SAPM NOTES

1. SECURITY ANALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO
MANAGEMENT
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Vikash Barnwal
Faculty of Business studies
Kashi Institute Of Technology
Vikash.b@kashiit.ac.in

2. FANDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Fundamental analysis is a method that attempts to predict the intrinsic value or
True value of an investment.
Fundamental Analysis is based on the theory that the market price of an asset
tends to move towards its 'real value' or 'intrinsic value’.
In fundamental analysis an investor makes an attempt to study everything that
can affect the share price.
Investor can look for information about the economy, industry and the company
so that he can find a right security to invest in.
The ultimate aim of doing fundamental analysis is to find a value that an
investor can compare with the security’s current price and on basis of his
comparison he finally decides whether to buy an underpriced security or to sell
an overpriced security.

3. WHY TO STUDY FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
 Before understanding about how to do fundamental analysis one should
understand why he should do fundamental analysis. The answer to this
question lies in the fact the all of us are rational consumers.
 We want more satisfaction for every rupee spent.
 Everyone wants to maximize his benefit.
 For an example many times when we are at a shop to buy a product we
often say to the shopkeeper to tell us the final price of the product at which
he is ready to sell as the price told by him earlier are not according to the
worth of the product for us.
 The same concept applies here. When we buy a share we are offered with
various shares from various companies. Here again the question arises that
whether the market price of share is a true reflector of its actual worth or not.
 Thus fundamental analysis helps hereby doing fundamental analysis one
can calculate the intrinsic value of

4. 3 LEVEL OF FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Thus the factors that affect a company can be broadly classified as:-
 Economic factors like rate of growth of the economy, exchange rates etc.
 Industry factors like demand and supply in the industry, competitors in the
industry etc.
 Company related factors like image of the company and its managers,
profitability etc.
Fundamental Analysis involves the
following three analysis
1) Economic Analysis,
2) Industry Analysis,
3) Company Analysis.

5. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
 Economic Analysis relates to the analysis of the economy.
 This related to study about the economy in details and
analysis whether economic conditions are favourable for the
companies to prosper or not.
 Analysts always try to find out whether the economic
development is conducive for the growth of the company.
 An investor in a security market can give prediction about
the future of share price of a company on the basis of the
study of forces affecting economic environment of the
country.
Take an example of Indian economy, when India is increasing its goodwill
and building a positive identity internationally it has led to an increase in
investors’ confidence in the economy and in industries.

6. FACTORS OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
The economy is studied to determine if overall
conditions are good for the stock market.
For the Economic Analysis, the Macro Economic Factors are studied
to know about the condition of an economy or performance of the
security market of any country.
Some points to be considered
GDP of the country Interest rates
Performance of security market Supply and demand of money
Inflation rate Government borrowings and loans
Taxation policy and rates Consumer and goods market
Foreign Direct Investment Balance of payments etc.

7. MAJOR TOOLS OF ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS
 Gross Domestic Product
 Fiscal Policy
 Monetary Policy
 Saving Rate
 Trade Deficit
 Exchange Rate
Trade Deficit

8. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
 GDP is the measure of the value of goods and services produced within the domestic
boundary of a country.
 It is calculated by adding the market prices of all the final goods and services produces in the
domestic territory in a year.
 The GDP is one the most important indicators used for the measurement of the strength of a
country's economy.
 In this value added by each firm is measured to determine the health of the economy.
 GDP has a greater value and meaning for everyone. But in relation to investors, they are
concerned about GDP growth as it determines the growth opportunity for companies to make
more profit.

 We can understand it in this way also that increase in GDP means increase in the production
of goods and services which in turn will result increase in sales of a company and thus
increase in profits of the company. This increase in profit will lead to more returns to equity
share holders and thus it affects share prices.
For example, if a firm buys wood logs and adds value to it by making a wooden
table out of it then in GDP we will take the value of wood logs plus the increase
in value of wood logs when they are changed into a table.

9. FISCAL POLICY
 Fiscal policy is the policy through which government
adjusts its spending and tax rates to stabilize the
economy.
 Fiscal policy is in principles based on the thoughts of
John Maynard Keynes, where governments could
transform economic performance by adjusting tax rates
and government spending.
 Commonly it has been stated that government spending
in the form of subsidies usually reduces the cost of
product and thus leaving scope for larger profit of the
firm .
 The larger profit in turn leads to larger earning per share.
This increase in earnings per share will lead to increase
in value of share prices.
 On the other hand increase in taxes for the company
reduces the amount of profit available for share holders.
Thus increase in taxes has the effect of reducing the
amount of Earning per share and thus leads to fall in
share prices of the company.
Whether fiscal policy directly affect stock price or not?

10. MONETARY POLICY
Monetary policy is deciding about interest rates at which
money can be borrowed.
In view of an investor, monetary policy affects share
prices if there is variance between the investors’
expectation about the movement of interest rate and
actual movement in interest rates.
If RBI raises the interest rate then it will impact the
interest rate on debentures and bonds. With increase in
interest rates on debentures and bonds there will be
change in risk perception of investors and thus they will
want higher return on their equity investment.
Thus an increase in interest rate if not accompanied by
increase in returned of equity then investors will get
inclines towards debentures and bonds rather than equity.
This will affect the demand for equity and thus will lower
its prices. Similarly if change in interest rate is as per the
expectation of investors then it will not affect equity prices
to a larger extent.
Monetary Policy is the instrument which it controls the supply of money.

11. SAVING RATE
Increase in interest rate Decrease in interest rate
This will result in an increase in demand
for equity shares.
A lower saving rate means lesser disposal
of funds by household into equity market
which will reduce the demand for equity.
Thus, share market will be bullish as it
has an impact of increase in share prices.
Thus, there will be reduction in share
prices and market will be bearish.
Changes in individual saving rate effect the flow of funds into
investments.

12. TRADE DEFICIT
Highlights
Trade deficit occurs when countries imports are
more than its export.
In other words we can see it that a country is
buying more of foreign goods than it is selling to
them.
Thus this will impact domestic producers. More
imports mean more purchase of foreign goods
and less purchase of domestic goods.
This will result in more profitability to foreign
companies than domestic producers.
The lesser the profit lesser will the amount of
profits available to equity shareholders. Thus it
will result in decline in the prices of shares of the
domestic company.
On the other hand there will be an increase in
the prices of foreign company’s shares
Trade deficit also impact on share prices.
There are different views regarding trade deficit. Some believe that it is favorable in
case of strong expansion. Some says that it is to good in times of recession.

13. EXCHANGE RATE
Exchange rate is also another factor that affects the
trade or net exports between the countries.
This in turn will also affect the trade and business of the
companies {having global presence} that is related to any foreign
market whether for buying raw material, selling goods or in any
other way.
The effect on such companies activities or business will affect that
companies profitability and enhance the prices of shares. Thus
exchange rate affects share prices.

14. CONCLUSION
Economic analysis as we have discussed is an indicator of how changes in
economic factors will influence a company.
It is a true fact that changes in economic policies and environment will affect the
environment in which business is done and companies operate.
Thus a good understanding and eye on economic variables like GDP rate of
growth, Monetary policy ,Fiscal Policy, exchange rate, business cycle, imports,
exports etc will give a valuable insight into the future of business and company’s
performance.
An analysis of GDP and how these components are related to the performance of
the industry and companies is also required.
Thus economic analysis helps the investors to get an idea about the direction of
change in the capital market as economic analysis deals with forces operating in
the overall economy.
Economic analysis has an important role to play in the investment decisions. In
fact in this era of globalization when businesses are no more operating in domestic
arena only it is very important that one should also study international economic
environment and situation to make a good judgment.