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2017 Market Outlook - International Equity

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2017 Market Outlook - International Equity

  1. 1. INTERNATIONAL EQUITY Chris Alderson Head of International Equity November 17, 2016 2017 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing
  2. 2. 2 The Bull Market No One Loved *Begins on March 9, 2009, which was the low point for the S&P 500 during the financial crisis. Past performance cannot guarantee future results. Sources: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, and MSCI. Returns in USD. +276% +146% +130% +111% 100 150 200 250 300 350 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 IndexLevel(100=3/9/2009) REGIONAL RETURNS March 2009*–September 2016 S&P 500 MSCI Europe MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI Japan “The Death of Equities?”
  3. 3. 3 The Scarcity of Growth As of September 30, 2016 Source: FactSet. 7.1 7.0 6.7 5.1 3.1 3.0 2.5 2.0 0.6 -1.2 -2.4 2.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.4 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 RealGDPGrowthYoY% REAL GDP GROWTH YEAR-OVER-YEAR (%) -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Emerging Markets Europe ex UK Japan United Kingdom United States REGIONAL PROFITS (EPS IN USD) In USD Since Last Cycle Peak (October 2007)
  4. 4. 4 The Hope for Growth As of September 30, 2016 Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour & Welfare; Statistical Office of the European Communities; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Haver Analytics; and Morgan Stanley Research. -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Year-Over-Year%Growth EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY REGION Japan EU US CORPORATE EARNINGS—WHERE NEXT? Falling Rates Rising Earnings Higher Rates Rising Earnings Falling Rates Falling Earnings Higher Rates Falling Earnings MOST BULLISH MOST BEARISH ?
  5. 5. 5 Growth Motoring, Markets Rotating As of September 30, 2016 Past performance cannot guarantee future results. Sources: MSCI, total return indices used for MSCI Value and MSCI Growth. Source for MSCI data: MSCI. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or financial products. This report is not approved, reviewed, or produced by MSCI. 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 MSCI WORLD VALUE—MSCI WORLD GROWTH Total Return Indexed to 100 Value - Growth Mean -1 St Dev -2 St Dev +1 St Dev + 2 St Dev -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% TOTAL RETURN (%) Dec. 31, 2014‒Feb. 11, 2016 Feb. 16, 2016‒Sept. 30, 2016
  6. 6. 6 Economic Inequality and the Protest Vote As of December 31, 2015 Sources: FactSet, Haver Analytics, Standard & Poor’s, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board, Tax Policy Center, Citizens for Tax Justice, and T. Rowe Price. *Equal-weighted total return of U.S. equities (S&P 500) and U.S. 10-year government bonds. 0% 5000% 10000% 15000% 20000% 25000% 30000% 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 CumulativeReturn NAICSU.S.Wagesas%ofGDP Wages as % of GDP Equal-Wtd Equity and Bond Blend* WALL STREET BOOM, MAIN STREET BUST 1950‒2015 BREXIT
  7. 7. 7 Profits—U.S. Economy Versus the S&P 500 Index Sources: Deutsche Bank Research and Haver Analytics. Service industries are: financials; multiline retail; specialty retail; Internet and catalogue retail; diversified consumer services; hotels, restaurants, and leisure; IT services; health care providers; and services. 86% 32% 14% 68% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Share of U.S. Employment Share of S&P 500 Earnings THE U.S. ECONOMY VS. THE S&P 500 INDEX As of October 31, 2015 Service Industries Manufacturing/Goods Producing Industries 65% 43% 42% 34% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2008Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3(E) 2016Q4(E) 2017Q1(E) 2017Q2(E) 2017Q3(E) 2017Q4(E) CumulativeGrowthinOperatingEarningsPerShare EARNINGS GROWTH BY SECTOR 2013—2017E S&P 500 Health Care and Information Technology S&P 500 Financials and Utilities S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples S&P 500 Energy, Industrials, and Materials 2013Q1
  8. 8. 8 Europe’s Pain As of September 30, 2016 Past performance cannot guarantee future results. Source: FactSet. U.S. VS. EUROPEAN EQUITIES RELATIVE PRICE PERFORMANCE (USD) EUROPE AS A % OF WORLD MARKET CAPITALIZATION 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% MSCI Europe Market Cap Relative to World Market Cap 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 S&P Minus Europe Mean -1 St Dev +1 St Dev
  9. 9. 9 European Profits—Why so Bad? Chart is shown for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance of any specific security. Sources: FactSet and MSCI. -26.4% -13.4% -11.6% -6.8% -3.0% 0.4% 1.4% 1.9% 2.4% 3.3% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% MSCI EU: CONTRIBUTION TO EARNINGS CHANGE BY SECTOR October 2008 to August 2016 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 MSCI EU INDEX: PERCENT OF EARNINGS FROM ENERGY, MATERIALS, AND FINANCIALS October 2008‒August 2016 Energy Materials Financials 60% 18%
  10. 10. 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Yen(Trillion) FY TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURNS OF ALL LISTED COMPANIES On a Common Stock Basis 1990‒2017 (Est. for 2016‒2017) Dividends Share Buybacks Japan—What Is Changing As of July 31, 2016 Past performance cannot guarantee future results. Sources: Corporate Reports, Japan Exchange Group, and Empirical Research Partners Analysis. Data exclude financials and utilities. Share buybacks are net of share issuance. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1st Section 2nd Section Mothers JASDAQ Total JPX-Nikkei 400 JAPANESE SHARE OF STOCKS WITH INDEPENDENT DIRECTORS BY LISTING CATEGORY 2014 2015
  11. 11. 11 China—A Hard Landing Within a Soft Landing As of September 30, 2016 Sources: FactSet, Haver Analytics, and China National Bureau of Statistics. 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Year-Over-Year%Change CHINA: REAL GDP GROWTH January 2005–June 2016 51% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% Servicesas%ofGDP CHINA: SERVICES SHARE OF THE ECONOMY 1992‒2Q16
  12. 12. 12 Emerging Markets—Rates Down as Inflation Abates Sources: Various National Statistical Agencies, Haver Analytics, and T. Rowe Price. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year-Over-Year%Change EMERGING MARKET INFLATION January 2010–August 2016 India Brazil China Russia 0% 02% 04% 06% 08% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 EMERGING MARKETS CENTRAL BANK RATES January 2010–September 2016 India Brazil China Russia
  13. 13. 13 Emerging Markets: Uncertainty and Opportunity Sources: FactSet and Empirical Research Partners Analysis. Top quintile compared with sector average. VALUATIONS REFLECT CHANGE AND UNCERTAINTY 12-Month Forward P/E as of September 30, 2016 0 5 10 15 20 Mexico India Philippines U.S.A. Indonesia Malaysia The World Index Chile Europe South Africa Thailand Taiwan Japan Brazil Czech Republic Peru Greece China Qatar United Arab Emirates Colombia Poland Hungary Egypt South Korea Turkey Russia -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 StandardDeviation EMERGING MARKETS VALUATION SPREADS The Top Quintile Compared With the Market Average January 1992‒September 2016 Valuation Spread 1 Standard Deviation -1 Standard Deviation One Standard Deviation Average NARROW DISPARITIES WIDE DISPARITIES
  14. 14. 14 Multiples Have Expanded, but Extremes (or Crises) End a Cycle As of September 30, 2016 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Sources: FactSet and MSCI. Source for MSCI data: MSCI. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or financial products. This report is not approved, reviewed, or produced by MSCI. 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 Price-to-EarningsRatio DEVELOPED VS. EMERGING MARKETS 12-Month Forward P/E January 1996–September 2016 MSCI World LT AVERAGE MSCI EM LT AVERAGE MSCI World Long- Term Average 16.2x MSCI EM Long- Term Average 11.8x 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 P/ENTM/ImpliedP/E EQUITY AND BOND VALUATIONS July 1993–September 2016 US Treasury 10 Year 1/Yield German Bund 10 Year 1/Yield S&P 500 Japan TOPIX MSCI Germany Maximum Value 714
  15. 15. 15 Global Equities: A Fork in the Road As of September 30, 2016 Equity market sentiment has become increasingly divided as the bull market has matured. This is an opportunity for the well-informed stock picker but implies rising market risks. China and the energy sector are experiencing major structural change, adding to the natural bouts of volatility created by an equity market thesis that is in transition. Reasonable valuations, modest global profit growth, and cash-rich balance sheets should provide support to global equities. It is important to temper return expectations, however. Emerging market equity fundamentals are as dispersed as ever and selectivity is critical. Emerging market-listed stocks delivering long-term growth should regain/retain a premium in a lower-growth world. Political uncertainty and popular protest have become mainstream as economic inequality is being called into question. Fiscal stimulus is one potential outcome.
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