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Groupon Clones in Vietnam 11.11.11

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Groupon Clones in Vietnam 11.11.11

  1. 1. Groupon Clones in Vietnam Collective Buying via the Web Tai Tran, updated 12.1.2012 Page 1
  2. 2. Terminologies Disclaimer• Idea from Groupon.com, a • Information from this slide is portmanteau derived from solicited from public sources "group" and "coupon" only• Use Groupon logo as • The author does not benefit representative of Groupon & from promoting any service Groupon clones in Vietnam mentioned in this slide• Merchants in this research are • This slide does not necessarily usually retailers reflect the investment view of• CC: credit card the author• COD: cash on delivery • This slide does not necessarily• VP: pay & receive voucher in reflect the investment view of providers office the organization where the author works • Disclosure: the author is not working at a venture capital firm Page 2
  3. 3. Page 3
  4. 4. 13.11.11 97 clones 14 aggregators 8 payment methods Page 4
  5. 5. 35 250 30 200 25 Number of dealsRevenue (VNDb) 150 20 15 100 10 50 5 0 0 HotDeal.vn NhomMua.com CungMua.com MuaChung.vn HotDeal.vn NhomMua.com CungMua.com MuaChung.vn Page 5
  6. 6. Average deal value350300250200150100 50 Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 HotDeal.vn NhomMua.com CungMua.com MuaChung.vnPage 6
  7. 7. TrafficSource: Google AdPlanner, composed by Phi http://twitter.com/p2045i/status/107757376874086400/photo/1 Page 7
  8. 8. Source: internal data tracking 8 Page
  9. 9. • Zing DealA NhomMua.com• few notable sites – (used to) promote Zing Xu (payment system), but was forced to offer free COD – Leader – User base from Zings sites – Free COD • KhuyenMaiVang.vn – Heavy advertising – Experienced sales force from 5giay – Experience from industry investor (Rebate Networks) • 51deal.vn – SMS code: buyer pay after using service =>• Hotdeal.vn buy without painstaking research – Fast follower • Everyday.vn – Free COD – BTA – More mature segment – Rebate unused vouchers after expiry dates• MuaChung.vn • Others notable – Selective deals – CungMuaSam.net – Focus on menu sets => benefits for the restaurants – NecDeal.com – Educate user to use e-payment (VCCorps • Many other are declining: vndoan, SohaPay), intentionally charge COD runhau, supersale, phagia, muale… – User base from VCCorps sites • Why hasnt PeaceSoft, VTC and FPT Online• CungMua.com joined the hype? – Fast follower – My speculation: PeaceSoft wants to focus – Mid-end vendors on its core business - eBay clone, and maybe it is too busy with integrating – Efficiency ChoDienTu to eBay and NganLuongPage 9to – Launch inCard.vn PayPal
  10. 10. Deal aggregators• Aggregate deals from sites• Secondary deal market: buyers who dont consume purchased deals can sell the vouchers• Community building: DealHunter.vn Page 10
  11. 11. Brand equity• NhomMua and MuaChung are leading Page 11
  12. 12. Limitations of clones in Vietnam• Underdeveloped e-payment market => high cost of COD• Lack of financial tricks e.g. trade credit, ACSOI• Limited access to fund raising sources• Mapping, location-based and logistics are not fully utilized Page 12
  13. 13. Exit strategy• Acquired by Groupon.com or Living Social Page 13
  14. 14. Trends of Vietnam Groupon clones• Merchants offering their own Groupon – muachung.dienmay.com – nhanhnhanh.vn• Mobile app & location-based• Aggregator filling the gap from Yelp clones failure• Social shopping Page 14
  15. 15. The Groupon Business Model Page 15
  16. 16. The original Groupon.com Inc (GRPN) More of a Sales company than a technical product. Technology is NOT importantFunding1. Keywell $1m, 20072. New Enterprise Associates $6.8m, 2008 20113. Accel $30m, 2009 • Turn down Googles4. Digital Sky Tech $135m, 2010 $6b acquisition 2010 • IPO $15b • Break-even Q3 2011 • 150 North American • 9625 employees, 4000 markets, 100 EU-Asia- sales South America markets • 35m users • Acquire global clones in 11/2008 EU, South America, Sing, Japan, Russia, • Launched in Chicago, Hongkong, Philippines, founder: Andrew Mason Taiwan, Malay • $1m seed investment • 1500 employees Page 16
  17. 17. DemandsWeb service • We provide mostly free web services • We have large user communities providers • How do we monetize the user base besides selling ad? • We offer products / services Merchants • How do we market besides traditional marketing channels? • How do I discover good deals? Customers • How to I explore good products & services? • How do I explore my connections preference? Page 17
  18. 18. Page 18
  19. 19. Model Ad on Site Discount voucher Offer discount if threshold (min number of buyers) is met • Payment CustomerMerchants Revenue • Pageview (also web users) less Groupon fee Merchants Customer • Offer product/service Bring the voucher to Shop and redeem • Hope to retain the customers product/service Win-Win-Win for all 3 parties Page 19
  20. 20. Win-Win-Win what? Groupon Merchant CustomerBoons • Source of Revenue • Sell big lots • Discounts • Low cost of building • Flexible marketing channel • Explore a website (users • Revenue upfront preferences of focus on deals rather • Some customers do not connections than user redeem the voucher before experience) expiry => revenue without • Share viral costs with offering service. 25% users (users share vouchers are never redeemed the news among ~ $1.2b (approximately themselves via $300m free cash for Facebook, chat) merchants)Disadvant • High payment & • Drive down margin • Pay upfrontages delivery cost (next slides)Risks • Obscure pricing & • Cant handle the flood of • Ambiguous pricing service quality from voucher redeemers • Inconsistent merchants may hurt • No guarantee customers will service quality the reputation of the come back after using the web provider discount Page 20 http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/over_1_billion_in_daily_deal_value_has_disappeared.php
  21. 21. Value proposition to merchants Network of Subscribers Develop Assurance Customer Access to Promotion Consumer Contract to Service toNetwork of and Profile Deal ManageSubscribers Editorial for Activation Deals Merchant Vast Targeted Deal No additional Merchants canDistribution for Distribution No Upfront promotion cost focus on Promotion to and Access to Cost to Run to increase servicingPotential New Customer Deal brand additional and Return Demographics awareness customers Customers Page 21
  22. 22. Industries Groupon focuses on• Small-value items • High-value items• New companies / new branches• High customer acquisition cost – e.g. iPad• Companies without full-pledged retail network – For promotion• Low cost of goods sold (CoGS) campaigns• Travel & spa: flexible CoGS• Restaurants: meal set should be – If offered as deal: attract optimized so that buyers would huge amount of users order more – Given for free as promotion • Users give up personal Beauty Travel information for a chance to win the item Fashion • Marketing for the site F&B Page 22
  23. 23. Page 23
  24. 24. Categories Page 24
  25. 25. Economics of merchant• Merchants need to be consulted on – Number of vouchers – Threshold – Discount rate – Duration of campaign – Deal design • Which items • Menu set Page 25
  26. 26. Customers demographics 65% Vietnamese seek promotions while purchasing. Source: Nielsen Early adopters Likely Urban Facebook females user Disposable Office income professional Page 26
  27. 27. Charges• Groupon.com charges 50% – Full-price service $40 – Discounted price $20 – Groupon retains 50% of $20 – Merchants receive $10 – Groupon.com charges lower fees for less prominent ad space• Most Groupon clones in Vietnam charge 15-30% Full Price $40 Discounted Price $20Merchant receive $14 Groupon retains 30%, or $6 Physical goods: Service: low CoS,fixed, CoGS, profit Selling cost Delivery cost Marketing cost Management cost on large quantity can be profitable Page 27
  28. 28. Payment• COD: cash on delivery – Customer places order, Groupon calls to confirm – Groupon prints voucher – Pay cash at customers site – Groupon hires a logistics service – Some offer free delivery, some charge – 90% orders in Vietnam – High cost• Bank transfer through large banks• ATM, Internet Banking• e-Wallet: NganLuong, MobiVi, Payoo, baokim, Soha Pay• SMS: 51deal, phagia Page 28
  29. 29. FinancialCost Management Business model sustainable?• Underdeveloped e-Payment • Winner takes it all? industry – No• Collecting payment, refund, – This is retail business. There is rebate is too costly space for followers• For smaller sites: if threshold • Issues (criticism) (minimum number of buyers) is – Positive cash flow vs. loss in income statement? not met, the deal becomes – Ponzi scheme? invalid and cost incurs without revenue • The current business model is too costly to sustain • Innovation is needed to further develop this model Page 29
  30. 30. Subscribers Subscribers (m) Customers (m) Groupon sold (m) 120 110 100 90 80 70million 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Page 30
  31. 31. Financial• Basically broke-even Q3 2011• Free cash flow $60m in Q3 2011• Sales growth slowed - a sign of profitability• Cutting marketing expense and acquisitions in Q3 2011• IPO – Valuation $11.4b – Proceeds mostly likely to fund international acquisition and product development• "Media attention" is an intangible asset not reflected on the balance sheet Page 31
  32. 32. Page 32
  33. 33. Page 33
  34. 34. 4.11.2011IPO• Raised $700m• Limit supply to 5%• Valuation $13b• Second largest behind Google (raised $1.7b in 2004)• Target price $16-18• Actual price as chart Source http://finance.yahoo.co m/q/ta?s=GRPN&t=5d&l =on&z=l Page 34
  35. 35. Market Sizes Healthcare 3.7 Household goods & services 4.3 F&B 19.3 Vietnam 2010 (VND trillion) Transport 7 Hotels & caring 4.4 Page 35
  36. 36. Brief Financial Analysis Per Revenue Ratios Sensitivity to market Marketing% SGA% 60 55 Acquisition% Net profit% 50 45 Price per Share100% 40 75% 35 30 50% 25 20 25% 15 10 0% 5 0 -25% 2009 First 3 2010 First 3 quarters quarters 7.5 8.5 9.510.511.512.513.514.5 -50% 2010 2011 MRP -75% Key assumptions-100% • Revenue 2011E 1.5b • The company retains break-even-125% state in Q4 2011If Groupon further cut marketing expense by 35%, • Risk-free rate = 10-year USthe company would immediately be profitable today. government bond rate • Negative beta Page 36
  37. 37. Market Cap ($b) P/E Share Price 24.10.11 Revenue most recent quarter ($b)250225200175150125100755025 590.49 495.46 0 Wal-mart Groupon Google Yahoo! Facebook Target Costco LivingSocial Priceline Netflix Best Buy Amazon Alibaba eBay-25-50 Page 37
  38. 38. Forecast 2011 2012 2013 • Revenue • Revenue • EBITDA 1b 2.28b 1bhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/25/us-groupon-idUSTRE79O97D20111025 Page 38
  39. 39. • Cost to launch a new website isFive forces Threat of low new • Focus on developing sales team • Existing users/communities entrant: from other sites in the same high company: a requirement • Positive cash flow Supplier Buyer power Rivalry: power (merchant): high (customer): low high Numerous merchants Low switching cost Low switching cost For merchants: • Ad on Google (search engine) Substitute: For customers:• Ad/coupon on Facebook (social moderate • Coupon books media) • Direct promotions • Direct promotions Page 39
  40. 40. Comparisons Page 40
  41. 41. New Services• Groupon Store – Self-serving store for merchant – Scalable – Revenue stream without investing in sales force• Groupon Now: what to buy today with Groupon, location-based, serves impulse purchase Page 41
  42. 42. International Expansion CityDeal in SoSasta in Europe India Darberry in Groupoer in Russia South Africa Qpod in Twangoo in Japan Israel Gaopeng in uBuyiBuy in China with Hong Kong partnership from Tencent Page 42
  43. 43. Acquisitions in South East Asia,targeting Vietnam? Page 43
  44. 44. Expansion to South East Asia• Groupon acquired Disdus.com Indonesia• LivingSocial acquires Ensogo Thailand, which also owns DealKeren Indonesia and has strong presence in the Philippines Page 44
  45. 45. Future • Young population, eager to try new experienceOpportunities • Post-crisis frugality • Herd behavior • For the first time, e-commerce goes mass Values • Educate e-payment brought to Vietnam • Attract attention from users, media, investors 2011: educating 2013: market mature market Market size Market size $100m $40m Page 45 (estimation)
  46. 46. RespoSuccess drivers nse to custoQuantitatively consult merchants mers,on logistics: optimal deal size,discount, maximum number of merchvouchers, duration ants & comp Strong etition sale team Strate gy Operations Merch ant mana geme Reduc nt e cost of delive Page 46 ry
  47. 47. What next?• Billionaire after 2 years• A retail, not technology game – How many percent retail market can Groupon take? – The market is like a bottle. Wholesalers are large stones, retailers are pebbles, local grocers are sand and online retails are water. All fill the bottle• Businesses die and new businesses emerge Page 47
  48. 48. What next? (cont) Mobile apps Private Logistics label Delivery Travel Affiliate services Page 48
  49. 49. Research result• A Harvard Business School research – Merchants with discounts is more likely to be profitable – Voucher services grow: customers over-rely on vouchers Page 49
  50. 50. Reference• Eliason, Frezgi, Khan, 2010, Group Buying White Paper, Harvard Business School, accessed from http://www.slideshare.net/HackStartups/group-buying-white-paper• Groupon S-1 Analysis http://www.slideshare.net/MartinNew/groupon-s1-analysis• Groupon Analysis http://www.slideshare.net/elissegaynor/groupon- analysis• Groupon filing to SEC http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1490281/000104746911008598/ a2205238zs-1a.htm• Groupon amnded S-1 filing http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1490281/00010474691100 8207/a2205238zs-1a.htm• Groupons IPO Roadshow http://www.businessinsider.com/groupon- ipo-roadshow-slides-2011-10?op=1 Page 50
  51. 51. Data• Deal statistics http://dealcuatui.com/thong-ke-deal/• Nguoi Viet nghien khuyen mai http://vnexpress.net/gl/kinh- doanh/2011/07/nguoi-viet-nghien-khuyen-mai/• Groupon seeks valuation 5 times 2012 sales http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/25/us- groupon-idUSTRE79O97D20111025 Page 51
  52. 52. Tai Tran1. Blog http://taitran.vn2. LinkedIn http://www.linkedin.com/in/taitran3. Facebook http://www.facebook.com/taitran4. Google+ http://gplus.to/taitran5. LinkHay Money http://www.linkhay.com/tien Page 52