O slideshow foi denunciado.
Utilizamos seu perfil e dados de atividades no LinkedIn para personalizar e exibir anúncios mais relevantes. Altere suas preferências de anúncios quando desejar.
Enabling plural pathways: uncertainty and responses to
climate change
Ian Scoones
Climate Change and Uncertainty from Abov...
Understanding non-equilibrium systems…..
Climate models and uncertainty.…
• Increasing complexity - more variables, more computing power
• More models (IPCC 5 had ...
Knowledge and politics
• Science (and modelling) has limitations in context of complexity,
uncertainty, indeterminacy….
• ...
unproblematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
Non-linear, non-equilibrium
systems
Human, social factors
chang...
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about possibilities
RISK
UNCERTA...
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about possibilities
RISK
UNCERTA...
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about possibilities
RISK
UNCERTA...
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about possibilities
RISK
UNCERTA...
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
RISK
knowledge about p...
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
IGNORANCE
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
knowledge about...
knowledge
about
likelihoods
problematic UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE
transdisciplinarity,
social learning
civic research,
partici...
knowledge
about
likelihoods
problematic UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE
unproblematic
unproblematic problematic
AMBIGUITYRISK
knowle...
Theme Conventional views Emerging views
Knowledge/power Science as arbiter, single source of
authoritative knowledge; conf...
From above and below….across
• Combining sources of knowledge and understanding -
‘dismantling the divide’ between ‘expert...
Ian Scoones - Enabling plural pathways - uncertainty and responses to climate change
Ian Scoones - Enabling plural pathways - uncertainty and responses to climate change
Próximos SlideShares
Carregando em…5
×

Ian Scoones - Enabling plural pathways - uncertainty and responses to climate change

710 visualizações

Publicada em

Workshop on climate change and uncertainty from below and above, Delhi. http://steps-centre.org/2016/blog/climate-change-and-uncertainty-from-above-and-below/

Publicada em: Ciências
  • Seja o primeiro a comentar

  • Seja a primeira pessoa a gostar disto

Ian Scoones - Enabling plural pathways - uncertainty and responses to climate change

  1. 1. Enabling plural pathways: uncertainty and responses to climate change Ian Scoones Climate Change and Uncertainty from Above and Below 27-28 January 2016 IIC, New Delhi
  2. 2. Understanding non-equilibrium systems…..
  3. 3. Climate models and uncertainty.… • Increasing complexity - more variables, more computing power • More models (IPCC 5 had 50 plus models, from 20 plus groups) – CMIPs (coupled model inter-comparison projects) based on linked Atmospheric-Ocean GCMs • Huge variation compared across model ensembles. But uncertainties exist within as well as between models (shared assumptions, modelling cultures/institutional contexts) – incomplete knowledge throughout • Downscaling from global change to impacts at geographic/field level (e.g. linking to crop production), major inconsistencies…. And even more uncertainty.
  4. 4. Knowledge and politics • Science (and modelling) has limitations in context of complexity, uncertainty, indeterminacy…. • Knowledge not produced independently of framings, assumptions, values and politics – shaped by social experiences/cultures (in labs, in field, in assessment panels, in policy settings) • Multiple knowledges generate different claims of objectivity, legitimacy, authority = debate • Deliberation among different claims, involving diverse groups, essential – and this is political (always).
  5. 5. unproblematic knowledge about likelihoods RISK UNCERTAINTY Non-linear, non-equilibrium systems Human, social factors changing contexts problematic Four dimensions of incertitude – opening up debate risk assessment, prediction cost benefit analysis optimising decision models
  6. 6. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY INCERTITUDE what is benefit or harm? how fair? which alternatives? whose values and societies?
  7. 7. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE surprise black swans novel agents, vectors, dynamics INCERTITUDE
  8. 8. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY political closure absence of participation, lack of democracy reductive models aggregative analysis `science-based policy institutional cultures insurance protection indicators / metrics IGNORANCE Power Closes Down to Risk illuminate specific microdynamics of closure
  9. 9. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE Opening Up Political Space for Debate definitive prevention
  10. 10. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE RISK knowledge about possibilities Methods: explore and experiment with ‘plural condition’ practices UNCERTAINTY precautionary appraisal
  11. 11. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods IGNORANCE RISK UNCERTAINTY knowledge about possibilities scenarios backcasting interactive modells MC mapping Q-method AMBIGUITY participatory deliberation
  12. 12. knowledge about likelihoods problematic UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE transdisciplinarity, social learning civic research, participatory monitoring, learning adaptation unproblematic unproblematic problematic AMBIGUITYRISK knowledge about possibilities
  13. 13. knowledge about likelihoods problematic UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE unproblematic unproblematic problematic AMBIGUITYRISK knowledge about possibilities
  14. 14. Theme Conventional views Emerging views Knowledge/power Science as arbiter, single source of authoritative knowledge; conflict, dissent and debate underplayed Multiple sources; plural and partial perspectives; conflict, dispute and dissent inevitable; negotiated understandings Risk and uncertainty Measurable risks and predictable outcomes; assumptions of ‘normal’, ‘standard’ patterns Uncertainty and ignorance; temporal variability and spatial diversity Development planning and policy Blueprint approach; linear policy model Adaptive planning, flexible, responsive, learning; non-linear policy: negotiation, adaptation, discretion key Livelihoods and resource management Single use, sectoral view of resources; resources as commodities; production focus Multiple users, complex and diverse livelihoods Institutions Static, rule-based, formal, clear boundaries, fixed, exclusivity Dynamic, overlapping, heterogeneous, socially-defined, emergent from social relations and practice, flexible Legal frameworks Formal legislation: fixed rules and procedures Evolving law in practice, multiple systems, legal pluralism Governance Separation of levels: local vs global; rules and formal institutions of governance Networks of actors, multi-level governance, messy interactions, negotiation of outcomes
  15. 15. From above and below….across • Combining sources of knowledge and understanding - ‘dismantling the divide’ between ‘expert’ and other knowledges • Rethinking modelling practices and cultures – combined approaches for negotiating uncertainty • Transdisciplinarity, participation, deliberation, co-production, social learning for sustainability • New institutions, new professionals – dealing with mess, brokers, tracking, mediators • Keep it complex, embracing uncertainty - plural and conditional advice for multiple pathways

×