Workshop on climate change and uncertainty from below and above, Delhi. http://steps-centre.org/2016/blog/climate-change-and-uncertainty-from-above-and-below/

1. Uncertainty from within
Sumetee Pahwa Gajjar
IIHS

2. The ASSAR project –
Adaptation at Scale in Semi-Arid Regions
As we understand more about
the global impacts of climate
change, so we need to know
how people in local
communities can effectively
respond and adapt to these
changes.

3. Climate hot-spots and marginalisation
• The semi-arid regions of Africa and Asia are particularly vulnerable to
climate-related impacts and risks.
• These regions already experience harsh climates, adverse environmental change, and a
relative paucity of natural resources.
• People here may be further marginalised by socio-economic challenges, including high levels
of poverty and low levels of development.
• Therefore, it is essential to understand how to empower people, local
organisations and government to adapt to climate change in a way
that minimises their vulnerability and promotes their long-term
resilience.

4. Programme objective
• To achieve this ASSAR is:
• Working with diverse stakeholders in a coordinated manner across 11
countries in southern Africa, eastern Africa, western Africa, and south Asia, to
investigate the root causes of vulnerability.
• Examining vulnerability through an interdisciplinary and gender-sensitive
lens, focusing on both climate and non-climatic stressors.
• Engaging with multiple levels of governance – from local communities to
national and regional institutions – to understand what is needed to
proactively spur widespread, effective and sustained adaptation that has
positive and lasting effects on socio-economic development.
Over its 5-year lifespan, the cross-regional and cross-disciplinary comparison
of research findings will enable ASSAR to develop a unique and systemic
understanding of the processes and factors that impede adaptation and cause
vulnerability to persist.

5. The 3 sub-regions

6. Project Phases
REGIONAL DIAGNOSTICS
Investigate what people in
semi-arid regions currently
know about climate
change, and what they’re
doing to adapt to these
changes.
At the same time, compile
detailed climate
projections to highlight
region-specific
vulnerabilities and
challenges.
Phase 1
REGIONAL RESEARCH
Use the information
gathered from the first
phase, and add to it
through novel case study
research, to explore
strategies for developing
adaptive capacity at
multiple scales - from
individuals to business and
governments - within each
region.
Phase 2
RESEARCH UPTAKE
Promote research into use
across all regions, by
informing adaptation
practices at multiple
scales, and in different
contexts, and enabling
take-up of research
insights in policy and
practice interventions.
Phase 3

7. Regional to sub-national context
• High economic growth in the last two decades
• Service sector driving growth
• Reduction in poverty levels
• Inequality on the rise (Motiram and Naraparaju, 2014; Jayaraj and
Subramanian, 2014)
• Increase in non-farm employment (Lanjouw and Murgai, 2010,
Himanshu et al, 2013)

8. Biophysical changes in the sub-regions
Bangalore Sangamner Bhavani-Moyar
1999 2011 1999 2011 1999 2011 1999 2011 1999 2011 1999 2011
Land-use
classes
Area
(km2)
Area
(%)
Area
(km2)
Area
(%)
Area
(km2)
Area
(%)
Area
(km2)
Area
(%)
Area
(km2)
Area
(%)
Area
(km2)
Area
(%)
Settlements 436.5 5.4 866 10.8 70.7 1.3 80.2 1.5 33 2.1 49 3.2
Agriculture 1158 14.4 2071 25.8 1900 36.2 2090 40 214 13.7 231 15
Forest 2640 32.9 2045 25.5 257 4.9 146.7 2.8 638 41 554 36
Water 210.0 2.6 57.7 0.7 56 1.1 60.5 1.2 64.7 4.2 49.5 3.2
Others 3573 44.6 2978 37.1 2971 56.5 2878 55 608 39.1 674 43
Total 8018 100 8018 100 5256 100 5256 100 1558 100 1558 100

9. Bangalore context
• Services and manufacturing sector driving growth (Sudhira, et al, 2007)
• Resource concerns
o Groundwater replenishment (Sundaresan, 2011)
o Ecological commons have been affected (Nagendra, et al., 2014; Sudhira et
al., 2007)
• Fragile quality of life
o Economy centred around an urban real estate market (Goldman, 2011)
o Location of many informal settlements and environmental and climatic
hazards (Krishna, et al., 2014)
o Peri-urban areas with expansion of urban boundaries (D’Souza et al, 2013)

10. The role of climate science on ASSAR
• Knowledge production for the people, of the people, by the scientists
• Are SARs climate hot-spots?
• How can climate science improve our understanding of vulnerability as
experienced by people in SARs?
• Regional downscaling – CORDEX South Asia v/s the time scale of the project
• How can this knowledge be produced? Who are the scientists and
which are the institutions?
• In South Africa
• In India
• In Pune and Bangalore

11. Scientific knowledge gathering
• Biophysical changes in the sub-regions
• National temperature trends
• National precipitation trends
• Sub-region changes in precipitation regimes
• Sub-region changes in larger climate drivers
• Assessment of climate models
• Future climate

12. What are the key climate patterns of the past and
projected trends for the future?
• Although slightly variable across study sites, the SARs of India have
experienced accelerated warming trends between 1971 and 2007. Mean
daily temperatures have increased marginally faster than the national
average (0.02°C/year).
• Rainfall patterns for the same period have been highly variable across SARs
of India, and the country in general. Across the ASSAR states, the average
summer monsoon rainfall has decreased by 0.01-1.40 mm/year, and the
monsoon onset and rainfall patterns have become more erratic.
• Extreme weather events are expected to increase in most of India and
some semi-arid regions are considered to be high vulnerability areas. The
SARs are particularly prone to flash floods, and have witnessed a
noticeable increase in hot days and heat waves between 1961-2010, lasting
as long as 12–16 days in some areas.

13. What climate scientists and others tell us
What are the expected impacts of future climate in semi-arid areas?
• Critical sectors (e.g., agriculture, forestry, water resources) will be affected as
drought and flood hazards intensify the demand for land, food, water and
livestock forage.
• Heat-stress related impacts will be more severe for rural and urban communities
as thresholds on livestock, crops and infrastructure will be reached sooner.
• India faces rapid and unplanned urbanization, resulting in poor quality of urban
life. First generation migrants are notably vulnerable due to limited access to
social networks and public services and limited livelihood options. However,
marginalized groups already living in the city, are also vulnerable.
• Extreme weather exacerbates existing locational risks through urban flooding,
heat stress and disease dynamics.

14. The role of the broker, mediator
• Multiple partners
• Multiple disciplines
• Multiple sciences
• Multiple institutions
• Multiple places
• Multiple sciences
• Multiple languages
• Co-learning, co-production, co-creation

15. Uncertainty from within
• How we deal with it –
• photo blogs,
• photo essays,
• narratives,
• opinion pieces,
Conversations and relationships

17. Strategies of the marginalised
• Power shifts within the architecture of the institutions – we try to order it,
but it shifts between
• research and practice
• natural and social science
• knowledge production and knowledge management
• Institutions marginalize and empower projects, individuals
• Individuals prioritise institutions, groups, discourses, emails
• Dynamism / uncertainty exists in the lives of the object of study, the people
whom we are set out to reduce the vulnerability of
• Dynamism / uncertainty is exists in how we set out to undertake this study