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Mr. nagaraj meda transgraph

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Mr. nagaraj meda transgraph

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Mr. nagaraj meda transgraph

  1. 1. KNOWLEDGE PARTNER Edible Oils and Oilseeds Forecasts And Trends
  2. 2. Market analysis …an important function TRADE Thank you Teflas, SEA, senior industry veterans, our client Gods for the award and your kind support, patronage. My heartfelt thanks to Dorab sir, Siva kumar sir, Atul sir, Sood sir, Dr. James Fry. • Market analysis is like investing in a diamond, you can get it from few a thousand dollars to a million dollars. • Market analysis is a data, processes, domain, knowledge intensive exercise. • Companies should continuously invest in it. • More important is the process that will integrate the outcomes of the analysis into decision making. • One can make HUGE means huge money by investing in Analysis| Risk management | Technology • Cargill at global level is the classic example.
  3. 3. BMD CPO 3M Futures prices are likely to extend its weakness to place a significant bottom around MYR 2050 by Nov’18, and recover higher for the medium-term towards MYR 2450/2500 in the coming 4 to 6 months. Prices posted a significant low just under MYR 2000 and bounced upwards during the past 2 months to trade above MYR 2300 as of last week, mostly in line with our forecast. What’s on the call for coming months ? 2018 GLOBOIL MUMBAI FORECAST ACTUAL PRICE MOVEMENT Review of Prior Price Forecast: BMD CPO 3M Futures ? 3
  4. 4. • CAD for FY 18-19 is likely to be in line with the previous forecast – Markets feared significantly higher CAD (as much as USD 90 billion) • With primary balance expected to be in negative, FII flows dictated the market dynamics. 2018 Mumbai Globoil: CAD forecast vs Price deviation 4
  5. 5. DUTY HIKE SURCHARGE HIKE 3% TO10% EFFECTIVE SBO – 33% SFO– 27.5% DUTY HIKE EFFECTIVE CRUDE – 38.5% REFINED – 49.5% CSBO 17.5% TO30% CRUDE 35% REFINED 45%CSFO 12.5% TO 25% DUTY HIKE SURCHARGE HIKE 3% TO10% DUTY HIKE SOFT OILS DUTY HIKE EFFECTIVE PALM OIL DUTY CPO – 49.4% RBD – 59.4% DUTY REDUCTION CPO 15% TO 30% 30% TO 44% TO 40% RBD 25% TO 40% 40% TO 54% TO 45% AND 50% • Nov’17 to jan’18 – Palm oil imports increased and soft oil imports dropped after “Nov’17 veg-oil duty hike”. • After Mar’18 hike on palm oil import duty, imports of palm oils almost halved till Jun’18 and soft oil imports jumped. • Palm oil imports rose sharply after “Jun’18 soft oils duty hike” and soft oil imports shrunk significantly till Dec’18. • By Dec’18, total veg-oil port stocks have dropped to lowest in 9 months due to steady decline in soft oil imports. • After Dec’18 duty reduction, imports of palm oil are expected to improve through JFM’19 by almost 26% Q-o-Q. Healthy import parity and demand to replenish port stocks would attract imports of soft oils through JFM’19. India Veg-oil Policy Shifts – Trade Impact 5 597 560 608 673 546 591 557 332 305 364 650 665 610 568 670 750 147 147 107 151 202 163 209 158 177 180 259 245 137 109 131 170 PALM OIL IMPORTS IN KMT CPO RBD 220 274 79 225 134 115 264 397 289 352 312 341 264 204 85 315 129 194 237 171 212 210 295 331 221 139 208 150 157 166 236 300 SOFT OILS IMPORTS IN KMT SOY SUN
  6. 6. CPO Stays Competitive Among The Rival Oils 6 • At India – Kandla, the landed cost of imported CPO continues to be at significant discount below the landed cost of rival soft oils (INR 17000 – 18000/T) as CIF prices of the soft oils maintain wide spreads with CNF price of palm oil, allowing palm oil advantage over its rivals. • At EU - Rotterdam, spread between CPO and its rival oils has been well above the one year average through most of OND’18, allowing palm oil to maintain its sheen among the imported veg oils. 185 157 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 CNF Sun-CPO @ Rotterdam 1-Year Avg. 306 249 0 100 200 300 400 500 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 CNF Rape-CPO @ Rotterdam 1-Year Avg. 146.5137 0 50 100 150 200 250 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 CNF Soy-CPO @ Rotterdam 1-Year Avg. 220 151 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 India CIF Soy-CPO ($/T) 1-Year Avg. 193 179 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 India CIF Sun-CPO ($/T) 1-Year Avg.
  7. 7. Improving Margins – Sign Of Healthy Consumption 7 • Biodiesel margins have improved marginally through Jan’19 after diving southwards through Nov-Dec’18 period on sharply lower energy prices. Improvement of biodiesel margins would boost industrial consumption going forward. • Refining margins have been steady across key origins and at EU, where as policy shifts at end of last year triggered margin drop at India through Jan’19. With smaller duty-differential than earlier, refined products demand could potentially capture part of crude oil import demand. -302.2 -24.9 -418.9 -95.3 19.3 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 Biodiesel Margin at origins & destinations (USD/Ton) FAME-ARA PME Indonesia PME FOB Malaysia RME-ARA SME-US RME-Germany 31.22 19.38 54.82 -0.42 -18.49 -80.00 -60.00 -40.00 -20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 CPO refine margin at origin & destinations (USD/Ton) Malaysia Indonesia EU India local India imported ARA – Amsterdam Rotterdam Antwerp
  8. 8. KNOWLEDGE PARTNER Economy And Currency Global And India
  9. 9. Weakening of Global Expansion: EU • IMF had revised down the 2019 global growth forecasts weighed down by slowdown in Euro Area and China • Downside revision to the global growth forecasts due to US – China trade war and Brexit uncertainty shall continue to keep the markets risk averse 9 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.6 Oct'18 Jan'19 Oct'18 Jan'19 2018 2019 IMF Forecasts for Euro Area Growth 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 Oct'18 Jan'19 Oct'18 Jan'19 2018 2019 IMF Forecasts for India Growth World Economic Outlook Region TG Forecast IMF forecast GDP USD Bln 2017 2018e 2019f 2018e 2019f 2018 2019 Growth World 3.74 3.63 3.47 3.7 3.5 87725 3044 Advanced economies 2.34 2.35 2.05 2.3 2.0 50231 1030 Emerging markets 4.72 4.68 4.70 4.6 4.5 33521 1576 US 2.22 2.80 2.32 2.9 2.5 17834 414 Euro Area 2.53 1.90 1.76 1.8 1.6 14018 247 Japan 1.74 1.10 0.80 0.9 1.1 6227 50 China 6.86 6.59 6.28 6.6 6.2 10773 677 India 6.68 7.47 7.62 7.3 7.5 2778 212 Note: All data in % Change Y/Y, India GDP in FY terms As % of India’s growth contribution (7%) increases, companies have to evolve and align to global practices.
  10. 10. • Growth slowdown in US with the unwinding of fiscal stimulus and also as the federal funds rate temporarily overshoots the neutral rate of interest • Domestic demand remains strong keeping the growth better compared to Euro Area • Weak domestic demand and higher borrowing costs (sovereign yields remain elevated due to fiscal deficit issues) in Italy • Negative impact of street protests and downbeat industrial activity has dampened France growth FED turning dovish amid growth slowdown ECB remains ultra dovish as growth fizzled out Central banks to be accommodative to arrest slowdown 10 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.40 2.40 2.50 2.30 2.90 2.70 2.70 2.90 3.10 3.10 2.90 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 FOMC Projections GDP Fed Funds Rate 1.70 1.70 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.80 1.70 0.00 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.20 -0.20 -0.30 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 ECB Projections GDP 3 Month Euribor Current 3m Euribor rate is -0.3%Current effective fed funds rate is 2.4%
  11. 11. Global crude oil market to shift back into surplus • Production decline in Iran (3 MBpd from 3.8 MBpd) and Venezuela (1.2 MBpd from 1.7 MBpd) is more than offset by the increase in US (11.9 MBpd from 10 MBpd) • As part of their long term plan of energy independence (pullout of armies from middle east), US production will continue to rise due to higher drilled but uncompleted wells (less costs to bring oil) 11 96.40 96.69 97.48 98.91 100.38 94.95 96.13 97.85 98.95 100.10 1.45 0.56 -0.37 -0.04 0.27 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019p Global Oil SnD Total supply (MBpd) Total demand (MBpd) Supply-Demand gap 10.31 4.51 3.07 2.72 1.69 1.48 1.03 10.06 4.35 2.87 2.71 1.63 1.67 1.04 Saudi Iraq UAE Kuwait Nigeria Angola Algeria OPEC Production Targets 2017 2019 0 1 2 3 4 5 JFM-15 AMJ-15 JAS-15 OND-15 JFM-16 AMJ-16 JAS-16 OND-16 JFM-17 AMJ-17 JAS-17 OND-17 JFM-18 AMJ-18 JAS-18 OND-18 Crude Oil Production Trends Iran (MBpd) Venezuela (MBpd) 0 1 2 3 4 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Production at US shale fields (MBpd) Bakken Eagle Ford Permian
  12. 12. ICE Brent Crude Oil Futures prices are likely to hold above USD 56.00 before forming a new high at USD 67.00/70 during JFM’19 and eventually turn negative towards USD 48.00 during AMJ’19. Subsequently a recovery phase would be seen with prices restoring the levels above USD 60 and higher in the long term. Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast 12 Price range Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019 56.00 TO 67.00 48.00 TO 64.00
  13. 13. Improvement in current account but primary deficit persists • Following the sharp fall in crude oil prices, current account prospects have improved • However, capital account continued to remained pressured by the FII outflows (till date outflows USD 13.5 billion) 13 India Balance of Payments (usdbln) Item 2014 – 15 2015 – 16 2016 – 17 2017 – 2018 2018 – 2019p 2019 – 2020p Current Account Merchandise trade balance -144.18 -130.08 -112.44 -160.04 -190.00 -175.00 Invisibles 116.24 107.93 97.15 111.32 125.00 130.00 Total Current Account -27.94 -22.15 -15.30 -48.71 -65.00 -45.00 GDP 2039 2103 2276 2599 2660 2890 CAD as % GDP -1.4% -1.1% -0.7% -1.9% -2.4% -1.6% Capital Account FDI 32.63 36.02 35.61 30.29 35.20 38.00 FPI 40.93 -4.13 7.61 22.11 -10.50 8.00 Others* 16.40 9.24 -6.74 38.99 29.20 14.30 Total Capital Account 89.96 41.13 36.48 91.39 53.90 60.30 Balance of Payments 61.41 17.90 21.55 43.57 -10.80 15.50 Primary Balance 4.69 13.87 20.32 -18.43 -28.80 -7.00 10.19 54.41 -30.00 10.00 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 p 2019-20 p Change in Forex Reserves (usd bln) 86.80 109.16 135.00 115.00 47.6 56.4 68.3 58.5 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19p 2019-20p India Petroleum Import Petroleum and Products Import (USD Bln) Crude Import Basket Price (USD/Bbl) 60.2 61.0 62.1 18.0 21.5 17.4 6.6 9.1 9.5 35.6 30.3 35.2 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19p India FDI Flows (USD Bln) Gross Inflows Repatriation FDI by India Net
  14. 14. India - Budget boost to consumer spending; Deficit a concern • Direct benefit scheme for small and marginal farmers will put an estimated INR 75,000 crore in the system, thereby boosting consumption and reviving the rural economy. • Further, income tax sops for salaries people would add another INR 18,000 crore to the disposable income levels and boost consumer spending. • However, given the recent trends in revenue receipts, the FY20 numbers still looks slightly aggressive and deviation in fiscal consolidation path may weigh on bond markets. Attribute 2017-18 Actuals 2018-19 BE 2018-19 RE 2019-20 BE 1. Total Receipts 21.42 24.42 24.57 27.84 1.1 Revenue Receipts 14.35 17.26 17.30 19.78 1.1.1 Tax Revenue (Net to Centre) 12.42 14.81 14.84 17.05 1.1.2 Non Tax Revenue 1.93 2.45 2.45 2.73 1.2 Capital Receipts 7.07 7.16 7.28 8.07 1.2.1 Recovery of Loans 0.16 0.12 0.13 0.13 1.2.2 Other Receipts 1.00 0.80 0.80 0.90 1.2.3 Borrowings and Other Liabilities 5.91 6.24 6.34 7.04 2. Total Expenditure 21.42 24.42 24.57 27.84 2.1 On Revenue Account 18.79 21.42 21.41 24.48 2.2 On Capital Account 2.63 3.00 3.17 3.36 3. Revenue Deficit (2.1-1.1) 4.44 4.16 4.11 4.70 4. Fiscal Deficit (2-1.1-1.2.1-1.2.2) 5.91 6.24 6.34 7.04 GDP 167.73 187.22 188.41 210.07 Revenue Deficit as % of GDP 2.6% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% Fiscal Deficit as % of GDP 3.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% Source: Union Budget, All units in lakh crore unless mentioned otherwise 14 5.71 4.31 6.71 5.29 7.60 6.20 Corporation Tax Personal Income Tax Direct Tax Collections (INR Lakh Crore) 2017-18 Actuals 2018-19 RE 2019-20 BE 4.43 6.44 7.61 2017-18 Actuals 2018-19 RE 2019-20 BE GST Collections Net to Centre (INR Lakh Crore) 5.91 6.34 7.043.5% 3.4% 3.4% 2017-18 Actuals 2018-19 RE 2019-20 BE Fiscal Deficit Fiscal Deficit (INR Lakh Crore) Fiscal Deficit as % of GDP
  15. 15. • Strong demand (liquidity tightness due to IL&FS) and relaxation of liquidity norms to NBFCs had aided in surge in credit growth to services sector • NPA an issue for industry credit • Widening gap between deposit and credit growth requires build up of liquidity • This may lead to increase in term deposit rates to attract deposits Industry credit growth lags behind Advances by banks remains upbeat • Lower interest rates compared to NSCs led to lower bank deposits • Increase in TDS limit on interest on term deposits from INR 10,000 to 40,000 likely to aid bank deposits Deposit growth lags as demonetization withered off Lagging bank deposit growth compared to advances 15 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Outstanding Bank Credit Growth YoY Industry Services Personal Loans 5.4 7.1 5.9 7.8 7.1 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 till date Advances by scheduled commercial banks (INR Lakh Crore) 0.8 0.7 4.2 0.9 -1.5 7.5 7.2 10.2 5.8 7.1 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 till date Change in Deposits with scheduled commercial banks (INR Lakh Crore) Demand Deposits Time Deposits
  16. 16. Dollar Index (.DXY) is likely to hold below 97.70 on any initial recovery and trade weak towards 94/93.5 in the coming 2 to 3 months ahead of resuming its prevailing bullish trend in the subsequent months. USDINR Spot pair is likely to witness an initial depreciation towards INR 72 to 72.50 and then appreciate towards INR 68.50 in the coming 2 to 3 months ahead of a depreciation phase towards 73.50 in the medium term. US Dollar Index USD/INR Spot EURINR Spot pair is likely to depreciate towards INR 83.50 ahead of appreciating towards INR 77.50 in the coming 2 to 3 months. Subsequently the pair could witness a depreciation towards INR 82 and higher. EUR/INR Spot Currency Price Outlook 16 Price range Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019 72.50 to 70.00 68.50 to 73.50 Price range Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019 83.50 to 79.00 77.50 to 82.00 Price range Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019 97.70 to 95.00 93.50 to 97.50
  17. 17. KNOWLEDGE PARTNER Edible Oils and Oilseeds Global And India 17
  18. 18. 14.35 11.35 18.57 27.96 55.30 66.84 14.45 12.01 19.38 27.30 57.27 70.75 Others CPKO + CNO Sun Oil Rape Oil Soy Oil Palm Oil GLOBAL VEG-OIL OUTPUT @ 201.2 MMT UP 3% Y-O-Y 2018-19 2017-18 Global Veg-Oil Production 2018-19 18 19.7 37.3 9.9 20.2 40.2 10.4 PALM OIL Malaysia Indonesia Others 2018-19 2017-18 9.8 6.1 4.2 2.7 5.2 9.1 6.0 4.1 2.9 5.2 RAPESEED OIL EU China Canada India Others 2018-19 2017-18 10.8 8.5 7.3 16.2 2.8 9.7 11.4 8.3 8.4 15.7 3.2 10.3 SOYBEAN OIL USA Brazil Argentina China EU Others 2018-19 2017-18 5.9 4.6 3.5 1.3 3.3 6.4 4.2 3.9 1.6 3.4 SUNFLOWER OIL Ukraine Russia EU Argentina Others 2018-19 2017-18 +5.8% +3.6% -2.4% +4.4% +5.8% +0.7%
  19. 19. 2018-19 India Oilseed And Veg-oil Production Estimates Rapeseed, 7.30 Soybean, 9.98 Cottonseed, 10.72 Rice bran, 7.57 Groundnut , 4.07 Sunflower, 0.29 2018-19 India Oilseed Production (MMT) 6.55 8.30 11.20 7.53 4.55 0.31 7.30 9.98 10.72 7.57 4.07 0.29 Rapeseed Soybean Cottonseed Rice bran Groundnut Sunflower India Oilseed Production (MMT) 2017-18 2018-19 India 2018-19 total oilseed production estimated 5% up Y-o-Y at 40.9 MMT – mainly coming from soybean and rapeseed. Total veg-oil production is pegged at 8.1 MMT vs 7.8 MMT LY. (Production – 8.1 : Imports – 15.4 : Consumption – 23.5 : Stocks ~ 2) All figures above in MMT 19 2.73 1.49 1.33 1.24 0.69 0.12 3.04 1.61 1.27 1.26 0.58 0.11 MO SBO CSO RBO GNO SFO India Veg-oil Production (MMT) 2017-18 2018-19
  20. 20. Global Veg-oil Import Demand Projected 4% Up Y-o-Y • Palm oil imports are projected to rise across most major importers, with major demand rise coming from India and EU counters. • At EU – Lower domestic rapeseed production, healthy refining margins and steady biodiesel demand to support palm oil import demand. (Softened tone of anti-palm campaign would also come to aid of palm oil) • At India – Significantly large spread of palm oil with soft oils, up to 3% higher domestic consumption than last year and favorable currency/policy setup would boost palm oil imports. – Monsoon uncertainty for 2019 Kharif season would also be a major decisive factor. • Demand likely to stay stable at China and Middle East. 20 8.60 9.10 3.05 3.30 0.31 0.35 2.47 2.65 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 PALM SOY RAPE SUN INDIA TOTAL VEG-OIL IMPORTS PROJECTED TO RISE BY 7% 15.4 MMT 66.84 70.55 9.85 11.14 27.96 27.30 8.16 8.18 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 PALM SOY RAPE SUN GLOBAL VEG-OIL IMPORTS (MMT) 6.22 6.94 8.29 9.02 2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19 PALM OIL TOTAL EU Imports (MMT) 5.11 5.19 7.17 8.16 2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19 PALM OIL TOTAL China Imports (MMT) 4.09 4.20 6.18 6.40 2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19 PALM OIL TOTAL Middle East Imports (MMT)
  21. 21. Global Biodiesel Scenario 7.7 9.2 9.7 10.0 10.6 8.9 10.7 11.3 13.0 14.7 6.7 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.3 29.6 31.1 35.4 38.2 40.7 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Biodiesel Production & Feedstock (MMT) Soyoil Feedstock Palm oil Feestock Rapeseed oil Feedstock Biodiesel Production 26% 30% 28% 26% 26% 30% 34% 32% 34% 36% 23% 22% 20% 18% 18% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Share Of Veg-Oils As Feedstock Soyoil Palm Oil Rapeseed Oil • With projection of 6.5% higher global biodiesel production in 2019, the demand for veg-oil feedstock is projected to rise by 7% in 2019. 21
  22. 22. Focus On Soy Crush Margin and Soy-product Exports 22 32 50 53 50 57 60 62 71 75 67 42 41 4751 64 59 59 54 51 37 21 13 -7 16 26 35 60 82 83 88 101 84 63 41 26 19 31 51 61 Soybean Gross Crushing Margin (USD/MMT) US (USD/MMT) ARG (USD/MMT) BRZ (USD/MMT) 1.07 1.34 4.22 1.12 1.41 3.94 US Brazil Argentina Big-3 CY SBO Export (MMT) 2017 2018 10.6 14.2 25.3 13.6 16.9 21.8 US Brazil Argentina Big-3 CY SBM Export (MMT) 2017 2018 • In 2018 (Jan-Dec), US & Brazil captured a large share of Argentina in SBM export market, but Argentina stood the leading exporter in case of SBO market . • The improved crushing margin, potential settlement of the trade dispute between EU&ARG, Brazil B11 mandate and US Bio-diesel credit expected to keep crushing pace high.
  23. 23. Big-3 Soybean Current Stock And Disappearance 23 55 30 18 66 16 21 US Brazil Argentina Jan’19 Soybean Stock (MMT) 2017 2018 2019 80-83 16-18 21-23 15 13 21 6 8 7 13 13 15 31 33 30 0 0 1 4 1 2 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 JFM AMJ Big-3 Quarterly Soybean Export Projection (MMT) US Brazil Argentina 13 14 15 12 14 15 10 11 12 11 12 12 9 8 9 12 10 13 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 JFM AMJ Big-3 Quarterly Soybean Crush Projection (MMT) US Brazil Argentina • US soybean stocks are projected higher on slow exports last year, while bumper production at Brazil last season result in higher stocks and lower output at Argentina last season is resulting lower stocks. • US exports of beans in JFM’19 are projected up 7% Y-o-Y after US- China truce established at G20 last year. • With fresh supplies from this season harvest, bean exports and crushing at Brazil and Argentina would improve in the coming months.
  24. 24. Soybean Complex Balances 24 BIG-3 SOYBEAN – ALL FIGURES IN MMT PARTICULARS UNITED STATES BRAZIL ARGENTINA 2017/18 2018/19 2017/18 2018/19 2017/18 2018/19 PRODUCTION 120.01 126.12 119.28 116.10 36.50 55.19 DOMESTIC CRUSH 55.91 59.00 44.17 43.50 37.67 43.00 EXPORTS 57.94 52.00 76.20 78.50 2.13 7.83 ENDING STOCKS 11.28 23.17 18.79 9.43 32.33 35.03 BIG-3 SOYOIL – ALL FIGURES IN MMT PARTICULARS UNITED STATES BRAZIL ARGENTINA 2017/18 2018/19 2017/18 2018/19 2017/18 2018/19 PRODUCTION 10.78 11.41 8.52 8.30 7.32 8.35 DOMESTIC CONS. 9.69 10.29 6.92 7.09 3.30 3.10 EXPORTS 1.11 1.14 1.51 1.28 4.00 5.07 ENDING STOCKS 0.92 1.03 0.48 0.47 0.33 0.51 BIG-3 SOYMEAL – ALL FIGURES IN MMT PARTICULARS UNITED STATES BRAZIL ARGENTINA 2017/18 2018/19 2017/18 2018/19 2017/18 2018/19 PRODUCTION 44.64 46.55 34.24 33.33 28.53 33.05 DOMESTIC CONS. 31.51 32.52 17.71 18.13 3.00 3.19 EXPORTS 13.45 14.17 16.07 15.23 25.35 29.80 ENDING STOCKS 0.49 0.66 3.84 3.84 3.58 3.64
  25. 25. Major 4 Veg-Oils Global Balance Sheet All figures in MMT SOY OIL SUN OIL PALM OIL RAPE OIL OVERALL 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 Carryover 3.81 3.99 1.54 1.57 7.73 9.75 4.03 3.65 17.12 18.96 PRODUCTION 55.33 57.26 18.57 19.38 66.84 70.75 27.96 27.30 168.70 174.69 MY Imports 9.85 11.14 8.16 8.18 44.07 45.65 4.39 4.53 66.47 69.50 TOTAL SUPPLY 69.00 72.39 28.26 29.13 118.64 126.15 36.39 35.59 252.29 263.26 MY Exports 10.27 11.28 9.44 9.76 47.70 50.29 4.42 4.47 71.84 75.80 Industrial Cons’n 10.63 11.10 0.87 0.91 16.95 19.39 8.16 7.93 36.61 39.34 Food & Feed Use 44.10 45.88 16.38 16.78 44.24 46.04 20.11 19.87 124.88 128.57 TOTAL DEMAND 54.73 56.98 17.25 17.69 61.19 65.43 28.32 27.80 161.49 167.90 ENDING STOCKS 3.99 4.12 1.57 1.68 9.75 10.43 3.65 3.32 18.96 19.55 S/C Ratio 6.14% 6.04% 5.90% 6.12% 8.95% 9.01% 12.93% 10.29% 8.13% 8.02% 25
  26. 26. PRICE OUTLOOK
  27. 27. BMD CPO 3M Futures prices are proceeding in Triple Combination in Primary wave-Z, and currently proceeding in Intermediate wave-[XX] upwards. Price are likely to hold above MYR 2200 and extend its recovery towards MYR 2400 in the coming 1 to 2 months and eventually turn lower towards MYR 2050/2000 in the subsequent 2 to 3 months. Turnaround Point: An immediate move above MYR 2450 shall turn the medium-term sentiment positive negating the projected weakness. BMD CPO 3M Futures Preferred Count 27 Price range Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019 2220 TO 2400 2320 TO 2020
  28. 28. CPO CNF Spot prices are likely to hold above USD 540 and extend its recovery towards USD 600 in the coming 1 to 2 months and eventually turn lower towards USD 480 over the subsequent 2 to 3 months. MCX CPO 1M Futures prices are likely to hold above USD 545 and extend its recovery towards USD 610 in the coming 1 to 2 months and eventually turn lower towards USD 500 over the subsequent 2 to 3 months CPO CNF, Ex-Kandla MCX CPO 1M Futures 28Indian Palm Spot Markets Price Outlook Price range Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019 540 TO 600 585 TO 480 Price range Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019 545 TO 610 590 TO 500
  29. 29. CME Soybean Futures prices are likely to hold below USc 950 on further gains and turn weak towards USc 820 to USc 800 in the coming 5 to 6 months. CME Soybean Meal futures prices are likely to hold below USD 325 and turn weak towards USD 290 in the coming 5 to 6 months. CME Soybean Futures CME Soymeal Futures CME Soybean Oil futures prices are likely to test USc 31 and turn weak towards USc 27.50 and lower in the coming 5 to 6 months. CME Soyoil Futures CME Soy Complex Price Outlook 29 Price range Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019 325 to 305 317 to 295 Price range Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019 950 to 880 920 to 800 Price range Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019 29 to 31 30.25 to 27.50
  30. 30. Soy CNF, Kandla Spot prices are likely to hold above USD 745 to extend its recovery towards USD 780 in the coming 1 to 2 months and eventually turn lower towards USD 680 over the subsequent 2 to 3 moths. NCDEX Ref. Soy oil Futures prices are likely to hold above USD 745 to extend its recovery towards USD 800 in the coming 1 to 2 months and eventually turn lower towards USD 730 over the subsequent 2 to 3 moths. Soy CNF, Kandla Spot USD/MT NCDEX Ref Soy oil Futures Cont., INR/10Kg 30Indian Soy Spot Markets Price Outlook Price range Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019 745 TO 780 760 TO 680 Price range Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019 745 TO 800 780 TO 730
  31. 31. NCDEX Soybean futures prices are likely to hold below INR 4000 on further extension of gains and turn weak towards INR 3400 in the coming 5 to 6 months. NCDEX Rapeseed Futures prices are likely to stay below INR 4050 on further price recovery and turn weak towards INR 3750 to 3700 in the coming 1 to 2 months ahead of resuming its recovery towards INR 4100 in the subsequent months. NCDEX Indian Soybean 1M Futures NCDEX Rapeseed 1M Futures Indian Oilseeds Price Outlook 31 Price range Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019 4050 to 3730 3750 to 4100 Price range Feb-Mar 2019 Apr-Jul 2019 4000 to 3650 3900 to 3400
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