On World Environment Day (June 5, 2014), the World Resources Institute (WRI), WorldFish, the World Bank, INRA, and Kasetsart University released the newest installment of the 2013-14 World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, "Improving Productivity and Environmental Performance of Aquaculture." This working paper examines the implications of doubling aquaculture production between now and 2050, and offers recommendations to ensure that aquaculture growth contributes to a sustainable food future. Find out more at http://ow.ly/xHnJ2

1. RICHARD WAITE, MICHAEL PHILLIPS, AND RANDALL BRUMMETT
Improving
Productivity and
Environmental
Performance of
Aquaculture
Installment 5 of “Creating a Sustainable Food Future”
2013-14 World Resources Report
Photo: WorldFish Bangladesh Office.

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4. How can the world feed more than
9 billion people in 2050
in a manner that advances development and
reduces pressure on the environment?

5. The world needs to close an “animal protein gap”
Global annual animal protein availability, million tons
Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012).

6. Menu for a sustainable food future
Consumption  Reduce food loss and waste
 Shift diets
 Achieve replacement level fertility
 Reduce biofuel demand for food crops
Production  Sustainably increase crop yields
 Boost yields through crop breeding
 Improve soil and water management
 Expand onto low-carbon degraded lands
 Sustainably increase “livestock” productivity
 Increase productivity of pasture and grazing lands
 Reduce then stabilize wild fish catch
 Improve productivity and environmental performance
of aquaculture
Production
methods
 Improve livestock feeding efficiency
 Increase the efficiency of fertilizer use
 Manage rice paddies to reduce emissions

7. Authors and partners
• Richard Waite (WRI)
• Malcolm Beveridge (WorldFish)
• Randall Brummett (World Bank)
• Sarah Castine (WorldFish)
• Nuttapon Chaiyawannakarn (Kasetsart University)
• Sadasivam Kaushik (INRA)
• Rattanawan Mungkung (Kasetsart University)
• Supawat Nawapakpilai (Kasetsart University)
• Michael Phillips (WorldFish)

8. Fish are important for food and nutrition security
Supply of animal-based protein (2009), percent (100% = 31 g / capita / day)
Source: FAO (2012).

9. But the wild fish catch has peaked…
Million tons
Note: “Wild catch” includes finfish, mollusks, crustaceans, and other aquatic animals
from marine and freshwater ecosystems. It excludes all aquaculture.
Source: FAO (2014).

10. …even while fishing effort continues to rise
Percentage of marine fish stocks assessed
Source: FAO (2014).

11. Aquaculture has emerged to meet fish demand
Million tons
Sources: FAO (2012a), FAO (2012b), FAO (2013), FAO (2014).

12. Aquaculture is diverse
Production (2012), 100% = 66.6 million tons
Source: FAO (2014).

13. Nearly 90 percent of aquaculture production
is in Asia
Tons (2012)
Source: FAO (2014).

14. Aquaculture production must more than double
by 2050 to satisfy projected fish demand
Million tons
Sources: Production data 1961–2010: FAO (2014a), FAO (2014b). Aquaculture
production projections 2011–2050: Authors’ calculations assuming a linear growth rate
of 2 Mt per year.

15. Aquaculture growth could close 14 percent of the
“animal protein gap”
Global annual animal protein availability, million tons
Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012).

16. Aquaculture growth to 140 Mt in 2050 could
contribute to economic development
Source: Authors’ calculations based on FAO (2014) and World Bank, FAO, and IFPRI (2013).
Photo: WorldFish/Mike Lusmore/Duckrabbit.
$308BFarm gate value / year

17. Aquaculture growth to 140 Mt in 2050 could
contribute to economic development
Source: Authors’ calculations based on FAO (2014).
Photo: WorldFish/Mike Lusmore/Duckrabbit.
176Mlivelihoods

18. Farmed fish convert feed to food efficiently
Percent or “units of edible output per 100 units of feed input”
Sources: Terrestrial animal products: Wirsenius et al. (2010), Wirsenius (2000). Finfish and shrimp: WRI
analysis based on USDA (2013), NRC (2011), Tacon and Metian (2008), Wirsenius (2000), and FAO (1989).
Note: “Edible output” refers to the calorie and protein content of bone-free carcass.

19. But aquaculture also creates environmental
impacts and is facing resource constraints
Image: ©2013 Google Earth, DigitalGlobe.
• Land
• Water
• Energy
• Feed
• Fish diseases
• Fish escapes

20. Sustainable aquaculture growth entails…
Photo: WorldFish/Sakil.
Increasing farmed fish
production per unit of:
• Land
• Water
• Feed
• Energy
Minimizing:
• Water pollution
• Fish diseases
• Fish escapes

21. Life cycle assessment of global aquaculture
production
Source: Hall et al. (2011).

22. Aquaculture’s environmental impacts in 2010
Direct land occupation (farms): 19 Mha
Indirect land occupation (feeds): 26 Mha
Wild fish used in feed: 20 Mt
Freshwater consumption: 201 km3
Freshwater eutrophication potential: 0.4 Mt P eq
Marine eutrophication potential: 1.4 Mt N eq
Greenhouse gas emissions: 332 Mt CO2e
Source: Mungkung et al. (2014).

23. “Business as usual” scenario in 2050
Impacts relative to 2010 levels
Source: Mungkung et al. (2014).
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Production Land
occupation
(direct)
Land
occupation
(indirect)
Wild fish used
in feed
Freshwater
consumption
Freshwater
eutrophication
potential
Marine
eutrophication
potential
GHG
emissions
2010
2050
BAU

24. “Significant intensification” scenario in 2050
Impacts relative to 2010 levels
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Production Land
occupation
(direct)
Land
occupation
(indirect)
Wild fish used
in feed
Freshwater
consumption
Freshwater
eutrophication
potential
Marine
eutrophication
potential
GHG
emissions
2010
2050
BAU
Source: Mungkung et al. (2014).

25. “Shift to renewable energy” scenario in 2050
Impacts relative to 2010 levels
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Production Land
occupation
(direct)
Land
occupation
(indirect)
Wild fish used
in feed
Freshwater
consumption
Freshwater
eutrophication
potential
Marine
eutrophication
potential
GHG
emissions
2010
2050
BAU
Source: Mungkung et al. (2014).

26. “More efficient feeding” scenario in 2050
Impacts relative to 2010 levels
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Production Land
occupation
(direct)
Land
occupation
(indirect)
Wild fish used
in feed
Freshwater
consumption
Freshwater
eutrophication
potential
Marine
eutrophication
potential
GHG
emissions
2010
2050
BAU
Source: Mungkung et al. (2014).

27. 0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Production Land
occupation
(direct)
Land
occupation
(indirect)
Wild fish used
in feed
Freshwater
consumption
Freshwater
eutrophication
potential
Marine
eutrophication
potential
GHG
emissions
2010
2050
BAU
“More farmed freshwater fish” scenario in 2050
Impacts relative to 2010 levels
Source: Mungkung et al. (2014).

28. “Shift to more plant-based feeds”
scenario in 2050
Impacts relative to 2010 levels
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Production Land
occupation
(direct)
Land
occupation
(indirect)
Wild fish used
in feed
Freshwater
consumption
Freshwater
eutrophication
potential
Marine
eutrophication
potential
GHG
emissions
2010
2050
BAU
Source: Mungkung et al. (2014).

29. Comparison of aquaculture growth scenarios
Impacts relative to 2010 levels
Source: Mungkung et al. (2014).
2050 Scenario Land
occupation
(direct)
Land
occupation
(indirect)
Wild fish
used in
feed
Freshwater
consumption
Freshwater
eutrophication
potential
Marine
eutrophication
potential
GHG
emissions
Business as
usual
2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
Significant
intensification
1.6 2.1 2.6 2.0 2.3 2.6 3.0
Renewable
energy
2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.3 1.0
More efficient
feeding
2.3 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.2
More farmed
freshwater fish
2.5 2.7 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4
More plant-
based feed
N/A 3.9 0.0 2.3 2.7 3.6 2.2
Impacts relative to 2050 “business as usual”
Increase No change Decrease

30. Comparison of farmed species’ performance
in 2010
Source: Calculated from Mungkung et al. (2014).
Species group Land use
(ha / t
edible
protein)
Freshwater
consumption
(m3 / kg edible
protein)
Wild fish
used in feed
(fish-in/fish-
out)
Eutrophication
potential
(kg P t edible
protein)
GHG intensity
(t CO2e / t edible
protein)
Carps 12.0 61.4 0.2 97 47.2
Mollusks 0.0 0.0 0.0 -148 11.1
Shrimps 16.4 4.4 0.8 104 161.7
Tilapias 7.5 15.9 0.7 82 40.7
Catfish 9.5 52.2 0.4 97 134.8
Salmonids 2.4 0.0 1.9 48 9.8

31. The closest thing to a free lunch?
Photo: SantiMB.

32. Key findings
• Aquaculture production must more than
double by 2050
• Aquaculture is a relatively efficient source
of animal protein
• Aquaculture creates environmental
impacts, is subject to resource constraints
• Environmental impacts vary by species
• Intensification must continue – need to
manage tradeoffs

33. Recommendations
1. Increase investment in technological
innovation and transfer
2. Use spatial planning and zoning to guide
sustainable aquaculture growth
3. Shift incentives to reward sustainability
4. Shift consumption to low-trophic farmed
fish species

34. How Will
Aquaculture
Grow?

35. AQUACULTURE IS NOT A RAVENOUS INDUSTRIAL MONSTER
DEVOURING THE PLANET TO FEED THE RICH

36. Small is beautiful…
Region Aquaculture Employment
(thousands)
Productivity
(2010)
Tons of fish
per farmer
Africa 8.59
Asia 3.32
Europe 29.68
LAC 7.74
N America 164.00
Oceania 30.67
World Total 3.61
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
but complicated!

37. Constraining
Sustainable
Growth
Space & H2O
Technology
Capital

38. Capital
(∴ Technology)
is Constrained by Risk
• >90% Private Capital
• Massive disease outbreaks
• Reduced efficiency due to stress, inbreeding
• Increasing operation costs

39. Asia: Crowded
Latin America: Some Potential
Africa: Cool and Dry
North America: mostly too cold
Europe: cold and crowded
Map: WorldFish

40. • Feed, breeding & management technology
• Lower risk to attract investors
• Governance for non-traditional sites & H2O
Overcoming Constraints

41. Source: Iliyasu et al. 2014; University of Victoria & Lenfest (2010)
• Asia: 0.64;
US/Europe: 0.73
• Genetics: 12% Fish;
1% Land Animals
• FIFO: 0.6 in 2000;
0.3 in 2010
Technical &
Ecological
Efficiency

42. Plant Proteins
3% fishmeal + 40% SPC + 30% SBM 40% SPC + taurine 64% fishmeal

43. Fish Oil

44. 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1.0 2.0-2.5 2.5-3.0 3.0-3.5 3.5-4.0
PercentofTotalbySub-Sector
Trophic Level
Culture Capture
Source: FAO (2012), FishBase (2012)
Anchovies
+
Farmed Salmon
Wild
Salmon

45. Protecting
Environments, Fish
Health & Investments
Ecological Issues
• Siting – identify zones that are good for aquaculture; away or
downstream of important ecosystem and biodiversity assets.
• Carrying Capacity – measure how fast the ecosystem is moving
towards the limit.
Institutional Issues
• Setting Limits - set with the local community key criteria for impact
assessment.
• Enforcement - establish regulatory framework, local authority and
trade association that represents the interests of the aquaculture
value chain.
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000

46. Back from the
Brink:
Lessons from Chile
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
19861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012

47. • Zones Easier to Implement
• Low Energy Systems
• No Land or Freshwater
• Established Hatchery & Culture Technology
• Turn Carnivores to Herbivores
• Keeping the small-scale players in the game?
Moving Off Shore

48. Thank You!

49. “Improving Productivity and
Environmental Performance of
Aquaculture”
Download at: WRI.org/WRR
2013–2014 World Resources Report:
Creating a Sustainable Food Future