affairs 12
NEW AND UPDATED NDCS
Climate Watch (2021)

13. Photo by pxfuel.com
Thank you
Photo by Alan Harvey / UK Government / Flickr
@WorldResources @IMFNews
For a recording of this event, please visit:
https://www.wri.org/events/2021/12/glasgow-climate-pact-
fight-against-climate-crisis