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2 juris ozolins vai_vejam_ir_vieta_elektroenergijas_tirgu

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2 juris ozolins vai_vejam_ir_vieta_elektroenergijas_tirgu

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2 juris ozolins vai_vejam_ir_vieta_elektroenergijas_tirgu

  1. 1. 25.04.2018. jurisozolins@me.com
  2. 2. …. atjaunojamai enerģijai jāiemācās strādāt tirgus apstākļos .... (?!) The new market design also contributes to the EU's goal of being the world leader in energy production from renewable energy sources by allowing more flexibility to accommodate an increasing share of renewable energy in the grid. The shift to renewables and increased electrification is crucial to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The new electricity market design will also contribute to the creation of jobs and growth, and attract investments. Short –term markets to fully integrate variable renewable sources
  3. 3. NordPoolSpot Elspot Flows MWh 25.04.2019 All day
  4. 4. 1,29 1,57 0,07 2,93 31,2 12,5 53,6 15,8 1,1 114,3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 LV instoled capacity GW NordPool area instoled capacity GW 27% 11% 47% 14% 1,0% Capacities Nordpool Area
  5. 5. 41% 7% 1% 9% 6% 12% 2% DK EE LV LT FI SE NO Ar vēja ģenerēto enerģiju nosegtā daļa nacionālajā elektrības patēriņā 2018
  6. 6. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Latvia hourly €/MWh 25.04.2019.
  7. 7. 100% 72% 6% 10% -3% 20% Baltic consum Baltic prod From FI From SE To PL From RUS Elektrības tirdzniecības rezultāts Baltijas tirdzniecības apgabalā NordPoolSpot Day-ahead 2018 JO Jan-19 Source: NordPool
  8. 8. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Baltics generation GWh/month Of which Fossil Oil shale Of which Fossil Gas Renewable net generation National electrical consumption JO 2019 Source: ENTSO-E
  9. 9. CO2 EUROPEAN EMISSION ALLOWANCES PRICE CHART OPTIONS CO2 EUROPEAN EMISSION ALLOWANCES PRICE CHART
  10. 10. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 LV GWh/month Of which Fossil Gas Renewable net generation Solar net generation National electrical consumption JO 2019 Source: ENTSO-E
  11. 11. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 RES generation, Baltics GWh/month Wind net generation Solar net generation Of which Biomass Of which Biogas Renewable Waste net generation Renewable net generation Renewable Hydro net generation JO 2019 Source: ENTSO-E
  12. 12. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Gas , RES and Hydro Wind net generation Solar net generation Of which Fossil Gas Renewable net generation Renewable Hydro net generation JO 2019 Source: ENTSO-E
  13. 13. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Baltic RES -E , promoted GWh per month EE RES LT RES LV RES Juris Ozolins 28.11.2017 Source: ENTSO -E
  14. 14. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Wind GWh Juris Ozolins 28.11.2017 Source: ENTSO -E
  15. 15. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Baltic wind GWh/m 2016-208 EE Wind net generation LT Wind net generation LV Wind net generation Juris Ozolins Apr-2019 Source: ENTSO-E
  16. 16. 1847 3628 394 EE Wind net generation LT Wind net generation LV Wind net generation Wind production GWh 2016-2018 Juris Ozolins Apr-2019 Source: ENTSO-E
  17. 17. 27 56 74 79 89 88 112 104 87 133 136 137 135 121 123 58 50 100 150 200 250 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Atbalsts virs tirgus cenas milj.€ Visi AER (RES) Fosil( gāzes koģenrācija un sistēmas jaudas) J.Ozolins Mar-2019 Source: EPT
  18. 18. 306 181 69 49 296 58 575 25 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Biogāze Biomasa HES <2 MW Vējš CHP < 4 MW CHP > 4MW CHP >100 MW RES 23 MW 2011-2018 milj.EUR J.Ozolins Mar-2019 Source: EPT
  19. 19. 63 82 97 103 104 104 103 70 736 736 976 976 976 976 976 986 957 1034 1313 1356 1366 1375 1393 1363 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MW RES 23 MW CHP >100 MW CHP > 4MW CHP < 4 MW Vējš HES <2 MW Biomasa Biogāze Totāli Juris Ozolins Mar-2019 Source : EPT Ar atbalstu ievestās jaudās MWel
  20. 20. 0 24 13 14 9 11 24 54 42 17 11 12 13 245 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201… Instilētās AER ģenerācijas jaudas MW/gadā un darbā 2019 Bez Daugavas HES kaskādes Juris Ozolins Mar-2019 Source : EPT
  21. 21. In onshore wind, turbine prices have dropped steeply. Since December 2016, they are down 17% according to the 2018 BNEF Wind Turbine Price Index (web | terminal). We forecast a temporary stabilization at just below $0.8 million per MW in 2019. Despite this, the year will be a moment of truth for onshore wind turbine makers and their suppliers. https://www.4coffshore.com/offshorewind/index.aspx?lat=54.783&lon=14.121&wfid=DE46 Bloomberg New Energy Finance

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