2016 July GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Higher Education Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through July 2016

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
GRAY
For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: Sales@GrayAssociates.com
Today’s Presenters
§  Bob Atkins – CEO at Gray Associates
─  Bob led Gray’s entry into the education industry and the development of Gray’s proprietary
industry databases and service offerings. He has worked with all of Gray’s education clients,
consulting with CEOs and CMOs on business strategy, pricing, location selection, and program
strategy. He is an expert in business strategy, marketing, sales and high-tech distribution channels.
He has helped AT&T, American Express, HP, IBM, and a number of higher education clients to
develop growth strategies, enter new markets, and build their sales and channel organizations. He
has also led efforts that have eliminated tens of millions of dollars in cost, particularly in sales and
channel management. He is a published author, whose articles have appeared in the Wall Street
Journal, Sales and Marketing Management, and other publications around the world. He received
an MBA, with honors, from Harvard Business School and a BA, magna cum laude, from Harvard
College.
§  Amanda Opperman – Senior Institutional Effectiveness Specialist at Wonderlic
─  Amanda leads initiatives to help institutions with the achievement and measurement of outcomes,
including assessment implementation and effectiveness planning. She began her career in the
field of higher education as a Rhetoric & Writing Studies professor at San Diego State University.
Most recently, she served as the Assistant Dean at California University of Management and
Sciences. She has also served as Vice Chancellor at Southern States University and Academic
Director at Hancock International College.
─  Amanda is currently writing her dissertation on the correlation of cognition and attainment of
learning outcomes as part of her doctoral studies in the San Diego State University/Claremont
Graduate University joint-PhD in Education. She also holds a B.A. and an M.A. in English Literature.

GRAY
Who Is Gray?
GrayData
Employment
BLS/O*NET
Placement Rates
Gray Research
Student Inquiries
GrayReports
Demographics
US Census
Job Postings
CEB TalentNeuron
Programs Price ProjectsPlace
§  Program portfolio
strategy
§  Program Profiles
§  Program development
§  City targeting
§  Location selection
§  Campus consolidation
§  Price elasticity
§  Price positioning
§  Price optimization
§  Business strategy
§  Strategy implementation
§  Acquisition analysis
§  Complex analytics
Advanced Analytics
Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
IPEDS+
Program Evaluation
System
§  Custom Scoring
§  Scorecards
-  By Program
-  By Market
-  100+ Markets
-  1,000+ Programs
Enhanced Crosswalks

GRAY
What Is GrayReports?
GrayReports tracks demand for higher education.
§  Today’s webinar and monthly industry trend reports are free.
§  Paid subscribers have online access to detailed data for their programs and markets.
Over 48 million qualified inquiries
January 2012 to the present
Over 750,000 new inquiries in July 2016
Nearly 200 programs with over 10,000 inquiries
Over 700 metro areas with over 10,000 inquiries

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Agenda
1.  National Inquiry and Conversion Trends
2.  Inquiries and Conversions: Online vs. On-Campus Programs
3.  Views by Program and Segment
4.  Job Postings
5.  Wonderlic - Measuring and Verifying Job Readiness
6.  Summary

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-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
We will share data from 2014, 2015, and 2016

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-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016
Inquiries have decreased an average of 10% year-over-year in 2016.
-10%

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-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
National Inquiries
In July, inquiry volumes dropped 10% year-over-year.
-10% YoY

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Branded Inquiries
Branded inquiries have increased almost every month this year. They jumped 11% in July.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
National Branded Inquiries
+11% YoY

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External Inquiries: Overall Results
External inquiries have fallen every month this year, by an average of 15% year-over-year.
§  In July, external inquiries fell 17%.
-17% YoY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
National External Inquiries

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Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2014 and 2015, conversion rates were volatile.
§  Since Q1 2014, quarterly rates have risen as little as 0% and as much as 21%.
§  They appear to be stabilizing at Q1 2014 levels.
§  Behind the scenes, Branded conversion rates are falling. Conversion rates for External inquiries are flat.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be
counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2.  Total includes unknown source type.
+11%
+21%
+0%
+4%

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Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For April inquiries, total student conversions crashed 22% year-over-year.
§  This is the worst decline so far this year.
§  Conversions of May inquiries have a lot of ground to make up to reach last year’s levels.
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Total Inquiry Conversions
2014 2015 2016
-22% YoY
Immature Months1

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2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.43 $44.79 $42.18
2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75
2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $45.00 $44.48
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
In July, the price of an external inquiry decreased 1% year-over-year.
§  In the first six months of 2016, the average price for paid inquiries is up 2% year-over-year.
Note: PPI means“Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
-1%

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Agenda
4.  Job Postings
6.  Summary

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Inquiries for Online Programs
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeYear-to-date, inquiries for online programs have slipped 3% year-over-year.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
2014 2015 2016-3%

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Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeReversing the trend, June inquiries for online programs jumped 16% year-over-year.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
2014 2015 2016
16% YoY

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Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Conversions for online programs declined 16% in April.
§  Conversions are taking longer, rising from three months to four or five.
§  For example, March inquiries continued to convert; they are now up 7%.
§  April results may improve as conversions continue to drift in.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
2014 2015 2016
Immature Months1
-16% YoY
1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

GRAY
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
In July, inquiries for on-campus higher-education programs dropped 26% year-over-year.
§  The first six months of 2016 have all fallen below year-ago and 2014 levels.
§  Year-over-year, inquiries for on-campus programs are down 14% so far this year.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
2014 2015 2016
-26% YoY

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Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
Conversions for on-campus programs continued to decline—down 18% YoY in March.
§  May, June and July are poised to beat last year.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
2014 2015 2016
-18% YOY
Immature Months1

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Agenda
4.  Job Postings
6.  Summary

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Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
Only one of The Big 5 cities grew year-over-year.
§  Atlanta grew 3% in July.
§  Los Angeles had the largest decline.
-34%
-17%
-41%
6%
-32%
3%
-9%
-14%
-26%
-31%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Atlanta, GA New York, NY Chicago, IL Philadelphia, PA Los Angeles, CA
Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in July Inquiries
2015 YoY % Change2 2016 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

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The Big 5 Programs: June Growth
Only one of The Big Five programs grew in June.
§  Registered Nursing grew 5% year-over-year.
§  Criminal Justice/Police Science remained flat.
§  Medical Assistant dropped 11%.
§  Business Administration dropped over 26% at the Bachelor’s and Associate’s levels.
5%
0%
-11%
-26%
-36%-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Registered Nursing
(ADN, BSN)
Criminal Justice Medical Assistant Business Admin:
Bachelor's +
Business Admin:
Associate's
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
2016 YoY % Change

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-88%
-39%
-3%
-24%
-82%
563%
384%
186%
108%
78%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
Counseling
Psychology
Public
Administration
Medical Insurance
Coding
Health Info./Medical
Records Technology
Computer
Programming
The Fast 5 Programs
2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change
The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
Three new programs showed up in the five fastest-growing programs1.
§  Four of the five programs increased over 100% in July2.
§  Computer Programing and Counseling Psychology are both repeats from last month.
1.  Includes only the top 75 programs (ranked on total inquiry volume since January 2012).
2.  May reflect competitive marketing, or reporting by Gray’s data suppliers.

GRAY
In addition to inquiries, a program evaluation requires data on competition, jobs, wages, and degree fit.
Organizational Leadership: Philadelphia

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-26%
-19%
-17%
-8%
-6%
-5%
-2%
-1%
4%
16%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Associate's
External
Campus
Bachelor's
Certificate
Doctorate
Master's
Unknown Degree
Online
Branded
Quarterly Change in Inquiries
2016/2015 (May to July)
Inquiry Volumes by Category – Trailing Three Months
Only Branded and Online Modality inquiries grew for the quarter.
§  Higher degree levels continue to perform better, but they are now declining.

GRAY
Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months
For the most part, branded inquiry channels outperformed external inquiries.
§  Social Media continued to be the fastest-growing channel.
§  Five diﬀerent branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter.
§  Two external channels grew year-over-year for this period.
-60%
-46%
-39%
-34%
-27%
-22%
-19%
-16%
4%
10%
22%
26%
77%
134%
396%
-100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500%
Branded: All Other Internal
Branded: Display
External: PPL
Branded: Referral
Branded: PPC - Inbound Call
Branded: Offline Media
Branded: Email
Branded: Interactive
External: Affiliate
Branded: PPC
Branded: Website
Branded: Organic
Branded: Inbound Phone
External: Affiliate - PPC
Branded: Social Media
Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel
(April through July YoY)

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Agenda
4.  Job Postings
6.  Summary

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NCES Cross Walks
NCES crosswalks assume a tight link between program of study and occupation.
§  NCES crosswalks a B.A. in English Language and Literature to just two occupations (SOCs).
English Language and
Literature, General
CIP 23.0101
English Teachers
SOC 25-1123
Secondary School Teachers
SOC 25-2031
Source: National Center for Education Statistics: SOC 2010 mapped to CIP

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Reality: Loose Alignment, especially for Liberal Arts
According to the U.S. Census, English majors are actually employed in over 400 SOCs, not two.
1 2
446
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Gray analysis of over 2.0 million records
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
CIPs (Programs) NCES Matched SOCs Actual Employment: SOCs
Count of Programs and Occupations
CIP 23.0101 English Language and Literature, General

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What Do English Majors Do? Teach, go to law school, become CEOs….
$18,840
$22,480
$28,340
$29,700
$39,690
$42,380
$44,180
$44,290
$44,580
$45,520
$59,210
$60,450
$64,150
$65,290
$73,640
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000
Retail salespersons
Other teachers and instructors
Secretaries and administrative assistants
First-line supervisors of retail sales workers
Editors
Writers and authors
Elementary and middle school teachers
Postsecondary teachers
Librarians
Secondary school teachers
Miscellaneous managers
Management analysts
Education administrators
Chief executives and legislators
Lawyers, judges, and other judicial workers
25th-Percentile Annual Wage for Each Occupation
Top 15 Occupations and Wages
Program: BA in English

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Programs with the Fastest Job Postings Growth over the Trailing 12 Months
Pharmacy Technician has the fastest growing job market with a 20% increase in job postings.
§  Healthcare occupations grew the fastest, with six of the top fifteen programs.
§  Nursing programs hold two of the top 15 slots: RN and LVN
6%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
8%
8%
9%
9%
15%
16%
16%
16%
20%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Plumbing
Applied Horticulture
Medical Biller
Computer Networking and Telecom
Landscaping
Computer and Information Systems Security
Computer Engineering, General
Licensed Practical/Vocational Nurse
Painting
Registered Nursing
Pharmacy
Criminal Justice
Special Education
Physical Therapy
Pharmacy Technician
Change in Job Postings By Program
July 2015-July 2016 vs. Prior Year
Year-Over-Year Change
Healthcare
Source: CEB TalentNeuron, Gray Analysis. National Job Postings by CIP Code. Includes only the top 100 programs based on job postings.

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Nursing: Competition for Jobs
There are jobs for nurses…but hundreds of thousands of graduates compete for these jobs.
§  48,000 students completed LVN programs
§  86,000 students completed ADN programs
§  131,000 students completed BSN programs
47,679
86,307
131,281
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
LPN/LVN ADN BSN
2015 Nursing Completions
How can 131,281
BSN graduates
diﬀerentiate
themselves?

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Agenda
4.  Job Postings
6.  Summary

36
Presentation © Wonderlic, Inc. 2016
Measuring and Verifying Job Readiness:
Using competency-based digital badges
to meet the hiring expectations of Allied Health employers

What is a competency?
•  A competency is a specific kind of learning
objective
•  A competency is the capability to apply a set of
related knowledge, skills, and abilities required
to successfully perform critical work functions
•  A competency can be measured through direct
assessment:
•  Direct assessment is based on an analysis of
student behaviors in which they
demonstrate how well they have mastered
learning outcomes

§  Examples of Nursing competencies:
›  Perform first aid to immobilize fractures and
control bleeding
›  Assist patients with range of motion exercises,
using crutches and crutch gaits
›  Measure an infant's height, weight, and head
circumference, and plot on growth chart
What is a competency? cont.

§  Direct assessment items are:
›  Interactive
›  Competency-based
›  Scenario-based
›  Student-centered
§  The best direct assessments are:
›  Employer-vetted
›  Third-party
How can I measure a competency?

How can I measure a competency? cont.

1.6% of employers
agreed that local
colleges provided
them with credentials
that clearly verified
graduates’
knowledge and
skills.”
8.2% of employers
agreed that they find
academic
transcripts, grades,
and GPAs to be
highly reflective of
students’ on-the-job
skills.”
How do employers verify competencies?

83% of employers
stated that they
prefer digital
badges over
academic transcripts
when making hiring
decisions.”
86% of employers
stated that they
would encourage
local educators to
provide students with
competency-based
digital badges.”
How do employers verify competencies?

§  Badges are digital icons awarded
by institutions and/or organizations
that signify accomplishments such
as completion of a project, mastery
of a skill, or marks of experience
What is a digital badge?

Certified Nursing Assistant Seeking Employment
Highly trained nursing assistant with a track record of professional behavior and
exhibited critical thinking skills. I have earned credentials for being a team
player and I have received recognition for my abilities in workplace
communication. Please take some time to review my certifications below. By
clicking on each, you can view the digital badges I have earned to verify my
competency.
Certified Nursing Assistant Extern
Associate’s Degree, Nursing Assistant
2016

Certified Nursing Assistant Seeking Employment
Highly trained nursing assistant with a track record of professional behavior and exhibited critical
thinking skills. I have earned credentials for being a team player and I have received recognition for
my abilities in workplace communication. Please take some time to review my credentials below. By
clicking on the
This Nursing Assistant badge was
awarded for demonstrated
competency in Basic Phlebotomy
based on the criteria below:

This Nursing Assistant badge was
awarded for demonstrated
competency in Basic Phlebotomy
based on the criteria below:

GRAY
Agenda
4.  Job Postings
6.  Summary

GRAY
Key Demand Trends and Observations
The downward trend in inquiries continued in July, but jobs are growing.
§  Inquiry volumes fell 10% but branded and online grew.
§  Conversions of April inquiries were down 22% YoY.
§  Average inquiry prices dropped below $45.
§  Higher degree levels continued to outperform.
§  Social Media continues to be a strong channel.
§  Better data and systems are available to support your decisions.
─  Where to focus your marketing—by program and market
─  What careers to focus on
─  What programs to Stop, Start, Sustain or Grow

GRAY
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836
Amanda Opperman
Senior Institutional Effectiveness Specialist
Wonderlic
Amanda.Opperman@Wonderlic.com
@SpecialOppsEdu

GRAY
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast
Please join us next month!
September Webcast
(August Results)
Thursday, September 22nd at 2:00 PM EDT

2016 July GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

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2016 July GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education