Global trends and emerging issues to watch related to climate, energy, economic development, sustainable diets, and transport. Learn more at http://wri.org/stw17

2. Photo: Michael Fleshman/Flickr
FEATURING
Andrew Steer
President & CEO
January 11, 2017

3. Strange Times
Photo: Flickr/Ted Eytan

4. Greatest Political Uncertainty Since 1989
Photo: Wikimedia Commons

5. A Globalization Backlash
Photo: Ben White/ CAFOD, October 2015

6. People Feeling Left Out of Economic Opportunity
Photo: Flickr/Joseph

7. Devaluation of Facts
49% of Republicans
believe #PizzaGate is real
Photo: Wikimedia Commons

9. A NEW ADMINISTRATION:
How Far Will Trump Go?
STORY 1
Photo: Flickr/Matt Johnson

10. WHERE DOES HE STAND?
Photo: Flickr/Jennifer Woodard Maderazo
SEPTEMBER 2015:
“I don’t believe in climate
change.”
DECEMBER 2009:
“We support your effort to
ensure meaningful and
effective measures to control
climate change.”
—Letter to Pres. Obama,
signed by Donald Trump NOVEMBER 2016:
“I have an open mind to it.”

11. TRUMP’S FOSSIL FUEL CABINET
Photo: Flickr/Gage Skidmore, William Muno
EPA: Scott Pruitt DOE: Rick Perry STATE: Rex Tillerson DOI: Ryan Zinke

12. AMERICANS WANT CLIMATE ACTION
66%
of registered voters
say U.S. should reduce
GHG emissions
Photo: Flickr/Nick v
55%
of Trump voters
support climate
policies

13. WHAT TO WATCH:
Photo: Flickr/Paul A.Fagan
• Ozone and Methane Emissions Standards
• Renewable Fuel Standard Program
• Energy Efficiency Standards
• Waters of the United States Rule
Environmental Protection Under Attack?

14. WHAT TO WATCH:
Undoing the Clean Power Plan?
Photo: Flickr/ Ted Eytan
DC Circuit Ruling
Early 2017
Supreme Court?
Defund?
Rescind and Replace?

15. WHAT TO WATCH:
Photo: Flickr/U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
American Energy &
Infrastructure Act,
first 200 days?
Infrastructure: Gray or Green?

16. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will He Gut U.S. Climate Policies?
Source: “Delivering on the U.S. Climate Commitment: A 10-Point Plan Toward a Low-Carbon Future.”

17. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will He Gut U.S. Climate Policies?
Source: “Delivering on the U.S. Climate Commitment: A 10-Point Plan Toward a Low-Carbon Future.”

18. WHAT TO WATCH:
…and Will He Abandon the Paris Agreement?
Photo: COP Paris
• Syria
• Nicaragua
• Uzbekistan

19. WHAT TO WATCH:
How Will Congress Respond?
Photo: Flickr/Thomas Hawk
52REPUBLICANS
46+2DEMOCRATS + INDEPENDENTS

20. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will More States and Cities Step Up?
Photo: Flickr/Gage Skidmore
15 States &
51 Cities
Have Called for
Climate Action

21. WHAT TO WATCH:
Taking It to the Streets?
Photo: Flickr/Stephen Melkisethian

22. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will Environmentalists Prevail in the Courts?
Photo: Flickr/wp paarz
27-11
in Bush Era

23. WHAT TO WATCH:
Crossing the Line?
Gutting the OCE is “the dumbest
fricking thing I’ve ever heard ....”
—Sen. Lindsey Graham,
Fox News, Jan. 3, 2017

24. How Far Will Trump Go?
STORY 1
Photo: Flickr/Matt Johnson

25. GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS:
A Fossil Fuel Renaissance or Renewable Energy Surge?
STORY 2
Photo: USFWS/Joshua Winchell

26. RESURGENCE OF COAL?
Photo: Flickr/Wojtek Mszyca

27. Source: US EIA
U.S. COAL INDUSTRY IS DECLINING

28. WIND & SOLAR POWER ARE NOW COST-COMPETITIVE
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

29. • Wind turbine
technician is fastest
growing U.S. job
• 769,000 U.S. jobs in
renewable energy
Photo: Dennis Schroeder/DOE
CLEAN ENERGY: JOB CREATOR

30. • 71 Fortune 100 companies
have renewable goals
• 22 Fortune 500 companies are
committed to 100% renewables
Photo: Flickr/Walmart
U.S. COMPANIES DEMAND MORE RENEWABLE ENERGY

31. U.S. UTILITIES AREN’T TURNING BACK
• 450 Mw of new
solar, equivalent
to taking 118,000
vehicles off the
road each year
• 500 Mw in
the works
Source: http://buyersprinciples.org/corporate-re-strategy-map/

32. $266 Billion
Investment in renewable
energy capacity was double
coal & gas last year
Photo: Google Earth
AND AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL...

33. 2015:
• South Africa increased 329% ($4.5 billion)
• Chile increased 151% ($3.4 billion)
• India increased 22% ($10.2 billion)
Photo: Flickr/Brookhaven National Lab
EMERGING MARKETS LEADING IN
CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENTS

34. CHINA: #1 IN RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT
Source: IEA

35. 1/3 of new capacity
planned is coal
80% of which is in a
few rapidly developing
Asian economies
Photo: Flickr/blake.thornberry
BUT, COAL REMAINS IN THE GLOBAL PIPELINE

36. WHAT TO WATCH:
Photo: Flickr/Stuart Rankin
4:1 failure-to-completion rate
of planned coal plants in
Europe, South Asia, Latin
America and Africa
Will Coal Plants Thrive or Fail?

37. WHAT TO WATCH:
Source: US EIA
Will U.S. Coal Exports Rebound?

38. WHAT TO WATCH:
Photo: Flickr/hsbfrank
• Tax credits
• R&D funding
Will U.S. Support for Renewables Remain?

39. WHAT TO WATCH:
Photo: Flickr/Julian Schüngel
Will Financial Capital Shift Toward Clean Energy?
July 2017
G20 Summit

40. A Fossil Fuel Renaissance or Renewable Energy Surge?
STORY 2
Photo: USFWS/Joshua Winchell

41. INTERNATIONAL ACTION:
Will Momentum on Climate Continue?
STORY 3
Photo: Falcon Photography/Flickr

42. Source: CAIT/WRI
123
countries
PARIS AGREEMENT RAPIDLY ENTERS INTO FORCE
19 countries
joined since
U.S. election

43. ECONOMIC GROWTH & EMISSIONS
ARE DECOUPLING
Source: WRI
30
countries

44. LAUNCH OF NDC PARTNERSHIP
8
institutions
38
countries

45. TURNING COMMITMENTS INTO ACTION
Source: http://www.wri.org/publication/achieving-mexicos-goals

46. NOVEMBER 2016: INDIA OPENS WORLD’S
LARGEST SOLAR PLANT
Photo: Wikimedia Commons/Vinaykumar8687
648
Megawatts
Enough to power
150,000
homes

47. $360 billion
investment in
renewables by 2020
JANUARY 2017: CHINA ANNOUNCES
RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT
Photo: Flickr/Martijn van Gameren
13 million
jobs by 2020

48. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will We See Implementation Accelerate?
21 Countries
have committed to restore
63 million hectares of
degraded land by 2030
Source: AFR100

49. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will India Hit Its Solar Targets?
Sources: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF); The Economic Times.

50. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will China’s National Carbon Market Take Off?
13%
of global GHG
emissions covered by
carbon pricing

51. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will China’s National Carbon Market Take Off?
25%
of global GHG
emissions covered by
carbon pricing

52. WHAT TO WATCH:
More Climate Refugees?
Photo: Flickr/UN Photo/Tobin Jones
26.4 million
people displaced by disasters
per year since 2008
Equivalent to
one person
per second

53. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will UN SG Prioritize Climate?
Photo: Flickr/ OEA-OAS

54. WHAT TO WATCH:
Who Will Step Up?
Photo: Flickr/Kevin Gill

55. WHAT TO WATCH:
European Elections?
Photo: Flickr/Indigo Skies Photography
Netherlands: March 15 (National Election)
France: April 23 (Presidential)
Germany: August-October (Federal Election)
Italy: New Prime Minister must be confirmed

56. Will Momentum on Climate Continue?
STORY 3
Photo: Falcon Photography/Flickr

57. TOMORROW’S MARKETS:
Will Businesses & Investors Accelerate Momentum
Toward Sustainability?
STORY 4
Photo: Wikimedia Commons

58. CORPORATE COMMITMENTS ARE GROWING
579
Deforestation-
free supply
chains
84
100%
Renewable
Energy
205
Science-
based
Targets

59. SOME COMPANIES ARE STARTING TO
TRANSFORM THEIR BUSINESS MODELS
From coal mining
to life-sciences
company
Recognizes
“peak stuff” &
finite resources
Future is not
just selling
more cars

60. MAJOR INSTITUTIONAL ASSET OWNERS ARE
HUNGRY FOR SUSTAINABLE CAPITAL
Multiple studies confirm ESG
factors can lead to higher
returns and are “neutral”
Photo: Public Domain

61. Recommendations of
Task Force on
Climate-related
Financial Disclosures
Photo: Flickr/Bank of England
PRESSURE ON MARKETS IS BEGINNING

62. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will Sustainable Investments Keep Up the Pace?
Source: GSIA 2015
61% increase in
professionally
managed assets
held in ESG
screened
investments

63. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will 100 More Companies Sign Up to
Science-based Targets?
Will they go
further to include
land and water?

64. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will Demand Be Transmitted to Corporate Board Rooms?

65. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will Demand Be Transmitted to Corporate Board Rooms?

66. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will Demand Be Transmitted to Corporate Board Rooms?

67. WHAT TO WATCH:
Davos 2017: Business Commission on
Sustainable Development
Photo: Flickr/David McIntyre/Crossroads Foundation Ltd.
How will businesses and
investors respond?

68. Will Businesses & Investors Accelerate Momentum
Toward Sustainability?
STORY 4
Photo: Wikimedia Commons

69. STORY 5
Photo: Flickr/Stacy Spensley
SUSTAINABLE FOOD:
The Ascent of Plant-Based Protein?

70. FOOD DEMAND IS RISING
Sources: FAOSTAT (data 1980-2013), Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012) with WRI
adjustments (projections 2014-2050).

71. MEAT DEMAND GROWS AS INCOME GROWS
Sources: FAOSTAT (data 1980-2013), Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012) with WRI
adjustments (projections 2014-2050).

72. • Beef uses 1/3 of water
for all agricultural
production
• “Cattle Nation” = 3rd
largest GHG emitter
after China and U.S.
Photo: Flickr/American Committee for KEEP, Inc.
THE BIGGEST BEEF IS WITH BEEF

73. BEEF PRODUCTION:
• ~70% of deforestation
in South America
• #1 driver of tropical
deforestation globally
Photo: Flickr/CIFOR
A QUARTER OF THE EARTH IS PASTURELAND

74. • 2.5 acres of land
for the average
American diet
• One-half for beef
Photo: Pexels/Mail Maeder
BEEF PRODUCTION AND LAND USE

75. After 1 year of global dietary guidelines:
• 5+ million lives could be saved
• $700+ billion in healthcare
costs avoided
Photo: Flickr/Many Goldberg
LESS RED MEAT IS BETTER FOR PEOPLE…

76. …AND BETTER FOR THE PLANET
If highest consumers cut beef
consumption in half:
It would free up ~300 million
hectares of land (the size of India)
Photo: Flickr/Bureau of Land Management

77. WE GET NEARLY ENOUGH PROTEIN FROM PLANTS
Source: WRI/Shifting Diets
Gramofproteinconsumptionpercapita,perday,2009

78. AMERICANS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM BEEF
Source: http://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/how-much-meat-do-americans-eat-then-and-now-1792/

79. • One quarter of Americans
report eating less meat
• One in ten millennials is a
vegetarian or vegan
Photo: Flickr/USDA
INTEREST IN PLANT PROTEIN IS GROWING…

80. • Tyson Foods launched $150 million
venture capital fund to expand
meat alternatives
• Better Buying Lab companies
serve 25 billion meals per year
Photo: Flickr/Ronald Sarayudej
…AND BUSINESSES ARE RESPONDING

81. • China’s dietary guidelines call to
reduce meat consumption by 50%
• Denmark proposed first-ever tax on red meat
Photo: Flickr/tosa muu
GOVERNMENTS ARE STARTING TO TAKE ACTION

82. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will Health and Sustainability Agendas Align?
Photo: Loic Venance Via Getty Images
JUNE 2017:
EAT-Lancet Commission
recommendations on diet,
health & sustainability

83. WHAT TO WATCH:
Photo: Flickr/Scrubhiker
Will Pressure on Beef Production Grow?
• Group of investors representing
$1.25 trillion pushing meat
industry to diversify
• Will more beef companies make
deforestation commitments?

84. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will Momentum for Meat Alternatives Build?
• Beyond Meat products in
more than 11,000 stores
• Top restaurants & chefs
serving Impossible Burgers
Photo: Flickr/ Michael Saechang

85. The Ascent of Plant-Based Protein?
STORY 5
Photo: Flickr/Stacy Spensley

86. STORY 6
Photo: Flickr/thisisbossi
AUTONOMOUS, SHARED, ELECTRIC:
Will Mobility Trends Help People & the Planet?

87. UNACCEPTABLE COSTS: CONGESTION…
Photo: Flickr/Neil Rickards
Workers lose 8 days
of productivity per
year sitting in traffic

88. POLLUTION…
Photo: Flickr/AIRS
TRANSPORT SECTOR:
• 14% of global emissions globally
• #1 source of emissions in U.S.,
surpassing energy

89. …AND LIVES
Photo: Flickr/AIRS
• 1.25 million road
deaths per year
• 90% due to
human error

90. MOBILITY FACES MAJOR DISRUPTION
Photo: Flickr/AIRS
• Ridesharing
• Electrification
• Automation

91. RIDESHARING ON THE RISE
Photo: Flickr/ Tauno Tõhk / 陶诺
UBER:
• 1 million
rides/day
• $62.5 billion
valuation
DIDI:
• 20 million
rides/day
• $28 billion
valuation

92. CAR OWNERSHIP ON THE WAY OUT?
Photo: Flickr/Spiros Vathis
“By 2025,
owning a car
will go the way
of the DVD.”
—Lyft co-founder
John Zimmer

93. ELECTRIC VEHICLES POISED FOR TAKEOFF
Photo: Flickr/ Håkan Dahlström
• 1 million electric vehicles
on the road globally
• 30,000 U.S. charging outlets
• Battery tech advancing

94. Photo: Flickr/AIRS
AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES LEAP FORWARD

95. Photo: Flickr/Steve Jurvetson
SELF-DRIVING RIGS ON THE ROAD
Tested in Ohio,
Colorado and
Nevada

96. AUTOMATION: AN ECONOMIC DISRUPTOR

97. Photo: Flickr/AIRS
A TIME FOR CAREFUL NAVIGATION
“Simply eliminating the
drivers from cars, and
keeping everything else
about our system the
same, will be a disaster.”
—Robin Chase,
co-founder of Zipcar,
WRI Board Member

98. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will EVs Go Mainstream and Reduce Emissions?
Photo: Flickr/Paladin27
Chevy Bolt:
2017 Car of
the Year

99. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will Auto Innovation Crowd Out or
Complement Mass Transit?
Photo: Flickr/rachaelvoorhees

100. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will Robots Pass Their Road Tests?
Photo: Flickr/smoothgroover22
• Gothenburg: Volvo
• Detroit: General Motors
• Munich: BMW
• Phoenix: Waymo
• Cologne: Ford
• Boston: nuTonomy
• Los Angeles to New York City: Tesla

101. WHAT TO WATCH:
Will It All Come Together?

102. WHAT TO WATCH:
A Better Way?
Photo: Flickr/William Murphy

103. Will Mobility Trends Help People & the Planet?
STORY 6
Photo: thisisbossi/Flickr

104. 500 YEARS AGO
Photo: Wikimedia Common

105. 100 YEARS AGO
Photo: Russian Public Domain

106. 10 YEARS AGO
Photo: Wikimedia Commons

107. Photo: Michael Fleshman/Flickr
STORY 1 A NEW ADMINISTRATION:
How Far Will Trump Go?
STORY 2 GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS:
A Fossil Fuel Renaissance or Renewable Energy Surge?
STORY 3 INTERNATIONAL ACTION:
Will Momentum on Climate Continue?
STORY 4 TOMORROW’S MARKETS:
Will Businesses & Investors Accelerate Momentum Toward Sustainability?
STORY 5 SUSTAINABLE FOOD:
The Ascent of Plant-Based Protein?
STORY 6 AUTONOMOUS, SHARED, ELECTRIC:
Will Mobility Trends Help People & the Planet?