Industry Analysts Caroline Gabriel and Joe Madden present their latest Small Cell Forecasts, explain their underlying methodology and assumptions in turn followed by a challenging Q&A session. Insightful and free from hype. Strongly recommended.
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ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
1. ThinkSmallCell
Webinar
Series
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Spotlight
David
Chambers
Founder
and
Senior
Analyst
ThinkSmallCell
Caroline
Gabriel
Head
of
Research
Maravedis-‐Rethink
Joe
Madden
Founder
and
Principal
Analyst
Mobile
Experts
2. Agenda
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Spotlight
• IntroducHon,
David
Chambers,
ThinkSmallCell
• Analyst
Forecasts
and
AssumpHons
• Caroline
Gabriel,
Maravedis-‐Rethink
• Joe
Madden,
Mobile
Experts
• QuesHon
and
Answer
Session
• Conclusion
3. The
different
categories
of
small
cells
Small
Cells
OR
Femtocells
Residen,al
Enterprise
Small
Cells
Urban
Rural
3
4. Planned
vs
Unplanned
3G
Licensed
Spectrum
Planned
(locaHon
pre-‐
determined
prior
to
site
build)
Unplanned
(locaHon
unknown
unHl
operaHonal)
4G/LTE
Licensed
Spectrum
3G
Urban
LTE
Urban
3G
Rural
Small
cells
Enterprise
Small
Cells
ResidenHal
Small
Cells
ResidenHal
Small
Cells
Carrier
Wi-‐Fi
LTE
Rural
Small
cells
Enterprise
Small
Cells
Unlicensed
Spectrum
Enterprise
Wi-‐Fi
ResidenHal
Wi-‐Fi
4
5. Issues
with
small
cell
forecasts?
• Contrast
between
residenHal
femto
vs
planned
Small
Cells
– Tens
of
millions
of
residenHal
femtocells
vs
few
million
Small
Cells
• It’s
always
“next
year”?
– How
confident
can
we
be
that
Small
Cell
uptake
isn’t
a
false
dawn?
• Volume
vs
revenue?
– Which
sector
of
Small
Cells
has
most
revenue
associated
with
it
• What
impact
will
Carrier
Wi-‐Fi
have?
• How
do
Small
Cell
forecasts
differ
between
radio
technologies?
– 3G
UMTS,
3G
CDMA,
4G/LTE,
TD-‐LTE,
MulH-‐Mode
3G/LTE/Wi-‐Fi
5
6. Analyst
Viewpoint
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Spotlight
David
Chambers
Founder
and
Senior
Analyst
ThinkSmallCell
Caroline
Gabriel
Head
of
Research
Maravedis-‐Rethink
Joe
Madden
Founder
and
Principal
Analyst
Mobile
Experts
9. Analyst
Viewpoint
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Spotlight
David
Chambers
Founder
and
Senior
Analyst
ThinkSmallCell
Caroline
Gabriel
Head
of
Research
Maravedis-‐Rethink
Joe
Madden
Founder
and
Principal
Analyst
Mobile
Experts
10.
Mobile
Experts
LLC
§ Founded
in
2002
§ 6
Analysts
+
office
staff
§ Analysts
are
20-‐year
experts
in
their
respective
topics
§ Focused
exclusively
on
mobile
radio
equipment
11. Annual
Small
Cell
Forecast
§ Residential
Femtocells—not
a
compelling
ROI
for
operators
§ Enterprise
Small
Cells
will
grow
with
new
business
models
§ Big
potential
but
slow
growth
due
to
a
new
business
model
§ Carrier-‐deployed
Small
Cells
will
grow
along
with
data
demand
12. Methodology
§ Top-‐down
inputs:
§ 32
mobile
operators
§ Deployment
history
and
plans
§ Bottom-‐up
inputs:
§ 18
semiconductor
suppliers
§ Quarterly
shipment
updates
§ Tracking
by
band,
by
power
level
§ Cost
Modeling:
§ We
compare
TCO
models
with
operators
on
$/bit
to
understand
their
deployment
priorities
13. Audience
Poll
-‐
QuesHon
How
closely
do
these
analyst
forecast
match
your
own
predicHons?
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
Analysts
are
too
opHmisHc/too
high
About
right
Analysts
are
too
pessimisHc
I
have
absolutely
no
idea
Too
many
uncertainHes
to
predict
with
any
confidence
13
15. Q&A
Session
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Spotlight
David
Chambers
Founder
and
Senior
Analyst
ThinkSmallCell
Caroline
Gabriel
Head
of
Research
Maravedis-‐Rethink
Joe
Madden
Founder
and
Principal
Analyst
Mobile
Experts
16. Closing
Comments
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Spotlight
David
Chambers
Founder
and
Senior
Analyst
ThinkSmallCell
Caroline
Gabriel
Head
of
Research
Maravedis-‐Rethink
Joe
Madden
Founder
and
Principal
Analyst
Mobile
Experts
17. More
informaHon
• More
resources/informaHon
at
ThinkSmallCell.com
– Sign
up
for
our
free
monthly
newsleeer
– www.thinksmallcell.com/webinars
• Small
Cell
Forum
documents
– scf.io
• Contact
today’s
analysts
– ThinkSmallCell:
– Mobile
Experts:
– Maravedis-‐Rethink:
www.thinksmallcell.com
www.mobile-‐experts.net
www.maravedis-‐rethink.com
17
18. Our
Next
Webinar
Small
Cells:
Going
to
Volume
• Speakers
include
– Nick
Johnson,
Founder
and
CTO,
ip.access
– Simon
Brown,
CEO,
ip.access
• Thursday
13th
February
2014
– 8am
PST/11am
EST/4pm
GMT/5pm
CET
• heps://aeendee.gotowebinar.com/register/
1481253624939123458