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Succeeding in large round fundraising or M&A in the COVID recession

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Succeeding in large round fundraising or M&A in the COVID recession

  1. 1. Private and ConfidentialPrivate and Confidential May 2020 NOW WHAT? RAISING LARGER ROUNDS IN A RECESSION
  2. 2. IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR THIS, YOU ARE IN THE WRONG WORKSHOP 2
  3. 3. PREVIOUS TRANSACTIONS 3 Investment by $35m Capital Raised ca. $50m Capital Raised Investment by Investment by $65m Capital Raised £60m Capitalization / Expansion Investment by Strategic Acquisition Sold to
  4. 4. KEY MESSAGES 4 Markets were strongest pre-Covid With valuations resetting, the value of preparation is rising weekly …requiring companies raising anytime next 12 months to adapt, fast Investor mindsets have already changed… 1 2 43
  5. 5. WE ARE IN A RECESSION 5
  6. 6. % of fundraises between $50-150M IN THE WORLD PRE RECESSION, FUNDRAISING PREDOMINATED Source: Pitchbook as of February 2020; European Tech Fundraisings between $25m and $300m; M&A between $50m and $500m (where disclosed) Companies opted for larger rounds rather than selling “early” Because ‘they could’, rather than ’they should’ Many of these rounds involve secondary That’s why M&A is much flatter than fundraising The cycle must cool, though fund $ are at an all time high 29% 38% 35 63 99 74 108 175 214 45 50 82 70 71 79 54 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 European Fundraises ($25-300m) European Exits ($50-500m) 6
  7. 7. GOING FORWARD M&A WILL RISE, SIGNIFICANTLY AND FAST 7 Source: Pitchbook, accessed 16 April 2020 Note: Global Exits $50-500m, Global Fundraises $25-100m; shaded areas denote recessionary periods and their near term aftermaths Ratio of Number of Exits to Fundraises 0.5x 0.7x 0.9x 1.1x 1.3x 1.5x 1.7x 1.9x 2.1x 2.3x 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Post financial crashPost the dotcom crash
  8. 8. Growth Funds Raised in 2020 RECORD LEVELS OF ‘DRY POWDER’ STILL AVAILABLE 8Source: Investor Press Releases, Press Reports, The Wall Street Journal, Pitchbook Note: 2019 Venture Capital Dry Powder as of June 2019 2009 c.$120bn 2010 c.$115bn 2011 c.$115bn 2012 c.$110bn 2013 c.$115bn 2014 c.$115bn 2015 c.$125bn 2016 c.$150bn 2017 c.$140bn 2010 2019 Median B Round US $7m $19m Europe $5m $21m Median C Round US $10m $30m Europe $11m $37m 2018 c.$160bn 2019 c.$190bn Venture Capital Dry Powder
  9. 9. GLOBALLY, DIFFERENT SEGMENTS WILL BE MORE/LESS ATTRACTIVE 9 Online Recruitment Gig Economy (ex. Ride Sharing) Ride Sharing Co-working Spaces Online Travel Video/Music Streaming Remote Working Software Digital Health Gaming Home Fitness Online Groceries Food Delivery EdTech Classifieds CYCLICAL NEGATIVE CYCLICAL POSITIVE STRUCTURAL NEGATIVE STRUCTURAL POSITIVE Fintech Hosting & Co-Location Offline Events (Ticketmaster) SME services (Vistaprint) Off-Grid SolarAdTech Digital Logistics E-Commerce
  10. 10. 10 LOWER VALUES + UNCERTAINTY = (MUCH) MORE PREPARATION”
  11. 11. FLIGHT TO ‘UNCERTAINTY-PROOF’ A clear path to profitability Demonstrate (relative) benefit from uncertainty Demonstrate team adaptation 11 Already a flight to ‘uncertainty- proof’, not absolute size or growth Growth is no longer the governing metric
  12. 12. THESE WILL BECOME FUNDAMENTAL 12 Key Metrics Issues To Consider Unit Economics ▪ Decreasing CAC critical as LTV becomes more uncertain ▪ Contribution margin of new / existing customers (marketing is a semi-variable cost) ▪ Churn evolution, churn mgmt. strategies (customer success, cross-sell / upsell trends) ▪ Relative gain in share / attract new customers Capital Efficiency ▪ Historic & future capital efficiency (<1 for sure, 0.8x is the objective) ▪ In terms of debt, repayment management, covenants Cash-flow / Liquidity ▪ Net working capital focus ▪ Evolution of payment cycles, ability to adapt / take advantage if possible
  13. 13. THE RULE OF 40 PRE-COVID 13Source: Keybanc Private SaaS Companies Survey 2019
  14. 14. THE NEW RULE OF 40 + MIN FCF 14Source: Keybanc Private SaaS Companies Survey 2019, Magister estimates Illustrative recut Rule of 40% with focus on burn rate 40% Growth + 0% FCF Margin > 60% Growth + (20%) FCF Margin
  15. 15. Board Dynamics Full Ratchet Anti-Dilution TERM SHEETS PRE AND POST-COVID 15 Interest / PIK Governance / Reserved Matters New founder, ESOP equity >1x Liquidation, Participation Tranches Exit Legislation Pay to Play $ / Share & Proceeds AVP = ‘Truth’ Founder Share Sale Negative Control Rights Tranches Valuation Ratchets
  16. 16. LIKELY 3 WAVES OF M&A 16 ▪ Sellers who have limited runway ▪ Opportunistic acquirers targeting strategic sectors which are re-rating (e.g. AI, Fintech) Near Term Deals ‘corona-prices’ + affordable/strategic1 ▪ Companies whose equity story benefits (relatively) from recession generally, Covid- 19 specifically (e.g. Health Tech, EdTech, Remote Working) ▪ Buyers finally being able to afford key technology and market share Strategic Deals in the Medium Term3 ▪ Fragmented markets should aggregate ▪ Cost consolidation ▪ Sponsors naturally reaching roll-off, hence exit portfolio mgmt. Consolidation Over the Medium Term2
  17. 17. CASH IS THE CURRENCY OF EXITS, AND COMPANIES HAVE MORE THAN EVER 17 Source: Capital IQ, accessed 17 April 2020 Note: Cash and cash equivalents (including long-term investments of the Top 100 companies in the information technology (excl. telecom) sector globally, by market capitalisation) – FT, 07 December 2017 Cash Balances of Global Top 100 Public Tech Companies(1) (all values in US$bn) 329 339 398 507 689 952 1,218 1,598 1,487
  18. 18. WHAT DOES BACK TO BASICS MEAN 18 Suppliers, customers and other stakeholders are more flexible in times of crisis You have, or are, reviewing every aspect of the business Your 2020 budget is now irrelevant Customer retention and unit economics are more important than ever “You never let a crisis go to waste” -Rahm Emmanuel
  19. 19. “SUCCESS IS 90% PREPARATION” - ALEXANDER GRAHAM BELL 19 ITS VALUE IS GOING UP EVERY WEEK
  20. 20. BASIC REQUIREMENT FOR A CEO 20 10–20% Time Should be Invested Preparing for a Large Round in the Year Before Challenge, refine and articulate growth drivers Define and articulate what you do that’s “really hard” Ramp corporate marketing, news-flow ‘Date’ large investors Get the help that will make a difference early How? Start uncomfortably early Do a structured project plan, key actions and milestones When? Effects of Covid-19 The process will take twice as long Investors will need more engagement Due Diligence will be more detailed

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