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Briefing:
Scarborough Transit Planning Update
January2016
Transportation Planning Section | City Planning Division
Scarborough
โ€ข Largely low density suburban form surrounding
Scarborough Centre
โ€ข Public transit is predominantly local buses
2
37.2k weekday riders
Population 625,000
Density 33.3 people/ha
Scarborough Centre 17km from downtown
Photo source: Talhamujahid at the English language Wikipedia
Existing RapidTransit and 10 Minute Frequent Surface Transit
3
โ€ข Predominantly bus
based transit
โ€ข Infrequent north-
south routes
โ€ข Employment areas
lack frequent transit
service
Daily Ridership on Busiest TTC Surface Routes
4
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Ridersperweekday
Routes
Busiest Routes
Outside of
Scarborough
Busiest Routes
in Scarborough
โ€ข 8 surface
routes in
Scarborough
have more
than 20 000
daily riders
Source: 2012 TTC: Ridership Statistics
Transit and Urban Form
โ€ข Use of land around the transit line should be planned to
make use of the transit capacity offered
โ€“ Higher capacity & frequent transit can support greater densities
by moving more people
โ€“ Stations should be planned and designed to be integrated with
development
โ€“ Areas around stations should be intensified to accommodate
more jobs and people within a 5 minute walk of a station
5
Golden Mile
Focus Area
Dufferin
Focus Area
Yonge-Eglinton
Midtown in Focus
Kennedy
Mobility Hub
West Side Mall
Focus Area
Bayview
Focus Area
Don Mills
Focus Area
Mount Dennis
Mobility Hub
Laird
Focus Area
GOLDEN MILE
BAYVIEW
LAIRD
DON MILLS
KENNEDY
WEST SIDE MALL
DUFFERIN
MOUNT DENNIS
EglintonAvenue IntensificationAreas & FocusAreas
Existing Travel Patterns forAll Trip Types
โ€ข 14% of all trips that both begin and end in Scarborough
are made using transit
โ€“ Need to increase access
โ€ข 6% of all trips that begin in Scarborough end in the
downtown, of those, 66% are made using transit
โ€“ Fast and frequent connection important
7
Existing Transit Travel Patterns
Destinations of all transit trips originating in Scarborough
8
48%
Scarborough
23%
Downtown
24%
Rest of Toronto
5%
Outside Toronto
Key Destinations (all trip types)
9
Key destinations for trips originating in Scarborough Daily Trips
Financial District (bounded by University-Queen-Yonge-Lake Shore) 12,500
University of Toronto - St George Campus (Traffic Zone 69) 6,000
York University area (Traffic Zone 391) 5,500
Ryerson University area (Traffic Zone 38) 5,000
Yonge-Eglinton Centre 4,000
Pearson International Airport area (Traffic Zone 3709) 2,000
Scarborough (Internal Trip) 692,000
Source: 2011 Transportation Tomorrow Survey
Figures Rounded
Ridership
โ€ข Ridership thresholds are not the primary consideration in choosing
technology when extending existing lines
โ€“ High ridership at the end of a line would mean crowding further along
โ€ข Donโ€™t plan for maximum ridership at the end of the line
โ€“ Incremental stations should encourage development and ridership in new
areas rather than only respond to existing demand
Peak hour (AM) Boardings at Terminal Stations
10
2,250 Downsview
Source: 2011 TTC Subway Platform Usage Counts
Figures Rounded
7,350 Kipling / Islington
5,850 Kennedy
3,350 Don Mills
12,700 Finch
Note: Islington considered
secondary terminal station
due to Mississauga Transit
connection
Local & Regional Transit Priorities
โ€ข Two overarching priorities for transit planning in
Scarborough:
โ€“ Priority 1 (Regional): Connecting Scarborough Centre to higher
order rapid transit to encourage residential and employment
growth and intensification.
โ€“ Priority 2 (Local): Better serve existing transit riders, improve
access to transit and improve quality of life across Scarborough.
11
12
Assumptions
1. GO RER constructed
2. ECLRT constructed
3. SRT removed
Existing and Possible Scarborough RapidTransit Projects
Priority 1: Connect Scarborough Centre
โ€ข Connect Scarborough Centre to higher-order transit network
to
โ€“ Encourage residential and employment growth in the Centre
โ€“ Improve connections between Scarborough and key destinations
across Toronto and beyond
โ€ข OP: Improving Scarborough Centreโ€™s connectivity is crucial to
its success, particularly improving its Regional Gateway
function
โ€ข Building transit is an ambitious investment whose long-term
return is private development and economic prosperity
โ€ข Supports OP, PPS, Growth Plan and other local and
Provincial planning policies
13
โ€ข Excellent internal and external public transit links are crucial to
improving the accessibility and livability of Scarborough Centre.
โ€ข Scarborough Centre covers a massive area with the potential to
become a vibrant urban node.
14
Scarborough
Centre compared to
Downtown streets
Vision for Scarborough Centre Continued
Priority 1: Connecting Scarborough Centre
15
Principle
Scarborough
Subway
RT
Replacement
Scarborough
LRT
Sheppard
Subway
SheppardE
LRT
Scarborough
MalvernLRT
Ellesmere
BRT
McCowanRd
BRT
Does it connect
Scarborough Centre?
YES YES YES YES NO NO YES YES
Good connectivity to
network
Fast, frequent service
where people want to go
Encouraging
development and jobs
Conclusion Note 1 Note 1 Note 2
Notes
1. Our conclusion that Scarborough Subway performs better than Sheppard Subway due to:
โ€ข Lower capital costs
โ€ข Sheppard adds more riders to the overcrowded Yonge Subway line south of Sheppard
โ€ข A potentially shorter travel time from Scarborough Centre to the downtown
โ€ข Direct connection to Eglinton Crosstown
2. Ellesmere BRT could be developed by Durham Region Transit in the future
โ€ข Low-cost link between Scarborough Centre, UTSC, Downtown Pickering and Downtown Oshawa
Good
Fair
Poor
Scarborough Subway Extension
โ€ข Currently under study
โ€“ TPAP anticipated in 2016
โ€ข Committed funding
โ€ข Stops at Lawrence E,
Scarborough Centre,
Sheppard E
โ€ข Cost: $3.56B*
* Escalated costs to the midpoint of construction
โ€ข Opportunity for fourth
station at Eglinton & Brimley
for additional cost
16
Optimization of SSE
โ€ข Introduction of SmartTrack
โ€ข Reduce length of subway
extension by terminating
at Scarborough Centre
โ€ข Remove stations outside
of Scarborough Centre,
because redevelopment
of the Centre is the key
objective
17
Priority 2: Improve local transit
โ€ข Improve transit connections between local destinations,
services and amenities to:
โ€“ Better serve existing transit riders
โ€“ Attract new transit riders
โ€“ Improve quality of life for Scarborough residents
โ€ข OP: improve transit accessibility for neighbourhoods by
investing in transit service along the Avenues and major
streets โ€“ objective to reduce auto dependency and provide
choice
โ€ข Building transit serves local needs and helps people move
around their neighbourhoods everyday
โ€ข Increase connectivity in disadvantaged neighbourhoods
โ€ข Support for local businesses
18
Priority 2: Improving Local Transit
19
Principle
Scarborough
Subway
RT
Replacement
Scarborough
LRT
Sheppard
Subway
SheppardE
LRT
Scarborough
MalvernLRT
Ellesmere
BRT
McCowanRd
BRT
SmartTrack
Good connectivity to local
destinations and the broader
network
Faster, frequent service to mixed-
use growth areas
Service to Neighbourhood
Improvement Areas (NIA)
Supports local jobs and existing
urban form
Local environment
Conclusion Note 1
Notes
1. Scarborough-Malvern LRT performs particularly well due to:
โ€ข Service to mixed-use Avenues, local destinations and NIAs
โ€ข Network connections
Good
Fair
Poor
Crosstown East
โ€ข 12km along Eglinton E, Kingston, Morningside to Sheppard E
โ€ข EA completed in 2009 (Scarborough-Malvern LRT)
20
โ€ข 19 stops:
โ€ข Avenues - Eglinton E and
Kingston
โ€ข 5 Neighbourhood Improvement
Areas
โ€ข UTSC
โ€ข 2 GO stations - Eglinton and
Guildwood
โ€ข ECLRT Connection
โ€ข Could plan future branches
to Malvern, Port Union,
Highland Creek Village
Optimization of Crosstown East
โ€ข It may be possible to optimize this project to reduce
costs and/or increase benefits
โ€“ May not need to extend to Sheppard if MSF could be
accommodated elsewhere
โ€“ Collaborate with University of Toronto master planning process
โ€“ Stop spacing and service concept should be reviewed
โ€ข Detailed analysis of opportunities is required
โ€“ Benefit/cost
โ€“ Connectivity
โ€“ Travel demand (ridership)
21
22
Optimized Network Map
Optimized Network
โ€ข Potential network includes:
โ€“ Scarborough Subway Extension (express to Scarborough Centre)
โ€“ Crosstown East
โ€ข Detailed analysis of these opportunities is required
โ€“ Benefit/cost
โ€“ Connectivity
โ€“ Travel demand (ridership)
โ€ข If optimized to reduce costs and increase benefits, these projects may
fit within the existing committed funding envelope
โ€ข Additional funding may be required to provide rapid transit to the
Sheppard East corridor, to have a more complete network and serve
northern Scarborough better
23
Comparison of Options
Current Proposals for Scarborough Optimized Network
Key
Destinations
โ€ข Scarborough Centre
โ€ข The Scarborough Hospital
โ€ข Scarborough Centre
โ€ข University of Toronto โ€“ Scarborough and Toronto
Pan-Am Aquatic Centre
Land Use โ€ข Serves employment area at Sheppard
East and McCowan
โ€ข Lawrence/McCowan station outside of
designated growth area and extremely
constrained
โ€ข 8km of LRT along Avenues largely designated for
mixed-use growth
Possible
Extensions
Subway
โ€ข Extend north of Sheppard
Express Subway
โ€ข Extend to Sheppard at McCowan and north of
Sheppard
โ€ข Add future stations at Eglinton/Brimley and
Lawrence/McCowan
LRT
โ€ข Opportunities for future branches in eastern
Scarborough
SmartTrack
Stations
โ€ข Opportunity to move Lawrence Station to subway
if better development potential or negative
impact to SmartTrack operation
24
Comparison of Options โ€“ Planning Considerations
Measure Current Proposals
for Scarborough
Optimized Network
Connectivity People within 500m of stations 13,943 63,961
How many more people can each Scarborough resident
connect to in 45 minutes via transit compared to the base
case?*
32,234 (+6.6%) 46,371 (+9.5%)
Economic
Development
Jobs within 500m of stations 22,875 27,737
How many more jobs can each Scarborough resident connect
to in 45 minutes via transit compared to the base case?* 11,667 (+6.3%) 19,333 (+10.4%)
Hectares of potential redevelopment sites 160 ha 200 ha
How many more people can reach Scarborough Centre in 45
minutes via transit compared to the base case?*
155,640 (+20.3%) 172,280 (+22.5%)
How many more people can reach the Financial District in 45
minutes via transit compared to the base case?*
26,210 (+2.4%) 35,472 (+3.3%)
Educational
Opportunities
How many more people can reach UTSC in 45 minutes via
transit compared to the base case?*
635 (+0.2%) 55,823 (+15.8%)
How many more people can reach Centennial College in 45
minutes via transit compared to the base case?*
21,113 (+5.0%) 32,934 (+7.9%)
25
* Base case seeks to convey todayโ€™s network. Hence it excludes Eglinton Crosstown, Toronto-York Spadina
Subway Extension, Finch West LRT, Hurontario LRT, introduction of new streetcars and incremental
improvements to surface transit routes. The SRT is assumed to be replaced by SSE.
Comparison of Options โ€“ Neighbourhood
Improvement Areas
Measure Current Proposals
for Scarborough
Optimized Network
Transit Access in
Neighbourhood
Improvement Areas
NIAs served directly with stations Woburn Eglinton East
Kennedy Park
Morningside
Scarborough Village
West Hill
Connectivity How many more people can each
Scarborough NIA resident connect to in
45 minutes via transit compared to the
base case?*
50,555
(+9.9%)
88,886
(+17.4%)
Economic development How many more jobs can each
Scarborough NIA resident connect to in
45 minutes via transit compared to the
base case?*
20,242
(+10.1%)
34,848
(+17.5%)
26
* Base case seeks to convey todayโ€™s network. Hence it excludes Eglinton Crosstown, Toronto-York Spadina Subway
Extension, Finch West LRT, Hurontario LRT, introduction of new streetcars and incremental improvements to surface transit
routes. The SRT is assumed to be replaced by SSE.
27
Immediate
Solution

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Briefing: Scarborough Transit Planning Update

  • 1. Briefing: Scarborough Transit Planning Update January2016 Transportation Planning Section | City Planning Division
  • 2. Scarborough โ€ข Largely low density suburban form surrounding Scarborough Centre โ€ข Public transit is predominantly local buses 2 37.2k weekday riders Population 625,000 Density 33.3 people/ha Scarborough Centre 17km from downtown Photo source: Talhamujahid at the English language Wikipedia
  • 3. Existing RapidTransit and 10 Minute Frequent Surface Transit 3 โ€ข Predominantly bus based transit โ€ข Infrequent north- south routes โ€ข Employment areas lack frequent transit service
  • 4. Daily Ridership on Busiest TTC Surface Routes 4 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Ridersperweekday Routes Busiest Routes Outside of Scarborough Busiest Routes in Scarborough โ€ข 8 surface routes in Scarborough have more than 20 000 daily riders Source: 2012 TTC: Ridership Statistics
  • 5. Transit and Urban Form โ€ข Use of land around the transit line should be planned to make use of the transit capacity offered โ€“ Higher capacity & frequent transit can support greater densities by moving more people โ€“ Stations should be planned and designed to be integrated with development โ€“ Areas around stations should be intensified to accommodate more jobs and people within a 5 minute walk of a station 5
  • 6. Golden Mile Focus Area Dufferin Focus Area Yonge-Eglinton Midtown in Focus Kennedy Mobility Hub West Side Mall Focus Area Bayview Focus Area Don Mills Focus Area Mount Dennis Mobility Hub Laird Focus Area GOLDEN MILE BAYVIEW LAIRD DON MILLS KENNEDY WEST SIDE MALL DUFFERIN MOUNT DENNIS EglintonAvenue IntensificationAreas & FocusAreas
  • 7. Existing Travel Patterns forAll Trip Types โ€ข 14% of all trips that both begin and end in Scarborough are made using transit โ€“ Need to increase access โ€ข 6% of all trips that begin in Scarborough end in the downtown, of those, 66% are made using transit โ€“ Fast and frequent connection important 7
  • 8. Existing Transit Travel Patterns Destinations of all transit trips originating in Scarborough 8 48% Scarborough 23% Downtown 24% Rest of Toronto 5% Outside Toronto
  • 9. Key Destinations (all trip types) 9 Key destinations for trips originating in Scarborough Daily Trips Financial District (bounded by University-Queen-Yonge-Lake Shore) 12,500 University of Toronto - St George Campus (Traffic Zone 69) 6,000 York University area (Traffic Zone 391) 5,500 Ryerson University area (Traffic Zone 38) 5,000 Yonge-Eglinton Centre 4,000 Pearson International Airport area (Traffic Zone 3709) 2,000 Scarborough (Internal Trip) 692,000 Source: 2011 Transportation Tomorrow Survey Figures Rounded
  • 10. Ridership โ€ข Ridership thresholds are not the primary consideration in choosing technology when extending existing lines โ€“ High ridership at the end of a line would mean crowding further along โ€ข Donโ€™t plan for maximum ridership at the end of the line โ€“ Incremental stations should encourage development and ridership in new areas rather than only respond to existing demand Peak hour (AM) Boardings at Terminal Stations 10 2,250 Downsview Source: 2011 TTC Subway Platform Usage Counts Figures Rounded 7,350 Kipling / Islington 5,850 Kennedy 3,350 Don Mills 12,700 Finch Note: Islington considered secondary terminal station due to Mississauga Transit connection
  • 11. Local & Regional Transit Priorities โ€ข Two overarching priorities for transit planning in Scarborough: โ€“ Priority 1 (Regional): Connecting Scarborough Centre to higher order rapid transit to encourage residential and employment growth and intensification. โ€“ Priority 2 (Local): Better serve existing transit riders, improve access to transit and improve quality of life across Scarborough. 11
  • 12. 12 Assumptions 1. GO RER constructed 2. ECLRT constructed 3. SRT removed Existing and Possible Scarborough RapidTransit Projects
  • 13. Priority 1: Connect Scarborough Centre โ€ข Connect Scarborough Centre to higher-order transit network to โ€“ Encourage residential and employment growth in the Centre โ€“ Improve connections between Scarborough and key destinations across Toronto and beyond โ€ข OP: Improving Scarborough Centreโ€™s connectivity is crucial to its success, particularly improving its Regional Gateway function โ€ข Building transit is an ambitious investment whose long-term return is private development and economic prosperity โ€ข Supports OP, PPS, Growth Plan and other local and Provincial planning policies 13
  • 14. โ€ข Excellent internal and external public transit links are crucial to improving the accessibility and livability of Scarborough Centre. โ€ข Scarborough Centre covers a massive area with the potential to become a vibrant urban node. 14 Scarborough Centre compared to Downtown streets Vision for Scarborough Centre Continued
  • 15. Priority 1: Connecting Scarborough Centre 15 Principle Scarborough Subway RT Replacement Scarborough LRT Sheppard Subway SheppardE LRT Scarborough MalvernLRT Ellesmere BRT McCowanRd BRT Does it connect Scarborough Centre? YES YES YES YES NO NO YES YES Good connectivity to network Fast, frequent service where people want to go Encouraging development and jobs Conclusion Note 1 Note 1 Note 2 Notes 1. Our conclusion that Scarborough Subway performs better than Sheppard Subway due to: โ€ข Lower capital costs โ€ข Sheppard adds more riders to the overcrowded Yonge Subway line south of Sheppard โ€ข A potentially shorter travel time from Scarborough Centre to the downtown โ€ข Direct connection to Eglinton Crosstown 2. Ellesmere BRT could be developed by Durham Region Transit in the future โ€ข Low-cost link between Scarborough Centre, UTSC, Downtown Pickering and Downtown Oshawa Good Fair Poor
  • 16. Scarborough Subway Extension โ€ข Currently under study โ€“ TPAP anticipated in 2016 โ€ข Committed funding โ€ข Stops at Lawrence E, Scarborough Centre, Sheppard E โ€ข Cost: $3.56B* * Escalated costs to the midpoint of construction โ€ข Opportunity for fourth station at Eglinton & Brimley for additional cost 16
  • 17. Optimization of SSE โ€ข Introduction of SmartTrack โ€ข Reduce length of subway extension by terminating at Scarborough Centre โ€ข Remove stations outside of Scarborough Centre, because redevelopment of the Centre is the key objective 17
  • 18. Priority 2: Improve local transit โ€ข Improve transit connections between local destinations, services and amenities to: โ€“ Better serve existing transit riders โ€“ Attract new transit riders โ€“ Improve quality of life for Scarborough residents โ€ข OP: improve transit accessibility for neighbourhoods by investing in transit service along the Avenues and major streets โ€“ objective to reduce auto dependency and provide choice โ€ข Building transit serves local needs and helps people move around their neighbourhoods everyday โ€ข Increase connectivity in disadvantaged neighbourhoods โ€ข Support for local businesses 18
  • 19. Priority 2: Improving Local Transit 19 Principle Scarborough Subway RT Replacement Scarborough LRT Sheppard Subway SheppardE LRT Scarborough MalvernLRT Ellesmere BRT McCowanRd BRT SmartTrack Good connectivity to local destinations and the broader network Faster, frequent service to mixed- use growth areas Service to Neighbourhood Improvement Areas (NIA) Supports local jobs and existing urban form Local environment Conclusion Note 1 Notes 1. Scarborough-Malvern LRT performs particularly well due to: โ€ข Service to mixed-use Avenues, local destinations and NIAs โ€ข Network connections Good Fair Poor
  • 20. Crosstown East โ€ข 12km along Eglinton E, Kingston, Morningside to Sheppard E โ€ข EA completed in 2009 (Scarborough-Malvern LRT) 20 โ€ข 19 stops: โ€ข Avenues - Eglinton E and Kingston โ€ข 5 Neighbourhood Improvement Areas โ€ข UTSC โ€ข 2 GO stations - Eglinton and Guildwood โ€ข ECLRT Connection โ€ข Could plan future branches to Malvern, Port Union, Highland Creek Village
  • 21. Optimization of Crosstown East โ€ข It may be possible to optimize this project to reduce costs and/or increase benefits โ€“ May not need to extend to Sheppard if MSF could be accommodated elsewhere โ€“ Collaborate with University of Toronto master planning process โ€“ Stop spacing and service concept should be reviewed โ€ข Detailed analysis of opportunities is required โ€“ Benefit/cost โ€“ Connectivity โ€“ Travel demand (ridership) 21
  • 23. Optimized Network โ€ข Potential network includes: โ€“ Scarborough Subway Extension (express to Scarborough Centre) โ€“ Crosstown East โ€ข Detailed analysis of these opportunities is required โ€“ Benefit/cost โ€“ Connectivity โ€“ Travel demand (ridership) โ€ข If optimized to reduce costs and increase benefits, these projects may fit within the existing committed funding envelope โ€ข Additional funding may be required to provide rapid transit to the Sheppard East corridor, to have a more complete network and serve northern Scarborough better 23
  • 24. Comparison of Options Current Proposals for Scarborough Optimized Network Key Destinations โ€ข Scarborough Centre โ€ข The Scarborough Hospital โ€ข Scarborough Centre โ€ข University of Toronto โ€“ Scarborough and Toronto Pan-Am Aquatic Centre Land Use โ€ข Serves employment area at Sheppard East and McCowan โ€ข Lawrence/McCowan station outside of designated growth area and extremely constrained โ€ข 8km of LRT along Avenues largely designated for mixed-use growth Possible Extensions Subway โ€ข Extend north of Sheppard Express Subway โ€ข Extend to Sheppard at McCowan and north of Sheppard โ€ข Add future stations at Eglinton/Brimley and Lawrence/McCowan LRT โ€ข Opportunities for future branches in eastern Scarborough SmartTrack Stations โ€ข Opportunity to move Lawrence Station to subway if better development potential or negative impact to SmartTrack operation 24
  • 25. Comparison of Options โ€“ Planning Considerations Measure Current Proposals for Scarborough Optimized Network Connectivity People within 500m of stations 13,943 63,961 How many more people can each Scarborough resident connect to in 45 minutes via transit compared to the base case?* 32,234 (+6.6%) 46,371 (+9.5%) Economic Development Jobs within 500m of stations 22,875 27,737 How many more jobs can each Scarborough resident connect to in 45 minutes via transit compared to the base case?* 11,667 (+6.3%) 19,333 (+10.4%) Hectares of potential redevelopment sites 160 ha 200 ha How many more people can reach Scarborough Centre in 45 minutes via transit compared to the base case?* 155,640 (+20.3%) 172,280 (+22.5%) How many more people can reach the Financial District in 45 minutes via transit compared to the base case?* 26,210 (+2.4%) 35,472 (+3.3%) Educational Opportunities How many more people can reach UTSC in 45 minutes via transit compared to the base case?* 635 (+0.2%) 55,823 (+15.8%) How many more people can reach Centennial College in 45 minutes via transit compared to the base case?* 21,113 (+5.0%) 32,934 (+7.9%) 25 * Base case seeks to convey todayโ€™s network. Hence it excludes Eglinton Crosstown, Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension, Finch West LRT, Hurontario LRT, introduction of new streetcars and incremental improvements to surface transit routes. The SRT is assumed to be replaced by SSE.
  • 26. Comparison of Options โ€“ Neighbourhood Improvement Areas Measure Current Proposals for Scarborough Optimized Network Transit Access in Neighbourhood Improvement Areas NIAs served directly with stations Woburn Eglinton East Kennedy Park Morningside Scarborough Village West Hill Connectivity How many more people can each Scarborough NIA resident connect to in 45 minutes via transit compared to the base case?* 50,555 (+9.9%) 88,886 (+17.4%) Economic development How many more jobs can each Scarborough NIA resident connect to in 45 minutes via transit compared to the base case?* 20,242 (+10.1%) 34,848 (+17.5%) 26 * Base case seeks to convey todayโ€™s network. Hence it excludes Eglinton Crosstown, Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension, Finch West LRT, Hurontario LRT, introduction of new streetcars and incremental improvements to surface transit routes. The SRT is assumed to be replaced by SSE.

Editor's Notes

  1. Scarborough LRT does not perform as well as RT replacement due to cost SmartSpur performs poorly for level of service due to introduction of transfer OR low frequency Ellesmere BRT performs well due to its low cost