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FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




Fourth Regulatory Period 2012-2015
January 9th, 2012




Giuseppe Saponaro Chief Financial Officer

Luigi De Francisci Director of Regulatory Affairs




                                                    Investor Relations   1
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




Agenda

 Highlights                               3

 Transmission (Resolution 199/11)         7

 Dispatching (Resolution 204/11)          12

 Quality of Service (Resolution 197/11)   13

 Key Takeaway                             14

 Annexes                                  16




                                               Investor Relations   2
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




Highlights
New Regulatory Framework


Framework                                     The Authority for Electricity and Gas has defined the rules for the 2012-2015 period
                                                      Transmission                Resolution 199/11
                                                      Dispatching                 Resolution 204/11
                                                      Quality of Service          Resolution 197/11



Outcome                                      Recent intense discussions with the Regulator improved final outcome
                                                      Some improvements from the Second Consultation Document (Base WACC
                                                      and regulatory lag)
                                                      Some grey areas still to be clarified




 Full impacts of the review after the disclosure of the Technical Note by the Regulator

Note: Resolutions available at the following link http://www.autorita.energia.it/it/docs/11/delibere-11.htm

                                                                                                                 Investor Relations   3
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




Highlights
Grid Fee Structured in:
                               RAB
1    RAB Remuneration                2012 Tariff RAB based on re-evaluated historical cost
                                           Parametric values prior 2004 + Actual values from 2004 onwards
                                           Deflator2Q10-1Q11: 2.36%
                                     RAB annual roll-over: confirmed adjustment for Deflator and Net Investments
                               WACC
                                     7.4% but interim review on Risk free rate in 2013
                               New Investments
                                     Incentive schemes (+150/200bps on Base WACC) for 12 years
                                     Regulatory Lag remuneration (+100bps on Base WACC)



2    Allowed Opex
                               2012 Opex
                                     2010 reference year
                                     CPIJun10-May11: 2%
                                     Profit sharing: 50/50

                               Annual roll-over:
                                     Adjusted for Inflation and X-factor (Transmission x = 3.0%; Dispatching x = 0.6%)



3   Allowed Depreciation       2012 Depreciation
                                      Enhancements occurred

                               Annual roll-over: coherent with RAB annual adjustment


                                                                                                         Investor Relations   4
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




Highlights
Other Elements of the New Framework


Binomial Tariff         In 2012             Unitary tariff applied, based on volumes
                        From 2013 onwards   Switch to binomial tariff regime, based on volumes and available
                                            capacity




Exposure to             In 2012              Mitigation mechanism on volumes confirmed
Volumes                                        Exposure only if volumes are in the [- 0.5%; +0.5%] range
                                               If volumes are below -0.5%, compensation covered by the Equalization fund

                        From 2013 onwards    Exposure to Volumes limited only to 20% of the Allowed Opex




                                                                                                     Investor Relations   5
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD
)




    Highlights
    Exposure to Volumes under the Binomial Tariff Regime


                                                                    Revenues


                                   From RAB                         From Opex   From D&A

         Capacity                        100%                         80%         100%

         Volumes                             0%                       20%          0%



                          Exposure to Volumes limited to 4% of Total Regulated Revenues



     Note: Preliminary, subject to confirmation by Technical Note

                                                                                           Investor Relations   6
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




Transmission (Resolution 199/11)
Grid Fee General Framework


   1                                                       RAB Remuneration

  RAB tariff 2012                 Re-evaluated Historical Cost + NWC1 +/- Other Adj.

                                        Parametric values prior 2004
                                      Actual values from 2004 onwards
                                                                                                                                Rate of Return

   RAB       Rolling                                                                                                             WACCBT real 7.4%

                                                                                                                            x                     D/E
                                                                                                                                                   KD
                                                                                                                                            Riskfree
                                                                                                                                                         44.44%
                                                                                                                                                          5.69%
                                                                                                                                                          5.24%
  RAB tariff (t-1)         x       Deflator Effect               +      Net Investments year (t-2)                                            Spread
                                                                                                                                    Premium risk (Pr)
                                                                                                                                                          0.45%
                                                                                                                                                             4%
                                                                                                                                          b Levered        0.575
                                        (1+Deflator)                         Capex – Depreciation2                                                 Ke     7.54%
                                                                                                                                          Tax Shield      27.5%
                                                                                           -                                                 Inflation     1.8%
                                                                                                                                           Tax Rate       35.7%
                                Deflator for Gross Investments
                                                                                     Disposals                                      WACCAT nominal         6.0%
                                published by ISTAT: avg. last
                                4Qs available                                                                                       WACCBT nominal         9.4%




 1) Conventionally calculated as 1% of Recognized Invested Capital
 2) In the first year, the recognition of the investment is gross of the first depreciation rate, while before it was net
                                                                                                                                               Investor Relations   7
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




Transmission (Resolution 199/11)
Incentives on New Investments
                                                Category                                            Premium                                     Length

                           Maintenance, investment established
 Capex I1                  by law, work in progress, investments                                               -                                       -
                           different from I2 and I3


                           Development investments
 Capex I2                  different from I3
                                                                                                         150bps                                   12 yrs


           Development investments to reduce
Strategic Value
Capex I3* the congestions the Italian borders
           market zone, or on
                              between Italian                                                            200bps                                   12 yrs
                           (Net transfer Capacity)

 Strategic Value
 Capex I4 Energy Storage Systems                                                                         200bps                                   12 yrs


* In specific limited cases, the Regulator will also include in category I3 investments to reduce congestions inside each Italian market zone

                                                                                                                                                Investor Relations   8
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




Transmission (Resolution 199/11)
Capex Remuneration Schemes

                       Capex prior 2012                                                Capex from 2012 onwards

                                      3rd Period              4th Period                     1
               Incentive                                                             Base WACC   Incentive   Time Lag           Total
                                  Base WACC 6.9%          Base WACC 7.4%                 (A)        (B)         (C)           (A+B+C)


 I1                -                   6.9%                    7.4%             I1    7.4%          -        1.0%             8.4%

  I2           2.0%                    8.9%                    9.4%             I2    7.4%       1.5%        1.0%             9.9%

  I3           3.0%                    9.9%                   10.4%             I3    7.4%       2.0%        1.0%           10.4%

                                                                                I4    7.4%       2.0%        1.0%           10.4%



Note: preliminary understanding of Terna, subject to Regulator’s confirmation
1) Subject to review on Risk free rate in 2013

                                                                                                                 Investor Relations     9
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




Transmission (Resolution 199/11)
Allowed Opex

  2                                          Allowed Opex


                     2010 adjusted opex + profit sharing
    Opex 2012
                     No binomial tariff application



                               Opex
   Opex Rolling                year before       x                 Inflation Effect

                                                                (1 + Inflation* - X Factor**)


                                                           * Inflation: average percentage variation
                                                           of consumer price index (ex-tobacco),
                                                           published by ISTAT (average last 12M
                                                           available)

                                                           ** X-factor = 3.0%




                                                                                                       Investor Relations   10
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




Transmission (Resolution 199/11)
Allowed Depreciation


    3                                       Allowed Depreciation


    Depreciation 2012                Depreciation related to investments up until 2010, including deflator effect




                                                       1
                                      Depreciation
   Depreciation Rolling
                                         year before
                                                           x        Deflator Effect                +   New Depreciation

                                                                      (1+Deflator)                         Capex year (t-2)
                                                                                                               x
                                                               Deflator for Gross Investments
                                                               published by ISTAT (avg. last 4Qs       Depreciation rate
                                                               available)




1) Net of fully depreciated assets

                                                                                                                   Investor Relations   11
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




Dispatching (Resolution 204/11)
Main Elements
Perimeter                                          Energy Operation Activities (“Conduzione”) moved from Transmission to Dispatching1
                                                         Consequent switch of the Allowed Opex pertaining to such activities

                                                         from Transmission to Dispatching

                                                         Recalculation of X-factor accordingly (0.6%)


2012 Unitary Tariff                                   Unitary Tariff
                                                     (0.0526 €c/kWh)

                                                                   x                                        Revenues 167 €mn
                                                                                                                        including
                                                         Volumes
                                                      (318,269 GWh )                               - Partial payment of 2010 dispatching premia (53 €mn)
                                                                                                   - ∆ perimeter related to Energy Operation Activities
                                                                                                   - Incentives on Terna’s ability to predict Daily Energy
                                                                                                     Consumption and Wind Power Plant Production (5 €mn)




1) In resolution n° 11/07 the Regulator redefined the perime ter of Terna’s activities for the Fourth Regulatory Period, moving the Energy Operation Activities from
    Transmission to Dispatching
                                                                                                                                              Investor Relations   12
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




Quality of Service (Resolution 197/11)
Main Elements

                         Confirmed a framework based on premium/penalty mechanism linked to the quality of
Premium/Penalty
                         service on Transmission
Schemes
                           Simplified technical KPIs, now based only on Energy not Supplied
                           Quality targets

                           • Based on historical values
                           • Split between Terna and Terna Rete Italia S.r.l (former Telat).
                               Terna symmetric premium/penalty mechanism 40.000€/MWh

                               Terna Rete Italia S.r.l. asymmetric mechanism for premium (40.000€/MWh) and penalty (gradual
                                increase from 10.000 to 40.000€/MWh)




Impacts
                           Potential Maximum Annual Impacts on Revenues: - 12€mn / + 30€mn
                          Application only if the mismatch between actual/targeted values > +/- 5%
Depreciation


                                                                                                         Investor Relations   13
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




Key Takeaway


                                         Transmission          +      Dispatching
  Grid Fee: 1.63 €bn
                                           ~1.53 €bn                      ~ 0.1 €bn



                                       More long-term visibility gained, but discretionary
                                       elements introduced by the Authority
Framework
                                       Ongoing full assessment of risks
                                       Interim review of Risk-free rate parameter welcomed



What’s Next… New Guidance of further impacts of the new Regulations in the
                  Strategic Plan Presentation, scheduled for February

                                                                                 Investor Relations   14
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




THANK YOU.
QUESTIONS?
Giuseppe Saponaro Chief Financial Officer
Luigi De Francisci Director of Regulatory Affairs
Fourth Regulatory Period
January 9th, 2012




                                                    Investor Relations   15
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




ANNEXES




                            Investor Relations   16
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




Annexes
2012 Transmission Revenues
                           Unitary Tariff             Volumes
                          (0.526 €c/kWh)     x     (293,423 GWh)
2012 Terna
Revenues
                                        Allowed Costs
                                            1.54 €bn


                                   Mitigation Mechanism
                                   on Volumes (+/-0.5%)


                                                                        Defence Plan
       Base Costs                                                   + Extra Remuneration
                                                                   from capex incentives

            x                                                               x
       % of Grid                                                          100%
     owned by Terna
                                          Terna
                                        Revenues
                                                                                Investor Relations   17
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




Annexes
References
 Resolution 199/11 - Transmission
 2012 Allowed Opex                                              Volumes                                   p.20
 Profit sharing: 50%                     p. 9
                                                                Binomial tariff regime                    p.20
 Reference year for actual costs: 2010   p.9 and16
 CPI: 2%                                 p.15-16                Allowed Opex
                                                                X-factor: 3%                              p.31 (TIT art.21)
 Deflator for 2012 Tariffs: 2.36%        p.16
                                                                Base Allowed Return
 Base Allowed Return
                                                                Until 31-12-2011: 7.4%                    p.33 (TIT art.22.2)
 Risk-free Rate: 5.24%                   p.17 and 23 (art.2)
                                                                Starting from 2012: 8.4%                  p.33 (TIT art.22.2)
 Cost of Debt: 5.69%                     p.17 and pag. 34 TIT
                                                                Update: within Nov.30, 2013               p.33 (TIT art. 22.3)
 Tax rate: 35.7%                         p.11 and 18
 Spread costo del debito: 0,45%          p.17 and pag 34 TIT    Incentives on Capex
 Beta: 0.575 confirmed                   p.18                   I1 category: 0%                           p.33 (TIT art.22.5)
 Update: within Nov.30, 2013             p.18 and 23 (art.2)    I2 category: 1.5% for 12 years            p.33 (TIT art.22.5)
                                                                I3 +I4 categories: 2% for 12 years        p.33 (TIT art.22.5)
 Regulatory lag: 1%                      p.11 and 18
                                                                Remuneration scheme on Work In Progress p.36-40 (TIT artt.25-29)
 2012 RAB determination                  p.16 and 17


Resolution 204/11 - Dispatching

Change in perimeter                      p.3
Volumes                                  p.5
Cash payment of 2010 Premia: 53mn        p.8
2012 unitary tariff: 0.0526              p.10
X-factor: 0.6%                           p.10




                                                                                                              Investor Relations   18
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




Disclaimer
ALL COMMENTS AND CALCULATIONS ARE TERNA’S PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES, SUBJECT TO
CONFIRMATION BY THE REGULATOR’S TECHNICAL NOTE, DUE IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

FULL INFORMATION AVAILABLE IN THE RESOLUTION 199/11, 204/11 AND 197/11.


THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY TERNA S.P.A. (THE “COMPANY”) FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE DESCRIBED HEREIN. IN NO
CASE MAY IT BE INTERPRETED AS AN OFFER OR INVITATION TO SELL OR PURCHASE ANY SECURITY ISSUED BY THE COMPANY OR
ITS SUBSIDIARIES.
THE CONTENT OF THIS DOCUMENT HAS A MERELY INFORMATIVE AND PROVISIONAL NATURE AND THE STATEMENTS CONTAINED
HEREIN HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED. NEITHER THE COMPANY NOR ANY OF ITS REPRESENTATIVES SHALL ACCEPT
ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (WHETHER IN NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) ARISING IN ANY WAY FROM THE USE OF THIS DOCUMENT
OR ITS CONTENTS OR OTHERWISE ARISING IN CONNECTION WITH THIS DOCUMENT OR ANY MATERIAL DISCUSSED DURING THE
PRESENTATION.
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR REDISTRIBUTED, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, TO ANY OTHER PERSON. THE
INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN AND OTHER MATERIAL DISCUSSED AT THE CONFERENCE CALL MAY INCLUDE FORWARD-
LOOKING STATEMENTS THAT ARE NOT HISTORICAL FACTS, INCLUDING STATEMENTS ABOUT THE COMPANY’S BELIEFS AND
EXPECTATIONS. THESE STATEMENTS ARE BASED ON CURRENT PLANS, ESTIMATES, PROJECTIONS AND PROJECTS, AND CANNOT BE
INTERPRETED AS A PROMISE OR GUARANTEE OF WHATSOEVER NATURE.
HOWEVER, FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INVOLVE INHERENT RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES AND ARE CURRENT ONLY AT THE
DATE THEY ARE MADE. WE CAUTION YOU THAT A NUMBER OF FACTORS COULD CAUSE THE COMPANY’S ACTUAL RESULTS AND
PROVISIONS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE CONTAINED IN ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT. SUCH FACTORS INCLUDE,
BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO: TRENDS IN COMPANY’S BUSINESS, ITS ABILITY TO IMPLEMENT COST-CUTTING PLANS, CHANGES IN THE
REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT, DIFFERENT INTERPRETATION OF THE LAW AND REGULATION, ITS ABILITY TO SUCCESSFULLY
DIVERSIFY AND THE EXPECTED LEVEL OF FUTURE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES. THEREFORE, YOU SHOULD NOT PLACE UNDUE
RELIANCE ON SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. TERNA DOES NOT UNDERTAKE ANY OBLIGATION TO UPDATE FORWARD-
LOOKING STATEMENTS TO REFLECT ANY CHANGES IN TERNA’S EXPECTATIONS WITH REGARD THERETO OR ANY CHANGES IN
EVENTS.


                                                                                                 Investor Relations   19
FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD




investor.relations@terna.it
+39 06 8313 8106
www.terna.it




                                Investor Relations   20

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Fourth Regulatory Period - Tariffs for 2012-2015

  • 1. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD Fourth Regulatory Period 2012-2015 January 9th, 2012 Giuseppe Saponaro Chief Financial Officer Luigi De Francisci Director of Regulatory Affairs Investor Relations 1
  • 2. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD Agenda Highlights 3 Transmission (Resolution 199/11) 7 Dispatching (Resolution 204/11) 12 Quality of Service (Resolution 197/11) 13 Key Takeaway 14 Annexes 16 Investor Relations 2
  • 3. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD Highlights New Regulatory Framework Framework The Authority for Electricity and Gas has defined the rules for the 2012-2015 period Transmission Resolution 199/11 Dispatching Resolution 204/11 Quality of Service Resolution 197/11 Outcome Recent intense discussions with the Regulator improved final outcome Some improvements from the Second Consultation Document (Base WACC and regulatory lag) Some grey areas still to be clarified Full impacts of the review after the disclosure of the Technical Note by the Regulator Note: Resolutions available at the following link http://www.autorita.energia.it/it/docs/11/delibere-11.htm Investor Relations 3
  • 4. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD Highlights Grid Fee Structured in: RAB 1 RAB Remuneration 2012 Tariff RAB based on re-evaluated historical cost Parametric values prior 2004 + Actual values from 2004 onwards Deflator2Q10-1Q11: 2.36% RAB annual roll-over: confirmed adjustment for Deflator and Net Investments WACC 7.4% but interim review on Risk free rate in 2013 New Investments Incentive schemes (+150/200bps on Base WACC) for 12 years Regulatory Lag remuneration (+100bps on Base WACC) 2 Allowed Opex 2012 Opex 2010 reference year CPIJun10-May11: 2% Profit sharing: 50/50 Annual roll-over: Adjusted for Inflation and X-factor (Transmission x = 3.0%; Dispatching x = 0.6%) 3 Allowed Depreciation 2012 Depreciation Enhancements occurred Annual roll-over: coherent with RAB annual adjustment Investor Relations 4
  • 5. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD Highlights Other Elements of the New Framework Binomial Tariff In 2012 Unitary tariff applied, based on volumes From 2013 onwards Switch to binomial tariff regime, based on volumes and available capacity Exposure to In 2012 Mitigation mechanism on volumes confirmed Volumes Exposure only if volumes are in the [- 0.5%; +0.5%] range If volumes are below -0.5%, compensation covered by the Equalization fund From 2013 onwards Exposure to Volumes limited only to 20% of the Allowed Opex Investor Relations 5
  • 6. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD ) Highlights Exposure to Volumes under the Binomial Tariff Regime Revenues From RAB From Opex From D&A Capacity 100% 80% 100% Volumes 0% 20% 0% Exposure to Volumes limited to 4% of Total Regulated Revenues Note: Preliminary, subject to confirmation by Technical Note Investor Relations 6
  • 7. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD Transmission (Resolution 199/11) Grid Fee General Framework 1 RAB Remuneration RAB tariff 2012 Re-evaluated Historical Cost + NWC1 +/- Other Adj. Parametric values prior 2004 Actual values from 2004 onwards Rate of Return RAB Rolling WACCBT real 7.4% x D/E KD Riskfree 44.44% 5.69% 5.24% RAB tariff (t-1) x Deflator Effect + Net Investments year (t-2) Spread Premium risk (Pr) 0.45% 4% b Levered 0.575 (1+Deflator) Capex – Depreciation2 Ke 7.54% Tax Shield 27.5% - Inflation 1.8% Tax Rate 35.7% Deflator for Gross Investments Disposals WACCAT nominal 6.0% published by ISTAT: avg. last 4Qs available WACCBT nominal 9.4% 1) Conventionally calculated as 1% of Recognized Invested Capital 2) In the first year, the recognition of the investment is gross of the first depreciation rate, while before it was net Investor Relations 7
  • 8. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD Transmission (Resolution 199/11) Incentives on New Investments Category Premium Length Maintenance, investment established Capex I1 by law, work in progress, investments - - different from I2 and I3 Development investments Capex I2 different from I3 150bps 12 yrs Development investments to reduce Strategic Value Capex I3* the congestions the Italian borders market zone, or on between Italian 200bps 12 yrs (Net transfer Capacity) Strategic Value Capex I4 Energy Storage Systems 200bps 12 yrs * In specific limited cases, the Regulator will also include in category I3 investments to reduce congestions inside each Italian market zone Investor Relations 8
  • 9. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD Transmission (Resolution 199/11) Capex Remuneration Schemes Capex prior 2012 Capex from 2012 onwards 3rd Period 4th Period 1 Incentive Base WACC Incentive Time Lag Total Base WACC 6.9% Base WACC 7.4% (A) (B) (C) (A+B+C) I1 - 6.9% 7.4% I1 7.4% - 1.0% 8.4% I2 2.0% 8.9% 9.4% I2 7.4% 1.5% 1.0% 9.9% I3 3.0% 9.9% 10.4% I3 7.4% 2.0% 1.0% 10.4% I4 7.4% 2.0% 1.0% 10.4% Note: preliminary understanding of Terna, subject to Regulator’s confirmation 1) Subject to review on Risk free rate in 2013 Investor Relations 9
  • 10. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD Transmission (Resolution 199/11) Allowed Opex 2 Allowed Opex 2010 adjusted opex + profit sharing Opex 2012 No binomial tariff application Opex Opex Rolling year before x Inflation Effect (1 + Inflation* - X Factor**) * Inflation: average percentage variation of consumer price index (ex-tobacco), published by ISTAT (average last 12M available) ** X-factor = 3.0% Investor Relations 10
  • 11. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD Transmission (Resolution 199/11) Allowed Depreciation 3 Allowed Depreciation Depreciation 2012 Depreciation related to investments up until 2010, including deflator effect 1 Depreciation Depreciation Rolling year before x Deflator Effect + New Depreciation (1+Deflator) Capex year (t-2) x Deflator for Gross Investments published by ISTAT (avg. last 4Qs Depreciation rate available) 1) Net of fully depreciated assets Investor Relations 11
  • 12. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD Dispatching (Resolution 204/11) Main Elements Perimeter Energy Operation Activities (“Conduzione”) moved from Transmission to Dispatching1 Consequent switch of the Allowed Opex pertaining to such activities from Transmission to Dispatching Recalculation of X-factor accordingly (0.6%) 2012 Unitary Tariff Unitary Tariff (0.0526 €c/kWh) x Revenues 167 €mn including Volumes (318,269 GWh ) - Partial payment of 2010 dispatching premia (53 €mn) - ∆ perimeter related to Energy Operation Activities - Incentives on Terna’s ability to predict Daily Energy Consumption and Wind Power Plant Production (5 €mn) 1) In resolution n° 11/07 the Regulator redefined the perime ter of Terna’s activities for the Fourth Regulatory Period, moving the Energy Operation Activities from Transmission to Dispatching Investor Relations 12
  • 13. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD Quality of Service (Resolution 197/11) Main Elements Confirmed a framework based on premium/penalty mechanism linked to the quality of Premium/Penalty service on Transmission Schemes Simplified technical KPIs, now based only on Energy not Supplied Quality targets • Based on historical values • Split between Terna and Terna Rete Italia S.r.l (former Telat). Terna symmetric premium/penalty mechanism 40.000€/MWh Terna Rete Italia S.r.l. asymmetric mechanism for premium (40.000€/MWh) and penalty (gradual increase from 10.000 to 40.000€/MWh) Impacts Potential Maximum Annual Impacts on Revenues: - 12€mn / + 30€mn Application only if the mismatch between actual/targeted values > +/- 5% Depreciation Investor Relations 13
  • 14. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD Key Takeaway Transmission + Dispatching Grid Fee: 1.63 €bn ~1.53 €bn ~ 0.1 €bn More long-term visibility gained, but discretionary elements introduced by the Authority Framework Ongoing full assessment of risks Interim review of Risk-free rate parameter welcomed What’s Next… New Guidance of further impacts of the new Regulations in the Strategic Plan Presentation, scheduled for February Investor Relations 14
  • 15. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD THANK YOU. QUESTIONS? Giuseppe Saponaro Chief Financial Officer Luigi De Francisci Director of Regulatory Affairs Fourth Regulatory Period January 9th, 2012 Investor Relations 15
  • 16. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD ANNEXES Investor Relations 16
  • 17. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD Annexes 2012 Transmission Revenues Unitary Tariff Volumes (0.526 €c/kWh) x (293,423 GWh) 2012 Terna Revenues Allowed Costs 1.54 €bn Mitigation Mechanism on Volumes (+/-0.5%) Defence Plan Base Costs + Extra Remuneration from capex incentives x x % of Grid 100% owned by Terna Terna Revenues Investor Relations 17
  • 18. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD Annexes References Resolution 199/11 - Transmission 2012 Allowed Opex Volumes p.20 Profit sharing: 50% p. 9 Binomial tariff regime p.20 Reference year for actual costs: 2010 p.9 and16 CPI: 2% p.15-16 Allowed Opex X-factor: 3% p.31 (TIT art.21) Deflator for 2012 Tariffs: 2.36% p.16 Base Allowed Return Base Allowed Return Until 31-12-2011: 7.4% p.33 (TIT art.22.2) Risk-free Rate: 5.24% p.17 and 23 (art.2) Starting from 2012: 8.4% p.33 (TIT art.22.2) Cost of Debt: 5.69% p.17 and pag. 34 TIT Update: within Nov.30, 2013 p.33 (TIT art. 22.3) Tax rate: 35.7% p.11 and 18 Spread costo del debito: 0,45% p.17 and pag 34 TIT Incentives on Capex Beta: 0.575 confirmed p.18 I1 category: 0% p.33 (TIT art.22.5) Update: within Nov.30, 2013 p.18 and 23 (art.2) I2 category: 1.5% for 12 years p.33 (TIT art.22.5) I3 +I4 categories: 2% for 12 years p.33 (TIT art.22.5) Regulatory lag: 1% p.11 and 18 Remuneration scheme on Work In Progress p.36-40 (TIT artt.25-29) 2012 RAB determination p.16 and 17 Resolution 204/11 - Dispatching Change in perimeter p.3 Volumes p.5 Cash payment of 2010 Premia: 53mn p.8 2012 unitary tariff: 0.0526 p.10 X-factor: 0.6% p.10 Investor Relations 18
  • 19. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD Disclaimer ALL COMMENTS AND CALCULATIONS ARE TERNA’S PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES, SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION BY THE REGULATOR’S TECHNICAL NOTE, DUE IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. FULL INFORMATION AVAILABLE IN THE RESOLUTION 199/11, 204/11 AND 197/11. THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY TERNA S.P.A. (THE “COMPANY”) FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE DESCRIBED HEREIN. IN NO CASE MAY IT BE INTERPRETED AS AN OFFER OR INVITATION TO SELL OR PURCHASE ANY SECURITY ISSUED BY THE COMPANY OR ITS SUBSIDIARIES. THE CONTENT OF THIS DOCUMENT HAS A MERELY INFORMATIVE AND PROVISIONAL NATURE AND THE STATEMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED. NEITHER THE COMPANY NOR ANY OF ITS REPRESENTATIVES SHALL ACCEPT ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (WHETHER IN NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) ARISING IN ANY WAY FROM THE USE OF THIS DOCUMENT OR ITS CONTENTS OR OTHERWISE ARISING IN CONNECTION WITH THIS DOCUMENT OR ANY MATERIAL DISCUSSED DURING THE PRESENTATION. THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR REDISTRIBUTED, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, TO ANY OTHER PERSON. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN AND OTHER MATERIAL DISCUSSED AT THE CONFERENCE CALL MAY INCLUDE FORWARD- LOOKING STATEMENTS THAT ARE NOT HISTORICAL FACTS, INCLUDING STATEMENTS ABOUT THE COMPANY’S BELIEFS AND EXPECTATIONS. THESE STATEMENTS ARE BASED ON CURRENT PLANS, ESTIMATES, PROJECTIONS AND PROJECTS, AND CANNOT BE INTERPRETED AS A PROMISE OR GUARANTEE OF WHATSOEVER NATURE. HOWEVER, FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INVOLVE INHERENT RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES AND ARE CURRENT ONLY AT THE DATE THEY ARE MADE. WE CAUTION YOU THAT A NUMBER OF FACTORS COULD CAUSE THE COMPANY’S ACTUAL RESULTS AND PROVISIONS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE CONTAINED IN ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT. SUCH FACTORS INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO: TRENDS IN COMPANY’S BUSINESS, ITS ABILITY TO IMPLEMENT COST-CUTTING PLANS, CHANGES IN THE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT, DIFFERENT INTERPRETATION OF THE LAW AND REGULATION, ITS ABILITY TO SUCCESSFULLY DIVERSIFY AND THE EXPECTED LEVEL OF FUTURE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES. THEREFORE, YOU SHOULD NOT PLACE UNDUE RELIANCE ON SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. TERNA DOES NOT UNDERTAKE ANY OBLIGATION TO UPDATE FORWARD- LOOKING STATEMENTS TO REFLECT ANY CHANGES IN TERNA’S EXPECTATIONS WITH REGARD THERETO OR ANY CHANGES IN EVENTS. Investor Relations 19
  • 20. FOURTH REGULATORY PERIOD investor.relations@terna.it +39 06 8313 8106 www.terna.it Investor Relations 20