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Global Warming
Science New & Views, OLLI Sedona
Bob Haizmann
10/26/16
Global Warming
Effects
• Atmospheric warming
• Ocean warming
• Ocean acidification
• Sea-ice decline
• Sea level increase
...
Evidence
• Ice core samples 800,000 years old show CO2 levels over time
• Earth's surface temperature has increased by 1.4...
• Precession of Earth’s tilt - 26,000 years
• Obliquity - change in Earth’s axial tilt angle - 41,000 years
• Precession o...
Natural cycles change the climate
Milankovitch Cycles
• When these cycles are in phase
they reinforce each other
• Hot and...
CO2 and Global Temperatures –
not dropping as in the past cycles
Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI S...
Energy consumption
Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
Energy consumption
Energy use per capita
Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
Energy consumption
Energy intensity – energy use per $ Gross Domestic Product
Science News & Views presentation by Bob Hai...
Energy consumption
USA - change of energy consumption per GDP over time
• USA is getting more efficient, but not fast enou...
Paris agreement on
climate change
• Sept 23, 2016
• USA with China announce they will formally
ratify the Paris Climate Ag...
CO2 Emissions and Global Temperature Rise
Constrained by Paris Agreement
Goal of Paris agreement
Goal of Paris agreement
C...
USA Corporate Average Fuel Economy Plans
CAFE standards
• 1978
• Workarounds caused 20 years of
stagnation
• Example - lig...
USA Clean Power Plan
• August 3, 2015
• President Obama and EPA announced the Clean
Power Plan
• Reduce CO2 by 30% by 2030...
The spiral of silence
• Few Americans, even those
who care about the carbon
crisis, chat about climate
change with friends...
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Global warming: What we know now

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Bob Haizmann put together this presentation on global warming which others may use to education students or adults on the topic. It includes current data and policy actions (Oct 2016)

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Global warming: What we know now

  1. 1. Global Warming Science New & Views, OLLI Sedona Bob Haizmann 10/26/16
  2. 2. Global Warming Effects • Atmospheric warming • Ocean warming • Ocean acidification • Sea-ice decline • Sea level increase • Extreme weather • Food security Mitigation • Efficiency improvements • Switch to non-fossil fuels • Carbon pricing • Political will Causes • CO2 emissions from burning coal, oil, gas, cement production • CH4 from gas leaks & livestock farming • N2O from fertilizers • Fluorinated gases • Reduced albedo from sea-ice decline • Deforestation Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
  3. 3. Evidence • Ice core samples 800,000 years old show CO2 levels over time • Earth's surface temperature has increased by 1.4 ℉ in the last 100 years, 1.0 ℉ in the last 30 years • Satellite data • increase in global sea levels of 3 mm per year in recent decades • decline in Arctic sea-ice extent 4% per decade; 50% lower in 2012 compared to 1979-200. Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
  4. 4. • Precession of Earth’s tilt - 26,000 years • Obliquity - change in Earth’s axial tilt angle - 41,000 years • Precession of Earth’s orbit around the Sun - 112,000 years • Eccentricity of Earth’s orbit around the Sun– 100,000 years • Tilt of Earth's orbital plane around the Sun - 100,000 years Natural cycles change the climate Milankovitch Cycles Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016 Tilt of Earth’s plane Precession of orbit Precession of tilt
  5. 5. Natural cycles change the climate Milankovitch Cycles • When these cycles are in phase they reinforce each other • Hot and cold phases go through 100,000 yr cycles • We should be entering a cooler phase but this isn’t happening Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
  6. 6. CO2 and Global Temperatures – not dropping as in the past cycles Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016 Last 400,000 years Last 1,000 years CO2 range from ~190 - 280 ppm, 400,000 year average ~240 ppm CO2 now 150 ppm above 400,000 year average
  7. 7. Energy consumption Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
  8. 8. Energy consumption Energy use per capita Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
  9. 9. Energy consumption Energy intensity – energy use per $ Gross Domestic Product Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
  10. 10. Energy consumption USA - change of energy consumption per GDP over time • USA is getting more efficient, but not fast enough • Tremendous economic growth has occurred while getting more efficient Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
  11. 11. Paris agreement on climate change • Sept 23, 2016 • USA with China announce they will formally ratify the Paris Climate Agreement • Together, they create 38 % world’s emissions • USA pledged to cut emissions between 26 and 28 % vs 2005 levels by 2025 • Oct 4, 2106 • Ratification by the EU this month pushed it over a crucial threshold — approval of nations accounting for 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions • Nov 4, 2016 • The Paris Agreement will enter into force Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
  12. 12. CO2 Emissions and Global Temperature Rise Constrained by Paris Agreement Goal of Paris agreement Goal of Paris agreement Current Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
  13. 13. USA Corporate Average Fuel Economy Plans CAFE standards • 1978 • Workarounds caused 20 years of stagnation • Example - light trucks had lower standards….birth of the SUV • 2009 • By 2017 - 35.5 mpg • 2012 • By 2025 – 54.5 mpg Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
  14. 14. USA Clean Power Plan • August 3, 2015 • President Obama and EPA announced the Clean Power Plan • Reduce CO2 by 30% by 2030 by shifting power generation to natural gas or renewables • February 9, 2016 • The Supreme Court stayed implementation of the Clean Power Plan pending judicial review • September 27, 2016 • Lawyers for states & businesses reliant on coal testified to a federal appeals court Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
  15. 15. The spiral of silence • Few Americans, even those who care about the carbon crisis, chat about climate change with friends or family • No one talks, so no one feels comfortable talking • Silence begets silence widening the gap between popular discourse and public opinion, in an ever- descending spiral http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Climate-Spiral-Silence-March-2016.pdf Science News & Views, presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016

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