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Socioeconomic impacts of 5G in Europe

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Presented by Saul Friedner at the UK Spectrum Policy Forum plenary meeting on 21 April 2016

Publicada em: Tecnologia
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Socioeconomic impacts of 5G in Europe

  1. 1. Socioeconomic impacts of 5G in Europe Real Wireless presentation to UK SPF Plenary 21st April 2016 21/04/2016 Company Confidential © Real Wireless Ltd. 2016
  2. 2. Contents • Introduction and background to the study • Overview of the costs and benefits • Spectrum requirements analysis • Policy, regulatory and economic considerations 21/04/2016 2Company Confidential © Real Wireless Ltd. 2016
  3. 3. Introduction and background to the study • Four consortium partners collaborated on EU study with the aim to: • Provide an insight to envisaged ideal scenarios in 2025 if Europe can maximise the benefits of 5G • Qualitative and quantitative forecasts have adopted conservative assumptions. But they focused on the optimum scenario and maximum attainable benefits; • All forecasts are speculative. The analysis is probably most useful in providing an insight to the relative differences in impacts between verticals and environments. Importantly, the study also identifies who is likely to benefit. 21/04/2016 3Company Confidential © Real Wireless Ltd. 2016
  4. 4. Study overview • Gathered inputs from workshops and online study groups • Areas of focus for the study were VERTICALS and ENVIRONMENTS • Workshop participants asked to answer the Big questions on the verticals and environments – Think the Unthinkable • The scenarios provided insights into the key catalysts and barriers 21/04/2016 4Company Confidential © Real Wireless Ltd. 2016 • The team conducted qualitative and quantitative analyses from the inputs • Produced costs and benefits outputs for the verticals and environments • Produced ‘day in the life’ stories across verticals
  5. 5. Qualitative and Quantitative analysis - VERTICALS • Critical Uncertainties Driving The Futures • Business models – Open vs Closed • Culture – Bottom-up changes • Data- Privacy, Ownership. Storage. • Trust/Control - reliability • National/EU strategy – Clear, long term • Spectrum - Harmonization beyond Europe. Economies of scale. • Disruptors – 5 year horizon • Growth of sensor population + Big data • Growth of prosumers • New players • Regulation • Disruptors – 10 year horizon • Urbanisation pop. Growth • Service-driven and sharing economy • Cyber security • Fuel availability • 5G deployment will cost about €56 bn. Approx. €141 per subscriber based on previous cost of mobile technology infrastructure. 21/04/2016 5Company Confidential © Real Wireless Ltd. 2016 Verticals considered in the study: • Automotive • Healthcare • Transport • Utilities
  6. 6. Overview of the costs and benefits - Verticals 21/04/2016 6Company Confidential © Real Wireless Ltd. 2016 Parties/areasthatwillbenefit
  7. 7. Qualitative and Quantitative analysis - ENVIRONMENTS • Smart Cities - There are 468 cities with populations over 100,000 in EU28 Member States. • Transport Improvements and Reductions in Congestion; • Assisting Aging or Less Able Populations; • Reduced Congestion, Emissions and Hydro-carbon consumption. • Non-urban – 20 per cent of the EU population is employed in areas defined as rural, but GDP per capita is only 70 per cent of the EU average (44 per cent for the EN-N12). • Sustainable Capex Spending on Communication Infrastructure; • Supporting ICT-dependent industries and SMEs; • Comprehensively addressing the Digital Divide. • Smart Homes - There are 214 million households across the EU. • Reduced Energy Spending (€) and Emissions Reduction (CO2); • Increased Security, Safety and Access Control; • Assisted Living and Enhanced Medical Support. • Smart Workplaces – There are over 25 million active enterprises across the EU. • Better inventory controls, improved supply chain management; • Flexible solutions to assist aging and less able populations; • Anywhere offices; • Reduced waste through better supply chain management. 21/04/2016 7Company Confidential © Real Wireless Ltd. 2016
  8. 8. Overview of the costs and benefits - Environments 21/04/2016 8Company Confidential © Real Wireless Ltd. 2016 Parties/areasthatwillbenefit
  9. 9. Spectrum requirement analysis • Future capacity requirements and resulting needs for 5G spectrum • Challenging use case based spectrum requirements for 2025 • Policy, regulatory and economic considerations 21/04/2016 9Company Confidential © Real Wireless Ltd. 2016
  10. 10. Future capacity requirements and resulting needs for 5G spectrum • Limited quantities of mobile spectrum available today • Uncertainty in future provision of access to spectrum and capacity (5G seeking new bands above 24 GHz) • Multiple access options; traditional MNO, verticals or new service providers MVNOs within verticals or other sectors • Access to spectrum will depend on supportive regulatory conditions and use of sharing mechanisms 21/04/2016 10Company Confidential © Real Wireless Ltd. 2016 Band (MHz) UL (MHz) DL (MHz) Total (MHz) 800 30 30 60 900 35 35 70 1800 75 75 150 2100 60 60 120 2600 (FDD) 70 70 140 2600 (TDD) 50 50 Total 590 Typical quantities of spectrum amongst MNOs in Europe today
  11. 11. Future capacity requirements and resulting needs for 5G spectrum • Determine how much spectrum can be used for 5G from bands identified from WRC’15 • Identify and address technical and regulatory issues per band in preparation for WRC ‘19 • Each bands introduces new complexities but also new sharing possibilities at all frequencies particularly above 24 GHz • First bands in Europe unlikely to be available for use before 2020 21/04/2016 11Company Confidential © Real Wireless Ltd. 2016 Today
  12. 12. Use cases for modelling spectrum requirements 22/04/2016 12Company Confidential © Real Wireless Ltd. 2016 Use cases derived from ‘day in the life’ stories in 2025 to create challenging scenarios: • Very high multi gigabit applications – up to 200 Gbps for motorway scenario • Low latency, tactile internet • High reliability and availability Use cases quantified to establish snapshot of demand: • Automotive/Transport – Motorway use case • Healthcare – Smart Ambulance, 8K endoscope • Utilities – Smart meter and CCTV
  13. 13. Parameters & calculations for spectrum requirements • Theoretical calculations of the total quantity of spectrum needed to serve the demand: • Subjective total demand from challenging use cases (Mbps) • Assumed spectral efficiency (SE) for different cell types (macro/micro/pico) • Total spectrum requirement (MHz) = Total demand (Mbps) / SE (bps/Hz) • Spectrum requirements divided into sub ranges: • Sub 1 GHz – wide area coverage layer • 1 – 6 GHz – coverage and capacity layer • Above 6 GHz (24 GHz) – ultra dense high speed layer • Different spectrum sharing options applied to total quantities: • No sharing (dedicated x 4 MNOs) • Partial sharing • Fully shared • Results in diagram show: • Spectrum quantities across band range • Spectrum sharing scenario – ‘No sharing’ to ‘fully shared’ • Cumulative total spectrum between not shared and fully shared per sub band 21/04/2016 13Company Confidential © Real Wireless Ltd. 2016
  14. 14. Challenging use case based spectrum requirements for 2025 • In the multi gigabit motorway case, no sharing means 56 GHz is needed, even with 100% sharing the quantity of required spectrum is 14 GHz • Healthcare and utilities require less spectrum than the motorway case but require other spectrum related attributes – ultra reliability and low latency • There is insufficient quantity and availability of spectrum below 6 GHz to support the ultra-high speed applications – but spectrum sharing could unlock access to specific use cases to help minimise the spectrum requirements 21/04/2016 14Company Confidential © Real Wireless Ltd. 2016 Subjective worst case spectrum demand scenarios satisfying uncontended simultaneous use for all users and devices Unfeasible
  15. 15. Policy, regulatory and economic considerations • Identification of new spectrum bands • Timing of spectrum release • Refarming of 2G/3G/4G spectrum to 5G • Studying other options to free up spectrum • Enabling controlled sharing in ‘all’ identified bands • Business case analysis to understand cost and benefits of future spectrum bands • Understand the requirements and challenges of implementing virtual networks i.e. vertical MVNOs 21/04/2016 15Company Confidential © Real Wireless Ltd. 2016 • Support the requirements of multi- tenant MVNO • The need to address regulatory challenges • Common framework enabling cross vertical cooperation – network sharing
  16. 16. Contact Real Wireless PO Box 2218 Pulborough West Sussex RH20 4XB United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 207 117 8514 Web: www.realwireless.biz Views: www.realwireless.biz/category/real-wireless-views/ News: www.realwireless.biz/category/real-wireless-news/ Email: info@realwireless.biz Twitter: twitter.com/real_wireless 21/04/2016 16Company Confidential © Real Wireless Ltd. 2016

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