CARBON REMOVAL AT SCALE:
A CALL TO ACTION FROM THE
IPCC REPORT
March 23, 2023

SPEAKERS
Greg
Nemet
Noah
Deich
Nora
Cohen Brown
IPCC author;
University of
Madison-Wisconsin
Department
of Energy
Charm
Industrial
Taryn
Fransen
World Resources
Institute
(moderator)

EVOLUTION OF CARBON REMOVAL WORK AT WRI
wri.org/initiatives/carbon-removal
Nascent CDR options
and governance
Foundational papers CarbonShot
Federal policy options
to advance CDR Tree restoration + jobs
Direct air capture
Deeper analysis of
leading CDR pathways
International
governance needs for
large-scale CDR
Carbon Mineralization
Measurement,
Reporting &
Verification (MRV) for
federal policy support
Long-term goal:
Set us on track for
multi-gigaton scale
annual removal by
midcentury

STAYING BELOW 1.5°C
Source: Based on IPCC (2018) and CAT (2021)

A FALSE NARRATIVE FROM THE OIL INDUSTRY

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OF TECHNOLOGICAL
CARBON REMOVAL NEEDED
systemschangelab.org/technological-carbon-removal

Scaling
Carbon Dioxide Removal
GREGORY NEMET
Lead Author AR6 WG III
March 2023
Collaborators :
Oliver Geden, Jan Minx, and Steve Smith
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SPM, C.11
Working Group 3 (2022)
Summary for Policymakers
C.11 The deployment of Carbon Dioxide
Removal (CDR) to counterbalance hard-to-abate
residual emissions is unavoidable if net zero
CO2 or GHG emissions are to be achieved.
The scale and timing of deployment will depend
on the trajectories of gross emission reductions
in different sectors.
Upscaling the deployment of CDR depends on
developing effective approaches to address
feasibility and sustainability constraints
especially at large scales. (high confidence)
{3.4, 7.4, 12.3, Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 12}
Synthesis Report
(2023)
“Carbon dioxide removal
(CDR) will be necessary to
achieve net-negative CO2
emissions (see B.6). ”

Emission reductions still
80-90% of mitigation
(Modelled) residual
emissions:
• mainly non-CO2 GHGs
from agriculture,
• but also CO2 from
industry, aviation and
land-use
• Gross-Gross
perspective more
insightful than net only
C H A P T E R 1 2 , C R O S S - C H A P T E R B O X 8 , F I G U R E 2
Net zero + residual emissions → Need CDR

• Taxonomy based on
AR6 WG I, highlighting
removal process &
timescale of storage
• Multiple
implementation options
per CDR method
• Durable storage
essential
• Shorter-term storage
creates liability
C H A P T E R 1 2 , C R O S S - C H A P T E R B O X 8 , F I G U R E 1
Diversity of CDR approaches

IPCC AR6 WG I, Chapter 5, Figure 5.36

Key messages
• Current CDR is 2 GtCO2/yr
o almost all from conventional CDR on land
o 0.002 GtCO2/yr from novel CDR
• Gap between CDR proposed by countries and
pathways to meet Paris goal
• Reducing emissions faster lowers CDR requirement
• CDR research, innovation and public awareness all
growing rapidly
o Over 28,000 studies, few in social science
o $4bn public R&D; increasing patents, mainly in China
o Social sentiment trends positive, except BECCS
1
2
#StateofCDR | www.StateofCDR.org

1
3
There is a gap in proposed levels of CDR and what is
needed to meet the Paris temperature goal

1
4
Novel CDR scales rapidly in most scenarios, from near
zero
●Median scenario scales
novel CDR 30 times by
2030
●And 1,300 times by 2050
●Long-term strategies
would scale by 300 times
by 2050

“The next decade is crucial for
novel CDR, in particular, since
the amount of CDR
deployment required in the
second half of the century will
only be feasible if we see
substantial new deployment in
the next ten years, novel CDR’s
formative phase.”
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The formative phase is now

@IPCC
Website: ipcc.ch
IPCC Secretariat: ipcc-sec@wmo.int
IPCC Press Office: ipcc-media@wmo.int
@IPCC_CH
linkedin.com/company/ipcc
F O R M O R E I N F O R M A T I O N : C O N N E C T W I T H U S :
THANK YOU
Prof. GREGORY NEMET
U n i v e r s i t y o f W i s c o n s i n - M ad is o n
n e m e t @ w i sc . e du
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