O slideshow foi denunciado.
Seu SlideShare está sendo baixado. ×

ThinkNow 2020 Election Report

Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio

Confira estes a seguir

1 de 18 Anúncio

Mais Conteúdo rRelacionado

Diapositivos para si (20)

Semelhante a ThinkNow 2020 Election Report (20)

Anúncio

Mais de ThinkNow (20)

Mais recentes (20)

Anúncio

ThinkNow 2020 Election Report

  1. 1. 1 2020 Election Report March 2020
  2. 2. 2 ThinkNow conducted a nationwide online survey among American adults 18 to 64 years of age. The survey measured attitudes and preferences regarding the 2020 presidential election, as well as attitudes about the current administration and its policies. Background/Methodology Survey Method Field Timing 303 Hispanics Base Size › Online via ThinkNow Research’s Omnibus Study › February 27th to March 5th, 2020 MethodologyBackground Regional Coverage › National Screening Criteria › 18 to 64 years of age Base Size › 1,500
  3. 3. 3 Key Findings • Our nationwide survey of American adults showed that ethnic groups (Hispanics, African Americans, Asians) are more likely to say they will vote for the Democratic presidential nominee this election period than in 2016. • Currently, about one-third of likely voters say they will vote for the Republican presidential candidate in the November election which represents a 9-point decrease from 2016. This decrease is seen across race/ethnicity. • When it comes to choosing a president, likely Hispanic Democratic voters expressed greater concern than likely Hispanic Republican voters over several issues – most notably, healthcare, climate change and gun laws. • 43% of likely voters approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president. His approval rating among likely Hispanic voters is 30%. • The vast majority of Hispanic Republican likely voters support the current administration’s immigration policies. Hispanic Democrats overwhelmingly oppose these policies. • Most likely voters believe that marijuana should be legalized and that gun laws should be stricter. The majority also feel that the government should be doing more to address climate change. These sentiments are driven by Democrats and to a lesser degree, Hispanics. Key Research Findings
  4. 4. 4 Detailed Findings
  5. 5. 5 Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence) Which party are you/will you register under? Base: Likely Voters Among likely voters of the 2020 election – far more Hispanics, African Americans and Asians will be registered as Democrats than Republicans. More Non-Hispanic Whites will register as Republican. 17% 15% 11% 21% 17% 35% 19% 14% 22% 44% 47% 65% 73% 54% 37% Total Market Hispanics African-Americans Asians Whites Democratic Republican No Party Preference (Independent) (A) (B) (C) (D) (N=955) (N=293) (N=174) (N=151) (N=337) • The proportion of Republicans and Independents is similar across the three ethnic groups. ABC D D D ABC B ‘Likely voters’ are defined as adults who plan to vote in the 2020 presidential election and voted in either the 2018 or 2016 elections 68% 56% 70%A 63% 71%A Likely voters →
  6. 6. 6 The top reason why some Hispanics, African Americans and Asians are not planning to vote in November is that they are not eligible to vote. Why are you not planning to vote? Base: Not Planning to Vote in 2020 Election Total Market Hispanics African- Americans Asians N.H. Whites (A) (B) (C) (D) I'm not interested in politics 25% 14% 17% 11% 33% I'm currently not eligible to vote 18% 37%D 25%D 46%BD 8% I don't think my vote makes a difference 16% 10% 21% 8% 18% I don't like the candidates 16% 7% 15% 12% 20% I didn't know where to vote 2% 2% 5% 3% 2% I'm too busy 6% 11% 8% 2% 3% Other 4% - - 3% 6% Prefer not to answer 14% 18% 8% 16% 12% (n=335) (n=124) (n=42)* (n=64) (n=105) Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence) *Caution: Small base size. Top Reason per segment • For Non-Hispanic Whites, it’s more about a lack of interest in politics and not liking the candidates.
  7. 7. 7 49% 42% 50% 33% About one-third of Likely Voters say they will vote for the Republican presidential candidate in 2020. This would represent a 9% point drop from the 42% who voted Republican in 2016. Who did you vote for in the 2016 election? Who do you plan to vote for in the 2020 election? Base: Likely Voters Another 9% are unsure who they will vote for in 2020 (N=955) 2016 2020 Democratic Candidate 2016 2020 Republican Candidate • Democratic support remains unchanged at this point. • Still, there are 9% of Likely Voters who are unsure who they will vote for in the 2020 election.
  8. 8. 8 The decrease in Republican support is seen across the major race/ethnic groups. 27% 15% 31% 51% 19% 11% 22% 43% Hispanics African-Americans Asians N.H. Whites 2016 2020 Republican Candidate Support 2016: Voted Republican 2020: Plan to Vote Republican • Within each group, however, there are some Likely Voters who are undecided. The % who are unsure or prefer not to answer regarding their preference for the 2020 election 10% 7% 15% 12%
  9. 9. 9 When it comes to choosing a president later this year, Democratic voters will place significantly greater importance than Republicans on issues like healthcare and climate change. For Republicans, immigration and a strong military will be more important. (A) (B) (N=610) (N=314) Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence) 63% 50% 49% 47% 45% 39% 37% 34% 32% 30% 27% 27% 25% 21% 42% 25% 54% 44% 40% 25% 43% 54% 27% 32% 19% 48% 21% 31% Healthcare Climate Change The economy Social Security Gun Laws Anti-Poverty Programs Taxes Immigration Justice Reform Opioid epidemic LGBTQ Rights Strong Military Legalization of marijuana Trade Policy Likely Democratic Voters Likely Republican Voters B B B B A A When choosing who to vote for President this year, how important will the following issues be to you? • Republicans and Democrats are more in line when it comes to the economy and social security. Base: Total Market Likely Voters % Extremely Important A
  10. 10. 10 63% 58% 57% 55% 49% 47% 46% 46% 39% 33% 32% 32% 28% 26% 43% 24% 45% 49% 33% 46% 34% 27% 25% 27% 19% 30% 24% 31% Healthcare Climate Change Social Security The economy Gun Laws Immigration Taxes Anti-Poverty Programs Justice Reform Opioid epidemic LGBTQ Rights Strong Military Legalization of marijuana Trade Policy Likely Democrat Voters Likely Republican Voters Likely Hispanic Democratic voters expressed greater concern than likely Hispanic Republican voters over several issues – most notably, healthcare, climate change and gun laws. (A) (B) (N=187) (N=55)* Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence) When choosing who to vote for President this year, how important will the following issues be to you? Base: Hispanic Likely Voters % Extremely ImportantB B B B *Caution: Small base size.
  11. 11. 11 If the candidate they currently support does not win the party’s nomination, most will vote for whoever the party chooses as the nominee. If the candidate you support in the primaries does not win their party's nomination what do you plan to do? Base: Likely Voters Total Market Hispanics Likely Democratic Voters Likely Republican Voters Likely Democratic Voters Likely Republican Voters (A) (B) (C) (D) Vote for whoever the party choses as the nominee 69%B 51% 71%B 50% Vote for a candidate from a different party 14% 19% 11% 12% Choose not to vote 2% 4% 3% 20%C Not sure 15% 26%A 15% 18% (N=521) (N=255) (N=187) (N=55)* Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence) 92% of likely Republican voters plan to vote for Donald Trump *Caution: Small base size.
  12. 12. 12 Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Donald Trump’s approval rating sits at 43% among likely voters and 30% among likely Hispanic voters. This does, however, differ considerably by likely Democratic and Republican voters. 3% 2% 5% 78% 15% 52% 19% 83% 43% Likely Democratic Voters Likely Republican Voters All Likely Voters Approve Disapprove Don't know/No opinion (A) (B) (N=521) (N=255) (N=955) Total Market Likely Voters Hispanic Likely Voters (C) (D) (N=187) (N=55)* (N=293) 7% 2% 7% 78% 21% 63% 15% 76% 30% Likely Democratic Voters Likely Republican Voters All Likely Voters A B D C *Caution: Small base size.
  13. 13. 13 Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence) Do you support the current administration's immigration policies? The vast majority of Hispanic Republican likely voters support the current administration’s immigration policies. Hispanic Democrats overwhelmingly oppose these policies. 11% 8% 12% 62% 13% 42% 26% 79% 46% Likely Democratic Voters Likely Republican Voters All Likely Voters Yes No Don't know (A) (B) (N=521) (N=255) (N=955) Total Market Likely Voters Hispanic Likely Voters (C) (D) (N=187) (N=55)* (N=293) 10% 6% 11% 66% 23% 55% 25% 71% 34% Likely Democratic Voters Likely Republican Voters All Likely Voters A B D C *Caution: Small base size.
  14. 14. 14 3% 4% 4% 9% 22% 12% 13% 25% 16% 75% 49% 69% Likely Democratic Voters Likely Republican Voters All Likely Voters Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence) Do you think gun laws should be more, or less strict? About 6-in-10 likely voters believe that gun laws should be stricter. This sentiment is felt stronger among Hispanics (69%). 5% 5% 5% 6% 20% 11% 16% 37% 24% 74% 38% 59% Likely Democratic Voters Likely Republican Voters All Likely Voters More strict The same Less strict Don't know (A) (B) (N=521) (N=255) (N=955) Total Market Likely Voters Hispanic Likely Voters (C) (D) (N=187) (N=55)* (N=293) A B D C A • Among the Total Market, likely Democrat voters are about twice as likely to want stricter gun laws compared to Republicans *Caution: Small base size.
  15. 15. 15 4% 13% 8% 14% 16% 14% 12% 40% 18% 70% 31% 61% Likely Democratic Voters Likely Republican Voters All Likely Voters Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence) What do you think of the Federal Government's policy towards climate change? A slight majority of likely voters believe the government is not doing enough to combat climate change. 6% 13% 10% 9% 26% 14% 15% 30% 20% 71% 31% 55% Likely Democratic Voters Likely Republican Voters All Likely Voters Not doing enough Has it about right Doing too much Don't know (A) (B) (N=521) (N=255) (N=955) Total Market Likely Voters Hispanic Likely Voters (C) (D) (N=187) (N=55)* (N=293) A B D C A A • Democrats and Republicans are clearly divided on this issue. *Caution: Small base size.
  16. 16. 16 Letters indicate statistically significant difference (95% confidence) Do you think the Federal government should legalize Marijuana? Most likely voters are in favor of the federal government legalizing marijuana. Support is significantly stronger among Democrats than Republicans. 8% 12% 11% 25% 41% 32% 68% 48% 58% Likely Democratic Voters Likely Republican Voters All Likely Voters Yes No Don't know (A) (B) (N=521) (N=255) (N=955) Total Market Likely Voters Hispanic Likely Voters (C) (D) (N=187) (N=55)* (N=293) 8% 7% 10% 28% 39% 29% 64% 54% 61% Likely Democratic Voters Likely Republican Voters All Likely Voters A B *Caution: Small base size.
  17. 17. 17 Sample Demographics
  18. 18. 18 Total Market Hispanics Race/Ethnicity White 62% -- Hispanics 18% 100% African-Americans 14% -- Asians 6% -- Gender Female 49% 50% Male 49% 47% Gender fluid 1% 1% Non-binary 1% 1% Age Group 18 to 34 38% 45% 35 to 49 30% 32% 50 to 64 32% 23% Median age 40 36 Education High School Grad or Less (Net) 25% 36% Some College (Net) 36% 35% College Grad or More (Net) 39% 29% Median Household Income $59K $46K (N=1,500) (N=500) Sample Profile

×