7. A tool best used to
embrace an uncertain
future
What is
Explores a range of
Scenario plausible futures
Planning?
Allows for the
consideration of
complex and
interrelated forces
10. Develop
Explore Implications
‘Drivers’ Develop Preferred
Trends and for the
Shaping four Future and
Implications River
River plausible action
for tourism Canyon
Canyon scenarios planning
industry Country
Country
11. Importance / Uncertainty matrix
Rated each driver on a 1 – 5 scale
Driver Importance Uncertainty
12. Program for the Evening
• Develop detailed narratives for four
plausible scenarios for the future of
River Canyon Country
(based on clusters of key drivers).
• Explore the possible futures before and
the consequences for River Canyon
Country
13. Global Drivers of Change
• Global economic • Values and lifestyles
• Local economic development • The economic divide
• Energy costs • Education
• Cost of living • Governance, regulation and
• Trained workforce government funding
• Population change • Climate change & natural
• Aging disasters
• Community collaboration and • Depletion of natural resources &
engagement loss of biodiversity
• Urbanization • Land use planning
• Access to Health Care • Lodging developments
• Values and lifestyles • Transportation infrastructure
• Access to information and
communication technology
14. River Canyon Country Scenario Shaping Clusters of Drivers
4.00
Impact of climate change & natural
Urbanization disasters
3.50
Global economic
volatility
Uncertainty
Economic divide Depletion Natural
Population change Resources
3.00
Trained Workforce
Energy costs Local Economic
Access to Health
Access to IT development
Care
Government
Cost of living Lodging
Values and developments
Education lifestyles
2.50 Collaboration and
Transportation and infrastructure engagement
Aging population Land use Planning
2.00
3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50
Importance
15. Regional scenario shaping clusters of drivers
Ability to leverage human capacity
Values and lifestyles
Community collaboration and engagement
Local economic development
Trained workforce
Tourism and economic infrastructure
Transportation infrastructure
Land use planning
Lodging development
Access to information and communication technology
16. Well resourced local tourism and
economic infrastructures
Tourism and Econ
Effective
Fragmented and planning.
disjointed collaboration
efforts with Ability to Leverage Human Capital and actions that
conflicting are anchored in
priorities. local values,
infrastructure
aspirations and
skills.
Lack of critical infrastructures to
support viable tourism industry
17. Scenario name and brief description
Characteristics of the local society
Characteristics of the Tourism Economy
Environmental Characteristics
18. • Population
makeup/characteris
tics
Regional
• Distribution of
dimensions to population
consider • Landscape and
visual impacts
(What would • ‘Liveability’ and
quality of life
tourism in River features
Canyon Country • Skills and
be like in 2030?) educational profiles
• Industry and
economic profiles
19. Timeline for scenario
formulation
Suggested Scenario Group timeline
6:30 Group meet and scope-out scenario (15m)
6:45 Break into 3 groups – develop characteristics (30m)
7:15 Small group report back (10m)
7:25 Short scenario name (5m)
7:30 Return to main room ready to present
20. Resilience and vulnerability of
scenarios
How would we respond under ‘shocks’?
• What would happen to our communities and people?
• What would our economy do?
• Impacts on the environment?
Shocks?
• There is an economic double dip..
• Price of oil jumps dramatically
22. Effective planning. collaboration and actions that are
anchored in local values, aspirations and skills.
Tourism and Econ
Lack of critical Well resourced
infrastructures local tourism
to support Ability to Leverage Human Capital and economic
viable tourism infrastructures
industry
infrastructure
Fragmented and disjointed efforts with
conflicting priorities.
23. Scenario A –
Characteristics of the local society
• Xxx
Characteristics of the tourism economy
• xxx
Environmental characteristics
• xxx
24. Scenario B –
Characteristics of the local society
• Xxx
Characteristics of the tourism economy
• xxx
Environmental characteristics
• xxx
25. Scenario C –
Characteristics of the local society
• Xxx
Characteristics of the tourism economy
• xxx
Environmental characteristics
• xxx
26. Scenario D –
Characteristics of the local society
• Xxx
Characteristics of the tourism economy
• xxx
Environmental characteristics
• xxx
27. Tourism and Econ
Hijacked Adventur-
mental
Ability to Leverage Human Capital
Jewel of infrastructure
Economic Haiku Lou
Denial View
30. Tourism and Econ
Hijacked Adventur-
mental
Ability to Leverage Human Capital
Jewel of infrastructure
Economic Haiku Lou
Denial View
31. RIVER CANYON COUNTRY – 2030 VISION
River Canyon Country in 2030 is a region that is engaged toward a common future with
a clear shared identity. The community has worked hard to build on values of quality
education, health and creating an active lifestyle, and this has paid off in having a
dynamic and high caliber workforce and strong social capital. This is reflected in how
our community organizations and volunteers work together in a coordinated and
cohesive manner. This cohesion allows us to adapt and capitalize on new and emerging
opportunities, while maintaining our strong community base. We value our people and
invest in creating opportunities for them to work, contribute and thrive in the region.
We have beautiful landscapes, parks, and natural vistas, which are now connected by a
highly developed network of trails, by-ways and transport systems. We have a strong
economic tourism infrastructure focused on leveraging our unique regional assets of
local food, outdoor recreation and cultural diversity and identity. Our thriving economy is
built on our locally owned entrepreneurial businesses, and complemented by world-class
destinations. We are known worldwide for our authentic, family friendly and
environmentally sustainable practices. We have become a renowned mecca for well
managed outdoor and eco-tourism and cultural experiences that make us the ‘must-do’
destination for our many new and return visitors from across the world.
32. Key Action Areas
• Regional leadership structure
• Internal outreach / local communication
• Develop regional marketing strategy
• Training to increase local knowledge
